ACUS11 KWNS 151702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151702
NCZ000-SCZ000-151900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1985
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...central and northeast South Carolina into southeast
North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151702Z - 151900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of locally damaging wind gusts appear
possible this afternoon. The areal coverage of the threat is
expected to remain too limited to warrant a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite imagery indicate a
deepening cumulus field and incipient thunderstorm development along
and ahead of a weak front settling south through southeast NC and
northern SC. Modification of the 12Z CHS sounding for current
surface conditions yields a moderate to strongly unstable
environment with MLCAPE of around 3000 J/kg. The air mass is quite
moist with PW of around 2.4 inches, suggesting the likelihood for
downdraft enhancement via water loading with an attendant risk for
damaging wind gusts. Vertical shear is quite weak, which will limit
the degree of storm organization and longevity, likely resulting in
an isolated areal coverage of the severe risk.

..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4m7y5kC_P0QDrHHt9fSk4vJp1lgT3XJKWYfvx7qwo21Nf3LIJ4m1912S3YME2pKTYfyshP8IFjSJpCqkc72lRF4y0eA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34228131 34648150 34968130 34778058 34677987 34647932
34687855 34697800 34657768 34067766 33687799 33627862
33357883 33167932 33778116 34228131

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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