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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0849

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 24 20:34:32 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 242034
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242034=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-242200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0849
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0334 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

    Areas affected...Northeast Nebraska into southwest Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 242034Z - 242200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible
    when storms develop/mature this afternoon. Timing remains uncertain,
    but a watch is possible by late afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Deeper cumulus have developed near the SD/NE border.
    Additional, but more shallow, development has also been noted from
    near Sioux Falls into southwest Minnesota. How soon any of this
    activity can develop into sustained thunderstorms is not clear given
    the subtly rising mid-level heights this afternoon. Given the strong
    surface heating, it is possible that a storm or two develops within
    the next 1-2 hours. However, it is more probable that more robust
    convection will initiate as lift from a shortwave trough now in
    eastern Montana arrives closer to 00Z. 30-35 kt of effective shear
    and -16 to -17 C at 500 mb (per 18Z ABR/OAX soundings) suggest
    large/very-large hail and severe winds would be possible with
    supercells. Timing of watch issuance remains uncertain. It is more
    probable by late afternoon, but could be sooner if convective trends
    warrant.

    ..Wendt.. 05/24/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8MNowg5o7IO0XEa0MmTfeidjTCNiqB-RgldTWdn_QJ0LzfA_Uvjp-er8ZMMBWwp0oS6fuYaQT= r3jw_QRuwhDCH4_pRU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

    LAT...LON 44389801 45049604 44849515 44599462 44329469 44109485
    42849647 42709666 42309732 42159872 42879942 43519908
    44389801=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)