ACUS11 KWNS 221007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221006=20
MSZ000-221200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0823
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221006Z - 221200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado and locally damaging gusts remain
possible.

DISCUSSION...Preceding a midlevel wave approaching the lower MS
Valley, convection is evolving within low-level confluence bands in
central MS -- where a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) is in
place. The JAN VWP is sampling a gradually strengthening low-level
jet (around 40 kt at 1 km AGL) and an associated clockwise-curved
low-level hodograph (around 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). Despite weak
buoyancy, the rich boundary-layer moisture and enhanced streamwise
vorticity are contributing to a locally favorable environment for
transient, low-topped supercell structures. A brief tornado was
reported at 938 UTC southwest of Jackson, MS, and an additional
brief tornado and locally damaging gusts will remain possible
beneath the core of the 30-40-kt LLJ as it translates northward
across central MS.

..Weinman/Smith.. 05/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_bp9Vhc1wPM-JyyRRXHAYHtIdDrHYmvNONCws-YApKpzhr9O7Y4qny5mZ3u2yC2X0wR5BMZD= AHlAjOs7HuO_rh4PGA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32149064 32599053 33638980 33868940 33918887 33738843
33448829 32968837 32178894 31748960 31789013 32149064=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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