ACUS11 KWNS 142006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142005
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-142200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...the Front Range and western Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 142005Z - 142200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase across the area over the next several
hours, with some producing hail and strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows substantial moisture across
eastern CO and into southeast WY, with upper 50s to lower 60s F
dewpoints. Daytime heating continues, with weak easterly surface
winds maintaining the moist air mass.

Lapse rates are not particularly steep today, with warm temperatures
aloft, and lack of boundary layer mixing. However, MLCAPE is
increasing to around 2000 J/kg, and, 20 to 30 kt mid to high level
winds are resulting in effective deep layer shear of 30 kt. As such,
mixed storm modes are expected.

A strong cell has already developed over western Douglas County as
of 20Z, possibly producing hail. Additional activity will likely
fill in across the entire region through early evening, and some
cells may produce hail over 1.00" diameter. Some of the downdrafts
may produce strong to perhaps severe gusts, but an organized wind
threat is not anticipated.

..Jewell.. 08/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ap1Bp124Q-TR1uitEtN_7T72dQZzDOM2CB3aUF1MDYS6E8AzFDrIl1fblCQ80JzJKHQ6-QmsuI2vIFOKEkog4sCOZk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39040508 39570520 39910542 41030518 41400468 41570397
41340318 40790303 40060314 39190347 38940402 38810474
38840496 39040508

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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