ACUS11 KWNS 202055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202055=20
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-202230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0807
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Kentucky into central West
Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236...

Valid 202055Z - 202230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery depicts several ongoing
thunderstorm clusters from southern Kentucky northeastward into
western/central West Virginia, with a couple of recent 1" hail
reports noted north of Charleston, West Virginia. Continued diurnal
heating has supported temperatures warming well into the 80s F
across the region, which is subsequently contributing to 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Steep low-level lapse rates (exceeding 8 C/km per
latest objective analysis) and dewpoint depressions of 20-25 F
evident in recent surface observations continue to promote at least
some potential for damaging wind gusts with ongoing thunderstorms.
Modest effective shear (generally less than 30 kts) and weak
mid-level lapse rates will largely temper the threat for large hail,
but isolated small to marginally severe hail remains possible with
the most robust cores. Expectation is for ongoing storms to persist
into this evening before gradually dissipating owing to low-level
nocturnal cooling/stabilization.

..Chalmers.. 05/20/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bovp1-pfMbrs94A4o4_W0oOPh1-zTsAendorIyKgeZ4vhmTAd44ejC5xv0oA0wHYoWVJ6JK9= Jlci9CxWtCWQAJiWt0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON 36968281 36698350 36698380 36948391 37278383 37618341
38018272 38448196 38548165 38598115 38548078 38368061
38198061 37888088 37728114 37278204 36968281=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)