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  • DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 07:30:40 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 130730
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 130729

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
    VALLEY...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND CAROLINAS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Saturday from the
    central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper ridge is forecast to remain anchored over parts of the
    southern Plains and lower MS Valley vicinity on Saturday. A
    warm-frontal zone initially extending from IA into the OH Valley is
    forecast to move northward as a warm front, while the western
    extension of this front may remain nearly stationary across the
    central Plains. Farther north, a weak surface low is forecast to
    move across northern MN, as a trailing cold front begins to move
    southeastward across parts of the Dakotas and eventually into parts
    of MN/IA/NE.

    ...Central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest/Ohio
    Valley...
    Another day of at least isolated severe potential is evident on
    Saturday along the periphery of the upper ridge. However,
    predictability is typically low regarding the details within this
    regime, and generally modest midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer
    shear may tend to limit the magnitude of severe potential. A broad Level-1/Marginal Risk has been included where the greatest relative
    severe potential is currently expected, though confidence in the
    details is low.

    Despite the relatively modest lapse rates, rich low-level moisture
    will again support moderate to strong buoyancy near and north of the
    front extending from the central High Plains into parts of the
    Midwest/Ohio Valley. Given the generally modest deep-layer
    flow/shear and nebulous large-scale ascent, any greater organized
    severe potential may be dependent on optimally timed MCVs moving
    along the periphery of the ridge.

    Early-day convection across IA/MO may pose some severe threat,
    especially if any storm cluster is able to propagate along the
    frontal zone into parts of the OH Valley. Some guidance suggests
    that an MCV may develop across the central High Plains late
    D2/Friday and move east-northeastward across parts of NE/IA/southern
    MN through the day Saturday, which may aid in storm development
    near/north of the front during the afternoon/evening.

    Farther west, diurnal storm development is again expected in the CO
    Front Range vicinity, which could result in some storm clustering as
    convection moves across the central High Plains Saturday night.
    Given the favorable low-level moisture and buoyancy, the strongest
    storms within any of these regimes could pose a threat for damaging
    winds and perhaps isolated hail, though it is also possible that the
    bulk of convection remains somewhat disorganized, due to relatively
    weak deep-layer flow/shear.

    ...Southern/central Appalachians and Carolinas...
    Modest northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will overspread a moist
    and moderately unstable environment across parts of the
    southern/central Appalachians and Carolinas during the afternoon. A
    few stronger cells/clusters capable of damaging wind will be
    possible within this regime.

    ..Dean.. 08/13/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 19:39:18 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 131939
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 131937

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
    SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Saturday from the
    central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

    ...Central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest/Ohio
    Valley...
    Two MCV features are forecast with one within the central Plains and
    another near southern Lake Michigan early on Saturday. These MCVs
    will interact with a moist airmass north of surface boundary. While
    the MCV moving into the Mid-Missouri Valley be moving into areas
    that will have been affected by the lead MCV. Destabilization during
    the afternoon in Iowa/Illinois is not certain, but a few strong to
    marginally severe storms could develop.

    Depending on the evolution/track of the lead MCV, destabilization
    within parts of the Ohio Valley appear more probable. The main
    questions continue to be early precipitation/cloud cover and where
    the MCV will track relative to the greater buoyancy. A corridor of
    greater severe potential could develop in parts of eastern Indiana
    into Ohio, though confidence is still low at this time.

    ...Colorado Front Range...
    A moist airmass will remain near the higher terrain. Scattered
    convection is again possible from the Front Range into parts of the
    adjacent Plains. Deep-layer shear will still not be very strong.
    While convection may be somewhat disorganized, the strongest storms
    could produce hail and isolated severe winds.

    ...Southern Appalachians...
    Given the moist airmass, scattered storm development within the
    higher terrain is possible. Modest northwesterly flow aloft may
    allow a few strong to marginally severe storms to move off of the
    terrain and pose a threat of wind damage.

    ..Wendt.. 08/13/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 06:38:48 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 140638
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 140637

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0137 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

    Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
    MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE HIGH PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms are possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley
    to the Mid-Atlantic, and across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and
    evening.

    ...Mid-MS Valley to Mid-Atlantic...

    An upper trough will modestly deepen over the Great Lakes and
    Northeast on Sunday, resulting in weak mid/upper height falls.
    Moderate westerly flow aloft will overspread a seasonally moist
    airmass as a surface front sags southward across the Midwest and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions through the period. At least a couple
    MCVs may be located within this broader region of enhanced westerly
    flow from the Mid-MS Valley to the Northeast. These features, along
    with the southward-moving surface front will be a focus for
    scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening.
    While details remain uncertain, the overall kinematic and
    thermodynamic parameter space will support strong to severe storms,
    mainly capable of damaging wind gusts.

    ..High Plains...

    Moist upslope flow will once again support isolated to scattered
    thunderstorm development across the High Plains on Sunday. Upper 50s
    to low 60s F dewpoints will result in moderate destabilization. Flow
    through around 500 mb will remain weak, but vertically veering wind
    profiles, and westerlies increasing with height above 500 mb will
    support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt and
    elongated/straight hodographs are evident in forecast soundings.
    Isolated strong to severe storms mainly capable of producing large
    hail will be possible.

    ..Leitman.. 08/14/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 19:39:34 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 141939
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 141938

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0238 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

    Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
    THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are possible within the Mid-Atlantic and in parts of
    the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

    ...Mid-Atlantic...
    Embedded within broad northwesterly flow aloft, a mid-level
    shortwave trough will promote the development of a surface
    trough/modest low within the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. This trough
    is expected to extend southward into the Blue Ridge during the
    afternoon. Some convection will be possible in the northern
    Mid-Atlantic on Sunday morning. Outflow/differential heating from
    this activity will combine with the surface trough to promote
    scattered storm development during the afternoon. Mid 70s dewpoints
    and temperatures reaching the 90s F in some locations will lead to moderate/strong destabilization during the afternoon. Moderate
    mid-level flow should support at least modestly organized storms
    which could eventually evolve into one or more clusters. Wind damage
    will be possible with this activity.

    ...Central High Plains...
    A surface high behind a cold front will keep easterly surface winds
    into the higher terrain of the central Rockies. Low-level moisture
    may be a touch higher than previous days (perhaps low 60s F) along
    with warmer surface temperatures. Effective shear from the Front
    Range into southeast Wyoming will be 35-40 kt with long hodographs.
    Given the potential for a few supercells during the afternoon,
    severe probabilities have been increased in the area with greatest
    confidence for large hail/severe winds.

    ...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
    Thunderstorm development is probable along parts of southward-moving
    cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Even with only
    weak/modest shear parallel to the front, a southward propagating
    cluster or two may develop given the frontal motion. The primary
    uncertainty is where this will occur given lack of stronger
    convergence along much of the boundary. With steep low-level lapse
    rates south of the front along with moderate to strong instability,
    damaging winds would be possible with these storms.

    ..Wendt.. 08/14/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 06:33:02 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 150632
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 150631

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0131 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

    Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
    NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
    evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and
    parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.

    ...Northern/Central Plains vicinity...

    An upper shortwave trough will pivot eastward across central Canada
    on Monday, with weak height falls forecast across parts of the
    northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes during the evening.
    Modest boundary layer moisture (50s to low 60s F) is forecast ahead
    of a southwestward-advancing surface front. As strong heating occurs
    through the afternoon and northwesterly flow aloft increases,
    moderate destabilization will support widely scattered storm
    development ahead of the surface front. Steep midlevel lapse rates
    and around 30 kt effective shear magnitudes suggest organized
    isolated cells capable of hail will be possible, in additional to
    sporadic strong outflow gusts.

    ...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas...

    A very moist airmass will be in place across the southern
    Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast ahead of
    southeastward-advancing surface cold front on Monday. Areas of
    strong heating will support moderate to strong destabilization as
    thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the afternoon.
    Vertical shear is expected to remain modest, but strong instability
    amid steep low-level lapse rates and PW values near 2 inches may
    support isolated strong/severe microburst winds and convection
    spread southeast with time through early evening.

    ..Leitman.. 08/15/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 19:32:12 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 151931
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 151930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

    Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
    NORTHERN PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
    evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and
    parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.

    ...Central to Northern Plains...
    As an upper low moves into northern Ontario, gradual height falls
    will occur into the northern Plains on Monday. Midlevel
    northwesterlies of 40-50 kt will be common over the Dakotas and MN,
    with 30 kt flow southward toward I-80. A cold front will move across
    the Dakotas and into MN, with the front stalling over NE. Dewpoints
    in the 60s, strong heating and steep lapse rates will favor areas of
    moderate instability ahead of the front, with storms developing late
    afternoon. Scattered cells may produce large hail along this
    boundary, with an additional threat of damaging winds and possibly
    evening MCS over NE.

    ...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas...
    Mid to high level winds of 20-30 kt will remain over the region on
    Monday, with relatively warm temperatures aloft. Still, substantial
    moisture will remain in place, with areas of moderate instability
    developing as the surface trough deepens. An uncapped air mass and
    convergence along the wind shift will support scattered afternoon
    storms, and some may produce locally damaging gusts as they travel southeastward through the evening.

    ..Jewell.. 08/15/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 06:44:40 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 160644
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 160643

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0143 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
    are expected on Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the
    central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

    ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity...

    Height falls are expected across the region during the afternoon
    into Tuesday night as an upper trough continues to dig across the
    Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow
    aloft, and a deepening surface low over KS. Rich boundary layer
    moisture will be in place ahead of a south/southeast-advancing cold
    front. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by
    afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates, with
    vertically veering wind profiles supporting 40+ kt effective shear. Elongated/straight hodographs are also present in forecast
    soundings. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and
    severe gusts. With time, sufficient clustering could occur ahead of
    the front as a low-level just increases during the evening, and MCS
    development may occur.

    ..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 07:20:18 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 160719
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 160719

    Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0219 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

    CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
    are expected on Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the
    central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

    ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity...

    Height falls are expected across the region during the afternoon
    into Tuesday night as an upper trough continues to dig across the
    Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow
    aloft, and a deepening surface low over KS. Rich boundary layer
    moisture will be in place ahead of a south/southeast-advancing cold
    front. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by
    afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates, with
    vertically veering wind profiles supporting 40+ kt effective shear. Elongated/straight hodographs are also present in forecast
    soundings. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and
    severe gusts. With time, sufficient clustering could occur ahead of
    the front as a low-level jet increases during the evening, and MCS
    development may occur.

    ..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:16:06 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 161936
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 161936

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0236 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
    CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
    are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central
    Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.

    ...NE/IA/KS/MO...
    Moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the region, with
    some cooling aloft late in the day. Low pressure will develop over
    western KS into southwest NE ahead of a convectively enhanced front
    which will drop south across I-80 in NE/IA. The presence of morning thunderstorms may further augment the boundary, and lends
    uncertainty to positioning. However, a plume of strong heating will
    exist as southwest low-level winds develop during the day near an
    east of the surface low, and strong instability may develop across
    the warm sector.

    The area over NE appears quite favorable for supercells given some
    model progs, with deep-layer shear to 50 kt, and increased SRH near
    the boundary. Given the expected southeastward storm motions,
    supercells could remain on any such boundary, with isolated tornado
    potential. Very large hail may also occur with the late
    afternoon/early evening cells before likely mergers into an MCS,
    which may produce damaging winds as far south as northeast KS and
    northern MO.

    Given uncertainties, will maintain 15% coverage, but with
    conditional CIG1 area.

    ..Jewell.. 08/16/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 14:05:46 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 170645
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 170644

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0144 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and
    strong wind gusts from eastern Colorado into parts of Nebraska
    Wednesday afternoon/evening.

    ...Central Plains...

    Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on
    Wednesday. In the wake of a prior cold frontal passage, easterly
    low-level winds will maintain modest boundary layer moisture across
    the High Plains, with somewhat deeper moisture further east into
    central NE. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will overspread
    the region, and a corridor of moderate to strong instability is
    forecast. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective
    shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs are evident in
    forecast soundings. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
    expected to develop within the low-level warm advection/upslope flow
    regime during the afternoon into the evening. Isolated large hail
    and strong outflow winds will be possible.

    ...Mid-South vicinity...

    An MCV may be located over KS Wednesday morning. This feature will
    migrate eastward as a surface boundary sags southward across parts
    of the Ozark Plateau into the Lower OH Valley. A corridor of rich
    boundary layer moisture will be in place near the surface boundary,
    promoting a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability.
    However, forecast soundings indicated capping may rapidly increase
    downstream of the Ozarks into southeast MO and western TN/KY. It is
    possible that a narrow corridor of severe potential could develop
    somewhere from the Ozarks into the Mid-South as the MCV and surface
    boundary impinge on the area. However, confidence is low, precluding
    severe probabilities at this time.

    ..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 19:32:52 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 171932
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 171931

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0231 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
    THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail, and
    strong wind gusts from the central/northern Plains to the
    Mid-Mississippi Valley. A tornado threat may also exist across the
    Ozarks to Mid-Mississippi Valley.

    ...Central High Plains to the northern Plains...
    Moderate instability with moderate to effective shear will be
    present across a large portion of the central High Plains into the
    northern Plains on Wednesday. As a weak mid-level shortwave trough
    crosses the region, storms are expected to develop across the
    Colorado Rockies and move into the adjacent Plains Wednesday
    afternoon. A hot, well-mixed environment will support severe wind
    gusts, but given the moderate to strong mid-upper level flow, a
    supercell could develop which would have a greater hail threat.

    Farther north, storm coverage is less certain as heights are
    forecast to rise slightly through the afternoon. However, a front
    will exist across the region which may be a focus for isolated
    storms. The wind profile should support supercells with any activity
    that develops. The primary threats with this activity would be large
    hail and severe wind gusts.

    ...Central Plains...
    Convective coverage is less certain across the central Plains as it
    is removed from the primary surface features. However, a supercell
    environment will be in place and some guidance (such as the RRFS,
    ECMWF, and FV3) have storms in this vicinity, likely related to
    outflow from morning convection across Nebraska. If these storms
    form any supercells would be capable of large hail and severe wind
    gusts.

    ...Ozarks to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
    A more focused corridor of storms may develop along a frontal zone
    across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Moderate to strong
    instability is forecast with a 50 to 55 knot mid-level jet streak
    across the region. Supercell should be the primary storm mode with
    any activity within this zone. In addition, this activity could pose
    some tornado threat as hodographs show moderate low-level
    directional shear and a warm front in the region.

    ..Bentley.. 08/17/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 18 07:28:58 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 180728
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 180727

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
    THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
    CAROLINA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Thursday from
    Minnesota into Nebraska and northern Kansas, producing large hail
    and localized wind damage. Scattered storms may also produce locally
    severe gusts from eastern Virginia into North Carolinas.

    ...Northern Plains...
    An upper ridge will build over the West on Thursday, with tightening
    midlevel height gradient over the northern Plains. This will result
    in increasing winds out of the northwest, with over 40 kt at 500 mb.
    At the surface, a trough/wind shift is forecast to extend roughly
    from MN into NE, with steep lapse rates developing. Storms will
    likely form along this boundary during the afternoon, with scattered
    cells producing large hail. Some predictability issues exist amongst
    models, and therefore will defer a categorical upgrade to later
    updates. The combination of 40+ kt of deep layer shear, steep lapse
    rates and 60s F dewpoints may support hail at or above 2.00"
    diameter.

    ...Eastern VA and NC...
    A mid/upper wave will cross the Appalachians as a surface trough
    develops during the afternoon. This will bring midlevel winds of
    30-40 kt across MD/VA and into northern NC, aiding deep-layer shear
    as well as overall mean wind speeds. At least isolated severe storms
    appear possible from eastern VA into NC where 70s F dewpoints will
    support moderate instability, with favorable afternoon timing
    supporting localized wind damage.

    ..Jewell.. 08/18/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 18 19:31:56 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 181931
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 181930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS
    PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO
    UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of
    the Mid Atlantic and north central Great Plains into Upper Midwest.

    ...Discussion...
    In advance of weak, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly
    approaching the Pacific coast, mid-level ridging may continue to
    amplify northward through the northern U.S. and Canadian Rockies, to
    the north of a prominent mid-level high slowly shifting northeast of
    the Four Corners through this period. Downstream, broad mid-level
    troughing is forecast to begin to gradually shift to the north and
    east of the Great Lakes and Northeast, but weak lingering troughing
    upstream may continue dig southeast of the middle Mississippi/lower
    Ohio valley toward the southern Appalachians. One or two,
    convective generated or augmented, perturbations may accelerate
    northeastward out of the Ohio Valley through the northern Mid
    Atlantic after emerging from the latter regime. In their wake, it
    appears that a surface frontal zone will continue a southward
    progression, reaching the southern Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf
    States and southern Great Plains Red River Valley by 12Z Friday.

    Based on latest model output, convective potential through this
    period still appears relatively limited, or at least uncertain due
    to its dependence on sub-synoptic developments with low
    predictability at this time frame. As a result, the prior outlook
    for this period has largely remained unchanged.

    ...Mid Atlantic/Southeast...
    Latest model output suggests that stronger pre-frontal
    destabilization to the east of the Appalachians may be confined to
    the coastal plain, from northern North Carolina through the Delmarva
    Peninsula. Coupled with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow
    and forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching convectively
    augmented perturbation, the environment may become conducive to
    thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

    ...North central Great Plains into Upper Midwest...
    A narrow corridor of stronger destabilization appears at least
    possible ahead of a short wave perturbation digging within modest
    northwesterly mid-level flow. It is possible that this could become
    sufficient to promote a risk for widely scattered strong storms with
    potential to produce severe hail and wind late Thursday afternoon
    into evening.

    ...Southwest...
    Mid-level flow may transition to at least a bit more of a component
    to the south of east during this period, but still potentially
    conducive to propagation of convection off the higher terrain of
    central and southeastern Arizona, given sufficient destabilization
    in lower elevations. This remains uncertain due to potential
    impacts of convection Wednesday through Wednesday night, so will
    hold off on adding low severe probabilities for wind at this time.

    ..Kerr.. 08/18/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 07:38:28 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 190738
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 190737

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday
    afternoon over parts of the Carolinas. Isolated to scattered
    damaging hail and wind may occur over parts of the central Plains.

    ...Central Plains...
    Northwest winds aloft will increase across the central and northern
    Plains on Friday as a shortwave trough glances the area, and an
    upper ridge builds to the west. Temperatures aloft will also cool
    across this region, with -10 C at 500 mb pushing south to I-70 by
    Saturday morning.

    Strong and heating and a surface trough will develop during the
    afternoon across the northern to central High Plains, with southeast
    surface winds across the Plains. Sufficient moisture should remain
    in place for moderate instability to develop across much of NE and
    surrounding areas.

    While storm coverage is a bit uncertain, the conditional threat of
    large hail is high with elongated hodographs and deep-layer shear
    over 50 kt. Storms should form near the surface trough over
    southwest SD into northwest NE, and proceed southeastward. Swaths of
    damaging hail and wind are forecast.

    ...Carolinas...
    A weak upper trough will affect the northeastern quarter of the
    CONUS, with 20 kt midlevel winds extending south into the Carolinas.
    A front is forecast to move south across NC, with low pressure into
    SC an GA. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front,
    with mid 70s F dewpoints. Daytime heating will yield strong
    instability, with a strong signal for convection along this
    boundary. Numerous storms may occur, with strong to severe outflow
    winds.

    ..Jewell.. 08/19/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 19:09:46 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 191909
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 191908

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0208 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated to scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch
    diamter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central
    Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some
    with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of
    the Carolinas.

    ...Central Plains...

    Northwest flow aloft will strengthen further on Friday, with 40-60
    kt at 500 mb common across the Mid-MO Valley. At the surface, low
    pressure will develop along surface troughing across western NE/KS.
    Rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place across eastern NE/IA
    and southward across the Lower MO Valley. A plume of steep midlevel
    lapse rates will reside across the High Plains and spread eastward
    toward the MO River during the evening. These steep lapse rates atop
    the moist boundary layer will support a corridor of strong
    instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Meanwhile, forecast soundings
    indicate supercell wind profiles with nearly 50 kt effective shear
    magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs.

    Initial supercells should develop near the surface trough over
    southwest SD/northwest NE, and shift southeast through evening,
    posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts.
    Forecast guidance depicts a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet
    developing across KS overnight. This may maintain clusters/promote
    upscale growth into an MCS during the nighttime hours, spreading
    southeast toward northwest MO by Saturday morning. If this occurs,
    damaging wind potential could increase/become the predominant severe
    hazard overnight.

    Additional more isolated storms could develop ahead of a
    southward-advancing cold front across Iowa overnight. Any storms
    that develop will likely be elevated, but will form in an
    environment supporting severe hail.

    ...Southeast...

    Scattered to numerous storms are forecast within a very moist and
    unstable environment along a surface trough extending northeast to
    southwest from NC into GA/southeast AL. Vertical shear is expected
    to remain very weak. Nevertheless, a mix of single and multi-cell
    convection will pose a risk for wet microbursts during the afternoon
    and early evening.

    ..Leitman.. 08/19/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 07:32:12 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 200731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 200730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
    OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
    NORTHWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the
    Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the
    Northwest on Saturday.

    ...Upper OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes...
    An upper trough will dig across the Great Lakes/OH Valley on
    Saturday with a 50 kt backside speed max in the midlevels from MN
    into IL. While winds aloft will be weaker farther east, cooling
    aloft will overspread the entire region. Meanwhile, a cold front
    will push across Lower MI, IN and OH during the day, with a plume of
    1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing. This will support clusters of storms
    with strong to severe gust potential. The cool temperatures aloft
    and effective shear to 30 kt may also support marginal hail.

    ...Parts of eastern WA...ID...western MT...
    A shortwave trough will move across the Northwest on Saturday, with
    a 50-60 kt midlevel speed max moving across the region along with
    cooling aloft. This trough will steepen midlevel lapse rates,
    resulting in an unstable air mass as daytime heating occurs. Storms
    are likely to form near the surface trough, and spread across
    northern ID and into western MT through the evening and overnight.
    The strengthening wind fields combined with favorable lapse rates
    will support cells with marginal hail, as well as corridors of
    strong wind gusts.

    ..Jewell.. 08/20/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 19:17:10 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 201917
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 201915

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0215 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE OHIO VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the
    Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the
    Northwest on Saturday.

    ...Midwest...

    An upper trough will dig and pivot southeast across the region on
    Saturday. At the surface, a front will extend from Lower MI to
    southern IL at the start of the period, with the boundary tracking east/southeast across the Ohio Valley through early Sunday. Ahead of
    the boundary, 60s F surface dewpoints beneath cooler midlevel
    temperatures will support moderate destabilization by afternoon.
    Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
    surface boundary and spread southeast through evening. This activity
    will pose a risk for marginal hail and strong wind gusts.

    ...Northern Rockies...

    An upper shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and
    northern Rockies on Saturday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly
    flow and cooling aloft over much of the region. Steepening midlevel
    lapse rates will support weak destabilization, and isolated to
    widely scattered thunderstorms are expected. A deeply mixed boundary
    layer beneath strengthening flow aloft will support strong outflow
    winds with this activity. Small hail could also occur with stronger
    cells.

    ...Lower MO Valley to AR/Mid-South...

    Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on
    Saturday. A surface front will drop southward across MO/IL into the
    Ozarks and Mid-South vicinity. Ahead of the front, a seasonally
    moist airmass will be in place, and moderate to strong instability
    is forecast. Some forecast guidance suggests a remnant MCV or
    outflow from prior convection could focus thunderstorm develop along
    the sagging surface front. Where the greatest coverage of
    thunderstorms occurs remains highly uncertain. If confidence
    increases in subsequent outlooks, wind probabilities could be needed
    for portions of the region.

    ..Leitman.. 08/20/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 07:33:16 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 210733
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 210731

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0231 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
    TO CENTRAL MONTANA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind gusts
    are possible in portions of the Northeast and across parts of
    southwest and central Montana.

    ...Southwest into central Montana...
    A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest
    and into eastern British Columbia. While the parent trough is
    forecast to deamplify through the period, moderate mid-level flow is
    forecast to remain across much of Montana. Weak to potentially
    moderate instability is forecast to develop across southwest into
    central Montana. The moderate mid-level flow should provide ample
    shear for storm organization including some supercell potential.
    Strong heating will support steep low-level lapse rates and some
    severe wind gust threat with the strongest storms.

    ...Portions of the Northeast...
    A mid-level trough will become negatively tilted as it pivots from
    the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday. A broad 1006-1010mb
    surface low is forecast somewhere in the vicinity of western New
    York, southeast Ontario and southern Quebec. Storms are forecast by
    mid-day along a cold front that should extend from New York into
    central Pennsylvania on Sunday morning and move eastward through the
    day. The environment ahead of this front is forecast to have
    moderate to strong shear and relatively weak instability. Forecast
    soundings show a lower storm top environment due to warmer
    temperatures aloft. However, despite the weak instability, the
    expectation for at least some supercell threat, combined with decent instability within the hail growth zone and strong shear may support
    some large hail and damaging wind gusts Sunday afternoon/evening.

    ..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 19:29:48 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 211929
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 211928

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
    SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN
    GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe
    hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies
    and Great Plains, and across parts of the Northeast, Sunday through
    Sunday night.

    ...Discussion...
    Models indicate that prominent mid/upper ridging centered across the
    southern Rockies through southern Great Plains will be maintained
    through this period. However, initially amplified ridging extending
    through the westerlies to the north of this feature is likely to
    become suppressed by a notable mid-level short wave trough, slowly
    progressing east-northeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies
    through the southern Canadian Prairies and adjacent international
    border vicinity.

    Downstream, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to only make
    very slow eastward progress east of the Mississippi Valley through
    Atlantic Seaboard/western Atlantic vicinity, while an evolving
    embedded low slowly shifts eastward near/north of the lower Great
    Lakes region, in response to at least a couple of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around it.

    In lower-levels, the primary surface cyclone is forecast to migrate
    northward toward James Bay, with a weaker secondary low perhaps
    migrating inland across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern
    New England, before weakening further. It appears that the
    composite leading edge of cooler low-level air trailing this
    feature, will stall and weaken across parts of the southern Great
    Plains and Gulf Coast into southern Mid Atlantic.

    ...Central and eastern Montana...
    There remains a signal in latest model output that forcing for
    ascent within the base of the progressive short wave trough will
    support increasing thunderstorm development across the higher
    terrain of central Montana by late afternoon. Coincident with
    strengthening westerly mid-level flow to 30-40+ kt, and the
    evolution of a strongly heated and fairy deeply mixed downstream
    boundary-layer (with at least modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg),
    there appears potential for the evolution of an upscale growing and
    organizing cluster into early evening. If this occurs, the
    environment appears conducive to an accompanying swath of strong to
    severe gusts across parts of central into eastern Montana by late
    Sunday evening.

    ...Dakotas...
    Forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection downstream of
    the progressive short wave trough may become increasingly conducive
    to upscale growing thunderstorm development from the west/central
    Dakotas state border through central/eastern South Dakota Sunday
    evening into Sunday night. Aided by inflow of seasonably moist
    boundary-layer air supportive of CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg,
    there appears potential for activity to become organized with
    potential to produce a swath or two of strong to severe gusts. The
    21/12Z NAM, in particular, generates a fairly notable convective
    perturbation in association with this development. If this signal
    becomes supported by more model output in later runs, severe
    probabilities may need to be upgraded further.

    ...Northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England...
    Forcing for ascent aided by an initial short wave impulse pivoting
    around the southeastern through eastern periphery of the Great Lakes
    mid-level low probably will provide support for increasing
    thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New York and
    Pennsylvania into southern New England during the day Sunday.
    Inland destabilization and vertical shear across this region remains
    a bit uncertain, but it possible the environment could become
    supportive of strong storms with potential to produce severe hail
    and wind.

    ..Kerr.. 08/21/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 06:53:08 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 220652
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 220651

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0151 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
    THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
    are possible from the northern to central High Plains on Monday.

    ...Central to the Northern Plains...
    The strong ridge which has been present for much of the last 3 weeks
    will continue across the southern Plains and the High Plains.
    However, the northern extent of this ridge will be flattened with a
    frontal zone extending from the northern Plains into the central
    High Plains. Moderate instability is forecast along this frontal
    zone where isolated to scattered storms are expected on Monday. The
    strongest shear is expected across North Dakota into Minnesota where
    a 40 knot jet streak will overspread the region. Isolated storms may
    form along the front in this region during the day, but the better
    signal for storms is during the evening when a mid-level shortwave
    trough approaches the region from southern Canada.

    The greater diurnal storm coverage is anticipated in the Nebraska
    Panhandle and into southwest South Dakota. However, the weaker shear
    across this region may result in only marginally organized storms.
    Therefore, a few severe wind gusts are possible and thus the
    Marginal is warranted, but the relatively unorganized storm mode
    precludes higher severe weather probabilities at this time.

    ..Bentley.. 08/22/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 19:29:02 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 221928
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 221927

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0227 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
    PLAINS...PARTS OF THE GULF COAST...AND MAINE...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible
    across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern
    Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may
    also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper ridge will remain in place across the western and central
    CONUS while an upper trough begins to eject into the Atlantic from
    New England on Monday. The embedded impulse responsible for cresting
    the ridge over the northern Rockies and encouraging severe storm
    development on Day 2 (Sunday) will overspread the northern High
    Plains on Monday. Weak lee troughing over the Plains will encourage
    modest low-level moisture advection beneath stronger westerly flow
    aloft, resulting in enough deep-layer ascent, amid coinciding
    buoyancy and vertical wind shear, to support isolated strong to
    severe thunderstorms.

    ...Central High Plains to the northern Plains...
    Upslope flow of 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 8 C/km mid-level
    lapse rates along the central and northern High Plains will yield
    2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE as a mid-level impulse begins to overspread
    the region. Over 30 kts of 500 mb flow and resultant deep-layer
    shear will coincide with this buoyancy, supporting the development
    of multicells and perhaps supercells by late Monday afternoon.
    Should more sustained supercells develop, an instance or two of 2+
    inch diameter hail or a 75+ mph gust cannot be ruled out given the aforementioned mid-level lapse rates. Slight risk probabilities may
    be needed in future outlooks pending higher confidence in greater
    storm coverage.

    ...Parts of the northern Great Basin to central Rockies...
    A deep and dry boundary layer should develop by afternoon peak
    heating, resulting in inverted-V thermodynamic profiles from the
    northern Great Basin into the central Rockies. Stronger westerly
    mid-level flow will overspread this dry and unstable boundary layer,
    promoting elongated hodographs and the tendency for storms to
    organize into multicells. Given the organized storm mode and
    evaporative cooling potential with the dry boundary layer in place,
    a few severe gusts may occur with the stronger storms.

    ...Maine...
    Deep-layer ascent ahead of the ejecting upper trough will support
    scattered thunderstorm development during the late morning into the
    afternoon hours. A belt of 60 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will
    pivot around the upper trough and overspread Main during the
    afternoon, when buoyancy will be maximized. MLCAPE may exceed 750
    J/kg with over 50 kts of effective bulk/speed shear given highly
    elongated hodographs. Therefore, any storms that develop may become multicellular or transient supercellular in nature, posting an
    isolated damaging gust/hail threat through the afternoon.

    ...Parts of the Gulf Coast...
    Another hot and humid day is expected along the Gulf Coast, where
    strong surface heating amid mid 70s F dewpoints will yield MLCAPE
    over 2000 J/kg. Despite weak tropospheric flow, enough
    moisture-fueled buoyancy will support the potential for wet
    downbursts capable of damaging gusts during the afternoon.

    ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 07:29:22 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 230729
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 230728

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

    Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWESTERN
    KANSAS AND VICINITY....

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of
    the central Plains, the Southeast, and the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.
    A more focused region of severe wind gusts is possible across
    portions of the central High Plains.

    ...Upper Midwest...
    A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward from the
    Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A surface low,
    and associated cold front, will move relatively quickly
    southeastward through the day. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast ahead
    of this front which will result in moderate instability. Moderate
    flow associated with the mid-level jet streak will provide ample
    shear for storm organization. Storms will likely be ongoing at the
    beginning of the period near the Canadian border which may result in
    a somewhat messy storm mode through the day. However, farther south,
    more isolated storm development is possible. Given storm motion
    normal to the front and moderate mid-level flow, supercells will be
    possible. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates and warmer
    temperatures aloft may limit the large hail threat somewhat.

    ...Central Plains...
    A reservoir of strong instability is forecast across the central
    Plains where low 70s dewpoints are expected on Tuesday
    afternoon/evening. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (perhaps
    enhanced by Day 2 convection) is consistently shown among guidance
    which should move across this region during the afternoon/evening.
    The combination of a strongly unstable warm sector and forcing from
    this mid-level shortwave trough should result in scattered to
    widespread storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Effective
    shear around 30 to 35 knots should result in a combination of
    multicells and supercells initially with one or more clusters
    developing by evening as storms grow upscale. The most favorable
    region for a greater coverage of severe wind gusts will likely exist
    across northwest Kansas and vicinity where diurnal timing is favored
    and storm mode transition is expected.

    ...Southeast...
    Strong heating is expected along the Gulf Coast south of a frontal
    zone. Shear will be very weak, but PWAT in excess of 2 inches and
    the hot air mass should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of
    isolated damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening
    hours. A slightly greater coverage of storms and severe potential
    may exist across MS/AL downstream of early morning elevated
    convection forecast to develop across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

    ..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)