ACUS11 KWNS 221810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221809=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-222045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...Parts of north GA into Upstate SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221809Z - 222045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for localized damaging wind and a brief tornado
may develop later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A nearly stationary baroclinic zone is in place near
the NC/SC border early this afternoon. South of the primary thermal
gradient, backed surface winds are observed within a broader
confluence zone from parts of north GA into Upstate SC. Continued heating/destabilization is expected to result in additional
thunderstorm development across this area through the afternoon.
This area will be somewhat removed from stronger low/midlevel flow
across parts of the TN/OH Valleys, but moderate buoyancy and locally
enhanced deep-layer shear within the zone of backed surface winds
may support at least transient storm organization, and a marginal
supercell or two cannot be ruled out.=20

Weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft intensity and
will temper the magnitude of the threat, but localized damaging wind
could accompany the strongest storms. A brief tornado also cannot be
ruled out, given the presence of modestly enhanced low-level
shear/SRH within a very moist environment.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ysCnAM58V9mg32ZlobhagSb0fLkcl0cJO7JKo_bP_ZKueTMN7AkfNjOwjYvGlgEOFbMVoWEe= UaNTHnDy3OzIjHbK_A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 35008478 35138282 34958212 34928120 34748104 34448115
34328131 34088178 33968220 33998349 34088420 34828471
35008478=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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