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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0777

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 18 20:29:52 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 182029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182029=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-182230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0777
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

    Areas affected...Portions of Mid-Missouri Valley Region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 182029Z - 182230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms will increase into the
    evening. Tornadoes will remain possible along the Iowa/Missouri
    border with hail becoming the primary hazard with northward extent.
    One or more watches will be needed this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...At least modest airmass recovery has occurred along the Iowa/Missouri border region. Dewpoints have risen into the mid 60s
    to low 70s F in some locations. North of the boundary, steep
    mid-level lapse rates are in place per the 18Z OAX sounding. As the
    shortwave trough moves into the area, additional storm development
    is likely. This is already occurring in eastern Nebraska.
    Furthermore, additional theta-e advection ahead of the ongoing
    supercells in north-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska will allow
    a tornado threat to persist northeast of PDS WW 222. One or more
    watches will be needed this afternoon. The tornado threat will be
    maximized south of the boundary with a transition to more of a hail
    threat with elevated storms to the north.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/18/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Ys7oKYzBu5mtKXHAbjA9DJWMOv2Y-Es543uN92Gbc98B6BqXdY0pNqoCobAYr82Xder6x0Xv= _l4v0zuemSEVTFKXtY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 40569724 41199752 41659722 41989617 41969535 41769429
    41399360 40759341 40029371 39529415 39589472 39809501
    40569724=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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