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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0835

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 23 14:21:24 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 231421
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231420=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-231615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0835
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0920 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

    Areas affected...Sabine Valley into central Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 231420Z - 231615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds are possible with a band of
    convection moving into Louisiana. A brief tornado may also occur
    with cellular convection ahead of the line. A watch is not currently
    expected, though observational trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms in association with an MCV
    continues eastward through the Sabine Valley region this morning.
    Occasional strengthening of convective cores has been noted on MRMS
    CAPPI imagery. As surface heating occurs ahead of this activity,
    isolated wind damage will be possible with the strongest portions of
    the line. In central Louisiana, recent radar data from KPOE shows a
    couple of supercell structures with at least weak low-level
    rotation. Regional VAD profiles do not show very strong low level
    shear, but there is likely some localized enhancement in close
    proximity to the MCV. A brief tornado is possible with cellular
    convection ahead of the MCV/convective line and perhaps within the
    line as well. A watch is not currently anticipated, but convective
    trends will be monitored into the afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/23/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6CPXa66vUvmdotKtMRP-R9_RcF27MTunCRQD4RnGftXekLgxhFROm6zWs0pjDY3lN_pI6JTy7= DqII2l5MPaXvwGyGYc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 29399341 29599363 30499377 31199454 31649435 32129363
    31599154 31009150 29849264 29599307 29399341=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)