ACUS11 KWNS 142014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142014
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1980
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of the southern Great Basin into the lower
Colorado River Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 142014Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms will
bring an isolated risk for damaging/severe wind gusts through this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of morning cloud cover, strong diurnal
heating and steepening low-level lapse rates amid low-to-mid 50s
dewpoints are supporting scattered thunderstorm development within a
corridor of greater buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) across portions
of the Great Basin and lower Colorado River Basin. Enhanced
southwesterly flow downstream of an upper low centered off of the
California coastline is contributing to modestly enhanced effective
shear of 25-35 kts, sufficient for modest updraft organization. In
conjunction with steep low-to-mid level lapse rates, high LCLs (2-3+
km), and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, an isolated risk for damaging/severe wind gusts may accompany developing thunderstorms
through this evening. This risk is expected to remain relatively
isolated. Thus, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9bQuZmP_mXECtbIHChauvCouC8uPwcz3jsbVcC1xfpzvOdq1sFimt4YdrqI-rMw0NIexsuVmqgQHgAjBlLhxfoeHDl4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON 38301327 37721304 37011287 36481286 35801298 35391314
34941342 34451386 34061425 33931463 33921497 34011517
34221541 34541562 35241593 36101614 36971610 37781603
38131585 38721542 38981491 39141448 38831367 38301327

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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