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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0786

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 19 17:31:32 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 191731
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191731=20
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-191930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0786
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1231 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

    Areas affected...Lower Ohio River Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 191731Z - 191930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
    afternoon across much of the Ohio River Valley as daytime heating
    brings the boundary layer to convective temperatures. These storms
    will primarily be capable of damaging straight-line winds and hail.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun to develop within moist and
    uncapped boundary layers where MLCAPE exceeds 2500 J/kg. Convective
    coverage is expected to increase throughout the afternoon, though
    will remain disorganized initially due to a lack of deep-layer
    shear. Still, large environmental DCAPE, steep low-level lapse
    rates, and relatively high PWATs will support strong downdrafts
    capable of damaging wind gusts. Localized corridors of increased
    threat could occur with any local organization along leading-edge
    outflow boundaries or with outflow boundary interactions.

    ..Halbert/Hart.. 05/19/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Zz5zkVrmSa9fI-2OZXI86vqQau_30Z3D1uqhq0o9uXiEDrbI9Qy9a7sDF8c01BbNJaG2V1gZ= yyXUJ4Gxo2-jZgV3Nw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

    LAT...LON 37589038 38458917 39578772 39918713 40028678 40098648
    40098622 40028577 39748540 39228521 38588528 38138563
    37308700 36448861 36388874 36108926 36118947 36148962
    36228993 36469026 36739039 37109047 37589038=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)