ACUS11 KWNS 181907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181907=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-182030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...North-central Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 222...

Valid 181907Z - 182030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 222 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat is increasing in parts of north-central
Kansas. A strong to intense tornado is possible in this environment.

DISCUSSION...Several discrete storms have developed in the vicinity
of Concordia, KS. The strongest storm so far is in Lincoln County,
KS and has shown signs of increasing inflow and mesocyclone
strength. This storm will pose the greatest tornado threat as it
will most likely have more residence time in the most favorable
environment. Given the location of these storms within the modified
outflow with backed surface winds and an expected increase in the
850 mb winds through the afternoon, this activity will be the
primary focus for tornado potential over the next 2-3 hours. Surface
winds near Great Bend/Russell have trended more westerly, but
farther north, where these storms are ongoing, the winds remain more northeasterly/northerly. This at least suggests that the linear
forcing will remain weak in the short term and keep discrete modes
deeper into the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 05/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4zQ2nW3w5t_57l9OqL8FmRMHd33M0SQkmDsXDKLjMbfIXraeUq8G9d3TRQkZR8eqy8-wBT5FX= Qt1xTlqpK6YKKSjsWg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 38819834 39129822 39509795 39889755 40009728 40069686
39959654 39819645 39629650 39149707 38899765 38769810
38819834=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN


=3D =3D =3D
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