ACUS11 KWNS 212035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212035=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-212230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Areas affected...parts of eastern NM into adjacent west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212035Z - 212230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop by late afternoon or
early evening.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus is increasing this afternoon near the higher
terrain of east-central NM, and also in the vicinity of a baroclinic
zone near the NM/TX border. With only weak to modest large-scale
ascent across the region, coverage of storm development may remain
relatively isolated. However, steep midlevel lapse rates and
moderate buoyancy will conditionally support development of robust
updrafts. Effective shear of 20-30 kt is only marginally supportive
of organized convection, but organized multicells could eventually
develop, and supercell or two cannot be ruled out near the
baroclinic zone. Large hail and localized strong to severe gusts
could accompany the strongest storms.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5RL_Aj_iDhstLm67isx9qrd5jyURksZJ7CyCX19qhAUY3Ud0qj2C768KCCjIEMudwBX042J8V= xq7SbfzKrpcWFOKeVA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33320483 34560472 35080461 35370426 35250343 35070291
34630260 34120258 33350257 32630258 32140295 32060370
32270429 32490459 32990479 33320483=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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