ACUS11 KWNS 242350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242349=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0850
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...southwest Minnesota...southeast South
Dakota...northwest Iowa...and northeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243...

Valid 242349Z - 250145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for mainly large hail (up to 2") is expected to
continue this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 0045 UTC, radar data showed strong to severe
thunderstorms ongoing across southwest MN, including a couple
supercells located north and northeast of New Ulm. Those storms are
moving through the northeast extension of the low-level moisture
axis with objective analysis indicating MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg.
However, the presence of stronger mid/high-level flow is resulting
in elongated hodographs, which will continue to favor supercell
storm modes with an associated risk for mainly large hail. As, such
a local extension in area may be required to accommodate the ongoing
hail threat. The storms may begin to weaken as they shift east of
the I-35 corridor south of the Minneapolis metropolitan area owing
to a progressively drier boundary-layer with eastward extent.

Additional supercell structures have been observed in southeast SD,
west of Yankton, with a recent report of 2" diameter hail. Those
storms are located within the center of the instability axis, with
MLCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg, per objective analysis. Given the
presence of 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, the environment will
remain supportive of supercell storm modes for the next few hours
with an associated risk for hail up to 2.0" in diameter.

Farther south in northeast NE, storms are gradually intensifying
south and southeast of O'Neill, as they encounter an increasingly
moist boundary layer with similar MLCAPE values to those in
southeast SD. Current thinking is that those storms should continue
to strengthen this evening as they progress east, with the most
intense storms capable of large hail.

..Mead.. 05/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-oECRZSNWIbqS0-7Dk1bTCYy5IZhzJWYXH2eM0z871eEYjeF63Z5RWYgzL3yaNPS6tVKpQw0o= LUWlb0IEA2jKwbRfUg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41789920 42869925 43459911 43559784 44199774 44219720
44529711 44519646 45299641 45319425 44769371 44109392
42909526 42479622 41869643 41299726 41479845 41789920=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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