Forum: Too Lazy BBS

MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 13:36:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131336
FFGMPD
ILZ000-IAZ000-131830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1033
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
935 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IA...Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131330Z - 131830Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong-to-severe storms racing east from
central IA may cause areas of flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar and GOES-19 satellite imagery show an
impressive MCC moving east through the heart of IA with a
progressive line of storms heading for eastern IA. Surface
observations show 1-hr rainfall totals topping 1.5" in towns just
south of Des Moines and localized totals approaching 2.0". These
storms have prompted a notable FLASH CREST maximum unit streamflow
response near Des Moines and areas along and south of I-80 in
southwest IA.

The MCC is heading into eastern IA and northern IL where MUCAPE is
500-1,000 J/kg and sfc-6km wind shear is >30 kts. The storms have
been supported by its favorable placement beneath the diffluent
right-entrance region of a strong 250mb jet streak. The MCC has
also been sustained by a SWrly 850mb jet that is currently
surpassing 30 kts just north of the Kansas City metro per RAP
mesoanalysis. This 850mb jet is intersecting the stationary front
located over northern MO and acting as a supportive trigger for
these storms. The RAP forecast shows this LLJ will steadily weaken
heading into late morning, and with less instability present over
northern IL, it is possible these storms lose some of their punch
as they move east.

Despite the potential weakening trend, this MCC is going to remain
a concern for additional redevelopment and the frontal boundary
will also remain a key player in additional storms later on today.
NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-40 cm soil moisture percentiles are ranging
between the 70-90th percentiles in eastern IA and northern, which
are a little more sensitive than soils were in southwest IA this
morning. The progressive storm motions will limit the areal extent
at risk of potential flash flooding, but given 1-hr FFGs in
eastern IA and northern IL in some cases are as low as 1.5", there
is the potential for additional flash flooding given the MCC's
history of producing >1.5" rainfall amounts. Poor drainage areas
and locations along I-80, where there is a greater concentration
of suburban communities and thus more hydrophobic surfaces, are
most prone to possible flash flooding.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5eYJjXTCXbic5qhgZs5af5agFbu0H1S37EmItc1Za_5AZsJz4N0PPWLmhWY-fZp1HqMuZcJunlzfG9Sx3pD-_bf0TtI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42489015 42458977 42428935 42358895 42188864
41948851 41668835 41258844 40858864 40558906
40508957 40509012 40519057 40539079 40589118
40709150 40809169 41049196 41449217 41909212
42109191 42349156 42429116 42459073

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 18:00:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131800
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-140000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1034
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Central Rockies & Central High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131800Z - 140000Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms flaring up over the Rockies are likely to
contain excessive rainfall rates that may approach 1.5"/hr. Storms
are likely to drift north and east into the High Plains of
Colorado and Wyoming. Flash flooding is possible, particularly
along complex terrain and burn scars.

DISCUSSION...A longwave trough along the West Coast is working in
tandem with upper-level ridging in the Southeast to direct
anomalous monsoonal moisture over the Central Rockies and High
Plains. Weak 850-500mb layer troughing is in place over the
Intermountain West, fostering sufficient upper-level ascent over
the region. PWs are above 1.0" in along the UT/CO border and east
of the Front Range, while PWs are still above 0.8" in the heart of
the CO Rockies. Regardless of the exact values, PWs throughout the
highlighted region are above the 90th climatological percentile
with some instances where PWs are approaching the 99th
climatological percentile this afternoon. Visible satellite is
also showing strong surface based heating over the CO Rockies and
several storms have developed. RAP forecasts show 1,000-1,500 J/kg
of SBCAPE will be available for developing storms in an
environment within an increasingly saturated 850-500mb layer.

Storms will flare up over the Rockies and drift north and east
thanks to 10-15 kts of SWrly 850-300mb mean flow aloft. Along the
Front Range, a stationary front will also act as a trigger for
additional storms later this afternoon, in addition to outflow
boundaries that propagate outward from afternoon thunderstorms.
With PWs hovering near 1.0" and sufficient instability aloft,
hourly rainfall rates approaching 1.5"/hr will be possible. These
rates could result in flash flooding over the rugged terrain of
the Central Rockies. East of the Front Range, PWs are forecast to
reach 1.25", and hourly rates would potentially surpass 1.5"/hr in
the High Plains later this afternoon. Given these factors, flash
flooding is possible this afternoon through portions of the
Central Rockies and High Plains this afternoon and potentially
into this evening. The I-25 corridor from Denver to Cheyenne are
also at-risk for potential flash flooding this afternoon.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5xTwQ6VRBUnSejJzQ0Ahw7cYIVH7RqDJXUqlt7cG7v33uuCJnUK64i9LDtUvj169ZIoBuC-kUHhq4fvl3wV3FDnbWm0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB...RIW...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 43400604 43390561 43240521 43030486 42700438
42310413 41740394 41220407 40620413 40130400
39680394 39200388 38880396 38470415 38050428
37800441 37430458 37180480 37060507 37060557
37060626 37070686 37080732 37210774 37320803
37500835 37760867 38100905 38350924 38640969
38930984 39390979 39760970 39930954 39990925
40230895 40550872 41300838 41790811 42200788
42660768 43010722 43290675 43370628

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 18:11:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131811
FFGMPD
UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-140000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1035
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Northern & Central NV...Eastern Central
California...Northwest Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131810Z - 140000Z

SUMMARY...Mountain circulation development expected along most
ranges today given solid dynamics setup across the region.
Filtering above average moisture into the Basin Range will allow
for convective cores to reach 1"/hr locally. Spots of 1-1.5"
within rugged/steep terrain may support widely scattered but
localized instances of flash flooding this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES West/East WV mosaic shows elongated closed low
across the central Valley of California elongating with a
vorticity center reaching into Mineral County NV that will
continue to slide northeast along the axis of the elongation
through the afternoon/evening. This will bring subtle but
sufficient CAA aloft to help further steep lapse rates in the
area. A downstream strengthening shortwave with nice broken
transverse banded convective elements along the northern
hemisphere of the circulation due to solid upper-level jet
divergence has also been within a persistent cool conveyor and
western branch of the TROWAL allowing for pooling deep layer
moisture, while a dry slot is forming over central NV.
Sub-tropical jet axis is also providing left exit divergence
across much of the state of NV but even modest divergence is
analzed back to the closed low. All this paints a picture for
solid dynamic support today across the region.

CIRA LPW also notes the pooled moisture in the low levels across
southern and east-central NV into UT bringing total PWats over
1-1.25" along/downstream; while .75-1" across the higher
elevations of the Basin/Range and pooling to a maxim near Reno
along the western slopes of the central Sierra Nevada. Building
SBCAPEs to 1000 J/kg over the Central & Southern Sierra and
1500-2500 J/kg at the nose of the dry slot, should help to have
scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop over the next few
hours. Clustering will be greater along the 700-500mb deformation
zone from Douglas to S Elko county though stronger cells will
likely be further south across Nye to White Pine county. Slow
cell motions are likely expected, especially initially due to
terrain upslope, but given orientation of the deformation zone and
the WSW to ENE cell motions, some repeating could be possible to
allow for localized greater accumulations toward late evening.
Rates of 1"/hr with some short-term higher bursts will result in
scattered to numerous but highly focused 1-1.5" totals throughout
the afternoon into evening.

Given most of the Basin Range has limited soils with
rocky/hard-pan surfaces, the intense short-term rates will likely
result in higher run-off and result in focused/localized instances
of flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7jzOoMul2j2bNClYC7A8gET9WjsJeZCW9xTz0T3UtKFEHm_6ioQThJUHjXU4wGXixuazMsJwPvl24wUAp2qYvot3xqI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LKN...REV...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41951379 41441294 39951236 39121292 38431423
37871535 37131666 36471747 36201826 36411878
38011939 38771979 39602029 40152039 40632005
41311846 41731698 41931542

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 18:29:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131829
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-140030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1036
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...East Central Arizona & Western New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131830Z - 140030Z

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms capable of producing up to 2"/hr
rainfall rates will likely cause areas of flash flooding,
especially in dry washes and areas with overly saturated soils.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a growing field of agitated
cumulus clouds from the Mogollon Rim on east into western NM and
southeast AZ. RAP mesoanalysis shows most of the highlighted
region will have >1.2" PWs to work with, which is around the 90th climatological percentile for mid-August. There is also no
shortage of MLCAPE for developing storms to tap into with >1,000
J/kg south of the Mogollon Rim and into southwest NM. MLCAPE will
be in the 500-1,000 J/kg range over the higher elevations of
east-central AZ and west-central NM. 850-300mb mean layer winds
are between 5-10 kts according to RAP mesoanalysis, suggesting
developing storms are unlikely to be progressive and could produce
excessive rainfall amounts in a short period of time.

Additional storms are likely to develop as outflow boundaries
emanating from initial afternoon storms propagate in all
directions. NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-10cm soil saturation percentiles are
quite high due to the multiple rounds of storms the region has
dealt with for several days, topping the 90th percentile in some
cases. Soils in the highlighted region will struggle to handle
much more than 1"/hr rates, and given the available instability
and moisture, hourly rates in southeast AZ in particular could
approach 2"/hr in some cases. Along with dry washes and typical
poor drainage areas, there are likely to be instances of flash
flooding once again this afternoon and evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_6HZv74O8YmCles7jhuGD94DScimYGk3NRCY_qxcfAY8fWzvzUdMDFDYanereQMD4XitKWYOcIl_6nIFkEpIjFlc-Lw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36191131 36131047 36040934 35900817 35640719
35190676 34680663 34070650 33480645 32840645
32170654 31980657 31620704 31280800 31200850
31080919 31030979 31011021 31141064 31501094
32151119 32991117 33601131 33991151 34231187
34421248 34771279 35451290 35881273 36131218

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 18:41:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131841
FFGMPD
COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-140030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1037
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern & Eastern Idaho...Northern
Utah...Western Wyoming...Southwest Montana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131840Z - 140030Z

SUMMARY...Strong developing dynamic environment with increasing
deep layer moisture will support scattered thunderstorms capable
of localized 1-1.25"/hr rates with focused 1-1.75" totals.
Possible incidents of localized flash flooding are possible,
especially in rocky steep slopes or near recent burn scars.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows an elongating mid to
upper-level trough extending from the older closed low in central
California through northern Nevada to near the UT/ID/WY corner.
Right entrance to broad 70kt jet core across much of central MT
combined with approaching nose of sub-tropical jet streak across S
NV is providing dual jet ascent pattern to strengthen a
shortwave/vorticity center over northeast NV. The combination of
dPVA and dual jet ascent/outflow pattern will help overcome
limited insolation, surface heating due to the low-level clouds
from said ascent pattern. Deep layer moisture per CIRA LPW, is
above average especially in the 700-500mb layer in the 95th to
99th percentile; pooled along the deformation zone coincident with
the 500mb trough axis in NE NV to NW WY. Low level moisture has
streamed northward over the last few days in the low levels as
well resulting in increased total PWat values of 1-1.25" across SE
ID into N UT (and even increasing above .75" in the high
elevations of NW and W WY).

MUCAPE will steadily increase with some mid-level steepening of
lapse rates with CAA aloft and proximity to approaching dry slot
over far W UT later this afternoon. Embedded narrow convective
cores have already developed in the enhancing moisture and dynamic
ascent across SE ID, but convergence will increase across the
northern edges of the strengthening shortwave to increase coverage
over SW to south-central ID as well. Breaks in clouds along the
northern periphery of the cloud bank may allow for subtle but
sufficient increase in SBCAPEs across the Sawtooth to Southern
Beaverhead Mtns in SW MT toward late afternoon. Cells will be
slow initially to move from the upslope of the terrain but a broad
southwest to northeast trend may allow for some areas of repeating
and with rates up to 1" in ID to NW WY, localized spots of
1.5-1.75" are possible through 00z. Further south, slightly
greater instability over N UT, but faster west to east motions may
result in similar spotty totals, but in a shorter term. Given
naturally low FFG across most of the area with steep/rocky
slopes...scattered incidents of flash flooding are possible,
especially near burn scars, but should be localized or focused in
areal coverage.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7BsBTUg6KJFuNmMgERxIG5JkkWzQIWCo5TXpTdsjnlKimCX0WDE91EzlSZzvxdHhmLTPKXCYOa6rzilmnYYEkWadpCE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...BYZ...GJT...MSO...PIH...RIW...SLC...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45631059 45480985 45150894 44590807 43800768
42680761 41300846 40440916 39860976 39451061
39631141 40421209 40851242 41571307 41931366
42021401 42091560 42471617 43581597 44421487
45141342 45541194

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 19:18:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131918
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-140000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1038
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...East Central Illinois...Central Indiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131915Z - 140000Z

SUMMARY...Small quick moving cluster maintaining vigor with solid
moisture flux convergence converting to 1.5-2" in 30-60 minutes as
it passes. Complex will start to reach compromised upper soil
profiles soon, potentially resulting in quick run-off and
localized flash flooding conditions

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um loop shows small MCC quickly moving
across central IL toward west-central IND with overshooting tops
reaching -70 to -75C. This was a slight uptick within the last
hour and rainfall efficiency increased with it as noted in
back-yard rainfall observations increasing from 1.25-1.35 to
1.5-2" after it passed Bloomington/Normal into eastern IL. The
cluster remains along, just north of the stationary front that
extends across southern IND into NW Kentucky near Louisville and
remains along the tight instability gradient with MLCAPEs hovering
around 2500-3000 J/kg downstream in central and southern IND.
Deep layer flow suggests a southeastward quick progression and
surface to 925mb winds are backed a bit along/north of the front
with lowered temperatures, so there are hints of ingestion of more
stable air may help to deflect the cluster further south-southeast
along the better unstable air. Visible imagery and RADAR denotes
a few mid-level cu/Tcu in this area but with weaker 925-850mb
winds veered to more westward at 10-15kts, convergence is being
driven on forward propagation than further inflow, suggesting
longer duration remains uncertain.

What is not uncertain is the cluster is moving quickly into areas
of recent saturation and flooding into the Southeast quarter of
IND into Northern KY/SW Ohio. NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm saturation
ratios are already rebounding with the 70-80% saturation reducing
toward 65-70% and MRMS Flash has completely removed any recent
surface flows beside the higher larger stem rivers. Still, with
ample moisture of 2-2.25" through depth/surface Tds in the
mid-70s; even forward propagation convergence should support
1.5-2" sub-hourly totals and given limited capacity downstream
(and urban centers of Indianapolis, Bloomington, or Cincinnati),
localized flash flooding will remain possible until the cluster
weakens, as suggested by the HRRR and ARW, or low level flow veers
and strengthens after 00z from the southwest.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8VvtzQfet_gdZ0peZb86UakrMObZhnTIe2VZwJ7A-XrjOCJ_ZAwBdmEMiPe9qtGEdvLeC8FjgW12lxd6-f58hToHqSk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40398748 40378698 40218584 39518431 38788415
38238476 38458595 39088754 39748843 40098848
40328814

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 19:47:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131947
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-140145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1039
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern NV...Southern UT...Northwest AZ...Adj
Southeast CA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131945Z - 140145Z

SUMMARY...More widely scattered but intense cores capable of quick
1-1.5"/hr and focused spots of 2-2.5" and likely result in widely
scattered incidents of flash flooding through late evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts core of 70+kt 200mb
sub-tropical jet is oriented SW to NE across S NV into W UT
generally providing some weak synoptic subsidence across the
region. CIRA LPW continues to show the warm conveyor belt is
utilizing the Lower Colorado River Valley to feed deep layer
moisture into western and central UT before broadening out a bit
through 700mb and includes the sub-tropical 500-700mb enhanced
moisture layer along and east of the upper-level jet core. This
has resulted in 1-1.25" in all but the highest elevations of the
central UT mountains and up to 1.5-1.7" in the Lower CO as far
north as S NV.

The weak but sufficient subsidence has also enhanced some low to
mid-level capping allowing instability to build through the Valley
into south-central UT where MLCAPEs are 1500-2000 J/kg. RAP shows
cap has been eroding and new development has be breaking out
across S UT into NW AZ with greater than normal initial updraft
strength with a few isolated cells as far SW as Table Mountain and
Clark Mountain Range on the CA/NV line. This is further supported
by weak 500mb dPVA for the weak trough extending southeast from
the closed low over central CA. As such, localized inflow will
be slightly enhanced and support 1.5"/hr rates even early. Deep
layer steering should allow for SW to NE cell motions, but
strengthening low level inflow from the River Valley may also
support favorable back-building and eventual southward propagation
of outflow boundaries that could allow for localized areas of
2-2.5". Still, overall coverage should be a bit more isolated in
nature given the broad scale subsidence, but any small deviation
in the sub-tropical jet could support some localized clustering
toward 00z. As usual, rocky, impermeable surfaces are likely to
shed most of the intense rain quickly and should result in widely
scattered to scattered incidents of flash flooding, with greater density/potential further upstream in the deeper moisture feed off
the East Pacific and more isolated to widely scattered downstream
into central and southeast UT.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6wvEv0S0xwvU-Q6kA417DY97lWqnFECjG4SuvdT7ANgyYZkqbJyGmT5tqq0iebcQZL0LyEScUNr7A3H_MsRL7gnUr00$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39541007 39130935 37850925 37360995 36871121
36271212 35561312 34721379 34401483 34751598
35321677 35921725 36651707 37641562 38901325
39351182

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 23:01:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 132301
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-140400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1040
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Northern & Eastern KY...Far Southwest
WV...Western VA...Far Northeast TN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 132300Z - 140400Z

SUMMARY...Downstream convection is expanding in coverage along
warm front with favorable orientation to support possible
repeating/training. Given recent saturated soils, as well as
rugged terrain, scattered 2-4" totals are likely to result in
localized flash flooding through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Main cirrus canopy of small MCS across IND continues
to fade and warm as the MCV continues to decouple with the surface
front. The MCV continues to track eastward across into
northern/central OH; while the surface front and instability
gradient remains well defined across eastern KY separating upper
80s over mid to upper 70s dewpoints from the cooler air that
remained under the cirrus canopy over central OH. However, the
MCS did produce a weak surface wave that helped to increase
cyclonic low level flow across the warm sector resulting in
slightly backed southwest surface to 925mb flow per VWP which
provided sufficient convergence along the now effective warm front
in eastern KY to destabilize with additional downstream convective
initiation even as far southeast as the WV/VA/KY border. MLCAPEs
remain over 3000 J/kg and ample 2.25"+ total PWats (mainly below
700mb) will continue to support solid rainfall production with
rates of 2-2.5"/hr possible.

VWP and RAP analysis still continue to show 850-600mb WNW to NW
steering flow generally parallel to the boundary supporting a
corridor for potential training repeating. With the weakening of
the MCS, cell motions are slowing a bit, but this also reduced the
convergence along the leading edge of the convection reducing flux
and rainfall efficiency. However, this does allow for increased
residency and the downstream scattered cells along the frontal
zone will have even weaker steering flow for higher duration. As
such, with repeating and eventual merger by the old MCS
convection, a streak or two of 2-3"+.

Compromised upper soils are saturated with 55-70% ratio per NASA
SPoRT and FFG while rising slowly, remains below 1.5"/hr and less
than 2"/3hr, even with spots of 1.5"/3hr along the NW to SE axis
in eastern KY through the south-central Appalachians of S WV/W VA
and NE TN. As such, exceedance is probable, even with narrower
updrafts reducing the width of the training corridor and so
scattered incidents of flash flooding are considered likely
through the remainder of the evening into the early overnight
period. However, conditions are expected to improve with reducing
instability from loss of daytime heating into the overnight hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4gZjrBXxbR4w2GXIUzHy3eaoM92ei3bzu7JFb2QDymBrgJmCNXzAdA9KGTW7-h7EDhavvIUaFM_Nqm1NeX0OOv5_yAs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38938435 38588308 38298240 37828165 37218146
36718165 36258230 36418346 37198450 37618487
37828497 38428531 38828507

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 23:30:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 132330
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-140500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1041
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Central to Northeast NV...Northern UT...Far
Southwest WY...Far East-Central CA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132330Z - 140500Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered localized risk of flash flooding
continues through the early overnight hours. Repeat/Training
cells along deep layer confluence axis may result in localized
additional .75-1.25" totals.

DISCUSSION...Strong dynamic forcing continues across the Great
Basin, as closed low continues to elongate and shear northeastward
out of the central Sierra Nevada with downstream vorticity centers
dotted across N NV into SE ID along the cyclonic rotor (left exit)
of the sub-tropical jet that remains 70-80kts from the California
Bight through northeast NV/N UT. This continues the strong
divergence and dPVA pattern from the Reno/Carson City toward Elko,
however, much of area along the Sierra Nevada Range has been mixed
over and a line of scattered convection is becoming progressive
across N Pershing county to SE Churchill into NW Nye county; while
a few lingering but narrowing cells remain along the the peaks of
the Sierra Nevada as remaining moist/unstable air remains
convergent through upslope processes on the backside of the the
upper-low.

RAP 850-700 moisture flux convergence is maximized along/ahead of
the developing line with flanking line convergence across
Inyo/Esmeralda county, with some southerly inflow out of the Lower
Colorado Valley bring Total PWats toward .8-1". SBCAPEs remain
about 1000-1500 J/kg from central NV toward N UT, allowing for
progressive convective line into generally confluent steering
flow. Forward progression should limit overall totals but quick
bursts of up to .75" and repeating nature may allow for streaks of
1-1.25" totals in less than 3 hours. This remains supportive of
localized but widely scattered incidents of possible flash
flooding to occur, given naturally low FFG and intense rates on
hard-pan/rocky grounds.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9a650myKVvC8K4lgLS1S37OZ0KgPYBxYNaT_kUXDjkhSihnt-C25BMu5Yqz2m-z2yJqlOi2F1qrhnuY6HDCub7sqSsk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...RIW...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42011050 41780971 41131001 40131061 39211294
37471598 37051673 36871790 37571874 38331946
38991971 40111877 40881766 41181651 41541353

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 00:12:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140011
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-140605-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1042
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Eastern CO...Southeast WY...Northwest KS...Far
Southwest NEB...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140010Z - 140605Z

SUMMARY...Scattered incidents of flash flooding continue in
mountains for a few more hours, while High Plains convection
congeals into a larger complex before advancing northeastward
later overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows strengthening
south-southwesterly upper-level flow continues to slowly advance
eastward through the Four Corners region with modest upper-level
ridging starting to tilt further northeastward with weakly
diffluent flow across the Colorado High Plains. As such, a few
scattered developing thunderstorms remain in the southwesterly
moisture stream from the Southwest utilizing the remaining
instability while still having easterly upslope flow from
additional low level moist air north of stationary front banked up
through the terrain. Scattered overshooting tops cooling to below
-60C extend from S WY to Fremont county, CO, utilizing the
remaining 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPEs in the region. Surface Tds in
the mid to upper 50s even through the Front Range and total Pwats
remaining around 1-1.25" and convergence along both sides of the
range will continue to support 1-1.25"/hr rain rates as they
slowly move off into the Plains.

However, the scattered thunderstorms in the High Plains,
particularly near and north of the strengthening surface low in SE
CO are further strengthening with rapid cooling and overshooting
tops from Elbert to Bent county. The strong cyclonically
convergence low level flow through main steering depth (below
500mb) is also helping to converge the clusters toward a upscale
growing complex over the next few hours. As such, merging
updrafts with deepening moisture flux environment will start to
hourly rates of 1.5-1.75"/hr. As the height-falls continue to
push eastward aloft, Southern Plains LLJ will start to back more
southerly and the surface cyclone will start to lift northeastward
along the front enhancing deep layer moisture convergence (as
deeper low level moisture is north of the boundary) bringing total
PWats into the 1.5-1.75" range. 20-25kts of low level
northeasterly flow will help to slowly propagate the complex
northeast with increasing rainfall efficiency toward 1.75-2"/hr
occasionally, reaching 2.25+/hr locally where mergers occur in the
evolving complex. As such, overall totals will be highly variable
within the complex across eastern CO into NW KS with average
1-1.5", dotted with 2-3"+ localized maxima. Given intensity of
the rates in mergers and totals of 2-3" this will be in the range
of FFG values that also range from 1.5 to over 3" depending on
proximity to ridges/river valleys and sandier soils. Overall
soils have been dry, so while most areas totals will be
beneficial, those quick bursts in mergers will more likely result
in localized exceedance and possible localized flash flooding
through the early overnight period.

A second cluster may form out of individual cells across SE WY,
there is more uncertainty given lower moisture and direct
northeasterly moist/unstable inflow, but 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPEs
and 1.5" total PWats suggest cells could maintain/survive before
drifting southeast into the deeper moisture. So have included the
area in the MPD for possible incident or two of localized flash
flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_3m8xrRv7SQ9Y93jIZtkJRHe33lhGpI7qw42ZOdFYpRDa384dVbpVfHaNVXsgKpUi5HUJZwLPWJGw5-MEKjsSajlSfc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41920480 41820423 41400263 40800129 40170053
39240071 38410189 38000255 38060349 38500425
38370536 38970560 40270582 41610583

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 02:33:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140232
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-140830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1043
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Northern IL...Central and Northern IN...Western
OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140231Z - 140830Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing
further and expanding in coverage over the next several hours.
This will foster an increasing threat for flash flooding and
especially with rather sensitive antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery is showing a
gradual uptick in convection along an elevated instability
gradient situated north of a stationary front across the Middle MS
and OH Valley. A gradual increase in warm air advection/isentropic
ascent over the front is expected over the next several hours as
an uptick in a southwest low-level jet takes place downwind of
modest shortwave energy ejecting out across portions of the
central Plains and Midwest.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg coupled with PWs of near 2
inches will work in tandem with as much as 40 to 50 kts off
effective bulk shear to promote at least some organization to the
elevated convective axis, with a general upscale growth of
activity expected down to the east-southeast with time.

This will facilitate areas of northern IL through central and
northern IN and western OH seeing the greatest potential for heavy
convective rainfall going deep into the overnight hours. The
rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 2 inches/hour with the
stronger storms, and this will be supported by at least some
uptick in moisture transport overnight via some nocturnal
enhancement to the low-level jet.

Cell-training concerns will pose a threat once again for excessive
rainfall totals, and the latest HREF consensus would support some
localized 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals by late tonight. The 18Z
HREF shows an axis of high FFG exceedance probabilities in
particular across eastern IL and central IN (40 to 70 percent)
where FFGs are already fairly low due to the recent rainfall
impacts of the last several days.

As a result, the threat for new areas of flash flooding will be
increasing with time. Locally significant/dangerous areas of flash
flooding will be possible by later tonight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5pt2YV4U8HoNl-05WhBmUCtWu-Q2b1eIFk31KsAmi2na-ZFlfisvw0vRJtSNB218XQY59pWbq-yCdnuXTQ4tKkqhJvI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42178975 41868831 41558694 41198566 40758433
40138369 39388414 39498575 39918752 40368905
40999056 41689089 42089062

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 04:51:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140451
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-141030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1044
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Southern OH...Western WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140449Z - 141030Z

SUMMARY...New rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be expected
locally going through the overnight hours. High rainfall rates and
wet antecedent conditions will support a likelihood for some
additional areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES satellite and radar data shows heavy
showers and thunderstorms redeveloping across areas of southern
OH, with this activity attempting to advance into western WV. The
activity is generally developing and/or persisting in response to
broader west to southwest flow advancing across the OH Valley,
with a resulting warm air advection pattern driving the eastward
transport of moisture and instability.

Multiple instability gradients are noted across the region, with
one notable one over southern OH and into western WV where MUCAPE
values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg are noted. PWs are quite high with
values of 2.0 to 2.25 inches, and this environment is supporting
rainfall rates as high as 2 inches/hour with the stronger
convective cores.

The latest hires model CAMs are not overly wet here overnight, but
with the current convective trends and cooling cloud tops,
short-term upscale growth of convection is expected. Rainfall
totals may reach into the 2 to 4+ inch range going through dawn,
and this will be supported by the alignment of the convection with
the deeper layer steering flow which will support cell-training
concerns.

Given the very sensitive antecedent conditions and current
radar/satellite trends, at least scattered areas of additional
flash flooding will be likely over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8x57lbDIjwrcvp9EtitAtDCM0rsyF4mtlFcsRyEwEzFpuvxml5W0PxY5WZVP_5tGd9B1Ve5bOpDVfWYBV2Z4gmBbUEc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40348343 40248217 39588097 38938043 38268041
37848099 37968182 38378260 39018366 39538401

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 07:32:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140732
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-141330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1045
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern NE...Central/Southern IA...Far Western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140730Z - 141330Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible through early this morning from multiple rounds of heavy
showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a strong
MCS lifting northeastward across south-central NE with very cold
convective tops as low as -80C. This convective complex is
generally progressive in nature, and is situated north of a
frontal zone draped across the central Plains and Lower MO Valley.

Shortwave energy advancing east-northeast over the top side of the
subtropical ridge over the southern Plains is interacting with the
nose of rather strong instability gradient oriented up across
southeast NE which is also seen extending east across central and
southern IA and into far western IL. A southwest 30 to 40+ kt
low-level jet is overrunning the aforementioned frontal zone and
is being channeled out ahead of the MCS over south-central NE.

Additional areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are developing
across western IA currently as the nose of stronger warm air
advection and corresponding isentropic ascent crosses this region.

The latest hires multi-model consensus suggests that multiple
rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms may impact areas of
eastern NE through especially central and southern IA through
early this morning. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour will be
expected, and with locally repeating rounds of convection, some 2
to 4 inch rainfall totals will be possible over the next several
hours.

Antecedent conditions across the region are rather moist with
rather low FFG values. This suggests the additional rainfall
threat this morning may produce some isolated to scattered areas
of flash flooding. The more urbanized areas will be at greatest
risk for potential impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!49wK9p5lnvKls_P2EjI58UQHoI_mB8hiGdim_wfa2yEltupG10lLmiL5xdofM589TiHI_UoEWvvTOUPldL8Gc4-dDNQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42829493 42629226 41789045 40689078 40659261
40589526 40169797 40399910 40989943 42099814

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 08:36:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140835
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-141430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1046
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Far Southeast IA...Central IL...Central and
Southern IN...Central and Southern OH...Northeast KY...Western WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140833Z - 141430Z

SUMMARY...An expansive axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue this morning across sizable portions of the OH
Valley. Numerous areas of flash flooding will continue over the
next several hours, with locally significant/dangerous flash
flooding impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a large
area of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting far southeast IA
through central IL, central IN and western OH. The overall
convective footprint remains generally confined to an elevated
instability gradient situated north of a stationary front across
the Middle MS and OH Valley region.

A nose of stronger low-level jet energy (30+ kts) is seen VWP data
riding up across northeast MO and into areas of central and
western IL and overrunning this boundary. Over the last hour, some
very strong overshooting top activity has been noted here with
cloud top temperatures as cold as -80C. Isentropic ascent
continues to extend downstream across central IN and western OH,
and over the next few hours, this will help sustain an axis of
heavy showers and thunderstorms here as well.

MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are in place, with the greatest
values noted over central IL and west-central to southwest IN. PWs
are also quite high and indicative of a tropical environment with
values of 2.0 to 2.25 inches. This will support convection with
extreme rainfall rates capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour for
at least the next few hours.

Developing cold pool activity over areas of central IN through
western OH may help the eastern flank of the convective axis to
settle more to the southeast in time this morning, allowing for
more of a west-northwest to east-southeast convective orientation
that will be conducive for additional cell-training. Already as
much as 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen over the last 6 hours
across parts of eastern IL and central IN based on the latest MRMS
data, with numerous areas of flash flooding ongoing.

The latest multi-model hires guidance suggests that the overall
convective mass should begin to weaken after 12Z (7AM CDT), but
with the level of instability in place across the Lower OH Valley
near this front and the aforementioned low-level jet arriving from
the Middle MS Valley, it is possible that the ongoing MCS activity
may last longer than the model guidance supports. This may
especially be the case across western and central IL down through
south-central IN.

Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches will be possible this
morning before convection eventually begins to wane. Numerous
areas of flash flooding will continue, and some locally
significant/dangerous flash flooding impacts will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9rcC0l8apmR5denQvHasFmidaMm9ddRw56ao7oKTwRSiccZIPEKTZUqhajF_Ejetfsy7xUFirMQ2VBCQ2I4-Yc40ReU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK... LOT...LSX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41428970 40988729 40878580 40918360 40618161
39778057 38718055 38278071 37718131 37718288
38388503 38858782 39419022 40179145 40939156
41389089

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 12:08:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141208
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-141800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1047
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
806 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Central & Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141200Z - 141800Z

SUMMARY...Increasing westerly low-mid level winds and healthy
moisture advection will lead to developing thunderstorms along the
central and southern Appalachians this morning and persist into
the early afternoon. Flash flooding is likely, especially in areas
with highly sensitive soils and along rugged terrain.

DISCUSSION...11Z surface analysis showed a long stationary front
positioned over the OH Valley and stretching as far east as the
DelMarVa Peninsula. Doppler Radar and GOES-19 satellite depicted
an MCV over OH that was responsible for a cluster of potent
thunderstorms in southern Ohio that were making their way east
towards WV. The environment is already ripe for storms that are
likely to contain efficient warm rain processes. PWs are above
1.5" for just about the entire highlighted area, and PWs in
southern OH are topping 2". This highly saturated air-mass in OH
is being directed east within a strengthening area of westerly
850-500mb winds, which are oriented perpendicular to the mountain
range. This means better upslope enhancement in an environment
that is weakly capped and will support more additional
thunderstorms along windward facing slopes of the central and
southern Appalachians.

Developing thunderstorms will have between 500-1,000 J/kg of
MUCAPE at their disposal and 1000-500mb mean RH values are >80%.
As daytime heating increases, surface based heating will be
stronger farther south towards the Smokeys where early glimpses
from visible satellite imagery shows breaks in the cloud cover,
particularly farther upstream in eastern KY, southwest VA, and
eastern TN. In addition, freezing levels are over 15,000ft in some
cases with warm cloud layers up to 13,000ft deep. Soils are also
fairly saturated ahead of these storms with FLASH CREST soil
saturation showing between 50-75% along the Appalachians and some
isolated areas over 75%.

The blend of increasing upslope flow, anomalous PWs that will
approach 2" later this morning, and sufficient instability is
likely to result in storms that contain excessive rainfall rates
over 2"/hr in some cases. 1-hr FFGs for the majority of the
central and southern Appalachians are <1.5", and 3-hr FFGs are
even more concerning, especially in southern WV, SW VA, and
eastern TN with <2" FFGs. Storms will persist into the early
afternoon with potentially more storms later this afternoon. Flash
flooding is likely today in the central and southern Appalachians
with rugged/steep terrain most at-risk.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6d75aoE-gOsuI6le3CsAV31hucaT4vsGpoz3lX1Q7HMJVaKXmHUMLybJSTRbcTAzlfQUKvtjIcJ53O5xhrD_ZwHZVfQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39748023 39717992 39687944 39637923 39477899
39097903 38457928 37807967 37508009 37018053
36628110 36128163 35628211 35518254 35608324
35848348 36328325 36748290 37058253 37488190
37748130 38068078 38758048 38998046 39208047
39528048 39668044

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 13:48:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141348
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-141930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1048
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
947 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern NE...Northeast KS...Northwest
MO...Western IA...Southeast SD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141345Z - 141930Z

SUMMARY...The flash flood threat continues today as an MCV
embedded within anomalous moisture aloft is likely to produce
additional thunderstorms. Additional flash flooding is likely late
morning and into early afternoon as storms potentially produce
rainfall rates up to 3"/hr.

DISCUSSION...GOES-19 satellite imagery and Doppler Radar show a
compact MCV over eastern NE making its way northeast towards the
Missouri River. The axis of heaviest rainfall is where the best
850mb WAA ahead of the MCV is intersecting a cooler airmass over
the Upper Mississippi Valley. RAP mesoanalysis shows PWs between
2.0-2.2" throughout much of the region, which is topping the 99th climatological percentile in many cases. The biggest question lies
in the available instability. Plenty of cloud debris from
overnight thunderstorms is helping to limit surface based heating
initially, but little-to-no capping inversion aloft and the
assistance from the MCV to the west will result any increase in
MUCAPE to support additional thunderstorms this morning and into
this afternoon.

The 12Z HRRR shows that as initial thunderstorm activity
diminishes over northern IA this morning, new storms will flare up
on the eastern and northern flanks of the MCV. Farther south,
where SWrly low-level inflow is interacting with the analyzed
surface front in northeast KS and northern MO, storms may
re-develop in an environment that is likely to see MUCAPE rise to

1,000 J/kg. The copious amounts of moisture (some area-averaged

soundings are saturated as high up as 300mb), increase in elevated
instability, and mid-level support from the MCV is likely to spawn
new thunderstorms that contains hourly rainfall rates as high as
3"/hr. 1-hr FFGs are lowest in eastern NE and along I-80 in
western IA where some FFGs are <1.5" in some cases.

Storms pivoting around the northern and eastern flanks of the MCV
could be the most efficient rainfall producers as they have not
only the anomalous moisture aloft, but also >30 kts of sfc-3km
vertical wind shear, which could help sustain new thunderstorm
activity through early afternoon. Additional flash flooding is
likely in the MO River Valley and as far east as central IA today.
Areas with more saturated soils and poor drainage spots are most
at-risk.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-ueE4UvoAZDFmteQ1EYUpXjSlKuTffnZqd-oJje1Vmqsatthx2kCU2MvrhLVv7gZS-156wrBTbQjfgYZ8b1wWBvsm68$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43249571 43089449 42929372 42389276 41479263
40789309 40529382 40299446 39869520 39679570
39219649 39519725 40259717 40539786 40739823
41209834 41499833 41879813 42549763 43119684

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 14:28:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141428
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-142025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1049
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1026 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Northern AZ...Southern UT...Far Southern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141425Z - 142025Z

SUMMARY...Robust thunderstorms tracking over areas with saturated
and sensitive soils could lead to areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES West shows a strong subtropical jet oriented
SSW-NNE over the Lower CO River Valley this morning. The 12Z VEF
sounding showed 250mb winds of 80 kts, which is above the 90th
climatological percentile and right around the max moving average
for mid-August. The jet streak overhead is providing excellent
diffluence overhead while the atmosphere remains weakly capped and
fairly saturated. Storms developed over the Grand Canyon County,
the northern tier of the Mogollon Rim, and as far south just east
of Lake Havasu. Storm motions should be progressive, although near
uniform SSWrly flow aloft is also contributing to upshear Corfidi
vectors that are around 10 kts. Some backbuilding and training
could occur as a result, particularly in areas where higher
terrain is orthogonal to the SSWrly flow within the 850-300mb
layer.

PWs are forecast to range between 1.0-1.25" in the highlighted
area, and MLCAPE should rise up to ~1,000 J/kg over the Lower CO
River Valley by this afternoon. With the presence of the jet
streak aloft fostering upper-level ascent, unusually high vertical
wind shear paired with above normal moisture will support hourly
rainfall rates that could surpass 1.5"/hr in the more intense
storms. Localized rainfall totals over 3" could occur, especially
in areas where training thunderstorms unfold. Soils remains
unusually saturated for much of the at-risk area as well with NASA
SPoRT-LIS showing >90th climatological percentile soil saturation
within the 0-10cm layer. Flash flooding is possible today with
those areas sporting saturated soils, as well as in areas with
rugged terrain, slot canyons, and dry washes.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ZJwEaYh4Xqizxf6_0Hamf4d0kqU7xYXNSTfIu4RwFCM47bDHc1UNboqkD3oxT6UKeWZSy_H9t27W9L8c0Pbwhk5ewU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38891286 38841171 38321113 37331088 36361100
35621094 34791141 34391235 34401355 34361396
34431423 34691436 34991453 35261464 35711468
36591460 37511426 38391377

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 17:40:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141740
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-142345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1050
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
139 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Western MT...Eastern ID...Western WY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141745Z - 142345Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over rugged terrain may cause
flash flooding in areas containing sensitive soils (high
saturation and burn scars). Rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr are
possible in the more intense cells this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES West visible satellite imagery and Doppler Radar
are showing a bubbling field of congested cumulus and some
cumulonimbus clouds as of 1715Z. As daytime heating continues,
instability will continue to rise, with RTMA already indicating

200 J/kg of MLCAPE rises over the last few hours. The region

remains beneath an unusually strong 250mb jet streak that aiding
in producing high sfc-6km shear values (>30 kts) in far eastern ID
and western MT. There is also anywhere from 0.75-1.0" PWs that is
available for developing storms, or values that are above the 90th climatological percentile.

Portions of the Bitterroots on east towards the Tetons received
anywhere from 1-2" of rainfall yesterday, which has allowed for
some locations to see an increase in soil saturation. Parts of the
Upper Snake Region on east into western WY now have 0-10cm soil
moisture percentiles above the 90th percentile per NASA SPoRT-LIS.
Combining with atmospheric setup with abnormally saturated soils
does raise the potential for flash flooding this afternoon. 12Z
HREF probabilistic guidance shows low-to-moderate chances (30-50%)
for 6-hr QPF topping 10-yr ARIs from eastern ID to as far north as
the Absaroka, suggesting the potential for rainfall rates to be
heavy enough to prompt flash flood concerns. Hourly rainfall rates

1"/hr are achievable in this setup, and could approach 1.5"/hr in

the most intense storms. The areas most at-risk for flash flooding
are areas that were hit by storms yesterday, as well as burn scars
and locations along rugged terrain.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7QbbCkWEWsZoRxhaYgRxtHiez275SU0bnLO-Xao6vFTWQzZFSEwUZccS5VQwOqLk-vBw-1pWYdtMYkubnCVYenTy8gQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...MSO...PIH...RIW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46501076 46301010 45590956 45200952 44360946
43471005 42571136 42131227 42081280 42251332
42631351 43071344 43341352 43461366 43551382
43681414 43951447 44321472 44921462 45391426
45801385 46151332 46341272 46461176

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 18:38:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141838
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-150040-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1051
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Central Rockies & Central High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141840Z - 150040Z

SUMMARY...Another round of thunderstorms containing hourly
rainfall rates up to 2"/hr are expected. Flash flooding is
possible in areas containing more sensitive soils (high saturation
and burn scars) and within more urbanized communities.

DISCUSSION...GOES-19 shows a growing field of congested cumulus
over the Central Rockies while thunderstorms have flared up over
the Sangre De Cristo farther south. The region is seeing strong
surface based heating with RAP mesoanalysis showing between
400-800 SBCAPE increases over the last three hours. SBCAPE along
and east of the I-25 corridor is forecast to surpass 2,000 J/kg
this afternoon, providing plenty of instability east of the Front
Range. PWs are also over 0.75" in the Rockies while increasing to

1.0-1.25" in the central High Plains. These PWs throughout the

at-risk region remain above the 90th climatological percentile.

The region was hit by scattered strong storms yesterday, which has
raised soil moisture content over the central Rockies and from the
Palmer Divide on north along the I-25 corridor to Denver and
Cheyenne. NASA SPoRT-LIS shows 0-10cm soil moisture values that
are above the 90th climatological percentile, particularly along
the Front Range. Latest 1-hr FFGs remain quite low in the Central
Rockies on east along the I-25 corridor, the Palmer Divide, and
along the I-70 corridor in eastern CO. 1-hr FFGs in these areas
are <1.5"/hr with some localized areas under 1.0". For areas where
repeating storms may occur, some portions of the Front Range have
3-hr FFGs <1.5". These low FFGs highlight the sensitivities in
portions of the at-risk region. Given these factors, flash
flooding is possible again this afternoon and early evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6-9GzSpJss4NccSiHr5_SuZbgssWYxH7TDi4os4qYVVnjHgUgOF_fjslL18x6LbklmyN2CxtM2wfk6DLtab8tv89W2Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41610572 41560504 41520471 41360451 40960453
40510445 40110431 39490412 38930386 38230392
37590398 37240418 36880454 36700474 36390501
36020521 35790546 35890593 36500623 36890629
37240693 37470730 38240751 38820755 39380729
40190727 40620712 40880693 41220655 41440615

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 19:13:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141912
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-150010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1052
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, western
Virginia, northwestern North Carolina, far northeast Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141910Z - 150010Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will pose a flash flood risk
across the central Appalachians and vicinity through at least
23Z/7p eastern.

Discussion...A gradual increase in convective coverage was noted
across the discussion area over the past hour or so, with most
storms focused in one band over southern WV and eastern KY (from
near Beckley, WV to near Lexington, KY). The storms are embedded
on the southern fringe of appreciable flow aloft (30-40 knot
westerly mean steering flow), and while most storms were fairly
progressive, areas of 1.5-2 inch PW values were enabling heavier
rain rates approaching 1 inch/hr in a few spots. Ground
conditions are wet in a few spots, and with areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr
FFG thresholds, it appears that a few areas of flash flooding are
possible over the next few hours.

The extent of flash flood potential over the next few hours will
depend on convective coverage and degree of mergers. CAMs suggest
further upscale growth of the southern WV band of storms with
southeastward extent. These storms should also reach higher PW
values east of the Appalachians, though FFG thresholds also
increase with eastward extent especially east of
I-81/Blacksburg/Roanoke. Instances of flash flooding are possible
on a scattered basis, particularly in low-lying areas and
sensitive terrain. Backbuilding/upstream development in central
to eastern Kentucky also appears possible through the afternoon,
which could prompt another concentrated axis of flash flood
potential there (Lexington vicinity eastward to Jackson) through
23Z as well.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ACVZGIUyj-hei82IkeHpanpWsLSQVvCZPJSQ8hone9-YguKVifdsqFkJeIh6KsrlCLXeD4-x4YyJc9JiZf1zXcxIuI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38588440 38388150 38477926 37417891 36687913
36048022 36108285 36668412 37478520

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 20:51:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142050
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-150249-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1053
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of far west Texas and New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142049Z - 150249Z

Summary...Isolated instance of flash flooding are possible -
particularly near sensitive burn scars and terrain - through
03Z/9p mountain.

Discussion...Areas of thunderstorms are developing amid a very
warm/moist airmass in place across the discussion area. Weak
steering flow aloft (less than 10 kt) was contributing to
slow/erratic storm motions amid areas of 1-1.3 inch PW values,
supporting spots of locally heavy rainfall. Objective
analyses/RAP model and satellite data indicate the presence of a
weak mid-level shortwave trough over south-central New Mexico that
was likely contributing to the increase in convective coverage
along with strong surface heating/insolation. Spots of 1 inch/hr
rain rates were being observed per MRMS on an isolated/spotty
basis, and while these rates weren't exceeding FFG thresholds
areawide, their proximity to locally sensitive terrain and burn
scars suggests the presence of isolated flash flood potential in
this environment.

Most storms are diurnally driven, and the overall meso- to
synoptic scale environment should change very little over the next
several hours. Expect very isolated instances of flash flooding
to remain possible through around 03Z/9p mountain time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Sg77Qj_BNsVcxgocGQrn2OoDDeolHzX468HGquDbMYpNQNZGGezGFEvzgzxYVRJqeKXdRVjLO4Fdp0MKU2qwgm8BSk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35590804 35590718 35280603 35420514 35390475
35270441 34360391 33170368 31970333 30710295
29620297 29120321 29400396 30960542 31640666
31910796 31560831 31670872 33640907 35210891

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 21:19:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142118
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-150317-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1054
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
517 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...eastern Nevada, much of Utah, and northern
Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142117Z - 150317Z

Summary...Areas of slow-moving thunderstorms continue to pose a
flash flood risk across the discussion area. This risk will
likely continue through at least 03Z/9p mountain.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area. Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms have caused several
areas of impacts across far southwestern Utah today. While that
immediate area has experienced a brief lull in convective
activity, surrounding locales continue to experience locally heavy
rainfall (exceeding 1 inch/hr per MRMS) due to slow-moving cells
anchored in modest south-southwesterly steering flow aloft. Cells
are occasionally exhibiting right-moving character, which has led
to local backbuilding and enhancement of rain rates in a few
areas. Rain rates were exceeding FFG at times, and moderate MRMS
Flash responses were also noted -- likely suggestive of local
runoff/flash flooding.

Observations/models are all suggestive that the overall pattern
will change very little through 03Z/9p mountain, with plenty of
insolation and low-level moist advection continuing to provide
sufficient instability for continued thunderstorm development.
Storms may undergo a weakening trend after dark/03Z as low-levels cool/stabilize. Scattered instances of flash flooding are
expected between now and then.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8O3I7ak5qBdk2qyNJSjAB64sn8CWI7Hio4W2VMqV0duz-TKd722QrizSuyYcz_1YsFFvwzMZQPRUuY5CShiEQlRuQfE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40801038 39180951 35980939 34121006 33991349
35911573 36941618 38601629 39491642 40241476
40601191

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 22:25:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142225
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-150323-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1055
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...central/eastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142223Z - 150323Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible - particularly in
urban areas from I-95/Richmond southeastward toward Norfolk and
Virginia Beach through 03Z/11p eastern.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were making steady
southeastward progress from higher terrain of western Virginia and
currently extend from near Charlottesville to South Boston. The
storms were embedded in appreciable west-northwesterly steering
flow aloft, contributing to storm motions of 20-30 knots. Despite
these motions, storms were migrating toward a very high PW airmass
(2-2.3 inch), resulting in very high precipitation potential (and
recent estimates of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates per MRMS near CHO). On
their current track, storms will reach more urbanized (and locally
sensitive) areas of Richmond Metro southeast through Petersburg,
Norfolk, and Virginia Beach in the 2330Z-0200Z (730p-10p eastern)
timeframe. Should these cells maintain their current orientation
and intensity, a few areas of urban flash flooding are possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8C16gxByEX1GYTsQLEow6vCBBpWGR0rF6hxrfq9iXxelq2-I7sGP72TgIYS3uWJ7-LZ_gXF6mBsSg0baJQzpY0yyTAY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38577803 38417691 37587566 36737552 36527642
36567793 36917867 38457884

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 00:37:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150036
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150535-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1056
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
836 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...central/northeastern Colorado, southwestern
Nebraska, northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150035Z - 150535Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will gradually spread
northeastward out of Colorado into portion of the High Plains
through 05Z/11p mountain.

Discussion...Areas of scattered thunderstorm activity have evolved
into a series of slow-moving clusters and cells producing
occasional 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates. Recent convective trends
show a couple of forward-propagating segments between Akron/Limon
and near Oshkosh, with upstream cells focused primarily along
remnant outflows from prior convection. The storms are embedded
in very weak mid-level steering flow (less than 10 knots), with
1-1.5 inch PW values (highest with eastward extent) supporting
ongoing, locally heavy rainfall. Rain rates are exceeding FFG
thresholds at times (around 1 inch/hr in many areas), and a few
impacts have been reported near Denver, Cheyenne, and north of
Pueblo.

The downstream, airmass across much of the discussion area
contains a pool of undisturbed instability (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE)
and only weak convective inhibition. Trends suggest that ongoing
activity will continue to slowly propagate northeastward across
the discussion area, gradually reaching the CO/KS/NE border region
over the next 2-3 hours. As it does, locally heavy rain rates
will remain likely given continued slow movement and propagation
toward even more moisture (1.7+ inch PW). FFG thresholds are
slightly higher with eastward extent (around 1.5 inch or more),
suggestive that the ongoing flash flood risk may gradually become
more isolated with time. Storms will take some time to respond to
nocturnal low-level stabilization, and should persist through at
least 05Z/11p mountain time especially where upscale growth has
occurred.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4MZacy7pZNanZQZOELZFQ8xNu6hRwOnXtyg3dIuNkr5TFe1SkJ4qUs0vnEh0rWJ7fzimdu0aaGDGTI1Itmxr_ynBw5E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42160208 41240114 40150099 38710120 38060175
38440405 39980479 41060395 41940386

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 02:51:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150251
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-150830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1057
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1050 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern CA...Far Southern NV...Northwest AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150250Z - 150830Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with strong concerns for cell-training and high rainfall rates will continue through the
evening hours over especially far southern NV, northwest AZ, and
perhaps small portions of far eastern CA. Additional areas of
flash flooding are likely which may include dangerous and
life-threatening impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR/VIS satellite imagery suite
shows cold-topped convection persisting and locally regenerating
over areas of far southern NV, northwest AZ and a small part of
eastern CA. This is occurring with the deeper layer southerly
fetch of monsoonal moisture and instability interacting with and
overrunning a well-defined convectively reinforced cold pool and
associated outflow boundary that is nearly stationary.

Surface observations and satellite data show the southern extent
of the outflow boundary generally anchored in between Bullhead
City, AZ and Needles, CA, with a northeast extent of this over to
just southeast of Grand Canyon, AZ. Radar data over the last hour
has shown a substantial area of regenerating and locally
cell-training convection over portions of Clark and Mohave
Counties.

The latest RAP analysis shows MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg
over the top of the cold pool with the aid of focused southerly
low to mid-level flow around the southeast flank of an upper
trough advancing northeastward toward the southern Great Basin.
Moisture flux anomalies in the 850/700mb layer are also on the
order of 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. Satellite
imagery currently is also showing rather divergent flow aloft over
the region given proximity of the upper trough and associated jet
axis, and this is providing deeper layer ascent to help sustain
the convection.

Additional areas of locally focused heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the evening hours, with the
environment capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour, and additional storm totals of as much as 2 to 4
inches. This coupled with the rains that have already occurred
over the last couple of hours will support additional areas of
flash flooding, and at least localized concerns for dangerous and life-threatening impacts. Normally dry washes and any nearby slot
canyon and burn scar areas will be at greatest risk for impacts,
and this may include a heightened threat for downstream flood wave
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6BuljOTsCj9RpDZ3IOqAekikAWvi5I3fnkgM8VtS_glPRWDycYh71e2h6i6cOKrtg18uaRAQ_68VtpNPwgRZy9YcbjE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37081347 37011290 36631228 35941196 35491221
35021323 34841481 35031596 35451627 35811626
36151578 36491487 36931405

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 05:06:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150506
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-151100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1058
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
103 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...Far Northeast KS...Extreme Southeast
NE...Southern IA...Northern MO...Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150503Z - 151100Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms with significant cell-training concerns will exist
overnight. Numerous areas of flash flooding are likely with
elevated concerns for high-end and life-threatening impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
shows a well-defined MCV advancing east across central IA which is
in close proximity to a strong elevated instability gradient
situated along and north of a quasi-stationary front draped from
northeast KS through northern MO and into south-central IL.

MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are in place, with extremely
high PWs of 2.2 to 2.4+ inches based on the latest RAP analysis
and GPS-derived DATA. The 00Z RAOB data from KDVN and KILX show
deep WCL profiles with a highly tropical airmass extending deep
through the vertical column.

This environment is supportive of extreme rainfall rate potential
(2 to 4 inches/hour) over the next several hours as developing and
expanding areas of showers and thunderstorms occur along and north
of the stationary front. This will be facilitated by a
strengthening southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts overrunning
the front, promoting enhanced isentropic ascent/forcing, and also
driving enhanced moisture and instability transport into the
southern flank of the MCV crossing through the Midwest.

Very high FFG exceedance probabilities are showing up in the 00Z
HREF, and an analysis of the HRRR-TLE data (last 6 runs) strongly
supports a threat for extremely heavy rainfall totals at least
locally across parts of northern MO, southern IA and through
central IL with elevated concerns for high-end impacts.

Current radar and satellite trends integrated with the hires CAMs
suggest potential for as much as 4 to 7+ inches of rain by dawn on
at least a localized basis where enhanced cell-training takes
place. The environment is highly conducive for this, and with such
high moisture and instability profiles coupling with a belt of
stronger mid-level flow/shear for cell-organization/MCS
development, high-end rainfall rates/storm potential appears
likely.

The antecedent conditions are quite sensitive/moist across
especially areas of southeast IA and central IL due to recent
heavy rainfall, and the FFG values are already low here.
Therefore, the expectation over the next several hours will be for
numerous areas of flash flooding to materialize, with concerns for
dangerous and life-threatening impacts.

The threat will be somewhat lower farther back to the
west-southwest across northwest MO, northeast KS and far southeast
NE, but areas of heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding will
exist here too. This situation more broadly over the Midwest needs
to be very carefully monitored going through the early morning
hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6CGsF9H8-Zs6vels4gYXUGiTdoLH-t9Anm_dxUJMBFmdXfDNiJk9H9h4F4az_zouVcCGYbgrpmEo_Q7brVPjy9fivnE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...IND...LOT...LSX...OAX...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41659034 41558913 41168760 40328728 39818815
39539102 39409352 39089557 39229639 39759676
40239667 40659585 41279397 41529243

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 09:03:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150902
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-151500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1059
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...Southeast IA...Northeast MO...Central and
Northern IL...Central and Northern IN...Far Western OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150900Z - 151500Z

SUMMARY...Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity with locally
extreme rainfall rates will continue this morning. Numerous to
widespread areas of flash flooding including areas of high-end and life-threatening impacts are expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a strong
west/east oriented MCS advancing across sizable areas of the
Midwest. The coldest convective tops (-75 to -80 celsius) are
depicted over far southeast IA through western and central IL.
MRMS data shows extremely heavy showers and thunderstorms with
rainfall rates occasionally into the 2 to 3+ inch/hour range.

All of the convective activity continues to advance east along a
strong elevated instability gradient situated north of a
quasi-stationary front draped from northern MO eastward across
southern IL and adjacent areas of the Lower OH Valley.

MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg are in place, with extremely
high PWs of 2.2 to 2.4+ inches based on the latest RAP analysis
and GPS-derived data. Earlier RAOB soundings from 00Z confirmed
deep WCD layers and an environment conducive for extremely
efficient convection with high-end rainfall rates.

This will continue to be supported through early this morning by
the nose of a southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts overrunning
the front. This will sustain enhanced isentropic ascent/forcing
while promoting downstream moisture and instability transport. An
MCV also remains embedded within the larger scale convective mass
across southeast IA, and this coupled with the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment will favor convective
sustenance for several more hours.

Numerous to widespread areas of flash flooding are already
occurring across far southeast IA through western and central IL.
This threat is expected to extend downstream this morning across
eastern IL and much of central IN. By late this morning, areas of
western OH may also begin to be impacted. Low FFG values and high
streamflows per USGS data are noted all across these areas, and
thus the antecedent conditions are very sensitive.

The latest model guidance supports additional rainfall amounts
through this morning as high as 3 to 6+ inches, and especially
with strong cell-training concerns. Given the antecedent
environment, and high rainfall potential over multiple major
metropolitan areas, high-end and life-threatening flash flooding
impacts are expected.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9CwXyETkdfdE6u9Nc9Fuf0dIYseb-PrPcmPJb2qmbO9G8aOskhlgBXWjVQUM-L0qNq2VPA_isflO6K_Vmsacoj-dzic$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41698779 41568653 41298518 40888458 40358443
39828470 39458538 39258700 39418922 39589088
39869256 40119327 40649367 41189329 41449196
41648996

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 18:35:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151835
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-160033-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1060
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky into southwestern Virginia,
eastern Tennessee, and western North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151833Z - 160033Z

Summary...Spots of flash flooding are possible with scattered
thunderstorms across the region through 00Z/8p eastern.

Discussion...Strong insolation has fostered sufficient instability
for scattered thunderstorm development mainly focused in the
eastern third of Kentucky. Storms are in a very strongly unstable
environment (2500 J/kg MLCAPE), with 2+ inch PW and weak/modest
steering flow (less than 10 knots) fostering slow thunderstorm
movement. The recent development of storms has mitigated rain
rates so far (peaking at around 0.5 inch/hr), though models/CAMs
and observations all suggest that as convection expands in
coverage over the next few hours, spots of mergers/upscale growth
along with 1 inch/hr rain rates will gradually become more likely
-- even if on an isolated basis. These rain rates will approach
local FFG (around 1-1.5 inch/hr areawide -- slightly higher east
of I-81 in southwestern Virginia and I-77 in North Carolina).
Given the low FFG and sensitive local terrain, at least isolated
flash flood potential will exist - perhaps through 00Z/8p eastern.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9QZp_hGf-6x3NRezarrscF7yVqrZuCtLbkwkBDyGma0x345vOmCNaEVEFF2l7_t1VZphrjUwDr2uwpcVXx76ysTq1ek$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38738387 38708243 38098033 37058008 36218044
35458176 34978440 35948463 37208433

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 19:12:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151911
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-160109-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1061
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of Colorado, New Mexico, and
southeastern Wyoming

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151909Z - 160109Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to increase in
coverage and pose a flash flood risk through at least 00Z/6p
mountain daylight time.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts thunderstorm
development on a scattered basis primarily along terrain-favored
peaks/ridges from central Colorado southward through south-central
New Mexico. Initial development so far has been concentrated in
areas of high storm bases (PW values of around 1 inch) and around
500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Weak steering flow has encouraged slow
storm motions, and MRMS radar estimates of 0.5-1 inch/hr have
already been noted - primarily due to slow cell movement.

Models/CAMs suggest that convection will continue to mature and
increase in coverage through the early evening hours while
drifting slowly northeast. As cells migrate eastward, they'll
encounter PW values (particularly east of the CO Front Range,
where 1.25+ PW values exist) increasing likelihood of additional
areas of heavy rainfall. Multiple storm mergers/backbuilding are
expected, which should also prolong heavy rain rates locally. FFG
thresholds near the storms and immediately downstream of are in
the 0.5-1 inch/hr range and should be readily exceeded at times.
Some storms may also interact with burn scars that have readily
supported excessive runoff and significant flash flood impacts,
and additional impacts are also possible. Flash flooding is
expected in several areas through 6p mountain time and beyond
given the regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_iNTGESQPoBdNs7QOp3pcKoSjnfxiuuO0ZD58QXo9QM030NUgicK2MrNcokkCmIUcvSDVE39DW2iigyx22zGpPG5hjc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...EPZ...GJT...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41980403 41230294 40090260 38370285 37010360
35560439 33920490 32900534 32700588 33440634
35640623 36990687 37960719 39830692 40900656
41940534

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 00:15:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160015
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-160613-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1062
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of Iowa and Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160013Z - 160613Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms were developing over southern
Iowa and should expand in coverage while reaching parts of
southeastern Iowa and Illinois that have received 2-7 inches of
rainfall in the past 24 hours. Areas of flash flooding are
possible on at least an isolated basis.

Discussion...A few areas of thunderstorms have materialized
between Des Moines and Burlington over the past hour. These
storms are forming along and ahead of a weak surface frontal
boundary and low-pressure area across southeastern Iowa. The
storms are in a favorable environment for heavy rainfall, with
abundant moisture (2-2.3 inch PW values), 4000 J/kg MLCAPE, and
subtle low-level confluence/mid-level forcing aiding in both
convective development and efficient rainfall processes. MRMS
estimates of 1 inch/hr were already noted just southeast of Des
Moines, which isn't surprising given the aforementioned
thermodynamic environment.

These storms were on a general path toward northern Illinois along
a corridor extending from Davenport to Galesburg (between I-74/US
34 and I-80). Just south of this region, 2-7 inches of rain fell
in the last 24 hours, and scattered to widespread flood/flash
flood impacts were observed. The combination of weak convective
inhibition and subtle forcing/convergence from a gradually
increasing low-level jet (focused in MO/western IL) may enable
upscale growth and propagation toward the prior rainfall axis over
the next 3-6 hours, posing a renewed flash flood risk on at least
an isolated basis. FFGs remain low from prior rainfall, and the
favorable thermodynamic environment readily supports FFG
exceedance and local 2-3 inch amounts especially with a favorable
storm mode for local backbuilding. Although somewhat conditional,
the risk of flash flooding will increase dramatically with any
southward development/propagation of cells toward the Burlington/Peoria/Bloomington/Champaign axis through 06Z/1a
central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5iNspro22httGonRWUYTVOcE9gh25vlnGdDNMAhcqTC6jRd2F_rK0gOypfkIR2zVMmWDHNBn-RIhWyaskUGmUEUvM4U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41899013 41678874 41148802 40438780 39988812
40099081 40729322 41749354 41879197

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 00:51:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160051
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-160649-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1063
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
850 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...much of Kansas and far eastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160049Z - 160649Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
expected through 06Z/1a central.

Discussion...A couple of convective clusters were expanding
gradually toward western Kansas over the past hour. One was
located over far southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas, where
multiple merging cells have fostered spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates (per MRMS) and another, more linearly oriented cluster from
near Sterling south-southwest through Limon to near Pueblo. The
cells were making steady eastward progress toward increasing PW
(1.25-1.8), strong instability (around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE across
west-central KS), and low-level easterly flow, providing very
subtle low-level shear to aid in cell/MCS maintenance. These
clusters have resulted in several areas of reported flash flood
impacts and MRMS Flash responses - particularly across central
Colorado. Given the increasingly favorable thermodynamic
environment and expectation that several mergers will accompany
the clusters as they migrate eastward through Kansas, flash flood
potential is likely to continue through the night. FFG thresholds
only marginally improve with eastward extent into Kansas and
remain close to 1-1.5 inch/hr from west-central into north-central
KS and points northwestward. These thresholds will be exceeded
occasionally as cells move through the discussion area through
06Z/1a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Cm-QsVHwZtapGGu3-JgqCsTyJ4VGeUx1jV4ddkKqq3vXYwZG3zm1RFqP25N7hG47dsbpNEbNZwo1treAYaDizmEBYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...PUB...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40640301 40230149 40059919 39919784 38969738
37959808 37270013 37110217 37770380 38660416
40430374

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 03:32:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160331
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-160930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1064
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1130 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160330Z - 160930Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected tonight. Wet antecedent conditions and
high rainfall rates will foster areas of flash flooding. Some of
this may be significant and locally life-threatening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
well-defined MCV advancing slowly eastward across northwest OH
which is connected to the strong early-day MCS that impacted
upstream areas across the Midwest with heavy rainfall. This MCV is
in close proximity to a quasi-stationary front draped across the
Upper OH Valley and central Appalachians.

RAP data shows a rather substantial pooling of warm-sector
instability across the OH Valley with MUCAPE values locally as
high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg. A subtle increase in a west-southwest
low-level jet is expected overnight around the southern flank of
the MCV which will increase the moisture and instability transport
into the front and in an elevated fashion farther downstream.

This resulting isentropic ascent and forcing near the MCV itself
will foster the development and expansion of heavy showers and
thunderstorms overnight that will be capable of very high rainfall
rates. The PWs are 1.75 to 2.0 inches, and this coupled with the
instability will support rainfall rates capable of reaching 1.5 to
2.5 inches/hour.

Corridors of cell-training are likely by later tonight, and the
latest hires multi-model consensus supports as much as 3 to 5+
inches across portions central to southeast OH. Some of this heavy
rainfall is also expected to advance into northwest WV.

The antecedent conditions are very sensitive across the region
from heavy rainfall earlier in the week, and these additional
rains tonight will likely result in areas of flash flooding.
Significant and life-threatening impacts will be possible. This
will include a combination of urban flash flooding and also
terrain-driven impacts where rugged topography along the western
slopes of the central Appalachians will enhance runoff.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VkSzrbZP18jl0KJLz6EuzDispRJId9-fHa-2ymGGTH4iHvhrjW2BTq1JXUpOMP-7QnEXQfoRhVzeHKTHp3Du0gUXgA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41478292 41278111 40757993 39877948 38917976
38478046 38528127 38698185 39128272 39718339
40558428 41218402

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 06:37:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160636
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1065
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast KS...Far Southeast
NE...Northern MO...Western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160635Z - 161235Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually
increase in coverage later tonight and through early Sunday
morning. Some localized cell-training may occur and this will
favor a threat for at least some isolated areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite data along
with radar shows a forward-propagating MCS advancing toward
north-central KS in association with a shortwave trough ejecting
out across the central Plains. This energy will be interacting
with a frontal zone draped across eastern KS through northern MO
over the next several hours which will set the stage for an
increase in the coverage of convection.

MUCAPE values in vicinity of the front are 2000 to 3000 J/kg with
PWs also quite high in the 2.0 to 2.25 inch range. This very moist
and unstable environment will be favoring high rainfall rates
capable of locally reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. The increase
in convective coverage ahead of the current MCS will be tied into
broader warm air advection and forcing extending downstream across
especially northeast KS and northern MO as a modest uptick in
low-level southwest flow overruns the aforementioned front.
Modestly divergent flow aloft ahead of the shortwave energy will
also facilitate an increase in thunderstorm activity near and just
poleward of the front where the better instability gradient will
be aligned aloft.

The latest hires model guidance suggests some localized
cell-training concerns which may allow for some narrow swaths of 3
to 4+ inch rainfall totals going through early Sunday morning.
This may yield some isolated, and mainly urban flash flooding
concerns. If the convection were to advance into western IL, which
is suggested by some guidance, the threat for flash flooding may
increase a bit given wetter antecedent conditions across this
region.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7qq3-xwnWsxH-fs36pzxpTlQcG1VB_2KNJj2AGuXRuKKAcoP5bTTHi6hcDg5fm5UXQGEdf99-RNT7_aylE-YiMssZmQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...ICT...ILX...LSX...OAX...
SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40879049 40418949 39578936 39059015 38729229
38549482 38559687 38719841 39459884 39899840
40289685 40469552 40609401 40729199

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 08:52:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160851
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-161450-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1066
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
450 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160850Z - 161450Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning
across parts of the Upper OH Valley and central Appalachians.
Additional pockets of flash flooding will be likely with locally
significant impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an MCV
entering northwest IN in association with a compact MCS exiting
northeast IL, with a second MCV downstream over northeast OH. Both
of these MCVs along with broad warm air advection/isentropic
ascent will work in tandem with the presence of deep moisture and
modest instability transport for additional clusters of heavy
showers and thunderstorms. A warm front lifting northeastward into
the central Appalachians is another key element of the convective
threat.

Radar imagery shows locally focused areas of convection currently
over north-central WV with separate pockets of heavy showers and
thunderstorms scattered over southern OH and far western WV. The
activity continues to facilitate locally extreme rainfall rates as
high as 2.5 inches/hour given the very deep moisture that is in
place along with pockets of moderate instability. MUCAPE values
locally as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg and PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches
are in place based on the latest RAP analysis.

As the MCV energy traverses the Upper OH Valley and central
Appalachians this morning, additions rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will be expected, and some cell-training concerns
will exist. There will also be the added element of orographic
ascent/upslope flow over the central Appalachians including
southwest PA, far western MD, and much of central WV where
rainfall rates may be enhanced further and also more concentrated.

Additional rainfall totals this morning of 3 to 4+ inches will be
possible and especially where any cell-training takes place. The
antecedent conditions are very sensitive across the region from
heavy rainfall earlier in the week, and these additional rains
this morning are likely to result in more flash flooding. Locally
significant impacts will be possible and especially over the
rugged terrain of the central Appalachians.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9kFO52Yd4LPzZSeSzFbXzOtrEbNgLfugM7FZbYepo-q8LRRp2uYX-fYjW3C1LnPhJibdZFEucKPQa7Zm3vJV52btH-4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41598332 41018154 40918045 40847906 40537826
39867793 39027798 38217830 37747895 37517977
37578102 37758167 38078242 38918347 39558444
40298492 41338467

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 12:06:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161205
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-161700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1067
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
804 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois and Southern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161203Z - 161700Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over south-central Illinois
will continue to shift east in a moisture rich environment.
Cell-training should continue which raises a threat for isolated
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...NEXRAD regional display shows an active cluster of
thunderstorms tracking south of Decatur, IL in a warm sector south
of a stationary front over northern IL. SBCAPE of 1500 J/kg and PW
of 2.1" is allowing heavy rainfall with deep layer westerly flow
allowing repeating activity. One hour rainfall of 1.5" is
estimated from KILX. This is close to the 1hr FFG. This activity
will continue to shift east on the north side of the persistent
ridge axis over the Deep South.

Areas downstream have not been as wet as areas farther north over
the past several days, though this activity may persist through
eastern Indiana which had exceptional rain during midweek.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs have little to no rainfall downstream of
the current cluster. Some warming is noted in the latest clean IR
scans, so this activity may yet diminish. However, the axis of
instability downstream does suggest some potential for continued
development. Isolated flash flooding is possible rest of the
morning.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7w3YTxxdWMwFSdb_OctvF4BMQ4G2YbdLEDynclstmqxtwxymjnBQLyYa3Vx8Hht_e481tdvzLRgkKdnxKSPJgk24u08$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40248573 40028478 39148455 38468505 38368636
38978971 39808996 40238767

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 14:50:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161450
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern Ohio and West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161448Z - 162030Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over the central Ohio/Indiana
border should expand and intensify over southern Ohio through West
Virginia through this afternoon. Cell-training should continue
with coverage of flash flooding increasing to scattered for this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster east of Muncie, IN is in a
warm sector south of a warm front over northern OH. SBCAPE is
increasing to 3000 J/kg over southern OH where sunshine is fairly
abundant per visible imagery. Moisture is pooled as well with PW
around 2.1". Hourly rainfall 1" is estimated from KILN for this
cluster with deep layer westerly flow allowing repeating activity.
Thunderstorm coverage will increase through midday with ample
instability along with a trough axis extending northeast from
Indiana/Kentucky. Southern Ohio and WV are vulnerable to further
flash flooding from a prolonged series of active weather. 1hr FFG
is generally around 1".

Like with earlier activity over IL, recent HRRR and RRFS runs have
little to no rainfall downstream of the current cluster. However,
the environment is encouraging for renewed growth and this area is
rather vulnerable. Expect flash flooding instances to increase to
scattered coverage through the afternoon hours with locally
considerable impacts likely. Further shortwave impulse tracking
north of the Deep South ridge should promote further activity
tonight, so subsequent discussions are likely.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4zUHVvKRQl-7VXcS2F6JTy1sZde9O5fM_Kup4kLE33Df1Q7HImJI1g_C2icX6ymImxlt1EXb5X23P_6EnA_93LeViGc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40548379 40438252 40108154 39648069 39217996
38807956 38417977 37798007 37288030 37328077
37448119 37998247 38388392 39198513 39888524
40318491

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:21:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170135
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-170733-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
934 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...eastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois
and southwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170133Z - 170733Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
forming a complex near/west of St. Louis Metro. Flash flood
potential will accompany this activity through 07Z/2p central.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have increase in coverage
across eastern Missouri recently. The storms are being forced by
a couple of influences: 1) weak mid-level troughing migrating
through zonal flow aloft across the region and 2) low-level
confluence associated with a trough/weak front migrating into the
region from the northwest. These factors were forcing
thunderstorm development amid an abundantly moist airmass (2+ inch
PW) with very strong instability over the Missouri Ozarks (3000+
J/kg MLCAPE), resulting in convective activity with heavy rainfall
potential. Appreciable steering flow exists (around 20 knots or
so), although the east-west orientation of storms near St. Louis
Metro and the propagating nature of convection farther west (near
Jefferson City/Rolla) suggests both the potential for mergers and
eventual upscale growth into a forward propagating complex. The
mergers will likely result in areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates near
St.Louis and along the I-70 corridor in the near future.
Meanwhile, FFG thresholds of around 1.5-2 inch/hr will be exceeded
at times -- also suggestive of flash flood potential.

Ultimately, the extent of the flash flood risk across the
discussion area will depend on the extent and maturation fo
convective coverage and potential for any localized
training/backbuilding to unfold. CAMs suggest that local
backbuilding is a possibility in this regime even though
forward-propagating clusters/lines may end up being the primary
convective mode. Flash flood potential will exist for several
hours tonight (through 07Z).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!60AWdktpY8unnKtDXkRMpYHXSaCpA1aepUNVLlMKmNEdNLlFZVjXOfM2EN3Vixa5bjovFOxUKuoiJe3ZjyAPaJ4vkRM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40008930 39818699 38328684 37628813 36958972
36879203 38479202 39219162 39689110

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:30:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170732
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-171330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...Lower OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170730Z - 171330Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with potential for multiple
rounds of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the
Lower OH Valley going through the early morning hours. Areas of
flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
cold-topped MCS (tops to near -75 C) advancing eastward across the
Lower OH Valley, with one strong convective segment moving across
far southwest IN and into parts of northwest KY, with some renewed
convective development see back to the west across southern IL.

This activity is associated with a shortwave impulse and
associated surface low crossing the region while interacting with
a frontal zone and the pooling of moderate instability along it.
MLCAPE values are locally around 1500 J/kg with PWs of 2+ inches.
There is a west-southwest low-level jet of 30+ kts around the
southern flank of the vort energy that is overrunning this front,
and that along with focused moisture convergence is helping to
support the organized nature of the MCS.

The forward propagation of the MCS to this point has mitigated the
flash flood threat. However, radar imagery showing some new
convective development back to the west of the initial convective
line. Rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2 inches/hour have been noted with
the strongest cores of the MCS, and this has been allowing for
some brief spotty FFG exceedance.

Since there is some additional upstream convection that will cross
areas that have seen the initial round of heavy rainfall, there
may be sufficient totals to foster some areas of mainly urban
flash flooding in the near-term.

However, the other consideration over the next few hours will also
be areas downstream across central and eastern KY where antecedent
conditions become more sensitive due to recent heavy rainfall.
This is where FFG values are lower and USGS data shows
elevated/high streamflows. If the current MCS can maintain its
character downstream across central and eastern KY through early
this morning, the threat of flash flooding will increase in
coverage and magnitude.

As such, the latest model guidance does support some heavy
rainfall (spotty 2+ inch totals) making it east across these areas
early this morning. Therefore, at least regionally there should be
a concern for localized flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9gNRKvPTZHNmxAmBGz6aa0OV0p0S3vdCGKVxAOXyVnuollec68D6woCaDM28CpAAk3v2AS23Snlelumpbj89J1tK52E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39118458 38868335 38448263 37938242 37478279
37208375 37058511 37068720 37318872 37768933
38388917 38818834 39078687

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:35:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161739
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-162230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
139 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania to
Potomac Highlands

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161737Z - 162230Z

SUMMARY...Organized thunderstorms over northeast Ohio will
progress east through western Pennsylvania into this evening.
Cell-training is possible with a localized flash flooding concern
rest of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730Z, an MCS over northeast Ohio is ahead of
an MCV over western Lake Erie. Sufficient instability is
downstream with SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Abundant moisture is
present with 2.2" PW over eastern OH that will advect east with
the line. Deep layer westerly flow will keep the system
progressive overall, though development ahead will locally train
with a general 1-2 local 3" rainfall in the forecast into this
evening. 1hr FFG downstream is generally 1 to 1.5", so flash
flooding should be localized to areas with repeating activity.

Unlike areas farther west and south, recent HRRR and RRFS runs
have a decent handle on this convective line with potential for
another round development still ahead of the MCV later. The 15Z
RRFS is hotter than the HRRR with QPF per usual with a risk for 4"
along an axis that does not seem reasonable since the RRFS
depiction is confined too far north compared to reality from
NEXRAD. Flash flooding is considered possible and should remain
localized. This area is rather flood prone, so this area will
continue to be monitored and should a second line develop this
evening, a subsequent discussion would be needed.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!47VzgzNOLgCuChAJK6tKxA5O62HtKUe2NZ5hu7MYaG3Zm6x9_T3Zr8Ou1IdjdJrWzMlglAHuel817EdMgkjpO1LbCI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41887999 41777882 40607822 39227927 39077974
39788100 40298192 41078187 41678124

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:36:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170147
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-170500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1077
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
945 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Southeast VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170145Z - 170500Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms near and south of
Richmond will be advancing off to the southeast along the I-64
corridor over the next few hours. Some additional pockets of urban
flash flooding will be possible for a few more hours, including
areas around the Hampton Roads/Norfolk vicinity.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a cluster of
cold-topped convection across south-central VA that is propagating
off to the southeast toward the general I-64 corridor in between
Richmond and Norfolk.

The latest RAP analysis still shows a bubble of MLCAPE values
reaching near 2000 J/kg ahead of the small-scale MCS. This coupled
with a very moist column with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches and
relatively convergent low-level flow may allow the activity to
sustain itself for at least another 2 to 3 hours before then
gradually weakening due to loss of daytime heating and convective
overturning.

Rainfall rates with this activity will still be capable of
reaching 2 inches/hour, and since there are some cell-training
concerns seen in the current radar imagery, there may be some
additional highly localized 3+ inch rainfall amounts going through
midnight.

This may foster some additional pockets of mainly urban flash
flooding near the I-64 corridor and down toward the Hampton Roads
vicinity over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4r7NsiBW0KjX8OathikLNiz0jzRkL3UnvTA6CoAgfeAk8MleZWAdYaY20L1hbHabjXJ2ITtdjXDkp4PgpGacIjpeLZQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37667820 37647740 37487666 37067588 36557597
36587704 36857799 37287842

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:40:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161854
FFGMPD
OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-170053-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of Colorado and New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161853Z - 170053Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage across Colorado and New Mexico today, with at least a few
instances of flash flooding expected through 00Z/6p mountain.

Discussion...Abundant sunshine and mid-level moisture has
contributed to development of a few thunderstorms along higher
terrain from central Colorado southward through south-central New
Mexico. Storms are initially focused on terrain-favored
peaks/ridgelines while also moving slowly due to weak/marginal
steering flow aloft (less than 10 knots). Low-level easterly flow
was also encouraging updrafts via upslope/orographic forcing.
PWATs vary widely across the discussion area and are generally
between 0.75-1 inch in the immediate vicinity of the storms and
points to the west, while increasing to around 1.25 inch with
eastward extent across the High Plains. As storms continue to
expand in coverage over the next few hours, slow movement will
enable spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates to develop, which should
activate excessive runoff in/near burn scar areas on at least an
isolated basis.

Over time, storms will move slowly and erratically while
eventually forming clusters/linear segments especially from
east-central CO into central/northeast NM. These clusters will
continue to pose a flash flood risk through the evening hours as
they ingest higher PW air from the east while obtaining loose
organization, prolonging heavy rainfall locally. Areas of 2 inch
rainfall totals are expected, with flash flood potential remaining
enhanced near local sensitive spots/burn scars. This risk will
exist through at least 00Z/6p mountain time this evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6epi5goEMNPylpWvsTg1I3ch-YS1Q8gvR9Q2mHmMKvH3YcFq6l4mahLLny6CBdKYk7vYBu3OKegFZWu525doy_E_tgQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...EPZ...GJT...GLD...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40770552 40580455 39900295 38820249 37840247
36930287 35790336 33930428 32100504 32150705
32520838 33820869 35540813 36700707 37780687
39630666 40440645

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:40:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162223
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170219-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
622 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southern/coastal Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162219Z - 170219Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists across the
discussion area for another 2-4 hours (through 02Z/9p central).

Discussion...Deep convection persists on a scattered basis across
the discussion area, with slow westward propagation around a
mid/upper high centered over AL/GA. These storms have exhibited marginal/modest organization, with areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates
evident per MRMS. The storms also appear to be supported by a
weak mid-level vort max evident in model/objective analyses near
the area. The downstream, pre-convective airmass is plenty
supportive of maintaining updrafts with heavy rainfall (2 inch PW,
2500 J/kg MLCAPE), and with slow (5-10 kt) storm motions, isolated
flash flood potential could evolve especially if rain occurs over
local sensitive/urbanized areas. This threat appears to be
primarily diurnally driven, with a weakening trend expected after
about 01-02Z (9p central) in tandem with the onset of nocturnal
low-level cooling.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-6dOO2aRkewspy-L120yzhYyf0blxSAeprutEb8QmSNjOMJidyIq3Ctpch9DcQbC_XDUOoH_MVzhfgNXuCqhrP3dlrc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31599003 31328809 30848755 30268790 29768974
29939184 31199164

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:40:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162221
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170219-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
619 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southern/coastal Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162219Z - 170219Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists across the
discussion area for another 2-4 hours (thorugh 02Z/9p central).

Discussion...Deep convection persists on a scattered basis across
the discussion area, with slow westward propagation around a
mid/upper high centered over AL/GA. These storms have exhibited marginal/modest organization, with areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates
evident per MRMS. The storms also appear to be supported by a
weak mid-level vort max evident in model/objective analyses near
the area. The downstream, pre-convective airmass is plenty
supportive of maintaining updrafts with heavy rainfall (2 inch PW,
2500 J/kg MLCAPE), and with slow (5-10 kt) storm motions, isolated
flash flood potential could evolve especially if rain occurs over
local sensitive/urbanized areas. This threat appears to be
primarily diurnally driven, with a weakening trend expected after
about 01-02Z (9p central) in tandem with the onset of nocturnal
low-level cooling.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!67u_mGhaUGUuKOxT3LmKE_WedZtlBOOUrr1PG1ZMooolpTbZH-REXDxUFEi2no3VlTsBwZzhhN2oBqBAj7ILAKNzKRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31599003 31328809 30848755 30268790 29768974
29939184 31199164

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:55:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162237
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-170236-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
636 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...northern Virginia into much of Maryland and the
District of Columbia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162236Z - 170236Z

Summary...A small cluster of thunderstorms could produce heavy
rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr as they traverse northern Virginia
and the Washington D.C. Metropolitan area through 02Z/10p eastern.

Discussion...A mature convective complex is current crossing the
central Appalachians and is approaching the discussion area from
the west -- extending from near Chambersburg, PA to near
Charlottesville, VA. Just ahead of this convective complex,
developing convection has focused near/just west of a warm front
and was located over western DC suburbs from near Sterling to
Winchester. Mean westerly steering flow aloft was enabling
east-southeasterly storm motions at around 20 knots or so, with
slightly faster storm motions noted with the approaching
convective complex. The airmass supporting storms is plenty
moist/unstable (2.2 inch PW, 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). The overall
scenario will support a continued, gradual increase in coverage
of storms across the discussion area along with areas of mergers
and rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr at times. These rates will
fall on urban/sensitive terrain, with local FFG thresholds near 1
inch/hr or so along the entire I-95 corridor and much of the
discussion area. These FFGs will be exceeded at times as storms
continue to evolve. Areas of flash flooding are possible for at
least a few hours (through 02Z/10p eastern) in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_HJ1l93EsF9P3Qys0BoNSWI3HiEWpBhwV3gY0nhKYjrsw1cVDpq3s7AfrNJyhLE2I1jNVC2FgEJXEostkQrkCI_uUP0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39707810 39577680 39057608 38087632 37967822
38477882

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 14:05:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161657
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-162200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1256 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois through Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161655Z - 162200Z

SUMMARY...Organized thunderstorms over western Illinois should
expand and intensify this afternoon as they shift east through
Indiana. Cell-training is possible with a localized flash flooding
concern rest of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An MCS that crosses northern MO this morning is now
over western IL. Ample instability is downstream with SBCAPE of
4000 J/kg. Abundant moisture is pooled ahead of this MCS as well
with PW to 2.1 to 2.2" extending east across central IN. Deep
layer westerly flow will keep the system progressive overall,
though development ahead will locally train and the bookends
should have prolonged heavy rain. Hourly rainfall estimates
currently around 1.5" should increase as activity further
develops. 1hr FFG downstream is around 1.5" over the northern half
of the discussion area while values are closer to 2" over the
southern half.

The warm start of the HRRR and RRFS have this organized activity,
but both kill it despite the unstable/moist environment, so they
are of little help. Much of the discussion area has recovered
fairly well from recent rains with main stem rivers remaining in
flood. Flash flooding is considered possible from the general 1-2"
rainfall expected with this activity through about 22Z.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9RfYNfl8341anGJgUdrHVg_nhLZYq-W5JG4Efn8tae2ocENv3A09EyJ6wRJ6PZmK6EhUNb6WDIpAd7PuObcWjJMzqdI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...LSX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41028811 40628646 40278506 39628485 38828490
38808575 38578787 38358923 38489066 38939170
39609150 40189147 40629122 40879074

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 14:06:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170107
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-170705-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1075
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
906 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of the High Plains and adjacent
southern/central Rockies

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170105Z - 170705Z

Summary...Flash flood potential lingers across the southern and
central Rockies, but will likely begin to focus from southeastern
Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and southwest Kansas
through 07Z/1a mountain/2a central.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to persist within a
couple of regimes: 1) along the central and southern Rockies on an
isolated basis where lingering instability is enough to continue a
risk of heavy rainfall despite widespread convective overturning
and 2) from northeastern New Mexico into southwestern Colorado,
where evolving convective clusters were interacting favorably with
a moist/unstable axis extending from there eastward into southwest Kansas/western Oklahoma. Steering flow remains weak, supporting
slow storm motions areawide amid PW values of ~1 inch in southern
New Mexico to around 1.5 inch in southeastern Colorado. Areas of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates remain with the dominant cells in this
regime, which is enough to result in local FFG exceedance and
areas of flash flood potential -- especially where heavier
rainfall interacts with burn scars and other sensitive terrain.

Through the overnight hours, flash flood potential will likely
focus from southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico
eastward to adjacent areas of the High Plains (KS/OK/TX). Here, a
well-defined moist axis and weak easterly low-level flow will help
to maintain any convective clusters that move slowly eastward.
FFG thresholds are generally in the 1-2 inch/hr range from
southeast CO eastward, and these values may be exceeded on an
isolated to scattered basis given the character of the approaching
convection. Flash flooding remains possible through at least 07Z
tonight.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8g64Rn8agd1kBos8iZEGBiqsJahRDnS84FsRB3UffMQI3FY-oTnXxEmT-PV_2GTmdyIX5z7why4xrMLqTS1ep4DzHqA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40910373 39340203 38209996 37189953 35940002
35360251 33910491 33490608 35480603 38220572
40270518

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 14:15:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162037
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-170234-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of Ohio into West Virginia, western
Virginia, and eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 162034Z - 170234Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are expected through at least
02Z/10p eastern time this evening.

Discussion...An earlier complex of thunderstorms across central
West Virginia has now began to backbuild and orient parallel to
westerly steering flow aloft near Charleston, while additional
developing convection was noted upstream over western Ohio and
vicinity. The storms are embedded in zonal/westerly flow aloft,
with abundant upstream sunshine over the Ohio Valley and weak
mid-level shortwave troughs over the region aiding in scattered
convective development. The storms are in a favorable
thermodynamic environment for heavy rainfall, with 1.6-2.2 inch PW
values and 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE prevalent to support ongoing storms.
Furthermore, 20-30 kt westerly 850mb flow was maintaining the
moist/unstable airmass into the region of convective activity
while further enabling a setup for both forward-propagating and
backbuilding convection.

The overall scenario is setting up for at least two rounds of deep
convection with heavy rainfall to occur through 02Z especially
across central West Virginia. Several areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates are expected given the environment, and these rain rates
should readily exceed FFG thresholds, which are low (around 1
inch/hr or less) areawide due to prior heavy rainfall and wet
soils. With multiple training and/or backbuilding bands of storms
expected across the discussion area (especially from OH into WV),
locally significant impacts are expected through 02Z/10p and
possibly beyond.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_3Q4uex8hk3cfPk3XCLafp5_m6Mi9-iIvg08fGsq9R4WcHNesqW_w_X2ulV37YFPitH-MatBUgP1bUuLKiX3BCPB-iM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX... PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40828280 40258078 39577948 38397961 37977964
37098000 36748050 36688183 36878291 37908426
38818514 40288527 40698432

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 14:21:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170235
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-170600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1078
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1034 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KY...Central and Southern WV...Southwest
to West-Central VA...Far Northeast TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170234Z - 170600Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding will be likely over
the next few hours as heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to
advance down to the southeast.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a broken
MCS continuing to advance down to the southeast across eastern KY
through central and southern WV. The activity is associated with
the ejection of shortwave/MCV energy across the central
Appalachians.

An instability axis remains in place across areas of far southeast
KY/northeast TN and across much of southwest VA. However, the
greater instability profiles are generally over southwest VA east
of the Blue Ridge with MLCAPE values as high as 1500+ J/kg. Cloud
top temperatures have been warming a bit with the activity over
central and southern WV, but remain very cold over southeast KY
where enhanced rainfall rates of near 2 inches/hour are occurring.

It is possible that the portion of the MCS over southern WV may be
able to make it into areas of southwest VA where there could be
some convective regeneration given better instability situated
east of the Blue Ridge, but there is considerable uncertainty with
the details of the survival of the MCS downstream.

Areas upstream over southeast KY, far northeast TN, far southwest
VA and adjacent areas of central and southern WV are very
sensitive from recent rainfall. The latest radar and satellite
trends suggest at least locally an additional 2 to 3 inches of
rain may occur.

Given the wet/saturated antecedent conditions, these additional
rains are likely to foster some additional areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6Zn08jg1H5ROhDV9UYokjECmd9Q7AJuXUWRZ19vytuI2sFFy-2nSHYOKTS9_LvkO18EXfqkCassEXGwiH93VDHyVMF0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39407998 39007873 38347870 37387930 36618054
36318196 36218343 36598436 37238442 37838381
38368155

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 17:28:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171728
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-172230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...Southern Ohio into West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171726Z - 172230Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern Ohio
will progress east through West Virginia rest of this afternoon.
Cell-training is possible over this sensitive area from multiple
days of repeating rainfall. Localized flash flooding can be
expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As of 17Z, scattered showers have expanded enough
over southern Ohio to warrant inclusion in a discussion. This area
is in a warm sector ahead of a cold front with about 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE and elevated moisture of 2.1" PW. Hourly rainfall estimates
over southeast OH have begun to exceed 1". 1hr FFG is low,
generally around 1" over this area and east through central WV,
from the excessive rainfall across the region over the past week.
This activity is oriented with the deep layer westerly so
prolonged rainfall is expected to continue.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs have a decent handle on this activity
with a general 1-2" local 3" through 22Z. There has been a lack of
lightning so far with this southeast OH activity. Warm rain
processes will keep efficient production and the amount of
instability does suggest further intensification through the
afternoon is likely. Activity will clear behind the cold front,
but that won't clear this discussion area until later this
evening. A subsequent discussion is possible due to ongoing
activity after 22Z.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5N9oB9fyItfQoDuJHeaj6xF7NbDrzVNF8RShKXe4CACI_W_rzMJvmak6q2NtSp-kjYrqx3OBw5cGTATXBdAFIwiUj2Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40558342 40458176 40338034 40257857 39497892
38207991 37818051 38088295 38768444 39868473
40338421

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 18:54:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171854
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-180052-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1081
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...much of New Mexico, eastern Arizona, and far west
Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171852Z - 180052Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
and will continue to do so through the afternoon. A few instances
of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Radar/satellite mosaic imagery depicts
deepening/expanding convection across much of the southern Rockies
currently. The storms are primarily tied to terrain-favored
ridgelines initially, though a few areas across west Texas are
also tied to the presence of a mid-level vorticity maximum
providing ascent aloft in that area. Storms are embedded in very
weak flow aloft along with 1 inch PW values and 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE, supporting locally heavy rainfall with rates reaching
1-1.5 inch/hr at times. Unfortunately, some of this rainfall will
occur atop sensitive terrain and active burn scars that have been
facilitating excessive rainfall and flash flood impacts the past
few days. Given the aforementioned scenario and the expectation
that rainfall rates will exceed FFG (around 1-1.5 inch/hr) on at
least an isolated basis, a few instances of flash flooding are
expected through 01Z/7p mountain daylight time. Thunderstorms
along the Mogollon Rim should propagate southward toward/through
the Tucson vicinity as well this afternoon.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8jLT2SS1PRcJoTERsK0_9zReju4oE6LMNqHakYTy8V6awJn8dGdh8WrNPBs2hbfenu8j65UY4v-D1k3HFTen18ZwBx4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36840473 34160487 31800413 30630345 29660335
29480407 29870468 31020571 31610653 31780815
31310831 31461110 32201172 34021136 35990958
36790806

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 20:35:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 172035
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-180133-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...eastern Tennessee, southeastern Kentucky,
southwestern Virginia, far northern Georgia, far northeastern
Alabama, western North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172033Z - 180133Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are producing local 1 inch/hr
rain rates -- enough for isolated to scattered flash flood
potential through 01Z/9p eastern.

Discussion...Abundant surface heating/destabilization has led to
several areas of scattered thunderstorms across the discussion
area so far this afternoon. The storms are in a very
moisture-rich environment (2+ inch PW), with sufficient
instability (3000 J/kg MLCAPE) present for strong convection with
locally heavy rainfall. Appreciable steering flow (approx 25
knots from the west-northwest) has tempered rain rates in most
areas, although local backbuilding in southwestern Virginia and
the abundance of moisture has both prompted areas of 1-1.25
inch/hr rain rates at times beneath storms. These rates are
falling on wet grounds from prior rainfall with FFG thresholds in
the 1-1.5 inch/hr range -- suggesting isolated to scattered flash
flood potential especially given sensitive/varied terrain across
the region.

The ongoing convective and flash flood trends should continue for
a few more hours -- perhaps through 01Z/9p eastern or so. Weak
mid-level shortwave troughs just north of the discussion area were
aiding in convective development and will continue to do so
through the evening. Additionally, increasing convective coverage
should lead to a few mergers/backbuilding that will locally
enhance rainfall potential and rates at times. Models/CAMs depict
a downward trend in convective coverage after dark (00-01Z), and
the flash flood risk will likely follow that same trend.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4kAbkW2W1Uiudhjs59gpMUDD6--zpIfvowu7xNMbk2FCXjlPsy4UBaSveOrgFxPVdR2-EO2wT37DEFM5dvbOiz8K9PA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RAH...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37408225 37348076 36977998 36348013 35288213
34358470 34678602 35548676 36268578 37248421

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 22:53:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 172252
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-180150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
651 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia, southern Ohio, and
eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172250Z - 180150Z

Summary...Some potential for flash flooding will persist for a few
more hours along the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the area.
Latest radar/satellite depicts scattered showers and thunderstorm
activity continuing to migrate southeastward across the region.
Areas of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5-2 inch PW continue along
and just ahead of a front entering the region from the northwest,
supporting continued heavy rainfall. Despite the progressive
nature of this convection, ground conditions remain sensitive to
additional rainfall, and FFG thresholds are generally in the 1
inch/hr range (locally lower). The moisture/instability combo may
result in spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates at times, though most
areas are experiencing 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rates due to 20-25 knot
storm motions. It is not out of the question that a few
additional instances of flash flooding occur over the next 2-3
hours given the sensitive/wet ground conditions. A cold front
over southern Ohio and northern Kentucky will continue to sweep
southeastward, ending the threat of heavy precipitation from
northwest to southeast through the early evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4WiNSwjHcjnaD0i6AGRiTmt8gwVZmqTXdLMkLuN8fA1TQmQsQsUu4rPHsB7soOyhas4Hicvoe7kr3xoPYWJ_4az-7dk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39678188 39498008 38937946 38547946 37808012
37558188 37488305 38698374

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 18 10:38:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181038
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-181530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
637 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Far
Northwest Missouri...Ext Northeast Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181035Z - 181530Z

SUMMARY...Short-term window for repeating elevated thunderstorms
in the wake of dying MCS/Bow echo. Rates of 1.75-2"/hr for 1-2+
hours suggest a stripe of 2.5-3.5" is possible and may result in a
spot or two of flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR denotes a decaying MCS/bow echo across
SW IA into N MO with well defined shortwave while a few bands of
elevated convection are developing WNW to ESE along the
rear-inflow jet for a loose "Bow & Arrow" appearance. Steepened
WNW to ESE isentropic boundary from older outflow and flanking
line is now ideally oriented for strong orthogonal convergence at
850mb with slowly veering LLJ in WAA regime. The LLJ is per KUEX
remains above 30-35kts and resides along the surface to 850mb
q-axis with mid to upper 60s sfc Tds noted across central KS to
south-central NEB. CIRA LPW shows core of 700-500mb moisture
aligning with slightly elevated values through the lower two
layers (sfc-850, 850-700mb) resulting in the enhanced overall
available moisture for TPW at or just above 1.75" for the core.
Mid-level cooling aloft is helping to steepen lapse rates for an
elevated upwind axis of MUCAPE along and west of the upwind edge
of the developing convective line(s), suggesting a bit more
back-building is possible over the next few hours. Given 2000+
J/kg of MUCAPE, updraft intensity to help inflow/flux convergence
should support 1.75-2"/hr rates. A secondary 800-700mb band is
also developing along the far northeast edge of the deep layer
convergence and northern edge of the instability/moisture
graident. While likely a bit less, the orientation is also
slightly favorable for repeating.

Obviously, in a 'Bow & Arrow' complex, the mean steering flow
above 700mb is parallel to the ascent plane and will help to
support repeating/training convection. Hi-Res CAMs are persistent
in earlier veering of the low-level flow and weakening expected
through the next 2-3hrs, but this is also a typical bias that
doesn't often pan out and the balance caused by the LLJ and
steeper outflow influenced isentropic surface especially as
instability remains in the upwind convergence zone. As such,
expect a stripe of enhanced repeating/training to result in
2.5-3.5" totals across central to southeast NEB through the early
morning. Recent rainfall has reduced FFG values across the area
with 1hr FFG less than 2" for most areas and less than 2.5"/3hrs.
MRMS Flash unit stream flow already suggests a solid stripe of
200-400 cfs/sqmi through Valley and S Greely heading toward NW
Merrick county. As such, localized exceedance is possible
suggesting localized flash flooding incident(s) are possible too.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4dC6BACDh9doxZ7yUTfPKTaYeGZGSTOorEnfxuUUakkcFflOiZYRSAU81Ug4tKcBkhL1hWRMuOtxboqVagrkq8U8ku4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42069773 42009624 41429506 40719433 39959454
39759504 39799597 40079725 40469845 40919913
41479905 41609811

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 18 21:18:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 182118
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-190315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1085
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
516 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182115Z - 190315Z

SUMMARY...Growing organized convection across parts of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes through this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front will have the potential to produce hourly
rainfall rates up to 2.5" on an isolated basis. Repeating rounds
of storms containing these rates could produce pockets of 2-4"
rainfall totals and lead to at least isolated flash flooding
concerns.

DISCUSSION...Latest 2100Z radar and satellite observations depict
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms both along and
ahead of an approaching cold front crossing from the eastern MI
U.P. to far southern MN, with a weak wave of flow pressure
analyzed over northeast MI and the central MI U.P.. Mean layer
winds ahead of this front are out of the west and nearly parallel
to the approaching frontal boundary for some areas, which provides
potential for training/backbuilding storms for pockets prior to
the FROPA. Instability remains sufficient with SBCAPE of 2000-3000
J/kg in the region and MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg (per SPC's
mesoanalysis), with the greatest values over the inflow region of
IA and southern MN. PWs are also supportive of intense rainfall
rates with values widely above 1.5" into central WI and 1.75"
reaching into southwest WI. The primarily limiting meteorological
factor for heavy rainfall is the fast storm motions, so flash
flooding is contingent on the training/backbuilding risk.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs depict scattered coverage of 1-2" totals
through this evening, but with pockets of 2-4" amounts. This is
particularly evident in the 18Z RRFS across south-central WI.
Rainfall rates per MRMS have already reached up to 2.5"/hr across
southeast MN and going forward can be expected within the heaviest
cells. Backbuilding thunderstorms appear most likely across
southern WI as the front progresses southward and lays parallel
(east-west) to the mean flow by around 00Z. Another area to
monitor will also be located where the frontal boundary proceeds
to orient in a more east-west fashion across the Green Bay, WI
area and the northern MI L.P.. Regardless, mostly dry antecedent
conditions will keep flash flooding to a mostly isolated basis,
with urban centers naturally most at risk to impacts. FFGs vary in
this region, but are lowest (below 2" per 3-hrs) across southeast
WI and into northeast IL and may be more at risk by around 00Z
tonight.

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-b33h-NaQy_HdCe0ANU9_WpMB4WYqk7sBu26RWqxCJfIoBoK8ixkngnr4LJoOS0Ho_3XIQEcmY2vpXKJ8I637SfGrCE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DVN...GRB...GRR...LOT...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45588625 45568509 45388427 44978390 44518428
44058522 43408564 42478585 42138734 42388974
42829134 43269204 43709182 43919017 44458863
45318755

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 03:03:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190302
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1086
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northwest to Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190301Z - 190900Z

SUMMARY...An expanding axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
overnight is expected, with rainfall rates capable of reaching 2.5
inches/hour. This coupled with cell-training concerns will favor
an uptick in the threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with GLM/LightningCast data shows a rapidly developing and expanding
axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms across northeast KS and
into far northwest MO. This activity is initiating in response to
a low-amplitude shortwave impulse advancing eastward across the
central Plains.

This energy is interacting with nearby proximity of a frontal zone
draped across central KS through southern MO with an ejecting wave
of low pressure along it fostering the advance of a warm front up
toward the Lower MO Valley. The upper support with the shortwave
energy is also facilitating an uptick in a southwest low-level jet
which should get some nocturnal enhancement overnight. This will
drive a strengthening moisture and instability transport regime
over the warm front and should further support the expanding axis
of mostly elevated convection across northeast KS and into
northwest MO. This in time will begin to advance or develop
farther downstream into central MO as well.

Cell-training concerns in particular will drive the increasing
concern for areas of flash flooding as the expanding shower and
thunderstorm activity will be aligned well with the deeper layer
steering flow. The 18Z HREF/REFS consensus supports some spotty 30
to 50 percent probabilities of seeing the 3-hour FFG values across
the region exceeded, with most areas in the 10 to 30 percent
range. This will be aided by an environment conducive for rainfall
rates reaching as high as 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger storms.

Localized swaths of rainfall totals reaching 3 to 4+ inches can be
expected by later tonight, and as a result, there will be a
gradual increase in the potential for flash flooding including
impacts to some of the larger urban corridors. The Kansas City
metropolitan area will be among the areas at greatest risk over
the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7cKN7nYE_DtpJT2r0qFjRfwVJ_xMpFOZ1svCh1ado1nneJg-_ysoPTVgjQhyIQPN1bmAeRgL4hIwGBUT2DcEKmt0wVQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40099612 39999402 39719285 39129171 38529130
38069147 37869220 38449422 38869597 39109688
39719700

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 09:07:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190907
FFGMPD
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-191400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1087
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KS...Central to Southeast MO...Southwest
IL...Far Western KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190905Z - 191400Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
areas of eastern KS through central MO early this morning, with
eventually areas closer to the Lower OH Valley seeing some heavy
rainfall potential as well. Some cell-training concerns will
persist, and this will maintain a threat for flash flooding given
high rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar imagery shows an axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
with some cell-training impacting areas of northeast KS down
through central MO. The activity continues to be driven largely by
the ejection of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the central
Plains which is interacting with an elevated instability gradient
along and north of a warm front lifting gradually northeastward
ahead of a surface low center over southeast KS.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted in close proximity to
the axis of convection, with PWs across the region are 1.75 to 2.0
inches. A low-level jet remains persistent over the area with
values of 40+ kts aimed toward eastern KS through central MO.

Speed convergence associated with the low-level jet coupled with
the thermodynamic environment and about 40 to 50 kts of effective
bulk shear should help sustain the convective threat through at
least the early morning hours. GOES Proxy Visible satellite
imagery shows an agitated CU/TCU field extending back a little
farther west into areas of east-central KS. Steeper mid-level
lapse rates associated with an EML are impinging on this area, and
the latest GLM/LightningCast trend data shows an uptick in
convective potential across eastern KS that suggests new
developing areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next
few hours.

Alignment of the ongoing convective activity with the deeper layer
mean flow will continue to support areas of cell-training. In
time, the larger scale convective mass should also begin to impact
downstream areas of southeast MO, southwest IL and possibly even
far western KY by mid-morning. Rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour will likely continue with the stronger storms over the
next few hours, with some additional spotty storm totals of 3 to 4
inches possible.

Expect at least some potential for additional areas of flash
flooding over the next several hours as this larger scale axis of
convection continues off generally off to the east.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_d_tmHAMqC5AC6apx5L35p4hINe2ZcifoXxd8fPavZJv35Vxy04npEpAX7yFMtRV70krXn0sScaM9VNpWsskwFMUrhQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39369548 39149307 38679079 38128911 37578816
36988835 36748921 37289128 37879374 38359591
38629724 39149713

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 15:52:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191545
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-192100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1088
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest Missouri...Ext
Southwest Iowa/Northeast Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191545Z - 192100Z

SUMMARY...Stripe of enhanced heavy rainfall with small developing
cluster/MCS due to moisture flux convergence and quick burst of up
to 2-3" totals (1-2 hours) across recently saturated soils
suggests isolated flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...Cluster of rotating/broadening thunderstorms exiting
the eastern Sand Hills of northern Nebraska are starting to expand
with some upscale growth into a smaller, progressive MCS (as noted
in SPC MCD 2038). This upscale growth is supported by weak but
highly directionally confluent low level flow along a stationary
boundary that extends northeastward from St. Joesph toward Aurora
and into a mesolow near the cluster itself near Ord. Surface to
boundary layer Tds in the upper 60s to low 70s and modest
850-500mb moisture noted in CIRA LPW layers. Strong/sharpening
upstream shortwave combined with entrance to west to east 90 jet
provids strong upper level support to further expand to a broader
updrafts in the expanding cluster.

Downstream instability may be a limiting factor due to mid-level
cloudiness especially further south and east, but some clearing
immediately southeast of the cluster is starting to support some
surface heating and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg and slowly expanding
toward 2000 J/kg toward midday. Allowing for continued strong
updrafts, perhaps with isolated downstream development for
eventual repeating/mergers as the main cluster moves through.
Both conditions will increase local residency to allow for rates
of 1.5-2"/hr (given supercell/isallobaric enhanced moisture flux
convergence) to exist up to 2 hours as the cluster grows. As
such, localized totals of 2-3" are becoming more plausible
along/northeast of the front across SE NEB and eventually into NW
MO.

Hydrologically, this area has seen recent heavy rainfall and
saturation of the upper soil profiles with NASA SPoRT 0-40cm
ratios even up to 50-55% across the Loup Valley especially but
still in the 40s downstream into far SE NEB/Missouri Valley
proper. This is 75-85% of normal at this time of year and so
lower FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hr have good potential
of locally being exceeded. As such, spots of flash flooding are
considered possible through the afternoon hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8TtBQTCOrKdoog-T-kFrLjI6sdzEZY5cQHMGAopqBgjRVCEveF_OvJahQ-Weup7OdFJUYtovmuVnffHsEPxux7UOkWw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42029854 41779731 41169600 40849523 40409484
39909509 39809578 40129720 40949840 41549889
41889895

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 18:55:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191854
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-200050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1089
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191850Z - 200050Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms along a nearby frontal
boundary extending across the Midwest and Ohio Valley may contain
rainfall rates around 2"/hr at times. Totals could exceed 3"
through 8pm CDT in spots and lead to scattered instances of flash
flooding within a region containing saturated soils. Uncertainty
remains with respect to coverage of the most intense rainfall
rates and will be monitored in future discussions if the flash
flood threat appears more significant.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaic across the Midwest and
Ohio Valley depict smaller scale showers/thunderstorms developing
along a slow-moving frontal boundary across southern IA, with
scattered storms also developing within the warm sector across
central IL/IN. This is all occurring ahead of an approaching short
wave diving across IA/NE and pushing eastward. This feature will
help spark additional thunderstorms that will focus along and just
south of the aforementioned frontal boundary.

Rainfall rates are expected to reach up to around 2"/hr given
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.5-2.0" in the area. 850mb flow
is relatively weak and out of the west (5-15 kts), but will shift
throughout the late-afternoon and evening as a mid-level wave
crosses the region. This will not only provide more focus for
thunderstorms, but weaken the flow briefly and maintain a threat
for slow-moving cells and/or cell mergers. These ingredients
support maximum rainfall totals over 3" and within a region where
6-hr FFG remains mostly below 3" due to extreme rainfall over the
past week or so. 1-hr FFG is below 2" for most areas and even
below 1.5" in parts of central IL and east-central IN/west-central
OH. Should the most intense rainfall rates overlap with these
sensitive regions, flash flooding would be more likely and could
be locally significant. These details will continue to be
monitored.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9q0CR2M_YGxLIpPgBRuKdnTSZLW0pGFiHdws82tUGO2Ej6Z-NqERdR-0MmBsj7kFtEDN_EVA64EDL4_Kc7fkOEYesRw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41339045 41258798 41138562 40738393 39858395
39158655 39038930 39599182 39819468 40809469
41069292

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 21:00:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192059
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-200300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1090
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of Central/Southern AZ and Southwest NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192100Z - 200300Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across parts of east-central AZ and
west-central NM are forecast to track southwestward into the
evening hours, with additional storm development anticipated
across southeast AZ. This will produce the potential for scattered
flash flooding. Rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr are possible and
rainfall totals may exceed 2" in south-central AZ.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery depicts a corridor
of cooling cloud tops along the Mogollon Rim of
central/east-central AZ into the White Mts and adjacent
west-central NM. These storms are tracking slowly southwest around
a mid-upper high pressure system situated over northwest AZ. This
will move thunderstorms off the higher terrain and into more
susceptible terrain/populated regions of south-central and
southeast AZ. SBCAPE values per SPC's mesoanalysis are more than
sufficient for strengthening updrafts, with 2000-3000 J/kg
available (much higher than this time yesterday). PWs are also
widely above 1" and peaking above 1.5" in south-central to
southwest AZ.

Latest HRRR and RRFS guidance (RRFS wider coverage of storms and
more aligned with ongoing conditions) depict scattered 0.5-2.0"
totals through 03Z, with hourly rates up to 1.5". Isolated pockets
of over 2" rainfall totals are also highlighted and supported by
12z REFS/HREF probs around 30-60%. Given the dry washes and rugged
terrain in the region, any storms passing over this and any
urbanized locations could quickly lead to rapid runoff and flash
flooding.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5GWNL9cphV9JLkSM8X91ZKasiRWBSejEUre3XFWT9y3A-w7SXxFd1-mR1EtYLQQ_nsOfUMhXzisrh5YRXIILLCHbqe0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35131202 35081144 34451059 34191000 34190916
34520825 34300758 33730755 32680819 31690910
31251014 31181108 31371218 31931275 32891256
33851256 34581269 34921251

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 22:07:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192206
FFGMPD
OHZ000-200105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
605 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of Central OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192205Z - 200105Z

SUMMARY...A narrow corridor of thunderstorms producing maximum
2-3"/hr rainfall rates situated across central OH is expected to
continue for at least the next few hours and lead to
additional/worsening instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar across east-central IN and central OH
depicts an east-west oriented line of training thunderstorms
parallel to a nearby frontal boundary and moving along westerly
mean layer flow. MRMS highlights this axis has produced up to 4"
near Bellefontaine, OH. Given the continued development upstream
and within an axis of greater MLCAPE, these storms should continue
for at least a few additional hours until around sunset, when the
instability gradient weakens and a strengthening mid-level wave
over the Midwest interrupts the better forcing and shifts it to
the south.

As this training band of storms slides east and eventually
weakens, additional areas of flash flooding are likely given 3-hr
FFG largely below 2". Some locally significant flash flooding is
possible particularly due to central OH still recovering from
extreme rainfall amounts over the last week or so.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5gt3f-0eC6uS6ujNS0f8pzabN0T_0oX0Y-3CeTj6owVqZ9llD8FAaZ8uIpyFThNb8mZTEBVTYJWJmxm7zwPIii8dicc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40688420 40598302 40478214 40348169 40018187
40038297 40088411 40138473 40548472

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 00:00:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192359
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1092
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
759 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois and Indiana into far southwest
Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192355Z - 200555Z

SUMMARY...Training bands of thunderstorms containing rainfall
rates of 2-3"/hr are likely to continue into the overnight hours
across central IL and IN, which will likely lead to additional and
worsening flash flooding over the region. This is particularly the
case given the area experienced extreme rainfall amounts over the
last week and ground conditions remain prone rapid runoff and
ponding of water where intense rainfall rates occur. Locally
significant impacts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest 2330Z regional radar and surface observations
depict a cluster of slow moving storms over west-central IL just
ahead of a diving mid-level shortwave across the Midwest, while a
separate training axis of thunderstorms was located over central
IN into east-central IL just to the south of a west-east draped
stationary front. Meanwhile, PWs in the Ohio Valley and Midwest
remain around 1.7-2.0" south of this front with westerly mean
layer flow parallel to the aforementioned frontal boundary. This
creates a ripe environment for training/backbuilding
thunderstorms. Additionally, instability remains sufficient for
updraft maintenance with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg across central IL.

As the mid-level shortwave continues to push eastward this evening
and early overnight, it will also slide a bit south and tug the
better forcing along the frontal boundary a tad south as well.
While this will aid the immediate convection in central IN from
remaining locked in place for longer than a few more hours,
westerly mean layer flow should still promote additional axes of
west-east oriented thunderstorms. The cluster of storms over
west-central IL is also expected to maintain before merging with
central IN activity and increase coverage of intense rainfall.
Rain rates have reached into the 2-3"/hr range and is above local
FFG in the region that falls generally below 2" per 1-hr. These
values are particularly low given the wet antecedent ground
conditions in place after extreme rainfall over the prior week and
prompt the inability for grounds to soak in additional rainfall
before it starts to rapidly runoff/pond. This may lead to not only
numerous instances of flash flooding, but some significant impacts
as well into the overnight hours.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9PUL82oOMA1-q5R8ClMQ8x9O3lonlchC0VtySXdPO9R0aNKrZjd8boOR8oXjW3jvWmZa-ZL4AmmtulUmoSK0PL0iqMM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41279024 41078933 40728845 40488728 40378590
39988475 39438445 39108534 39288742 39748931
40309042 40969076

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 02:05:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200205
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200803-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1004 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western
Kentucky, far northwest Tennessee, and far southwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200203Z - 200803Z

Summary...Areas of training convection are expected to materialize
and cause instances of flash flooding through 08Z/3a central.

Discussion...Robust convective development was noted just
northwest of Poplar Bluff in the past hour. The convection was
likely tied to 1) increasing low-level flow across northeastern
Arkansas and resultant convergence in the vicinity of the
developing storms, and 2) the glancing influence of a passing
mid-level shortwave trough over northern Missouri. The storms are
also supported by very steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km based
on mesoanalyses and the most recent 00Z SGF RAOB). The lapse
rates and low-level moisture was supporting 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
and 1.8 inch PW, respectively, suggestive of heavy rainfall
potential. While storms may move eastward at an appreciable rate
initially (~30 knots), increasing low-level flow/convergence will
eventually support development of a complex of storms that
exhibits some elements of forward-propagation, training, and
backbuilding over time.

Some concern exists that areas of repeating/training heavy
rainfall will occur over southeastern Missouri, which as
relatively low FFG in a few areas (around 1-1.5 inch/hr) due to
rain that fell over the past 24 hours between Poplar Bluff, Cape
Girardeau, and points northwestward. FFGs are slightly higher
with eastward extent into Kentucky, although 2 inch/hr thresholds
should be exceeded especially where heavy rainfall can persist
locally. Flash flooding is expected in at least a few areas given
the scenario, with the threat spreading eastward from Missouri
(initially) through central Kentucky through 08Z/3a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8WWSXNSDMt417hTAkoK2yK6RRfti9IuCGl_GTj6yDnGie8AZqacsa0YSYCmMvfc3Ys2oaYjoESTIOC1m38JZ4Hd0Npc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38068828 37888666 37208599 36548631 36178936
36649195 37689183 37929056

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 02:08:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200208
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200803-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1007 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western
Kentucky, far northwest Tennessee, and far southwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200203Z - 200803Z

Summary...Areas of training convection are expected to materialize
and cause instances of flash flooding through 08Z/3a central.

Discussion...Robust convective development was noted just
northwest of Poplar Bluff in the past hour. The convection was
likely tied to 1) increasing low-level flow across northeastern
Arkansas and resultant convergence in the vicinity of the
developing storms, and 2) the glancing influence of a passing
mid-level shortwave trough over northern Missouri. The storms are
also supported by very steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km based
on mesoanalyses and the most recent 00Z SGF RAOB). The lapse
rates and low-level moisture was supporting 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
and 1.8 inch PW, respectively, suggestive of heavy rainfall
potential. While storms may move eastward at an appreciable rate
initially (~30 knots), increasing low-level flow/convergence will
eventually support development of a complex of storms that
exhibits some elements of forward-propagation, training, and
backbuilding over time.

Some concern exists that areas of repeating/training heavy
rainfall will occur over southeastern Missouri, which as
relatively low FFG in a few areas (around 1-1.5 inch/hr) due to
rain that fell over the past 24 hours between Poplar Bluff, Cape
Girardeau, and points northwestward. FFGs are slightly higher
with eastward extent into Kentucky, although 2 inch/hr thresholds
should be exceeded especially where heavy rainfall can persist
locally. Flash flooding is expected in at least a few areas given
the scenario, with the threat spreading eastward from Missouri
(initially) through central Kentucky through 08Z/3a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8t1tNDI1r4r0vaGziV9ckwXl9VJJ1cXD5D9K7ZfVASWRXA9eSHTKdgQ-cf0Ne_hpCxEGOFpCzSPU5o0J2SeZ-w601xk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38068828 37888666 37208599 36548631 36178936
36649195 37689183 37929056

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 03:24:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200324
FFGMPD
AZZ000-200722-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1094
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1123 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...central/southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200322Z - 200722Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose a flash
flood threat for at least another 2-4 hours (through 07Z).

Discussion...Convection has been persistent across the discussion
area over the past few hours -- particularly in eastern AZ where a
weak mid-level vort max and elevated instability (1000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) has supported continued updraft development. Recent radar
mosaic imagery suggests upscale growth into a slowly
westward-moving complex tending from along the Mogollon Rim near
Show Low south-southwestward to near Tuscon. The combination of
weak northeasterly flow aloft and persistent convection
(reinforcing outflow) will enable continued westward propagation
toward a gradually more moist airmass (1.4 inch PW) supporting
increasingly heavy rainfall rates. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates
are expected to migrate westward through Phoenix Metro and
surrounding areas along with southern Arizona desert areas.
Sensitive terrain and urban areas could experience instances of
flash flooding in this regime. Flash flood potential will exist
through at least 07Z/1a Mountain/midnight Pacific.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5_GXIxa-2o-hesvJtbidlcUxCLPcSM-gZwZhQ3M8m0MuVNsjy8oqk-qjIzAfPj1yfbCNG7WnflN0y1w5ISNhXFIdqRo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35671195 35421003 34050964 31660999 31501133
32311419 35271397

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 05:33:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200533
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-200931-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1095
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/southern Indiana, southern
Ohio, northern Kentucky, West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200531Z - 200931Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues along the Ohio Valley
and vicinity.

Discussion...While a relatively focused axis of moderate to heavy
rainfall persists from central/southern IN into southwestern Oh,
heavy rainfall is confined to a couple of areas: 1) near Dayton
and vicinity and 2) near Terra Haute. Both of these areas reside
along a low-level boundary that has been convectively augmented by
outflow from prior storms. Both areas of convection are making
slow, but steady progress eastward toward areas that have low FFG
from prior rainfall (near 1 inch/hr in southeastern OH, 1-1.5
inch/hr in southwestern OH and points westward). Light southerly
low-level flow ahead of these convective clusters was helping to
maintain areas of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 inch PW values ahead of
the complex, and sufficient instability exists downstream to
maintain convection to the Ohio River and OH/WV border region over
the next 3-5 hours or so. Given wet antecedent conditions, soils
capable of excessive rainfall, locally sensitive terrain, and
ongoing 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates (exceeding local FFG), flash
flood potential is apparent with this activity for the next
several hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5AECKYQ68chlGruxB6yJud7Gf7EaEHAzDKOOiFONSri_O6Mv0xEUF0F3tNo75qO9Ko-V-OSTkbqBm_3NKGEVEucYrvk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40648241 40268085 39338048 38348059 37798180
38858712 40258740 40488527

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 08:19:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200818
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-201417-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri, western/central Kentucky, western/Middle Tennessee, and far southern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200817Z - 201417Z

Summary...A mature convective complex remains capable of areas of
backbuilding and training. Flash flood potential continues.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery depicts a lead MCS from near
Bowling Green, KY to near Dickson and Dyersburg, TN. Additional
convection continues to backbuild near the Paducah and Cape
Girardeau, MO areas. Much of the convection continues to develop
in response to a southwesterly low-level jet over northeastern AR,
which was maintaining areas of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE on the western
sides of the convection. Low-level convergence was also maximized
an the northeastern side of this LLJ axis from southeast MO into
western TN. 1.9+ inch PW values and upstream mid-level lapse
rates near 7C/km continue to foster strong updrafts as well.
Areas of flash flooding remain possible, with the greatest
near-term threat focused across Cape Girardeau, Paducah, and
surrounding areas that are currently experiencing their second to
third round of heavy rainfall tonight. Spots of 1 inch/hr rain
rates are continuing to foster FFG exceedance in the areas.

Additional backbuilding is expected over at least the next 2-3
hours as the aforementioned AR LLJ veers and eventually weakens.
Westerly, unstable low-level flow will continue to provide a risk
of backbuilding convection especially across western/Middle TN.
Ground conditions are comparatively less sensitive in most areas
(drier antecedent conditions, 2+ inch/hr FFG thresholds),
suggesting that any flash flood risk may be tied to urban and/or
sensitive spots and may be more isolated in nature compared to
MO/KY although if backbuilding can be sustained across
western/Middle TN for multiple hours, the flash flood threat will
increase. The degree/extent of backbuilding and heavy rainfall
duration is a bit uncertain though.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6tnFcJuDM-3mmhPoiBOqp7K06VlXB-jCWmWEuHpNNt_Y8QTktsUNHxZtyHb4SGen-8j2AGmfD1bs74PO74Wv5bZb3Pg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JKL...LMK...LSX...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37908889 37778719 37218547 36458456 35328574
35068869 35308979 36529050 37719027

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 11:39:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 201139
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-201700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1097
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Ohio...Northern West Virginia...Western Maryland...Southwest to Central Pennsylvania...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201140Z - 201700Z

SUMMARY...Solid speed, directional and upslope moist flow along a
training warm advection wing of MCV proving to be efficient rain
producer at 1-1.5"/hr. Low FFG and relatively saturated upper
soils through rough terrain support possible incidents of flash
flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and surface observations continues to
show a core of enhanced efficient rainfall just downstream of a
tight compact deep layer cyclone near ZZV moving east. VWP and
RAP analysis shows broad 15-20kt SSW flow through the Ohio Valley
quickly turning south along a well defined west to east
convergence axis downstream of the cyclone to south-central PA.
This is aligned with enhanced .66-.75" surface to 850mb LPW per
CIRA. Though moisture and flux convergence is solid, much of the
mid-level instability has been limited to about 250-500 J/kg.
However, with a fairly high elevated freezing level/WBZ level, any
shallow convection has been efficient in low warm cloud processes
allowing for 1-1.5" hourly rates near the core.

Also with upslope flow and cyclonic curvature and downstream
convergence along the effective warm front has been producing
scattered warm advective showers pre-cursory to the wave. As
such, these showers may allow for additional .5" prior to arrival
of heavier rains. Spots of 1.5-2" are probable through the
morning. The concern is the area has seen prolific rainfall over
the last few weeks and soil conditions are about 55-70% saturated
per NASA SPoRT 0-40cm LIS product which is about the 80-90th
percentile. FFG values about 1"/hr and 1.5-2"/3hrs have good
possibility to be exceeded along the potential repeating
convergence axis suggesting incidents of flash flooding are
possible through the remainder of the morning into early
afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ANFhV2_jXNh0O0TcprpAumkIVdDlx3Sw-EczTT215vYgTbk2PwBy-mxBOPOk88SRPMWe5uBFWJYMV3oUBM5_6YgWxs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41207837 40787761 40097778 39777837 39527920
39208064 39438182 40208194 41067989

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 15:57:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 201557
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-202200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1098
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Eastern PA...Northern NJ...Northern DE...Central
MD...Northern VA...DC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201600Z - 202200Z

SUMMARY...Approaching, sharpening deep-layer cyclone to interact
with increasing Atlantic moisture expanding thunderstorm activity
capable of very intense thunderstorms capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates
and localized 2-4" totals, especially after 20z. Some repeating
near the front increases potential for higher totals. Proximity
to urban coridor suggests scattered incidents of flash flooding
will be likely.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad long-wave trough across
the Great Lakes tightening into a confluent zone on the northwest
side of sub-tropical ridge over the Eastern Atlantic. This
provides a solid dynamic environment with strengthening
upper-level jet well denote by broaden cirrus canopy over N PA/NY
for a 100+kt 3H jet. The right entrance ascent pattern will remain
strong and a short-wave with a mature MCV is moving quickly
through E OH into SW PA providing strong dPVA to further enhance
divergence and outflow aloft. The return flow around the ridge
is providing the strong thermodynamics off the western Atlantic.
CIRA LPW surface to 850mb shows strong surge of .8 to 1" LPW
across E VA into MD where is is intersecting with a synoptic front
and increasing FGEN across SE PA. Mid-level moisture from the
Upper Ohio Valley is starting to stream through the terrain and
strengthening 850-700mb southwesterly flow to over 35kts per VWP
network, bringing over .5"+ in that layer to bring overall TPWs
from 1.8", increasing toward/over 2" after 18z.

Currently, the MCV is moving quickly along the surface front with
that FGEN forced WAA along and downstream providing sufficient
lift for scattered weak showers along the front along/ahead of the
wave. This will provide an additional .5-1" prior to the core of
the deep wave MCV with strongest moisture flux convergence.
Additionally, the depth of the warm cloud layer is over 12Kft and
so even the weak instability below that layer combined with the
enchained low level moisture is supporting efficient rainfall
production, so as flux increases near the deep layer wave, the
rates increase to 1-1.5"/hr; resulting in a stripe/streak of 2"+
north of the front.

GOES-Visible imagery shows clearing through the northern
Shenandoah Valley into south-central PA, broken cloud coverage
over central MD may limit some insolation, but strong theta-E flux
through the Piedmont and Coastal Plain sees Tds increasing above
72-75F already and tight western gradient can be seen in analysis
fields. This will likely lift and intersect the boundary toward
the 18z time period and timing of the arrival of the MCV. As
such, thunderstorm activity is likely to increase in coverage and
definitely intensity providing stronger moisture flux. MLCAPEs
forecast over 2000 J/kg along the Chesapeake Bay into SE PA
combined with the 2" TPW should allow for 2-2.5"/hr.

Longer/best convergence near the front may allow for increased residency/broader updrafts capable for 2-4" totals in 1-3hrs.
Flash Flooding will become more likely also in timing with peak
intensity crossing lower FFG (1-1.5"/hr, 1.5-2.5"/3hrs) both due
to hilly terrain but also increasingly urban settings along the
I-95/Delaware River Valley. As such, scattered incidents of flash
flooding are considered likely after 19/20z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8RxiZ05MrRWBr2yOFp56P1k8oPoM_jWNce4ckgdaNymfcV3zfSW9e80y6CtMulgIbWPR3334y-FIwntWZ2BUrDgsG48$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41777507 41477428 40747406 40047469 39447565
39067650 38507742 38637811 39267814 39797792
40277865 40567878 40997858 41297789 41627671

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 19:34:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 201934
FFGMPD
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-202200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1099
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201930Z - 202200Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing ahead of the approaching cells
farther west are capable of producing rainfall rates up to 3"/hr.
Flash flooding is possible this afternoon, especially in poor
drainage areas and within more urbanized communities.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar and GOES East satellite show a cluster
of storms have flared up north of a coastal frontal boundary
located over the northern DelMarVa Peninsula and into the Delaware
Valley. The environment is ripe for highly efficient rainfall
rates. RAP mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE has risen between 1,000-2,000
J/kg from the heart of the Chesapeake Bay to southern NJ. PWs are
quite high, ranging between 2.0-2.2" over the coastal
Mid-Atlantic. Brisk SWrly 850mb winds will transport this pool of
anomalous moisture aloft into the rest of southern NJ, where
instability is increasing and dew points are reaching the low-mid
70s. These storms also have exceptional vertical wind shear aloft,
as effective bulk shear values are >40 kts and effective SRH
values are between 100-200 m2/s2. This environment does favor
potential mesocyclones within developing storms, which does help
to further enhance rainfall rates.

MRMS 15-minute rainfall totals are topping out around 0.75" in
some parts of northern DE and southern coastal NJ. This suggests
ongoing thunderstorms are capable of producing 3"/hr rainfall
rates. The concern for flash flooding comes from the potential for
discrete cells over southern NJ and the northern DelMarVa ahead of
the approaching storms from northern VA, central MD, and
south-central PA. The 18Z HRRR shows the potential for additional
cells over the DelMarVa Peninsula that may flare up along the sea
breeze boundary. These storms could briefly back-build before
heading north and east towards the Delaware Bay. Farther north,
the increase vertical wind shear and upper-level forcing ahead of
an approaching 500mb vort max will foster excellent ascent aloft,
allowing for additional storms from the west to reach southern NJ.

Flash flooding is possible this afternoon and into this evening,
given the highly efficient rainfall rates that are both ongoing
and are still to come in areas currently receiving heavy rainfall.
Poor drainage areas and locations with greater influences from
urbanization are most at-risk.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7_n4PG8XRmbtStlLbQrXrgKANS7kV2CdJ20NqSpHd197vsSFPIAUlajgV7laJxH_RzqeZvnCU3eQGudNkOcRSUiigg0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40487409 40457393 40347376 40157374 39817387
39277405 38877425 38427460 38347504 38407552
38477590 38577613 38697627 38837637 39047638
39157613 39247591 39457558 39567536 39727507
39887486 40097460 40277443 40437424

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 21:56:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 202155
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-210330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1100
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 202200Z - 210330Z

SUMMARY...A strengthening low-level cyclone will tap into copious
amounts of atmospheric moisture and increasing instability to
produce excessive rainfall rates up to 3"/hr. Flash flooding is
likely this evening in parts of the heavily urbanized I-95
corridor. Locally significant and life-threatening flash flooding
is possible, especially north of the storm track.

DISCUSSION...GOES East satellite imagery shows a blossoming area
of strong-to-severe storms over southeast PA that are racing
towards the Delaware Valley, with additional storms heading for
the NYC metro. These storms are a byproduct of a volatile
atmospheric setup: a potent 500mb shortwave trough and a 250mb jet
streak's diffluent right-entrance region are providing excellent
upper-level ascent, while a strengthening low-level cyclone in
eastern PA happens to coincide within a highly unstable and
tropical air-mass.

PWs will range between 2.0-2.25" from the I-95 corridor on east
along the NJ Shore and as far north as the Tri-State area. Dew
points in southern NJ and the northern DelMarVa are in the low-mid
70s as well. MUCAPE is highest over the DelMarVa and southern NJ,
but a narrow area of 500-1,000 J/kg MUCAPE is available from
Trenton on north and east to Long Island. Effective bulk shear is

40kts and effective SRH is >100 m2/s2, giving storms the

potential to develop mesocyclones within them. 20Z HRRR area
averaged soundings show warm cloud layers at least 13,000ft deep
and low-mid level RH values >90%. These parameters are indicative
of an atmosphere primed to produce thunderstorms with highly
efficient warm rain processes, which when occurring over a region
that is highly urbanized, is ripe for flash flooding.

Over the next hour, storms will continue to move east through the
I-95 corridor and towards NJ. As the 850mb low moves east and
strengthens, WAA on its eastern flank will lead to wrap-around
anomalous moisture on its northern flank, placing parts of
northern NJ and east towards the NYC metro under a deformation
axis of 925-850mb FGEN aloft. This area of low-level FGEN is
already evident on SPC RAP mesoanalysis, and will continue to move
east this evening. Beneath the 925-850mb FGEN, a narrow corridor
of intense rainfall rates will unfold with hourly rates around
3"/hr likely. New 18Z HREF guidance suggests as high as 30-50%
chances for 1-hr and 3-hr FFG exceedance in northern NJ on east
through the NYC metro this evening.

Portions of northern DE and southern NJ already dealt with storms
over the past couple of hours that have saturated their soils.
Additional storms moving through will contain 2-3"/hr rates and
could cause additional flash flooding, especially in southern NJ.
Farther north over northern NJ, the NYC metro, and eastward to
Long Island, there is increasing concern for at least a couple
hours of 2-3"/hr rainfall rates before finally tapering off close
to midnight. These areas are most at-risk for locally significant
and life-threatening flash flooding with rapid water rises
possible on roads. This could in turn lead to worsening impacts to infrastructure that makes commuting challenging through the
evening hours.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_gxWXUfpmML6m8wAXp0iuji_aQFstiZrZY4YZ31jWWsckYKiUkS6nYrpvvvAoI4iLFhp9eLwAsJDKMWKyqGxx1SMa0w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41667357 41587303 41407282 41077270 40677273
40067320 39317360 38867413 38537468 38177552
38137625 38527733 38947704 39527620 40407602
40667596 41017559 41127488 41327443 41657388

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 03:51:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 210350
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-210949-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1101
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1149 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Alabama into northern
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210349Z - 210949Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists with a recently
developed cluster of convection near the Huntsville area. This
convection will slowly migrate eastward while producing areas of
1-1.75 inch/hr rain rates.

Discussion...Deep convection has increased in coverage and began
to congeal into a cluster near the Huntsville, AL area over the
past hour. The storms have formed near a cold front along the
TN/AL border and were being supported by weak ascent associated
with a mid-level wave over Middle Tennessee and a very
moist/unstable airmass along and ahead of the front (2+ inch PW,
3000+ J/kg MLCAPE), supporting efficient rainfall processes
beneath the storms. Furthermore, the storms were in an
environment characterized by weak steering flow aloft (10-20 knots
on average), supporting slow storm motions. The convective
cluster was exhibiting signs of congealing over the past 30
minutes or so, with multiple mergers and slow cell movement
fostering areas of 1.5+ inch/hr rain rates.

Over time, the congealing of this convective cluster should result
in gradual east/southeastward propagation toward northern Georgia.
Downstream areas contain FFG thresholds of around 1.5-2 inch/hr,
which could be exceeded at times given the favorable airmass and
slow cell movement. Downstream areas of sensitive terrain or
urban land surfaces may also be slightly more susceptible to flash
flooding. This risk should exist for at least a few hours tonight
-- perhaps through 09Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9m7-KLQPiZREhtKs-MhWIGy7rLUU3qbUejq8DY44DvJfkQ5eGKxtd78Dt_6Pe2uhj51Tw05Dhi4ZgvJZKH82oZxknsM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35088541 34878407 34438365 33768398 33458587
33918739 34908722

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 15:56:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211556
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-212145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1102
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Much of the Carolinas...Adj. East Central
Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 211545Z - 212145Z

SUMMARY...Environment for colliding boundaries and sufficient
organization to support 2-2.5"/hr rates with occasionally locally
higher 3"/hr rates probable. Potential for above normal scattered
incidents of 2-4" likely to result in localized flash flooding,
especially near multiple large metro areas through the Piedmont.

DISCUSSION...A favorable moist and unstable environment with
multiple sufficient dynamic elements to help generate strong,
efficient rainfall producing thunderstorms exists across the
Carolinas this afternoon. GOES-E WV suite shows a convectively
enhanced shortwave/MCV at the base of the larger scale trough
currently in Western NC along the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians with a positive tilt trough/orientation back across
central GA. This wave is lifting northeastward behind the initial
convective line. This convective line remains progressive across
SW VA with an outflow/convergence boundary draped southward across north-central NC. A surface front intersects the coast near
Jacksonville, NC before reaching a well defined surface low
northeast of Florence, SC; while the upstream stationary front
remains well defined toward Augusta, GA. However, a differential
heating boundary exists across north-eastern NC (east of the
aforementioned outflow boundary), so while post-frontal, solid
insolation and Tds in the low to mid-70s remain allowing for an
expanding wedge of SBCAPEs across much of eastern and central NC
with tight gradients and rising to 2500-4000 J/kg from near
Charlotte to the SE NC coast. The last piece of forcing is
related to failed convection/outflow boundaries across central SC
lifting northward off the surface frontal boundary; though
sea-breeze may be a contributing factor though not established at
this time.

Being at the base of the long wave trough with elongated
shortwave/vorticity feature along the Appalachians will support
and expanding right entrance region mainly across NC throughout
the early afternoon providing further divergence and deep layer
effective bulk shear around 25-30kts, suggesting a bit more
overall organization and less pulse-like up/downdrafts further
north across the area. However, with overall TPW values of
2-2.25" pooled along the boundary and toward the Atlantic coast,
the modest surface to boundary layer directional convergence may
over-come the weaker overall speeds but allow for quick vertical
ascent and moisture loading. Quick conversion to 2-2.5"/hr rates
are initially possible near the boundary. However, with the
shear/outflow and multiple colliding boundary potential, slow
moving, merging clusters should evolve allowing for localized
enhanced residency and occasional up-tick in rates toward 3"/hr
locally. By 21-22z, there should be scattered areas of localized
2-5", with higher areal concentration generally north and east of
the surface low, near the front.

Hydrologically, the most prone areas/lowest FFG align with the
Fall-line from Augusta to Columbia to Charlotte to Raleigh-Durham
all of which have a solid potential of being intersected by
thunderstorms. Given hourly FFG values less than 2" and 3hr
values of 2-2.5" if directly under the slow moving cells will
likely result in incidents of rapid inundation/flash flooding.
While FFG values are much higher eastward into the Coastal Plains,
FFG value of 3-4"/3hrs still may be exceeded given HREF
probability of 3"/6hr remains above over 50-60% within 40km of any
given point in the MPD area of concern and further expands to over
80% if extending out to 00z. All in all, a wet afternoon/evening
will see incidents of flash flooding but they may be more locally
focused at least initially.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ETGedN8zjbOvNmTcDZE9PGlmhPw2h4zc9p77JvLDVB5jJ3O5FQgCZASfMQ4ZiX4PmRtyuuTpvDqkD5c_W12gWv75E8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36167792 35707692 34857645 34687682 34417736
34187768 33807790 33737871 33767967 33498070
33138221 33528310 34688278 35818112 36087928

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 18:55:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211855
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-220100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern Rockies

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211900Z - 220100Z

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms over the Southern Rockies will
generate ~1"/hr rainfall rates in the most intense cells. Some
mountain ranges were hit with heavy rainfall last night, making
soils more susceptible to flash flooding. Flash flooding is
possible this afternoon with burn scars most at risk.

DISCUSSION...GOES East satellite shows bubbling towering cumulus
over the Southern Rockies that are starting to produce
thunderstorms over the Sacramento, the Mogollon and Gila
Mountains, and the CO Rockies. The Southern Rockies are set to see
developing storms in an increasingly unstable environment that
will contain >500 J/kg SBCAPE and PWs >0.75". The region dealt
with rounds of storms yesterday, causing soil moisture percentiles
to exceed 80% per NASA SPoRT-LIS. There is a little less
instability than yesterday, however with recent rainfall causing
soils to be more sensitive than yesterday, localized flash
flooding could occur where rainfall rates approach 1"/hr within
slow moving storms.

As outflows emanate away from the first round of storms this
afternoon, additional storms may flare up in the early evening
hours. Flash flooding is possible again this afternoon, primarily
in areas with more saturated soils and the typical worrisome areas
(burn scars, steep terrain).

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_QsqiKdlAieq4uP2DfkqygiDos39ZNBKduYxP0NdrVqq6pmElRnPXk7eGDD_rMF-Le6VKwj-Szkx0GjzigmsmJGP0ys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38730653 38520552 38100513 37210505 36510520
35570545 34890535 33530532 32790540 32610594
32690621 33250620 33720623 34080687 33790733
32990760 32750822 32830866 33140895 33910898
34240895 34950890 35570871 35450808 35570753
36110736 36700753 36920787 37210815 37410839
37580862 37860875 38250873 38440862 38440818
38290740 38310677

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 19:31:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211931
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-220030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1104
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Central to southern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211930Z - 220030Z

Summary...Recently fired convection across central Georgia could
produce flash flooding downstream through Southeast Georgia, where
favorable instability (2000-3000 ML CAPE) & moisture (1.5-2"
PWATs) are present.

Discussion...Convection initiated along a pre-frontal surface
trough oriented West to East across central Georgia. These storms
are expected to propagate southeastward into a substantially moist
and unstable environment. Precipitable water values between 1.5-2
inches in southeast Georgia/northern Florida combined with a mixed
layer CAPE environment of 2000-3500J/Kg will support rates in
excess of 2"/hr

Hi-res guidance suggest a scattered heavy rainfall footprint with
pockets of 1-2" rates and isolated 6 hour totals of 2-4" in parts
of southern Georgia. Flash flooding is possible, especially in
vulnerable areas from recent rainfall and poor drainage spots.

Kebede

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_3JQ6Q0r4zPscfAl44KVKzdULQ9jSQdd2OOlRlV-QLcuSjMNOIxW0M7NuZdUxS749Na9VMKvvlOpb9kUIGR03Xv8CQE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33638271 33628209 33378161 32748154 31888180
30878254 30368368 30458479 30838548 31428570
32038532 32658418 33128337

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 20:01:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 212001
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-220200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1105
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212000Z - 220200Z

SUMMARY...Robust and slow moving thunderstorms will be capable of
producing torrential rainfall rates >3"/hr this afternoon and
evening. Flash flooding is possible, especially in poor drainage
areas and in more urbanized settings.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis showed a surface convergence
boundary located just north of I-10 with a cold front farther
north and working its way south. GOES East and Doppler Radar show
thunderstorms have formed in an environment that is primed for
producing torrential rainfall rates. RAP mesoanalysis shows PWs
are >2.0" and MLCAPE ranging between 2,500-4,000 J/kg. 18Z HRRR
area-averaged soundings within the at-risk area show warm cloud
layers nearly 14,000ft deep and RH levels within the 1000-500mb
layer are likely to top 80%.

Storms are forming within an environment that will see increasing
850-300mb mean winds out of the NW, directing any storms north of
I-10 towards the I-10 corridor this evening. Storm motions will be
slow at their onset, with MRMS instantaneous rates >3" in some of
these initial thunderstorms. Slower moving cells could generate

3"/hr rainfall rates before either dissipating or drifting south

towards the Gulf Coast. FFGs are fairly high in southern LA and
southern MS, with some areas in southern AL and the FL Panhandle
that have 1-hr FFGs <2.5". Given the higher FFGs, soils will be
able to handle most of the intense rates. That said, areas where
storms are slow to move could lead to flash flooding in poor
drainage areas and in more urbanized areas (ex: New Orleans/I-10
Corridor). Flash flooding is possible in these areas through the
early evening hours.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4nH2liy1Ah1AslCW-kxRzvpb5A6W9bkbgTy8TzmRj54VCqIppgTqzraHHnUvB8qRgbEoDOQVKVSv0T0oLTgjcB9v3Ik$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32649186 32629118 32479074 32289032 32198996
32108920 32138828 32178802 32288730 32188679
32088633 32018597 31888565 31608565 31318575
31168613 30988635 30728674 30458705 30218767
29758878 29678942 29668989 29719055 29929106
30419152 30859188 31359217 31839222 32389217

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 21:13:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 212113
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1106
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern & eastern Nevada...western Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212110Z - 220300Z

Summary...Storms initiating along a pair of surface convergence
axes oriented north-south from the Desert Southwest into the
southern Great Basin respectively could produce flash flooding
within zones of favorable ambient moisture, instability and soil
moisture.

Discussion...Radar indicated convective cells initiating across
the state of Nevada will continue propagating northward within the
broad anticyclonic flow of an upper level ridge centered over the
Four Corners this evening. Shortwave impulses embedded within the
larger scale ridge will fuel storm initiation/development through
the Great Basin.

Cells initiating along a surface trough near Elko appear to also
be forced by shortwave energy aloft. Favorable precipitable water
values between 1-1.3" could be sufficient enough to wring out
enough rainfall to produce isolated instances of flash flooding
over relatively dry soils. A pool of 500-1500 J/Kg ML CAPE over
southern Nevada will continue to support the enhancement of cells
that initiate along the inverted surface trough running through
the region over the next few hours. PWs between 1.5-2" are more
than enough to generate flash flooding over the arid southern
Nevada environment.

CAMs suggest cells capable of producing rainfall rates of 0.5-1"hr
over eastern and southern parts of the state over the next few
hours.

Kebede

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8xiGg9JlpDnUJPrqJeK2nTunZ0g6MKJWXc_8qRf0JPorGAnMxTSrrufIR995ypZu26xo9Q2sMso2axJgmrXfCEvWqC4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40701429 40211358 39171369 38081369 36811361
36191432 36101536 36601613 37561660 38691672
39871625 40551548

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 21:41:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 212141
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-220330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1107
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 212135Z - 220330Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding are likely this
afternoon and evening as thunderstorms produce rainfall rates up
to 3"/hr. Locally significant impacts are possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES East shows numerous thunderstorms from eastern
GA on north and east through the Carolinas and into southeast VA.
RAP mesoanalysis highlights a tropical air-mass over eastern NC
and central SC with PWs between 2.2-2.5" in place. Despite storms
having used up some of the available instability, MUCAPE continues
to show 1,000-2,000 J/kg from northern NC to the central NC, and
2,000-3,000 J/kg from central SC on east through southern and
eastern NC. HRRR area-averaged soundings show warm cloud layers up
to 14,000ft deep, indicating a fairly deep column of highly
efficient warm rain processes ongoing.

The frontal boundary responsible for initiating these storms over
the heart of the Carolinas, along with outflow boundaries nearby,
will continue to develop additional storms through the early
evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing 2-3"/hr
rainfall rates in areas that are seeing soils quickly saturate.
Storms will move ENE towards the Carolina coast and storms may
propagate far enough north to approach the VA Beach/Norfolk area
this evening. Additional flash flooding is likely with locally
significant flash flooding possible, especially in areas where
back-building and training thunderstorms occur.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-0uhGj688aOQIM9zjnbI47amsaSfuQBhFGKLVP2_SOlR76nSgl__ehxwNLIO78YaofB_vkOY84g-rqU-VswztSI4PLU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36947662 36937609 36847583 36667569 36137556
35607537 35207550 34887579 34547630 34407661
34377703 34327719 33957768 33377802 32797946
32548037 32568129 32658184 33048217 33318214
33568194 33858153 34478093 35038058 35638029
36107959 36167922 36427880 36557839 36737766

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 22:35:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 212234
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-220400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1108
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
634 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern WI...Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212230Z - 220400Z

SUMMARY...Potent thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front
will be capable of producing up to 2"/hr rainfall rates and
localized max rainfall totals of 2-3" through this evening. Some
training thunderstorm activity is possible, potentially leading to
areas of flash flooding this evening. Urban locations and poor
drainage spots are most at-risk.

DISCUSSION...22Z surface analysis showed a cold front racing south
and east through the heart of the Midwest being the culprit for
initiating scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Some
storms have formed out ahead of the front in far southern WI and
northern IL as well. RAP mesoanalysis indicates the air-mass ahead
of the front is highly unstable with MLCAPE approaching 3,000 J/kg
over Iowa's nose. PWs are above 1.5" from the IA/IL border on east
across northern IL. The 12Z DVN sounding showed a sounding
favorable for discrete cells with effective layer shear between
35-40 kts and effective SRH >100 m2/s2. The sounding also showed
the warm cloud layer was generally 10,000ft deep.

Between the shear, more shallow warm cloud layer, and drier
mid-level RH values, the soundings suggests the environment
overall should limit the areal extent of the flash flood
potential. Not only that, but mean cloud layer winds are 26 kts,
so most storms will be moving along. That said, storms firing
ahead of the cold front have moistened some of the soils in
southern WI and northern IL to the point where additional storms
that have produced between 1-1.5"/hr rainfall rates. 1-hr FFGs in
some of the more urban areas of southern WI and northern IL are as
low as 1.5". Latest 18Z HREF does show some low-to-moderate chance probabilities (20-40%) for 3-hr QPF surpassing 3-hr FFGs near the Chicago/Milwaukee metros.

With these storms also encroaching upon the more populous areas of
southern WI and northern IL, excessive rainfall rates approaching
2"/hr could lead to flash flooding in poor drainage areas within
more heavily urbanized environments. Given those factors,
progressive but potentially multiple rounds of storms could lead
to some cases of flash flooding this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Q4fg3DQJjQL5KUna1-7Wi3x0V-DyRkW3POtQtGREqnD-XkSooKRJjXWss6zF73nd1IsNKvQYntWlCgIb3pUlEFJFCY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43968929 43898887 43808864 43608831 43368800
42808769 42358764 41978761 41628771 41298823
41188900 41318984 41499039 41619076 41879125
42269135 42609111 42899066 43419019 43678993
43898968

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 11:12:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221111
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-221630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1109
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...Central Oklahoma...South-Central Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221110Z - 221630Z

SUMMARY...Narrow band of slow moving elevated storms with
favorable orientation for possible repeating along the I-35
corridor places a few urban centers at risk of possible localized
flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and regional RADAR shows expanding line
of scattered cooling tops oriented favorably along/near the I-35
corridor from south-central KS into Central OK. Tops have been
cooling fairly quickly nearing -70C aligned with core of deep
layer moisture but also conditionally unstable air with spine of
2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 1.5-1.75" total PWat. CIRA LPW animation of
Sfc-850 and 850-700mb layers show this weakly curved arc of
enhanced moisture. Low level flow is generally parallel to the
band through 850mb, though 700mb westerly flow is more orthogonal
to the moisture/instability axis likely convergent near the base
of the elevated instability within the vertical profile to seed
the scattered development. Low level southerly to
south-southwesterly inflow response likely further helped to
deepen the vertical depth of the cells, so given the shear though
the layer; cell motions have been slow.

Additionally, while the RAP shows some modest divergence aloft,
animation of GOES-E WV shows a very tight anticyclonic ridge axis
through western OK; likely providing greater than analyzed
divergence for further vertical ascent and outflow for some weak
organization and maintenance of the updrafts. So many conditional
elements have come together for greater than forecast convective
development this morning per Hi-Res CAM suite. While the 09z RRFS
has backed off, the 06z run was more in line with this evolution
and given the natural bias of the RRFS to be a bit more aggressive
with convective initiation in a capped environment (relative to
other CAMs, esp. the HRRR), this seems to be a solution to provide
some guidance in the near-term.

Given the instability, rates and 15-20kts of 700mb flow (as well
as southerly 20+kts of boundary layer inflow), moisture flux is
supporting 1.75-2"/hr rates. However, the weak inflow and veered
profile does hint at weaker overall deep layer convergence, so
updrafts are a bit narrower than ideal for repeating training.
Still, the 700-400mb steering flow along the shortwave ridging in
W OK, may allow for some locations for repeating, though slow cell
motions will likely be the best way to result in increased
residency for spots of 2-4" totals. Given the recent dry
conditions FFG values are higher with exception of north-central
OK where 3hr values are 2-2.5" compared to 3-4"+ further south.
Still, the placement of the line is nearly directly along I-35 and
places larger urban centers in proximity from Wichita to Ponca
City/Stillwater into the Edmond/OKC/Norman areas. So, if ideal training/repeating can align, these will be the areas of greatest
localized flash flooding potential this morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4mdLFXAfqzyTZHNYrztkM78ZL07jvd05XKuNAZiUHvcyDa2btJ4sl_MCid49r0JJMGc1HkoXUvz4fj3-_QgE_mRSKoQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38439827 38119752 36419658 35169636 34199677
33989742 34339778 35449759 36679785 37479818
38149842

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 13:48:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221348
FFGMPD
MIZ000-221930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1110
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
947 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...Lower Peninsula of Michigan...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221350Z - 221930Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms capable of 1.5"/hr with
localized slow motions further north and back-building/repeating
further south may allow for localized flash flooding concerns
through early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows a broad longwave trof centered over
the LP of MI this morning with a stronger upstream shortwave
digging out of WI providing height-falls and
strengthening/sharpening of the surface low near the Mackinaw
Strait with an attendant cold front angling southwest just
crossing the far southeast side of Lake Michigan into SW MI at
this time. A upstream exiting MCV between Lake Erie and Ontario
allows for broadening downstream portion of the longwave trough
with solid diffluence aloft to promote ascent along and well ahead
of the cold front. Instability has been a limiting factor
through eastern MI but RAP analysis modified by recent surface
temperatures suggests weakly capped 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
reducing to 250 J/kg in far E MI, with initial, early morning
convection exhausting much of it. However, that convection helped
develop a WSW to ENE boundary and with favorable southerly
component to low level winds and available unstable air has been
able to develop stronger flanking development with somewhat
favorable orientation to the deep layer mean flow to increase
residency.

Surface Tds in the low 60s and modest mid-level moisture with the
effective warm conveyor pressed eastward is limiting overall
available moisture to around 1.25"; so localized convergence/flux
will be the driving force for rates of 1.5" with occasionally
higher localized peaks. This is falling generally over the core of
the sandier soils of central LP where FFGs are high, but proximity
to urban locations along the I-96 corridor may still pose urban
flash flooding, but at least prep the area for later developing
convection from the cold front toward early afternoon.

Further north, as the shortwave sharpens the mean steering flow
will reduce in the trough especially along/east of the
strengthening surface wave. So cells will increase in residency
toward NE LP. This is also where FFGs are naturally a bit lower
with spots of 1-1.5"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hrs. As such, with
multiple rounds and possible mergers due to the sharpening/pivot
in the line, localized totals of 2-3" are possible and may result
in localized flash flooding concerns toward afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4xiNpVCFzN2qThmE28vTqjO539G32q2S7CzUK7cGTEMXSWszUwgDYZqu0rpyflaj49cKB7d3FfV2XdPYQYsTv_mAUb0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...GRR...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45408442 45358357 44998319 44348316 44148285
43718246 42678240 42378281 42188307 42148364
42158500 42578530 43298490 43808493 44228553
45058512

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 14:50:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221450
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-222030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1111
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...Middle to Lower Chesapeake Bay Region...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221450Z - 222030Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving/training warm-cloud efficient rainfall
production to 2.5"/hr pose localized flash flooding with 2-4"
totals in 1-3hrs.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV and Regional RADAR shows a shortwave
feature moving northeast in the warm conveyor belt southeast of
the tip of the Delmarva Peninsula; while the expanding right
entrance region of a 80-90kt 300mb jet remains directly overhead.
This direct circulation is tightening (FGEN) a SW to NE
convergence/deformation zone across South-central MD into southern
DE. An axis of modest but sufficient low level unstable air
existed through the lower Chesapeake Bay with a wedge of 1000 J/kg
of MUCAPE residing along this axis of deep layer moisture
convergence. As such, shallow thunderstorms developed across
Charles to N Calvert county and extend through the Bay toward
Talbot county. The shallow nature though with solid moisture flux
through channeling up the Bay supports efficient
tropical/warm-cloud rainfall production to support 2-2.5"/hr
rates. In addition, localized frictional convergence along the
edges/inlets of the Bay has resulted in more scattered/isolated
but equally efficient heavy rainfall producing cells. Deep layer
steering and fairly stationary right entrance region suggest slow
forward propagation through the Bay toward the Eastern Shore over
the next few hours.

Observations so far of 1.5 to 3" in about 60-90 minutes and while
the area is fairly sandy in soil type, MRMS Flash response is
reaching 200-300 cfs/sqmi suggestive of localized flash flooding
may be starting soon. Hi-Res CAMs all generally show a core of
2-4" additional totals through 21z, mainly focused directly over
the Bay and nearby coastal areas, though some solutions hint of
higher localized totals of 5"+ as well, suggesting flash flooding
will remain possible into the afternoon hours across the Delmarva
Peninsula, Southern Maryland and the northern Neck of VA.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6_YOVvD65o7Ijq40qETmzOtIav92mqyLNb1lghxYAoYJ0ST4_2nEbsCdGsChgVp5-Z48O8FZnZU3QcvKuSMa9TqzXMY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38917573 38667525 38287505 37747541 37497564
37467600 37797669 38177699 38567702 38907660

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 18:01:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221801
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...North & Eastern OH...Western PA...Far Western
NY...Far Northern WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221800Z - 222300Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms capable of
1-1.5", suggest random intersections resulting in widely scattered
spots of 1.5-2.5". Low FFG (<2"/3hrs) and larger urban areas
suggest incidents of flash flooding are possible this afternoon
into evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows broad long-wave trough across the
Great Lakes with an upstream strengthening/digging shortwave
crossing Lake Michigan which is starting to result a developing
triple-point in central LP of MI as the main surface low in NW
Lake Huron continues to strengthen. A southern stream
wave/vorticity center is well defined across south-central OH
helping to direct the effective warm front from near CLE to ZZV
and UNI eastward with enhanced low level moisture and higher
Theta-E air pooled along it, with MLCAPEs reaching 2000 J/kg,
where warm conveyor belt moisture is also peaked around 1.3-1.5"
for TPW. Surface to boundary layer convergence from SW to SE
across the boundary has resulted in broad convective development
though cells updrafts are broadening, they remain widely spaced
with some hints of multiple north-south oriented bands.
Increased convergence near lake-breeze off Erie, further enhances
shower activity. Given the moisture and solid instability rates
of 1-1.5" are more likely, but totals will probably be in the 1"
range given forward propagation/cell motions eastward are
expected.

Upstream, initial cluster of thunderstorms over SE MI is sliding
into the slightly increased unstable air over north-central OH,
while further convergence along the cold front across
south-central MI into NE IND is starting to build overall as well.
Compared to the warm front, mid-level moisture is a bit less and
overall TPWs are closer to 1-1.25" but directional and speed
convergence may allow for cells to be comparable to the eastern
warm front band, but still similarly progressive and likely to
result in peak of 1" totals; so no one cell is likely to exceed
even the lower FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr. However, given the
increasing coverage and broadening updrafts intersecting
footprints from each round may allow for widely scattered spots of
1.5-2.5" by 00z and with 3hr FFG in the 1.5-2" range especially
along I-70 in central OH to W PA (~2/3hrs across N Ohio) incidents
of exceedance are considered possible this afternoon into evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!57BK0MC42KRlVZxL4NhL7XX9JpU-ovFItYT1XQaeCpEuColPVwMAaN6hwbXx_1lzuSXdDF5VwKb5i9iaWicukw2eNRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42607899 42237837 41297833 40787882 39067998
38988142 39398255 39898334 40788374 41398370
41718319 41558246 41838140 42168054 42278010

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 20:49:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 222049
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-230215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...central Rockies into the High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222046Z - 230215Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms will be capable of isolated to
scattered flash flooding across the central Rockies into the
adjacent High Plains through the evening. Rainfall totals of 0.5
to 1.0 inches in 15-30 minutes with 1-2 inch totals are expected.

DISCUSSION...2030Z visible satellite and area radar imagery showed
widely scattered thunderstorms underway across northern NM into
eastern UT, western/central CO and southeastern WY into the
adjacent High Plains of WY/CO. The environment across the region
contained near average to 150 percent above average moisture per
blended TPW imagery from 19Z. MLCAPE was relatively weak over the
terrain, about 250-750 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis data and the 18Z
GJT sounding. Instability was higher but mostly capped across the
High Plains due to warm temperatures near 700 mb and insufficient
moisture in that layer. However, the Rockies were also situated
beneath a ridge centered along the CO/NM border with weak cell
motions of ~5 kt or less from northern NM into eastern UT and
central CO. Wind speeds and shear increase across southeastern WY
into eastern CO where greater capping currently exists, but a
narrow region of greater instability and weaker inhibition was
located along the Front Range into the Laramie Range where some
stronger and slower moving cells were observed.

Expectations are for continued thunderstorm development over the
next couple of hours with slow and erratic movement around the
ridge. In addition to slow movement, outflows and storm mergers
will likely contribute to briefly enhanced rainfall rates with
15-30 minute totals in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range. Given effective
bulk shear of 25-30 kt from southeastern WY into portions of
northeastern CO, better potential for cell organization will exist
across these regions but so does forward speed especially with any
congealing clusters of cells that should forward propagate,
limiting rainfall duration. Isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding will remain a possibility, especially should there be
overlap of slow moving cells with sensitive burn scars.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Zs5kwTXQeNzWCgqbkgYtAIc_2hyeCsnz91tEuty7eJq9cBJBlc8cfvuHYcqJU4eGJ1zU7x5BZKqX4Wib6Hyqgh5PwY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB...RIW...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42720586 42610469 42130407 40790382 39080421
37920438 36880488 36260618 36390794 37350961
38730992 40330926 41900765

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 00:47:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230047
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-230515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1114
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
847 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...central PA into central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230042Z - 230515Z

SUMMARY...A threat of flash flooding will continue over the next
few hours from portions of central PA into central VA. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3
inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level water vapor and GLM imagery from 00Z showed
scattered thunderstorms from eastern OH/WV into PA and portions of
west-central VA, located out ahead of the base of an amplifying
upper trough advancing across the OH Valley, with a couple of
leading vorticity maxima at the leading edge. Radar imagery showed
a few slow moving and repeating cells over west-central PA and
north-central VA (Green, Madison and Culpeper counties) resulting
in a broken north-south axis of FLASH Unit Streamflow responses of
200 to 400+ cfs/sq mi and likely a few areas of flash flooding
embedded within. Many of these cells are about to be overtaken by
eastward propagating boundary from the west, located from near
Philipsburg, PA to Cumberland, MD to Waynesboro, VA, advancing
between 25-30 kt toward the east. However, the environment out
ahead of the advancing line contained 500 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE
(highest to south) and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches via the 00Z LWX
sounding and the 00Z SPC mesoanalysis, resulting in localized
hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches.

As the mid to upper-level trough continues to advance east early
tonight, thunderstorms will follow suit with movement from west to
east over time. Decreasing instability with time for some
locations (especially northern and eastern PA) combined with
mostly progressive cells should limit the flash flood threat.
However, increasing instability over northeastern MD into
southeastern PA and the potential for convective development out
ahead of the main thunderstorm axis and/or alignment of cells with
the mean southwesterly steering flow may result in peak hourly
rainfall in excess of 2 inches. Total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
expected from central PA into central VA, but portions of the
northern Mid-Atlantic into eastern PA have received above average
rainfall over the past week (200 to 400+ percent of normal).
Therefore, locations with above average soil moisture, coupled
with any urban locations, will be at higher risk of flash flooding
should brief training setup through ~05Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!94Psq17KuIqjhoQNtSLrC3FCYxk2wUKBMWAiEAvo3EEiDUpaMUgvKZ-MJmDHxiJiNE3-8n1YOia3M5dCIYE_BThk43U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41867775 41867665 41397598 40857568 39927567
39137678 38227790 38357902 39667855 40297843
40987830 41657826

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 04:52:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230452
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-230900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania, southern/central New Jersey, and Delaware

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230450Z - 230900Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will continue -
especially as thunderstorms spread eastward toward populated areas
of the I-95 Urban Corridor through 09Z/5a eastern.

Discussion...A line of thunderstorms has persisted through much of
the night across much of the northern Mid-Atlantic and currently
extends from near Lancaster to near Frederick, and from near
Waldorf across the Chesapeake Bay to near Cambridge, MD. The
storms are being aided by ascent associated with a negative-tilt,
longwave trough extending from Lake Huron to West Virginia along
with instability from a very moist downstream airmass in place
across the Mid-Atlantic (characterized by 1.5+ inch PW and ~500
J/kg MLCAPE). While most convection was linear in character, a
few spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates exist in north-central Maryland,
while new shower/convective development has recently appears
across southern NJ and vicinity. This suggests a likelihood for
persistence of these convective bands with eastward extent toward Wilmington/Philadelphia and vicinity, posing a risk of urban flash
flooding beginning in the 06-07Z timeframe. Persistence of
convection northeastward from that point is in doubt, however, as weaker/negligible buoyancy exists from central NJ northward.
Isolated/spotty flash flood potential exists with this activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9VlsxbDoy-GkKgCwKniPjovFkORCyFeLhkXlbP_TOTbqVK_AKhG1tcXaxgrz5ZoYCHHNdU-CmPk7httOg6_ZnMbZxF4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40477461 39797430 38467503 37887572 39137660
39737701 40377562

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 06:05:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230605
FFGMPD
SDZ000-WYZ000-231003-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...southwestern South Dakota and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230603Z - 231003Z

Summary...A conditional risk of flash flooding exists with
scattered storms near the Rapid City area.

Discussion...Deep convection has materialized over the Black Hills
vicinity over the past couple hours - very near the WY/SD border
region. The storms are persistent despite larger-scale ridging
aloft, and are primarily tied to mid-level shortwave troughs
traversing the region, focused convergence on the nose of 20-25 kt
850mb flow across the High Plains, steep (7+ C/km) lapse rates
aloft, and 1.5 inch PW in the vicinity of the storms. While these
storms were fairly localized, spots of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates were
estimated per MRMS recently with the activity. Furthermore, the
meso- and synoptic-scale features forcing the convection (mainly
the 850mb convergence into the region) should change little over
the next 2-4 hours. These factors suggests a continued risk of
heavy rainfall from Newcastle WY to Rapid City and across the
Black Hills, with flash flooding becoming possible should rainfall
develop in locally sensitive areas through 10Z/5a central. FFG
thresholds are as low as 1-1.5 inch/hr in spots across the
discussion area, which should also be threatened at times beneath
the most persistent heavy rainfall axes.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5oUCizJMqLC6DpG1RmPDXcFsvatWpefS4Uh_kLu3volEeSZ0WI8QRZLCelcg3-9QUiQfBTC--g7hHeuEzoLqBGlCMlA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 44660340 44340196 43590160 43090231 43260464
44400487

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 08:09:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230809
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-231107-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and far
southern New York State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230807Z - 231107Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential continues.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a convective band
sweeping through southeastern PA into western NJ (including the
Philadelphia area). On the southwestern flank of this band,
enough training occurred for rain rates to peak into the 1-1.5
inch/hr range just southwest of Philadelphia, prompting at least
isolated impacts and local MRMS Flash responses. The downstream
airmass is marginally supportive of deep convective with
northeastward extent, though some concern remains the local
backbuilding could still occur through central NJ where 500-1000
J/kg MUCAPE exists per mesoanalyses. While a primarily urban
flash flood risk continues, the greatest chance of impacts will
exist from Philadelphia through Trenton and perhaps Newark through
10Z/6a eastern. It is worth noting that FFG thresholds drop
substantially in northeastern NJ, and rates as low as 0-0.25
inch/hr could cause impacts there.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6GuZ8ujHWI5wb3ho2lkd2Fw4WUu14MYJy8SNq_rynPPDpcAbPKhyOP1JqhxcU2WQDOkZPFRf4Rl3uWalC1Ivgo_hvEA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41617415 41467350 40747342 39697428 39157491
39577542 40947533 41337491

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

Who's Online

Recent Visitors

Rixter
Sun Aug 23 01:43:44 2026
from Madison, Nc via Telnet

Geek2
Sat Aug 22 22:03:19 2026
from Euclid, Oh via Telnet

Rixter
Sat Aug 22 21:23:27 2026
from Madison, Nc via Telnet

Rixter
Sat Aug 22 09:06:38 2026
from Madison, Nc via Telnet

System Info

Sysop: Amessyroom

Location: Fayetteville, NC

Users: 74

Nodes: 6 (0 / 6)

Uptime: 29:38:46

Calls: 1,120

Calls today: 1

Files: 1,341

D/L today: 7 files
(12,240K bytes)

Messages: 273,676

MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

Who's Online

Recent Visitors

System Info