918
AXNT20 KNHC 131015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed May 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 37W from 03N to 14N, moving
westward at 10 kt. The wave is devoid of significant deep
convection at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 12N16W and continues SW to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N20W to 00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to
07N between 08W and 23W, and from 07S to 04N between 30W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends across northern Florida and connects to a
1013 mb low near 28N85W from which a cold front extends SW to the
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in
the NW semicircle of the low from the Florida Big Bend to offshore
SE Louisiana. Gentle to moderate notherlies are across the Bay of
Campeche while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere as high
pressure starts to build in the wake of the front. Seas are slight
basin-wide, except moderate to 5 ft in the NW semircle of the low
where the strongest winds are ongoing.

For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to exit the SE Gulf
tonight. Winds will be generally moderate or weaker on either side
of the front, except in the vicinity of the low where fresh to
strong winds are likely. High pressure and quiescent conditions
will build behind the front on today and Thu. Another weak cold
front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate
over the E Gulf on Fri. Otherwise, southeast winds are forecast to
reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong
trade winds and 5-8 ft seas across the south-central to southwest
Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and
moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and
eastern Caribbean along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent across the NW Caribbean.
Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms are ongoing offshore Costa
Rica near the E Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to
strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the weekend,
with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across the
remainder of forecast waters through Sun night, pulsing to strong
in the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun night. Large E swell with
rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from midweek
through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front extends from 30N74W to Jacksonville, Florida. The
front is generating a broad area of scattered showers and isolated
tstms N of 23N from the Florida seaboard to 65W, including the
Bahamas. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the
influence of a broad ridge anchored by high pressure located well
N of the discussion waters. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and
seas of 7-10 ft prevail from the coast of W Africa to just pass
the Cape Verde Islands from 13N to 24N. Over the remainder
tropical waters winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to E and
seas are moderate to rough. Between 55W and the Bahamas, winds are
moderate to fresh from the E to SE and seas moderate. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the warm front will continue to lift
north of the area through Thu morning. Fresh to locally strong
winds are expected west of the front with scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the front. Another weak cold front will move
off the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W
Fri morning, from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning, then E of the
area Sun. Fresh to strong S winds are expected N of 27N ahead of the front.

$$
Ramos
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)