ACUS11 KWNS 232002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232002=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-232200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232002Z - 232200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon.
One or more clusters with a risk for hail and damaging gusts is
expected. The need for a WW is unclear.

DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, visible and radar imagery showed
convection increasing in coverage from the Davis Mountains into
parts of southwestern and West TX. Strong heating and weak ascent
from a subtle subtropical shortwave trough should remove lingering
inhibition over the next couple of hours. Ongoing high-based
convection and its associated outflow should continue and may
strengthen as additional storms develop over the southern High
Plains and Edwards Plateau within the destabilizing air mass.

Convective coverage should continue to increase this afternoon with
a few stronger multicells and clusters becoming established. Steep
mid-level lapse rates above 8.5 C/km (12z DRT sounding) will support
strong multi cell updrafts with isolated hail potential. Surface
winds and flow aloft are quite light suggesting storm organization
will be episodic. Deep-layer shear is generally weak (EBWD <25 kt),
but the degree of buoyancy (forecast MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) and
steep lapse rates could favor a risk for damaging winds, especially
if substantial clustering of storms can occur.

Given the expected increase in convective coverage, some severe risk
is evident this afternoon and continuing into the evening hours. CAM
guidance shows initial scattered storms gradually coalescing into a
few stronger clusters and spreading eastward this evening. While
some severe risk is possible, the lack of broader storm organization
suggests a watch is possible but not overly likely in the short
term. Convective trends will be monitored should the need for a
watch become apparent.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7NPYsT0q9lWhO1n-eJUu8bVfuFQ3-M5Dd_wCIKqgcxZTC-Ncp-bnOyfKmRSI97rMzl6wuWPB5= scKozIut_95S9NXtbE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30730294 31340278 32220313 32590303 33040207 32950152
32600058 31630026 31030044 30330082 29970121 29900237
29950305 30730294=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)