1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0792

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 19 21:31:32 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 192131
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192131=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-192230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0792
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0431 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

    Areas affected...portions of far southern Indiana into western Kentucky...extreme northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 192131Z - 192230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts or an instance of hail may occur
    through the remainder of the afternoon. The severe threat should
    remain sparse, and a WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular storms amid a weak shear environment
    have shown some increase in intensity over the last 1-2 hours (per
    MRMS mosaic radar and NLDN lightning data). These storms are
    intensifying amid a mixed boundary layer, with 0-3 km lapse rates
    exceeding 8 C/km per 21Z mesoanalysis. However, mid-level lapse
    rates are rather poor, resulting in tall/thin buoyancy profiles,
    yielding up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the moist environment and
    weak vertical wind shear, storms should remain pulse-cellular, with
    damaging gusts from wet downbursts the primary threat, though an
    instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Given the isolated nature of
    the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/19/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9XSOVKdFq1NL23xjr17ifPqpim01cnmKsgXhtwuianqj84QVVRo_ElN7En8PTJ0oyRx1NSDpZ= IWMcIVF5MUhkQAw8pQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35259080 36888907 38158711 38738578 38668490 38378463
    37658495 36768614 35778828 35308903 34998984 35259080=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)