ACUS11 KWNS 181639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181638=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-181745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0770
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 181638Z - 181745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed as the
northern edge of a QLCS/Bow Echo moves across Lake Michigan and into
lower Michigan.

DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a bow-echo currently moving
across Lake Michigan will pose a threat for damaging winds gusts
across lower and central Michigan this afternoon. Low-level lapse
rates and strong buoyancy will support continued convective
development along the leading edge of the bow echo, and large DCAPE
will support strong downdrafts capable of 65-80 MPH gusts.

..Halbert/Hart.. 05/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-s3JBbyxRRPhxm_pHPeJuJJFc-9ir2Cvt-d5C9E5MbxW20gCmQWRXr7ZdFeh0mS6Ia8n7i5s1= htkd5FLDGzBA9dG61E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON 41498662 41608738 41868756 42078775 42168788 42268769
43008587 43398434 43718346 43788295 43668267 43468248
42998230 42468257 42378285 41978316 41688366 41568476
41498662=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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