ACUS11 KWNS 221748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221748=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-222015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0825
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northeast MS...central/northern
AL...middle/eastern TN and central/eastern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221748Z - 222015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some tornado and localized wind-damage threat will expand northeastward through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Within a broad area of convection covering much of AL,
occasional low-level rotation continues to be noted within embedded
cells, with an apparent recent tornado southwest of Birmingham. Some strengthening of deep-layer flow has been noted from the KHTX VWP,
though deep-layer shear (generally around 30 kt) continues to be
rather marginal for organized convection. Modest buoyancy and weak
midlevel lapse rates will continue to hamper updraft intensity, but
favorable low-level SRH within the very moist environment will
continue to support at least a brief-tornado threat across
central/northern AL.=20

Farther north, filtered heating is underway across middle TN into
southeast KY, though MLCAPE will likely remain modest through the
afternoon. As stronger low-level flow/shear spreads northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough, some threat
for marginal supercells and brief tornadoes may expand into a larger
portion of middle/eastern TN and central/eastern KY. Localized
damaging winds will also be possible.=20

The need for watch issuance remains uncertain, due to the
potentially limited magnitude and coverage of the threat. Trends
will continue to be monitored for a more general uptick in storm
intensity and organization through the afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!81VnP_Ow28nBEj_mDhvrk5CzXrze5eYrRpSQkIsh3TyZUoNSwKq_j0mkuw21-NqHYQQ82xlA8= YbzSJYwrTKG-QyPA0s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32898796 33118836 34538876 35368905 35828875 36428804
36638764 37458619 37648499 37548370 37138376 36468441
35548515 34688565 33308627 32878647 32898796=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)