ACUS11 KWNS 190630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190630=20
TXZ000-190830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 190630Z - 190830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A bowing complex of thunderstorms continues to move east
across far south Texas. The environment ahead of the cluster remains
extremely unstable. Strong winds and isolated hail may be possible
with the core of these storms. A watch is currently not expected.

DISCUSSION...An HP multicell cluster across northern Mexico has
evolved into a small bowing cluster as it moves east across south
Texas this morning. This complex appears to be aided by modest deep
layer ascent in associated with a 70-knot 300-mb jet streak moving
northeast from the base of the western North American longwave
trough.=20

The 20260519/00Z Corpus Christi sounding observed an extremely
unstable airmass, with MUCAPE in excess of 4500 J/kg. Morning
objectively analyzed fields suggest MUCAPE remains in excess of 4000
J/kg. The observed sounding also sampled a very moist airmass, with precipitable water in excess of 2". Thus, heavy, water-laden
downdrafts will support the possibility of damaging winds with this
complex, despite the observed weak low-level lapse rates. Given the
degree of instability, isolated hail cannot be ruled out.

The limited spatial extent of this bowing complex (one storm only a
couple of counties wide, rapidly approaching the coast) should
preclude the need for a watch, although conditions will continue to
be monitored.

..Marsh/Gleason.. 05/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Tzw0LCgjWIcVaOi0h3FRe1hlWf5uUCPpMVe-W3az8MjUlnF5YTi-zENT6qd0QB7bcMy-I60T= rJM1ZQn0yrHx3IM_2I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON 27149953 27419910 27829894 28109904 28319917 28569850
28529780 28469715 28329681 28159665 27909659 27579668
27289695 27119728 27059791 27149953=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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