ACUS11 KWNS 250149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250148=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0851
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...southwest Minnesota...southeast South Dakota...far
northwest Iowa...and northeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243...

Valid 250148Z - 250315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243
continues.

SUMMARY...Large-hail potential is expected to become more isolated
through 04z.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends indicate warming
cloud tops and lowering reflectivity cores, which coincides with the
gradual cooling and stabilization of the boundary layer. However,
plan-view VWP data and short-term model forecasts indicate the
strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet from south-central NE
into southeast SD. Enhanced convergence and moist flux within the
terminus of that feature may support the continuation of isolated,
strong to severe storms in far southeast SD and northwest IA for the
next hour or two. Elsewhere, expect a gradual decrease in storm
coverage and intensity through 04z as convective inhibition
continues to increase.

..Mead.. 05/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5SoE2dLWyQCXgCfK1aqYEVjC6_MM1mFnyqiYDI5mMWG10mz8mXz_rXbMohSyyroXmPwIKcW22= u7eDc1f9ukuDmLaMmA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41809818 42419827 42979817 43909778 44179729 44589600
44879541 45119490 45009431 44479358 43969350 43739437
43609496 43039526 42579571 42049625 41929655 41579738
41809818=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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