ACUS11 KWNS 231734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231734=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-231930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...Georgia into central South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231734Z - 231930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible as scattered convection
develops this afternoon. Potential for a more organized severe
threat continues to appear low and a watch is not currently
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Despite weak forcing, scattered thunderstorms are
likely within a a very moist (low/mid 70s F dewpoints) and weakly
capped airmass. Mid-level lapse rates are relatively poor (6 C/km
per 12Z FFC sounding), but around 1.75 in. PWAT values and pockets
of steeper low-level lapse rates will promote potential for isolated water-loaded downbursts and associated wind damage. Storm
organization is not expected to be substantial and any greater
potential for wind damage would be tied to localized clustering of
storm cells.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-wg5mtT-5rxiSbLPwb0lCjr3p4HB25KX7fSQ2f_-MheFMd1wPny5m_fpwnApEnWm15jG59_dd= Q89qN8X7FSApIHyADw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 31358461 32788508 33668482 33858436 33838318 34018154
34088081 33748069 32488167 31308255 30908322 30928354
31358461=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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