ACUS11 KWNS 230100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230059=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-230230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0832
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Big Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 230059Z - 230230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for damaging/severe wind gusts may develop
eastward in association with a loosely-organized band of convection.
Trends are being monitored for potential downstream watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has gradually increased over the
past hour across portions of northwest Texas along the eastern edge
of a consolidated cold pool. While cooling surface temperatures and
increasing inhibition are noted ahead of this convection via the
latest surface observations and objective analysis, 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE and modest westerly effective shear of 20-30 kts may support
the continued eastward propagation of this developing convective
band. Should this occur, the primary severe threat would be
damaging/severe wind gusts; although, it remains uncertain as to
whether this band will attain more than loose organization. Some
risk for isolated large hail may also persist with the strongest
updrafts.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!82OMsDpjNx41u7AWnlMumUvuhov3eyDFP8ZoLjFWVNsCFyMP__OlHUM6suKr6phyF7FJm7Un7= eHMREzv6GGW9LbLXS4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32640096 32780096 32880085 33110069 33350053 33550048
33760052 33870066 33930089 33970109 34030119 34150125
34300109 34520057 34650011 34699952 34639907 34499877
34189859 33769849 33329856 32959867 32659896 32579955
32549983 32480071 32640096=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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