ACUS11 KWNS 212103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212102=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...southwest
Kansas...Northeast New Mexico and the TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

Valid 212102Z - 212230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms should intensify with a risk for hail,
damaging gusts and possibly a tornado this evening.

DISCUSSION...Across WW238, convection has strengthened this
afternoon with a mix of supercellular and linear structures now
apparent over southeast CO and northeast NM. These storms are moving
into a moderately unstable environment with SBCAPE of 1000-2000
J/kg. Vertical shear remains supportive of organized storms.
Convection should continue to intensify as it moves east/southeast
this afternoon/evening. Hail should remain the primary risk given
steep mid-level lapse rates. However, clustering and the linear
segments will also support some damaging wind risk this evening. A
brief tornado is also possible later this evening with any discrete
supercells able to interact with an increasing low-level jet. Given
this, the severe threat continues for much of WW238.

..Lyons.. 05/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_FN9lwvvWt3vezLNujLQEKmvHH8j6wg8052a0tYg3QzQrBurB6cueCU_BUZjbM7wMGV6l-wp0= WZgw7e4itFfU_my6gE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38540306 38140169 37510109 36890106 36360110 35860144
35670214 35610277 35630353 35810421 36440431 37800394
38540306=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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