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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0843

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 23 23:16:57 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 232316
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232316=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-240045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0843
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0616 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

    Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...

    Valid 232316Z - 240045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind gusts will increase through
    02z (9 PM CDT) from the northwest into central Texas Panhandle.
    Isolated occurrences of large hail are also possible.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, individual thunderstorms have
    consolidated in to a line, which extends from south-central Cimarron
    County in the western OK Panhandle southwest through western parts
    of Dallam and Hartley Counties in the northwest Tx Panhandle as of
    2310 UTC. Recent KAMA base velocity data indicate multiple channels
    of stronger winds embedded within the line, suggestive of a
    gradually organizing cold pool. The downstream air mass across the
    TX Panhandle is modestly moist with steep low/mid-level lapse rates
    largely contributing to MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg, per objective
    analysis.

    The current KAMA VWP is sampling southeasterly winds within the
    lowest 2-3-km AGL, which are forecast to strengthen in the 01-03z
    time frame, effectively enhancing storm-relative inflow into the
    evolving convective system. That coupled with around 30-35 kt of
    effective bulk shear, and the steep lapse rates may support the
    southeastward acceleration of the ongoing thunderstorm line into the
    central Panhandle by 02z (9 PM CDT) or earlier, with an attendant
    risk for severe wind gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated occurrences of
    large hail.

    ..Mead.. 05/23/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5dVKPcDNaiSfUNIWTv91K2vz7fRdRaHdqorxeehsHfk4uR95C4khiooM4OHseqI7DnHUV7Leq= tC7roY4dZXTQr9g8UI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35770303 36310298 36520279 36600249 36390162 35790113
    35320128 35050156 34990207 35420289 35770303=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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