ACUS11 KWNS 181700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181659=20
KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-181900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0771
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...South-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and
northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 181659Z - 181900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A favorable environment for all severe hazards--including very-large/giant hail and strong to intense tornadoes--will develop
through the afternoon. A tornado watch is likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus along the cold front in central Kansas as well
as near the outflow/front triple point continue to show signs of
gradual deepening. Given the upper 60s/low 70s F dewpoints surging
northward into central Kansas, MLCIN should continue to erode
relatively quickly. Storm initiation could be early/mid afternoon.
Outflow from earlier convection is also being modified in northeast
Kansas. Here, surface winds will be more backed. The KTWX VAD
profile shows strong low-level veering. Deep-layer shear and steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support supercells capable of severe
winds, very-large to perhaps giant hail, and tornadoes. The
favorable low-level wind fields in place suggests strong to intense
tornadoes are possible. The areas of greatest concern for this
activity will be storms forming near the triple point and moving
northeast along the quasi-stationary/warm front. There is also
potential for a supercell or two to develop along the modifying
outflow boundary. A longer-track tornado is certainly possible if
storms can maintain a discrete mode. With time, however, there is
the expectation for upscale growth into an MCS where severe winds
would become a greater concern.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7iyuG7vPYTb5MY6CsdbAkZ6Qp-2bVugk_F8FI-VSX_rNvy89ig0zr-KXr0oV9hFWzzGGbel5_= 4Vpuqs1SAl04zL9DOI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 37509764 37559817 37919865 38349881 38689867 39609784
39769764 40089644 40299547 40079515 39459540 38189641
37509764=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN


=3D =3D =3D
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