AWUS01 KWNH 130317
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-130715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0172
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1116 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130315Z - 130715Z

Summary...A nearly stationary band of convection over
south-central Georgia was producing 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates just
northwest of Valdosta. These rates could persist for another
couple hours. Flash flooding is possible in the affected areas.

Discussion...A nearly stationary band of convection has exhibited
very slow and erratic movement over areas from near Thomasville to
near Adel. The storms were situated directly beneath an upper low
over the area, which was likely combining with weak, isentropic
ascent to support persistent, shallow updrafts despite marginal
instability (~500 J/kg MUCAPE per SPC Mesoanalyses). The overall
scenario for flash flooding was not evolving quickly, and with
peak rain rates exceeding local FFG and prompting modest MRMS
Flash responses, it is likely that local impacts from excessive
runoff are underway in at least a couple of spots.

High-res guidance suggests that storms will weaken through 06Z,
although their current handling of the scenario lends some
uncertainty, and observations suggest that the ongoing threat will
persist beyond 05Z/1a eastern. Additional local totals of 3
inches cannot be ruled out. Conditions will be monitored for
additional flash flood potential beyond 07Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_JLcn6ufdLbr1LKWHMaGV_GlcjUQjllUzR4txnx7YPCTIBOqgqz4DrpREUNqS1s9SB9i= AAZX3tszgbSnyYnhw1xaKOM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31508294 31318256 30888274 30568396 30898445=20
31298384=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130323
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-130715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0172
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1122 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130315Z - 130715Z

Summary...A nearly stationary band of convection over
south-central Georgia was producing 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates just
northwest of Valdosta. These rates could persist for another
couple hours. Flash flooding is possible in the affected areas.

Discussion...A nearly stationary band of convection has exhibited
very slow and erratic movement over areas from near Thomasville to
near Adel. The storms were situated directly beneath an upper low
over the area, which was likely combining with weak, isentropic
ascent to support persistent, shallow updrafts despite marginal
instability (~500 J/kg MUCAPE per SPC Mesoanalyses). The overall
scenario for flash flooding was not evolving quickly, and with
peak rain rates exceeding local FFG and prompting modest MRMS
Flash responses, it is likely that local impacts from excessive
runoff are underway in at least a couple of spots.

High-res guidance suggests that storms will weaken eventually,
although their current handling of the scenario lends some
uncertainty, and observations suggest that the ongoing threat will
persist beyond 05Z/1a eastern. Additional local totals of 3
inches cannot be ruled out. Conditions will be monitored for
additional flash flood potential beyond 07Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6OEC3aqxpJPnrs5VyIuUSgGYeHA44qztazW8scmJQfFPgwotsYc9lVlw8IW_qZ79RjBJ= mhdCFGRJ8j9zGJMO176dvOw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31508294 31318256 30888274 30568396 30898445=20
31298384=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161951
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-170130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0173
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern Illinois...Southern Indiana ...adjacent
Northwest Kentucky...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161950Z - 170130Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for subtle heavy rainfall style
event or two given proximity to mid-level shortwave center passing
to southeast.

DISCUSSION...19z surface analysis denotes a weak surface wave just
southeast of St. Louis, MO sitting along a stationary thermal
boundary, reinforced by early morning rainfall/outflow. CIRA LPW
suite (oblique polar pass) shows a small pool of enhanced boundary
level to 500mb moisture along combined with upper 60s and low 70s
Tds through S IL/S IND, bringing a small pocket of overall totals
over 1.75" within a favorable southwesterly to west-southwesterly
WAA 925-850mb flow regime increasing moisture flux convergence
along it. While cloud cover has been generally dense this morning
into early afternoon, some clearing and broken insolation has seen
temps into the low 80s, particularly downstream into NW KY/S IND,
resulting in a narrow west to east axis of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE that
is becoming increasingly uncapped.

GOES-E WV suite along with visible loop, shows a small mid-level
shortwave twist to the cloud pattern over NW KY that is expected
to continue a east-northeast progression further providing larger
scale ascent, especially downstream. However, aloft, RAP analysis
denotes a strong divergence signal at the far right entrance to
the jet streak over the Great Lakes across central IL, along the
northwest periphery of the shortwave. The combination of all
factors is supporting initial break out of deeper updrafts (rapid
cooling and expansion of these clusters/cells shows potential
instability of the broader area). So low level WAA/convergence
should help feed the updrafts with slow eastward movement given
15-20kts of deep mean steering flow, but overall inflow from the
west-southwest results in favorable propagation vectors for
back-building and or slowing of the forward progression of
clusters that due develop mainly because of the proximity on the
NW side of the mid-level shortwave. As a result there is good
potential for increased residency of stronger/broader moist
updrafts capable of 1.5-2"/hr rates. Localized totals of 2.5-3"
are possible.

Stronger cells with greater coverage are expected downstream/east
of the shortwave but should be forward propagating quicker;
however, these rates/quick totals of up to 1" could set the stage
for the slower moving upstream allowing repeating. While the
overall Midwest has been dry, NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture
values of 50-65% across the area of concern, which is much higher
than surrounding areas (not including this morning's rainfall
tracks). So with FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 2-2.5"/3hrs, and
proximity to flash flood prone cities like Evansville/Louisville
there is sufficient potential for a localized incident or two of
possible flash flooding through late afternoon/evening across the
area of concern.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!497FomLp5UQm8ELrJMqWCK5KLr8wHwkWmjbAMOrKtiJSJGuJBZPcDRxdQwKFWbxiyYxg= P9lrIiE-5I43OJ3RgHbNsxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39598784 39508661 39328518 38868469 38278474=20
37838551 37738654 37658748 37658849 37748931=20
38118978 38618992 39198967 39518904=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162121
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-170315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0174
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
520 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...Northern MO...Southwest IA...Ext. Southeast
NEB...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162120Z - 170315Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, back-building thunderstorms with 1.75-2"/hr
rates will support mergers and repeating through the evening
hours. Localized 3-4" totals are probable with isolated 5"+
possible. Flash flooding is considered possible, given recent dry
conditions may help mitigate moderate rainfall totals.

DISCUSSION...21z surface analysis depicts a weak surface wave near
Nebraska City, generally at the western extent of the deeper
moisture plume across the Central U.S. Deep southwesterly flow
aloft is providing broad scale ascent and lowering surface
pressures in the lee of the Rockies and driving a broad strong
southerly LLJ across the Plains and Ozark Plateau. This
moisture/higher theta-E air is generally mid-80s over upper
60s/low 70s Tds, supporting total PWats near 1.5" and with
southwesterly flow aloft, resulting in steepening lapse rates,
supportive of 3000-3500 MLCAPE across E KS into NW MO.=20=20

The surface low resides at the apex of a broader surface SW to NE
trough with the frontal boundary extending along the KS/NEB
boarder before angling northeast across south central IA into S
WI. A more important outflow boundary from last night/this
morning's convection has effectively become a deeper thermal
boundary/warm front from near CSQ in IA dropping south across
north-central MO toward KCOU before turning E across S IL. As
such, the southerly surface to 700mb southerly flow is ascending
isentropically across is boundary resulting in the first bands of
deeper convection across north-central MO. Overall, vigor remains
a bit limited but will further aid in steepening the
boundary/isentropes over the next few hours, increasing deep layer
moisture convergence. As the LLJ strengthens, flux convergence
will help to broaden updrafts and rainfall efficiency as the
overall moisture pool increases to 1.75" TPW toward 23z. Overall
coverage and broadening updrafts will allow for cells to increase
to 1.75"/hr rates with occasional 2-2.25" occurring and localized
2.5" for eventual short-term mergers.=20=20

The concern toward and after 00z, will be the broadening of the
500-1000mb thickness lines, reducing forward propagation and
bending steering flow a bit more south of due east further
increasing convergence, though this will be concurrent with
strengthening upstream inflow turning propagation vectors
southwest with time, allowing for higher potential of an
individual cell's residency and/or repeating tracks. Eventually,
back-building toward southeast NEB. A broad swath of 2-5" is
becoming more probable across this area with 18z HREF probability
of 70-90% of 3"/6hrs along/near the intersection of the
fronts/outflow along the IA/MO line. This is likely to shift
(more likely south and west given trends); the 'good news' is the
area has very high FFG values (2.5"/hr; 3-4"/3hrs) due to
prolonged dry spring with 0-40cm Soil Moisture around 25-30%,
though areas nearer the Missouri River and portions of SW IA are a
bit more moist and have lower FFG values. Still, the overall
rainfall and rates are still possible to induce widely scattered
to scattered incidents of flash flooding through 03z. Please note:
further upstream development over the Higher Central Plains is
likely to roll through later into the overnight period (after
03z), so at best, this round will only wet the upper soil column
for those cells later too, a subsequent MPD may be required.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9VcXlr9_PjGyMcyHRwzaSKTnfhvLyeyW1M46Y6h_NlSaMkIhxNXPTJ7sbEeIN-kF0ZwC= aRfQxuA7aCSzyGbrlskHsqw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41479517 41439361 40519263 39679173 38959238=20
39259379 40199563 40589631 41069611=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170035
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-170600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0175
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
834 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Portions of Northwest
Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170035Z - 170600Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving super-cells becoming localized heavy rain
producers, before main upstream cluster/MCS puts final additional
heavy burst to exceed very dry ground conditions for a widely
scattered incident or two of localized possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...00z surface and RAP boundary layer analysis depict a
very tight moisture stream along and south of well defined
stationary front that extends from active convection in SE IA and
through southern NEB from south of Lincoln to Hastings to Holdrege
before angling toward expanding progressive cluster, developing
MCS coming out of NW KS. Strong surface pressure falls upstream
has accelerated near boundary layer easterly flow increasing low
level moisture profile as noted in CIRA LPW even through the
700-500mb layer, with the 1.5" total PWat starting to nose as far
west as south-central NEB. Surface southerly flow backing with
height has provided solid low level moisture convergence given Tds
rising into the low 60s, with some trapped moisture on the
north-side of the boundary into the mid-60s as far east as Grande
Island, NEB; reducing sub-cloud evaporation. As such, recent
trends in KDP analysis show increasing degrees/KM suggesting
additional higher rainfall rates with reducing near or sub-zero
values for 'large hail' signatures strongly suggesting increasing
rainfall efficiency over the last hour or so.=20

Overall RADAR coverage of convective cores has increased as well
given numerous left splitting super-cell structures; but with the
updraft rotation, forward propagation has slowed mainly for the
right movers to increase residency . While rain-rates are still
likely inflated due to hail contamination, hourly rates of 1.5-2"
are becoming more probable given the increasing moisture flux
convergence due to isallabaric effects. Localized totals of
1.5-2.5" are becoming increasingly possible but narrowly focused
along and just north of the stationary front. However, the strong
drought in the region is resulted in very dry conditions and
allowing for a solid uptake of those totals, but the rates may
still be a tad to great locally, resulting in some spots of
localized flash flooding potential. This will only be exacerbated
as the upstream MCS cluster sweeps up/merges with the remaining
super-cells through the early overnight period across
south-central NEB, with a sub-hourly burst of .75-1" in 15 minutes
per recent HRRR output resulting in spot or two of 2-3" values
which is in the range of 1 to 3hr FFG exceedance and localized
flash flooding is therefore considered possible, more so eastward
through the MPD area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4XlChmG_LE-3luG20gQb4qjwQH7bwTkdmvJOtRUNDq3vcXB-1_eD2fJKOb0yKc6dWZMA= vAczv6JUWFHWDSMDeuaQPHE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41779746 41589658 41009601 40599586 40109621=20
40059743 39919950 39590085 40280134 40880070=20
41239990 41649855=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170331
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-170720-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0176
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...middle MO RIver to middle MS River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170328Z - 170720Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain likely across
portions of southeastern NE, northeastern KS into southwestern IA
and northwestern MO over the next couple of hours. Locations
farther east may also experience flash flooding. Peak hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches can be expected.

Discussion...An axis of thunderstorms was oriented roughly west to
east at 03Z, extending from southeastern NE into northwestern and
northern MO, with a slow moving MCV in north-central MO along the
eastern flank of the MCS. A Flash Flood Emergency was recently
issued for Grundy County, including the city of Trenton where ~6
to 8 inches of rain has fallen with embedded hourly rainfall over
3 inches (and 2.5 inches in 30 minutes) at times. Back to the
west, thunderstorm coverage was increasing over the southeastern
quadrant of NE, in advance of a forward propagating line segment
advancing along the central NE/KS border.

The activity was largely elevated atop a remnant outflow boundary
which extended ESE from southeastern NE, just south of STJ into
north-central MO. MUCAPE values were 2000-3000 J/kg via 03Z SPC
mesoanalysis data and 850 mb VAD wind data at KTWX showed
strengthening flow between 00-03Z (30 to 55 kt) with further
strengthening to near 60 kt possible by 06Z. Aloft, flow was
fairly diffluent/divergent to the south of an 80-100 kt upper jet
max north of the region. Sufficient shear and instability will
sustain a mixture of supercells and multicells with a combination
of slow cell motions, mergers and training leading to high hourly
rainfall, locally in excess of 3 inches possible over the next 2-4
hours.

There are signs in the recent hires guidance that the pattern will
be disrupted toward 06-07Z, in advance of the forward propagating
line segment over the NE/KS border as increasing southerly flow
and forcing shifts northward of the present axis. However, prior
to that time, another 3-4 hours of locally heavy rain with areas
of flash flooding will remain likely with an additional 3-5 inches
of rain possible through 07Z, with a focus in and around the MO
River Valley.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!760uQl1ohFv2KU1K6qPWh_0aJfvHwirl-l3LZ2hyyMw3Tv0DIsmmzLmmfVFlqTOOG4jb= 94fPrgL7u0SXf38ulDn2Wj4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41519233 41169114 39849151 39449302 39519515=20
39959703 40439746 40809729 41219669 41429459=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170338
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-170720-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0176...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1137 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Corrected for adjustment to capitalization in areas affected

Areas affected...middle MO River to middle MS River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170328Z - 170720Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain likely across
portions of southeastern NE, northeastern KS into southwestern IA
and northwestern MO over the next couple of hours. Locations
farther east may also experience flash flooding. Peak hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches can be expected.

Discussion...An axis of thunderstorms was oriented roughly west to
east at 03Z, extending from southeastern NE into northwestern and
northern MO, with a slow moving MCV in north-central MO along the
eastern flank of the MCS. A Flash Flood Emergency was recently
issued for Grundy County, including the city of Trenton where ~6
to 8 inches of rain has fallen with embedded hourly rainfall over
3 inches (and 2.5 inches in 30 minutes) at times. Back to the
west, thunderstorm coverage was increasing over the southeastern
quadrant of NE, in advance of a forward propagating line segment
advancing along the central NE/KS border.

The activity was largely elevated atop a remnant outflow boundary
which extended ESE from southeastern NE, just south of STJ into
north-central MO. MUCAPE values were 2000-3000 J/kg via 03Z SPC
mesoanalysis data and 850 mb VAD wind data at KTWX showed
strengthening flow between 00-03Z (30 to 55 kt) with further
strengthening to near 60 kt possible by 06Z. Aloft, flow was
fairly diffluent/divergent to the south of an 80-100 kt upper jet
max north of the region. Sufficient shear and instability will
sustain a mixture of supercells and multicells with a combination
of slow cell motions, mergers and training leading to high hourly
rainfall, locally in excess of 3 inches possible over the next 2-4
hours.

There are signs in the recent hires guidance that the pattern will
be disrupted toward 06-07Z, in advance of the forward propagating
line segment over the NE/KS border as increasing southerly flow
and forcing shifts northward of the present axis. However, prior
to that time, another 3-4 hours of locally heavy rain with areas
of flash flooding will remain likely with an additional 3-5 inches
of rain possible through 07Z, with a focus in and around the MO
River Valley.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6lp2bl8r2tBWDmKe5Xs-dZIdDzoRrojlanQquKmErPU2Z8lJDHRJW0g96IdmGe4yQwmJ= 1N4HSrlVSjiky8mbFPXahyE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41519233 41169114 39849151 39449302 39519515=20
39959703 40439746 40809729 41219669 41429459=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170747
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-171300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0177
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...western IA/MO border into IA and southwestern
WI/northwestern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170745Z - 171300Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will remain a possibility
through 13Z (8 AM CDT) from the western IA/MO border into IA and
the MS River near the WI/IL border. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches
and localized peak rainfall of 2-4 inches can be expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery across the middle MO River Valley
showed a convectively induced vorticity max along the southern
NE/IA border at 0715Z associated with an eastward bowing line
segment crossing into southwestern IA and northwestern MO. Areas
of stratiform rain preceded and followed the bowing segment (which
has shown signs of weakening over the past 30 minutes), along with
a few stronger cells near the MO/IA border. However, trends in
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall showed a reduction in the coverage
and intensity of high rain rates since 05Z as convective
development just north of a remnant outflow boundary draped across
northern MO has reduced.

Short term forecasts from the RAP indicate the shortwave/vorticity
max along the southern NE/IA border will track northeastward over
the next 3-6 hours. Low level overrunning of the remnant
outflow/effective front in northern MO will continue as the
mid-level circulation advances toward the northeast beneath
diffluent and divergent flow in the upper levels. Elevated
instability of 500 to 1000+ J/kg was estimated over southern IA
via the 07Z SPC mesoanalysis but these values fall off quickly to
the north with only modest northward advancement of the elevated
instability pool through 13Z forecast. Over the next 3-6 hours,
there will continue to be the potential for short term training
with 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour and localized potential for
2-4 inches through 13Z (8 AM CDT), located near the track of the
shortwave. While the expected potential for heavy rain over the
next few hours will be north of areas that experienced flooding
earlier tonight in northern MO, portions of IA have received 1 to
3 inches of rain over the past 48 hours which may contribute to
isolated runoff where overlap of additional heavy rain occurs.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4GSUKMFNjbMh4tO-hoxs6y7pFNqyNKqPmwEgSMHZiECgN2PqEkh6QnZ4Xi3mrGDOUgHH= BdM-up4CIAjmW8DM5mtEfF0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...LOT...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43059094 42929044 42488989 41958968 41528997=20
41139078 40659201 40059360 40149525 40569575=20
41139579 42069401 42789210=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171959
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-180200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0178
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast SD...Eastern NEB...Western IA...Far
Southwest MN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172000Z - 180200Z

SUMMARY...Increasing available moisture to support higher rainfall
efficiency over the next few hours (up to 2"/hr). Progressive
nature may be a limiting factor, but cells will move into a bit
more prone to FF due to recent rains (esp. South).

DISCUSSION...19z surface analysis depicts the very dynamic
environment in place across the Plains this afternoon (given broad southwesterly flow aloft). The southern stream shortwave last
evening that has progressed into the Great Lakes helped to
reinforce a tight moisture gradient along the primary west to east
from from a weak wave in E IA back across central IA to a surface
wave near an strong cluster of thunderstorms with a history of
hail and forward progression. CIRA LPW and RAP analysis shows a
tight, enhanced moisture plume along and south of the boundary
generally denoted by agitated Cu field (NE NEB, into central IA)
opposed by north where transverse banding shows the greater
stabilized area that is a bit drier as well across far NW IA into
SW MN. Enhanced Tds in through 850mb along with slightly backed
flow for solid moisture flux transport toward the surface low
along/ahead of main cold front NE of O'Neil, Neb.

Solid low level directional convergence has aided maintenance of
the cluster with strong deep layer moisture convergence signals
denoting the flux. As the cluster reaches the deeper moisture
axis, expectation is both increased moisture loading to the
updrafts helping to broaden downdrafts as well as increase
rainfall efficiency. Rapid refresh guidance including the HRRR
and WoFS solutions denote this uptick in the next hour or so with
sub-hourly intense rates expected; with 15-minute HRRR totals over
1-1.25" while 5-minute rates in the WoFS over .5", as high as .75"
consistently across SE SDAK. Deep layer steering and cold frontal
push are likely to limit residency time but some eastward
development along the frontal/theta-E axis may break out
additional downstream cells to help with some repeating to reach
higher required totals to induce widely scattered incidents of
flash flooding (2-3" in 1-3hrs).=20=20

Further expansion of the convection toward the south along and
north of the stronger 995mb surface low along the NEB/KS will come
as embedded shortwave in the deeper southwesterly flow approaches
and upper-level diffluence increases into a developing north-south
jet streak placing much of the area of concern in favorable
divergence/outflow environment aloft in the right entrance of said
jet streak.

Hydrologically, much of the area remains in solid drought with
0-40cm ratios in the 20-30%, though scattered activity last night
did wet a few areas, especially south and east across E NEB and
through the Missouri River Valley. As noted, above the
progressive nature will likely limit the overall coverage of flash
flooding, but the shear intensity with some repeating and possible
intersection with those wetter upper soils, suggest widely
scattered flash flooding is possible this evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7dwM4qPIPaCm2epJ080lGFFhouAWdHzoYRclS2vg1hWL3BJR43tAvrJ_2Un0Mvx5YDMj= I4jqP5Dz8fofqhCJ4bf1SEg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44499698 44179587 43629534 42319568 41069591=20
40489702 40519934 40929935 41569836 42459794=20
42909829 43449867 44209800=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180026
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0179
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
825 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast NEB...Southwest IA...Northwest
MO...Central to Northeast KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180025Z - 180600Z

SUMMARY...Training/Back-building cells at apex of dry slot will be
slow moving while higher moisture flux cells northward will track
through areas of recently saturated grounds with rates of 1.5"/hr
and spots of 2-3" totals, pose widely scattered incident or two of
flash flooding into early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...00z surface analysis depicts a very deep, but narrow
surface trough extending from a surface low in SE SD, southward to
a 993mb low just south of the central NEB/KS border at the nose of
an equally narrow but very dry slot; simultaneously, a strong
northern stream cold front is dropping southeastward from the low
resulting is a very strong surface to boundary layer flow with a
broad area of 20 to 30kts from the south slowly backing toward the
frontal zone. This results is a long axis of strong moisture flux
convergence, especially across SE NEB where Tds are in the high
60s, tipping toward the low 70s across the Missouri River into
IA/N MO. While the solid EML is well denoted in the CIRA LPW
850-700mb layer across much of this areas, return moisture
wrapped around the apex of the tight inverted trough, is pooled
along the approaching cold front. So while the steep lapse rates
are supporting MLCAPEs of 3000-4000 J/kd across E KS into SE NEB,
there is some entrainment of higher moisture and stronger
thunderstorms are starting to moisten the mid-layer profile and
overall rainfall efficiency is starting to increase and will do so
after sunset.

Coincident with the inverted trough is a tight 500-1000mb
thickness ridge the becomes a bit more divergent in isoheight
lines along and east of the trough axis. This supports reduced
forward propagation vectors, especially near the surface low and
south across central KS and with deep layer fairly unidirectional
flow from the SW, may allow for training/repeating across this
area while cells/clusters further north will start propagating east-northeastward at a more reasonable rate across E NEB into IA.
Evaporative loss will limit extreme rates, though the moisture
flux on the 30+kt inflow should support 1.5"/hr with an
occasionally uptick to 1.75"+, and may be slightly higher due to
ingest of smoke particulates from the prairie fires in Clark and
Meade counties.

Northward in SE NEB and along the IA/MO border, the heavy rainfall
last evening has brought FFG values into a range (1-1.5"/hr
<2"/3hrs) that may be locally exceeded with the clusters moving
east, suggesting a scattered incident or two of flash flooding
will be possible through early overnight period. Southward across
central KS, the unidirectional steering and upwind propagation may
allow for increased residency; so while this area's soil
conditions are very dry, the prolonged nature of rainfall with
localized spots of 2-4" may also result in localized FF. (Note: a
backyard observation near Dorrance, KS in E Russell county saw
just below 2" in the last hour). So all considering, a few spots
of flash flooding are considered possible across the MPD area of
concern through the overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5IInHaJaZZMwD3wa0TaLpebr92Hz9Aevw48MwlnPPZbxy9I-twDjBNXJPhPeOPj8Va6D= _El-L9tZjN8AHI9Tq73wSfU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42169490 42079412 41929340 41309302 40119334=20
39529611 38429803 38269948 38889946 39559824=20
40669796 41839753 42149622=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180059
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-180600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0180
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Areas affected...Northern Iowa...Southern Minnesota...Parts of
Northwest Wisconsin...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180100Z - 180600Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective coverage and increasing moisture
flux into expanding convective clusters/small MCS features support
potential for repeating and spots of 2-4". Localized flash
flooding remains possible through the early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depict broad long-wave trough across
the Inter-mountain West with broad southwesterly flow downstream
across the Plains. At the apex an expanding convective complex
shows strong diffluent outflow pattern at the right entrance to
strengthening jet streak aloft providing broad scale ascent as
well as strengthening of a broad south-southwest LLJ. At the
surface the northern surface low/apex of a tight and deep inverted
surface trough is crossing out of SE SDAK into MN while drawing a
well defined warm front northward. CIRA LPW and RAP analysis
notes that core of western Gulf moisture is finally arriving
northward along and east of the advancing cold front that extends
from the surface low back across eastern NEB. The cluster in SW
MN has a very long history of severe and strong isallobaric
backing influence to maximize moisture flux pulled along and north
of the surface front, supporting intense but short-term rainfall
rates near 1.5-2"/hr mostly falling in 15-30 minutes. However,
given the stronger LLJ and isentropic ascent, downstream
convection is filling along and northeast where convergence is
maximized. Deep layer steering flow will allow for some repeating
of the cores to increase intense rainfall duration over 1-2 hours
allowing for localized totals to reach 2-3" values.=20

In addition, a second complex north of a secondary low across NE
NEB has seen a similar rapid cooling of the cirrus canopy with
numerous overshooting tops; deeper moisture pool has also
broadened the downdrafts width as the line matures into a larger
linear convective complex. While there is a general eastward
propagation, RADAR and satellite trends suggest there is also a
potential to repeat/track through similar areas of the northern
cluster across portions of S MN/N IA. Recent WoFS runs helps to
confirm this as mean and 90th percentile qpf suggest 2.5-5"
maximum swath is possible. This provides some confidence that
spots of 2-4" are becoming increasingly possible through the early
overnight period.=20

While NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture fields show drought is solid
with ratios running from 25% in NW IA to near 40% in south-central
MN toward the Twin Cities, the FFG values suggest 1hr rates of
1.5"/hr and less than 2.5"/3hr could result in flash flooding. If
that is the case, incidents of flash flooding are possible, but
given the overall drought conditions would be looking to smaller
localized incident or two where rates can reach closer to
1.75-2"/hr, where infiltration would be reduced from the shear
amount too fast. So given the overall pattern/trends, flash
flooding continues to be considered possible across the MPD area
of concern tonight.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6z3vCw4cBcd06sL2vpD6Yb8HccNxiHhZwedU4szunbouCqvjgG3v_xalByDNTvfqKBz2= SOYEEzqR1bhyP_Oz3PWcFVo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45259218 44609139 43359219 42549394 42299574=20
42559638 43409586 44359487 45209331=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180614
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-181016-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...central/eastern KS into western MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180612Z - 181016Z

Summary...Flash flooding is likely to focus in one or two
locations from central to eastern KS into western MO through 10Z.
Training will likely result in 1-2 in/hr rates (locally higher)
with additional totals over 4 inches possible through 10Z on an
isolated basis.

Discussion...06Z radar imagery showed that an axis of elevated
thunderstorms extended from near LYO, ENE into northwestern MO
near MCI, just north and west of an outflow boundary. Training of
thunderstorms in central KS has resulted in MRMS-derived rainfall
of 3 to 9 inches over the past 6 hours from southern Rush County
into northwestern Ottawa County, though some of that could be high
due to hail contamination. However, there was at least one
Wunderground PWS with 7.26" to the southwest of Lincoln ending
0555Z.

Current satellite trends in IR imagery showed the coldest cloud
tops were slowly shifting east, coinciding with an area of strong
upper level jet induced divergence and diffluence tied to a
strengthening jet max extending from the west-central KS/NE border
into the lower Northern Plains.

A strong southerly low level jet of 50 to 65+ kt was seen in VAD
wind plots at 850 mb from northern OK into southern KS, lifting
atop the outflow boundary, with deeper layer wind vectors
supporting SW to NE training at times. Steep mid-level lapse rates
of 8-9 C/km were observed in 00Z soundings at OKC, TOP and SGF,
supporting MUCAPE values between 3000 and 4000 J/kg. Veering of
the low level jet through 10Z is forecast, as the outflow boundary
likely continues to advance southeastward, supporting continued
elevated thunderstorms with areas of training.

While increased convective inhibition with southward extent may
limit how far south convection will reach, inhibition for
locations farther east is forecast to remain weak. Therefore,
while flash flooding is not expected to be widespread, areas of
training are likely to focus high rain rates and focused flash
flooding from central to eastern KS into far western MO through
10Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_RvCK6VLD4SB8BJ7eXu9AFwKpyKQrJlac0mfDlhgLRBiWn6vCF-Guud2ENHWy1mM4cp= KrE-2EKhci4PgDhqBTBD8ak$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40009416 39409365 38369394 37779489 37539666=20
37369932 38089966 38849841 39509698 39779589=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181003
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-181500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0182
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
602 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...eastern KS into western/southwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181000Z - 181500Z

Summary...While some uncertainty remains, concerns are increasing
for possible flash flooding later this morning over
western/southwestern MO into portions of eastern KS. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and 3 to 4 inches in 3 hours will be
possible through 15Z (10 AM CDT).

Discussion...0930Z radar imagery and surface observations showed
that the southwestern end of an elongated outflow boundary has
stalled over central KS, while it continued to steadily advance
southeastward through MO. Showers and thunderstorms continued to
develop on the cool side of the boundary over eastern KS and
central MO as a strong southerly low level jet (LLJ) over KS/OK/MO
overruns the well-defined boundary. While the LLJ has weakened and
veered some over the central KS/OK border (less favorable angle to
the outflow boundary), some recent strengthening was observed at
the KINX VAD wind at 09Z to over 70 kt (but it as backed off a bit
since then). Meanwhile, disorganized shower/thunderstorm activity
has picked up over the past 45 minutes over southwestern MO,
perhaps aided by lift ahead of a vort max observed lifting NNE
from the southern OK/AR border on water vapor imagery. Steep
mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8+ C/km were contributing to sizable
MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg from southeastern KS into central MO. Aloft,
flow remained highly diffluent between the polar and sub-tropical
jet streams aloft.

While recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS have struggled to properly
handle the outflow boundary's southward propagation, they have
been consistent with an uptick in convective vigor over the next
3-6 hours, favoring the southwestern flank of the outflow near the
southern KS/MO border. It is here that the LLJ (though weakening)
will focus from northeastern OK into southwestern MO into and atop
the KS/MO outflow boundary. The environment will favor training
with 1 to 2+ inches of rain in an hour and potential for 3 to 4
inches of rain in 3 hours or less. While flash flood guidance is
quite high over much of the region, some limited/isolated flash
flood potential will exist through 15Z and perhaps continue into
the early afternoon.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_UvjHrcgw5M0uUTr5HEaIVMm2x5FP0eHz_MxqwBVy80NNb9mokYis-w2AcVN15ETHQ0n= veVfgwkacB-bhK5SD-Y-Bp0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39039508 39009309 38669248 38179217 37279244=20
36919354 37219542 37739683 37789774 38199784=20
38789717 38949649=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181536
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-182134-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...southern/central Missouri through southern
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181534Z - 182134Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall will likely continue through 21Z along
and north of the I-44 corridor, with areas of flash flooding
possible.

Discussion...A mature, elongated MCS continues to provide areas of
training thunderstorms along an axis from near Fort Scott,
KS/Nevada, MO east-northeastward through Saint Louis Metro and
into south-central Illinois. The MCS has become a bit more
perpendicular to southwesterly low-level flow (around 40-45 kts at
850mb), supporting repeating/training convection. The elevated
nature of the convection suggests seems to have limited rainfall
rates to only around 1 inch/hr in a few spots. However, the
persistence of convection (likely supported by an approaching
shortwave from the Arkansas Ozarks) should likely continue
reinforcing the mature cold pool and resulting in several more
hours of occasionally heavy rainfall.

While rain rates may not breach 1-hr FFG thresholds on a
widespread basis, it appears possible that 2.5 inch/3-hr rates
could be achieved at times along this axis. This should result in
at least isolated flash flood potential - particularly in any
low-lying and urban parts of the discussion area. Again, the
rainfall/flash flood potential will likely continue through at
least 21Z/4p CDT.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6d_3BeLUcvVriflbiqgnKPI48aIn6bliiJ9cBiWF2GKyCR4mpyal7mOikjM5djhbmbbh= Q07Cwkwiypv0XwgJRbycXQc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40018956 39938838 39348784 38518808 37868904=20
37189093 37139355 37549452 38229469 38749458=20
39069390 39649156=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181721
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-182320-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0184
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of Indiana, far southeast Illinois, and
far southwest Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181720Z - 182320Z

Summary...Flash flood potential is increasing especially across
central and southern Indiana.

Discussion...A mature convective complex was making steady
eastward progress into western and central Indiana over the past
hour per radar mosaic imagery. The southern flank of this MCS was
oriented more of a WSW-ENE fashion over southern Illinois, leading
to areas of training. Furthermore, a shortwave trough evident in satellite/objective analyses over northern Arkansas was helping to
initiate convection along and south of the leading edge of the
MCS, with several areas of mergers and 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates
(per MRMS) estimated southwest of Terra Haute (just south of
Effingham).

The overall scenario for flash flooding will translate eastward
through the afternoon, with occasional spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain
rates where training/merging is most pronounced. The rates will
fall on areas of wet soils from prior rainfall, with FFG
thresholds of 1.5 inch/hr at risk of being exceeded on at least an
isolated basis. Low-level flow drops off considerably with
eastward extent into Ohio, which lends some doubt/uncertainty on
eastward persistence of convection. Should the convective complex
remain organized, slightly lower FFGs over Ohio would suggest a
continued, yet isolated flash flood threat there.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4L-CrEcpou9u14sn7VEarQ3qO4exrqegjdwzFRPD68CCfI-emlXJAst9ApVJY7-mAc9U= 9H4CbQL__YxCqgffEW0YHDc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40438600 40438459 40228421 39648397 39128462=20
38388651 38438819 39668793 40078728=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181846
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0185
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...Central and Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast
Nebraska...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181845Z - 190000Z

SUMMARY...Severe Super-cells will have significant moisture flux
convergence to support localized rates over 2"/hr. Given
compromised upper soil conditions, localized flash flooding
conditions are considered possible in proximity to other severe
weather hazards.

DISCUSSION...SPC MCD 771 solidly describes the mesoscale setup to
produce strong updrafts and super-cell structures through the
afternoon period. Strong updrafts supported by MLCAPEs in excess
of 3500 J/kg; while driven by steep/dry lapse rates are also being
fed in the surface to boundary layer by well above average
moisture values (CIRA LPW values are at period of record
[2013-present] maximum values for most of the area). Values in
the .75-1" range confirmed by surface Tds of upper 60s to low 70s
are being advected at greater than 20-25kts into the front.=20
Surface low west of KCNK has backed the flow slightly to increase
surface moisture convergence/flux to very strong values. Combined
through depth and IVT values are well over 1000 kg/m/s per CW3E
plots.

Convective initiation is occurring near the surface wave and
southward through the cold front to around KGRD. Strong SRH will
allow for convective mode for super-cell structures, likely with
broad updrafts/downdrafts and given slight right turning, should
reduce forward cell motions increasing residency time.=20
Additionally, the isallobaric influences will further accelerate
inflow and moisture flux convergence to overcome modest overall
deep moisture (~1.5 TPW, currently), but will steadily increase to
support 2"/hr rates...with HRRR 15-minute rainfall totals forecast
in excess of 1.25", eventually reaching 1.5"/15 minutes by 22-23z
time frame.

As they mature along the front and toward the northeast, some left
splitters and general northeast cell motions may allow for some overlap/repeating...so spots of 2-3" totals are becoming possible
through 00z across NE KS into SE NEB. Given the recent heavy
rainfall in the area, the 0-40cm soils have become much further
saturated ranging from 50% to near 75% in far SE NEB. As such,
FFG values are reduced with 1hr values less than 1.5" across much
of NE KS, SE NEB, SW IA and N MO; with a narrow axis across
Ottawa to Ness county that saw over 5" in spots. Given the
scattered nature of the super-cells initially (before sunset)
localized flash flooding is considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4TUv9HX-IwzVxgy5IzlGLffafe0fsF8LSmJKdfQYgZTH-_6tDr1N8t9_1LVyyQU3DHZt= p-2MXNurHa_EnIBsqJVgni8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40559578 40119531 39249571 38679693 38309783=20
38009886 38419904 39229789 39689744 40549667=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 182056
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-190245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0186
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...Southern MO...Southern IL...Southern IND...Adj.
Northwestern KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 182100Z - 190245Z

SUMMARY...Continued over-running redevelopment within favorable repeating/training flow regime will continue potential for
1.5-2"/hr rates and additional 2-3" streaks in proximity to areas
currently flooding or approaching. As such, localized incidents
of new or renewed flash flooding are likely through evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and 21z surface analysis
denotes the main push of the squall line and stronger
thunderstorms from the Lower Peninsula of MI across NW OH into far
SE IND before the boundary orients more parallel to the deeper
steering flow aloft and acts more of an outflow boundary and
isentropic ascent surface from around KBAK, IND across IL passing
KLWV to KMVN before passing KFAM, TBN across S MO and fading to
the mean environment just north of KFSK in E KS. South of which
broad south to southwesterly flow with unseasonably high (ten-year
climo maximum, per CIRA LPW) low level moisture with Tds in the
upper 60s to low 70s along the length. CIRA LPW notes that the
surface to 850mb layer is very broad back into the central Plains,
but the keep to the higher moisture flux occurs with the core of
the 850-700 and 700-500mb layers over eastern AR through southern
IL resulting in total PWats at or just above 2" across S IL with
1.75" extending back through the Ozark plateau.

While GOES-E WV suite shows the main shortwave/vorticity center
exiting across the central Great Lakes (aiding forward propagating
squall line across OH), there does remain favorable divergence
aloft within the right entrance of the jet across N MO into a 90
kt speed max across WI; which continues to drive the broad and
generally confluent LLJ to maximize convergence along the upwind
edge of the outflow boundary. RAP analysis still shows a source
of 1500-2000 J/kg across the Ozark Plateau into S IL; though with
some capping remaining. The convergence along the isentropic
surface still aids scattered convective initiation and maintenance
from south-central MO. This will continue to develop in the
favorable ascent regime and with ample deep layer moisture should
remain fairly effective with 1.75"/hr rates occasionally
increasing to 2" with strongest updrafts.=20

As noted above, the deep layer steering flow remains parallel to
the ascent plane and only subtly south of the earlier axis of
convective activity. The overlap with the saturated/actively
flooding areas of southern MO into S IL and SW IND, have a solid
potential of renewing localized flash flooding through the evening
as the core of the warm conveyor belt and mid to upper-level
forcing shift eastward. Streaks of additional 2-3" totals
(isolated locally 4" psbl) may further expand the risk of inducing
new incidents of flash flooding further south of the initial axis
as well. This may also affect some flash flood prone urban
centers along the Ohio River as well, if cold pool/outflow
generation is stronger than currently forecast...so have included
portions of NW KY and extended the MPD, though the band is more
likely to remain north.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ziynu1zP-SbFbJeBhzuOm8b99ld3T41fgdEgBimPymBpylSD-WI_iRpWyhKys-tLEkL= Ec09Rw21XThQARnG1TaKJSU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39918552 39138483 38298507 37758607 37238839=20
37059076 37249252 37589377 38139360 39039122=20
39388880 39748743=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 182302
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0187
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...Southwest IA...Southeast NEB...Northwest
MO...Central & Northeast KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 182300Z - 190500Z

SUMMARY...Strong moisture flux convergence will help to spur
upscale growth from individual supercells to larger clusters with
increasing rainfall potential and coverage. Rates of 2"/hr+ and
localized totals of 2-4" (isolated 5"), especially across areas
recently saturated are likely to result in increasing incidents of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...22z surface analysis and RADAR mosaic have changed
very little over the last few hours though the dryline has surged
out of the OK/TX panhandles and helped concentrate southerly moist
flux to expand convective initiation well into south-central KS.=20
Main clusters of supercells have are at bit more progressive out
of southeast NEB with some eastward turning and increasing
coverage and has started to move out of MPD 185 area of concern
into SW IA and far NW MO. Additionally, the remainder of the
cold front from the northern inflection E of Lincoln, NEB and
secondary low near Salina, KS has filled in with broadening
up/downdrafts; as such total PWats have increased along the cold
front as the total column moistens with this increasing coverage.=20
Tds in the 70s and sub-boundary layer LPW values near 1" along
with 20-30kts of southerly flow continue to provide strong
moisture flux to encourage increasing rainfall efficiency over the
next few hours.

GOES-E WV shows the upper level jet streak is currently rounding
the base of the negative tilt up-level trof over the Northern
Plains and as a result, upper level divergence pattern will
further increase over the next few hours within strengthening DPVA
and right entrance ascent patterns across the frontal zone. This
should support further upscale growth of the cells toward clusters
as we near sunset. Cold pool generation, right-turning
supercells, should support further storm-scale interaction for
more eastward propagation allowing some increased short-term
training/repeating (as noted with clusters in NW MO already). As
such localized streaks of 2-4" totals will become more likely.

Across the MPD area a broadening/divergent of the 500-1000
thickness fields suggests east to southeast forward propagation
with time as well; increasing orthogonal flanking line
intersection to expand back-building potential. This
slowing/turning could be the greatest further south along the
upstream edge near the nose of the dryline/cold front where
steering flow is just a tad weaker overall aloft and support
longer residency times. Of course, south-central KS will require
this longer residency given the area has missed out on the
complexes/heavy rainfall over the weekend.=20

While severe/tornadic hazards remain the primary concern
currently, this will transition toward flash flooding and given
the majority of the area (north of 38.5N latitude) has FFG values
at or below the hourly expected rates (1-1.75"/hr) and generally
less than 2.5"/3hrs. As such, incidents of flash flooding will
become more likely and with greater overall coverage. Hi-Res CAMs
including the WoFS/HRRR continue to suggest very intense
sub-hourly totals (1.5"/15 minutes per HRRR) and isolated totals
of 5".=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_k5xgZhLf7L-8NSAQvbjntdQ-T2kymdmVNQgK1iHUxefJgzd01xOQfhfC0sU7QRxPWKj= oQ_Km8qG3G4MUsdaJdSyab0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41899371 41709307 41259253 40579249 40039284=20
39029379 38049551 37489790 37969841 38759779=20
40729682 41509594 41829502=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190502
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-191000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0188
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...northeastern OK into southeastern KS,
southwestern/central MO and northwestern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190457Z - 191000Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible through 10Z from northeastern OK into
southeastern KS, southwestern to central MO, and perhaps far
northwestern AR. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected, but
values may locally exceed 2 inches.

Discussion...04Z surface observations showed a cold front
extending from northeastern KS into northwestern OK and the
northern TX Panhandle, preceded by a line of thunderstorms which
arced from central MO into southeastern KS. An outflow boundary
was located at the leading edge of the thunderstorms with a faster
southeast motion over MO as compared to KS, allowing convective
line orientation to match that of the mean steering flow from the
WSW, supporting training and hourly rain of 1 to 2+ inches. 04Z
SPC mesoanalysis data showed 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in central MO,
increasing to as much as 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in north-central OK,
west of I-35, out ahead of the outflow boundary.

A strong southerly low level jet was observed over central OK (65
kt at 850 mb VAD wind plots from KTLX and KINX), veering and
weakening slightly into MO. This orientation will favor the best
angle (closest to orthogonal) into the southward sagging boundary
over OK where continued convective development is likely as the
front/outflow move south over the next few hours. The convective
line orientation will support WNW to ENE training at times with 1
to 2+ in/hr rainfall and possible flash flooding from an
additional 2 to 4+ inches through 09Z. Flash flood potential will
be increased should training overlap with urban locations or
lowered flash flood guidance due to heavy rain over the past 24
hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8v38Pb97uNhb3tglFBsnMhOOeYQ3jUBEHeJ3oyqH4BhmH5-qkqPHeGpRotGvamrnTi-D= mRp7SwVKYmhaEwVc6tg8Lpo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38989302 38819179 37939125 37089184 36359389=20
35899567 35629673 35779761 36699814 37629629=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191318
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-191830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0189
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191317Z - 191830Z

Summary...Scattered instances of flash flooding likely, with
possible localized considerable impact, over the Ozarks rest of
the morning. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected to
continue with 3 to 4 inches possible in three hours.

Discussion...A cold front continues to push southeast toward the
ozarks with prefrontal organized activity still with two distinct
areas currently over northern AR and over eastern OK. The junction
of these two MCSs caused 2-5" rainfall near the OK/MO border early
this morning with rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr still occurring over
southwest MO and northern AR. An MCV is likely to develop in the
left bookend from the OK MCS that generally works its way east
along the MO/AR border rest of the morning. SWly low level flow is
parallel to the outflow from eastern OK which should allow for an
additional round of heavy rainfall. This area is quite dry with
high flash flood guidance, but the Ozarks are a known flash flood
prone area with the terrain and high runoff, so there are concerns
for considerable impacts from 2-4" in a few hours.

1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.8" PW with SWly flow of 20-25kt is
sufficient to support repeating heavy thunderstorms along over
much of the Ozarks rest of this morning. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs
appear to be under analyzing the left bookend/MCV development
risk. Those models place greater QPF focus over southeastern OK
where activity is currently progressive.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9p7M17PwHANKTj4SqP95rmq8I3uH44ydydOuRRCmXMKTbHDF8N_9un3S5Eb-JGq8UVIP= DDi480Aqeu3o705JM5j-9E0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36919319 36699203 36449141 35449183 35079313=20
35239454 35969486 36529458 36899422=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191409
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-191930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0190
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1008 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas into
Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191407Z - 191930Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding possible over southeast Oklahoma
into northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas through the early
afternoon. Slowing progression of organized thunderstorms should
allow hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with up to 4 inches
possible in three hours over this previously parched area.

Discussion...Prefrontal organized activity over southeast OK is
oriented parallel to the southwesterly low level flow. This has
caused a slowing to progression and longer duration of heavy rain
over east-central OK. Continued new development merging in with
this line will allow a flash flood threat to shift to northeast TX
through midday. MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg and PW of 1.6 inches will
maintain rapid development and heavy rainfall rates of 2 to
possibly 3 inches per hour. This area has been dry for the past
week, so flash flood guidance is quite high. Flash flooding should
be restricted to the areas with the highest rainfall and in
urbanized areas that get at least a few inches. Recent RRFS runs
have been heavier than the HRRR which seem reasonble as the HRRRs
have been underdoing current activity. Areas ahead of the cold
front will continue to be monitored given the unstable and moist
environment.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9xGuIJ2sMD90LaTgorzLktrKt6RVD1OvJZUQlQ2LZ3QMW6ZLHSY1HiM57fhH0FwvvcMQ= J3do1pGPsLfu2EoXT0jejaQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35429542 35409467 35079390 34609344 33679353=20
32479558 32549776 33609832 34629744 35189636=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191750
FFGMPD
TXZ000-192330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0191
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Texas and Concho Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191748Z - 192330Z

Summary...Additional instances of isolated flash flooding possible
over northwest Texas/the Concho Valley into Central Texas through
the afternoon. Thunderstorms developing along/just behind a cold
front should continue to produce hourly rainfall of 1 to 2.5
inches with up to 4 inches possible in three hours over this
previously parched area.

Discussion...Frontal activity has rapidly redeveloped along/behind
a cold front near San Angelo. Earlier activity west of Abilene
became stationary as low level flow fed it, allowing 3-4 inch
maxima. The newer activity is more scattered in nature, but given
the abundant instability (MLCAPE of 3500 J/kg) and moisture
pooling along the front (1.4 to 1.6 inch PW from west to east in
the drawn threat area) should continue to rapidly develop and
could congeal into a more organized cluster in the lower shear
environment (20-25kt effective shear).=20

The HRRR continues to struggle with convection today with
difficulty maintaining this central/NW Texas activity while the
RRFS has a better handle on reality and seems reasonable with
scattered output of 1.5 to 4 inches through 00Z across central and
western portions of the drawn threat area.

All of southern Plains have been dry for the past week which may
allow increased runoff depending on the local soil type. Flash
flood guidance is high, generally 2.5 inches per hour, so the
flash flood risk should remain isolated through the afternoon.
Activity should continue to shift south with the cold front, so
followup discussions should be south of this area.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9PuE01FVqLsWcYrZKj-3Sno7EK4KS0V6esu-LmVasF3gtUITxSn883ddFDcg9iOhI5wo= FIJoNaGc1EdtBlFkLupiYf4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32899797 32599726 31739728 31009795 30739923=20
30600018 30800175 31470179 31830151 31910036=20
32279940 32629863=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191943
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-200141-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0192
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...north/northeast Texas, southwestern Arkansas,
northern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191941Z - 200141Z

Summary...A slow-moving complex of thunderstorms will continue to
produce local areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates. Isolated flash
flood issues are possible -- especially in low-lying and urban
areas -- through 0130Z/830p central.

Discussion...A mature, linear convective complex was making slow
southward movement across north/northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex
region over the past hour. The slow movement was occurring due to
weak steering flow aloft, slow propagation and expansion of a cold
pool upstream of convection, and continued, renewed updrafts along
the leading edge of the gust front. The airmass downstream of the
complex was strongly unstable (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and weakly
inhibited (negligible cap). These factors, along with the
presence of a weak mid-level wave over east Texas, should continue
to support scattered convection along and ahead of the complex for
the next several hours.

Slow movement and propagation has led to areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr
rain rates at times, with isolated 2 inch/hr spots near the most
persistent convection. This is generally lower that FFG
thresholds areawide, suggesting that any flash flood threat should
be tied to sensitive/urban terrain and mostly isolated in nature.=20
Occasional cell mergers should result in brief local peaks in rain
rates - especially with continued heating and ascent from the
mid-level wave near the region. Convection should reach the I-20
corridor in northeast Texas/north Louisiana over the next 2-4
hours (2130-2330Z).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ZAPFXnApdZj3yMlqvhhFcxkPa9cb9xwebc8N5Na5H78oEIPaHL-l6yDCZshhF3Guwzh= gGVamI0QoX0NCvIdA6kdbqU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35059191 33339167 32279193 31719240 30909412=20
30699712 32089801 33139811 33669680 33679670=20
34009564 34329428 34959291=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192332
FFGMPD
TXZ000-200530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0193
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of west and central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192330Z - 200530Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms continue to produce high rain
rates - locally exceeding 2 inches/hr at times. Flash flooding is
likely on at least a localized basis.

Discussion...In the last half hour, an east-west oriented band of
cellular convection has intensified rapidly along an axis from
near Big Lake, TX east to near Llano, with other scattered
convection northeast of that axis (west of Waco) and also just
north of the Big Bend area. These storms were focusing along a
very slow-moving cold front in that vicinity. Furthermore, very
strong mid-level lapse rates (exceeding 8C/km) and near 70F
dewpoints were contributing to 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, further
supporting strong updrafts. Weak steering flow was evident (only
20 knots or so at 500mb), enabling convection to exhibit slow and
at times erratic storm motions. Moisture/instability profiles
were supporting local 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates that were
approaching FFG.

Overall increasing convective trends are likely to continue amid a
subtle increase in low-level flow into the aforementioned front
through the evening hours. Slow/erratic storm motions are likely
to continue with this activity, though upscale growth into a
convective complex appears probable as cold pools mature and
merge. Models hint at additional convection emanating from
northern Mexican higher terrain that may also organize and merge
with pre-existing convection across the discussion area and pose a
flash flood risk. Areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates are likely to
continue on at least a localized basis, posing a flash flood
threat especially in sensitive locales. 5 inch totals are also
possible. This threat is likely to continue through 05Z/midnight
central time, and a gradual eastward and/or southeastward shift in
flash flood potential should materialize, though this evolution is
likely highly dependent on how quickly storms can grow upscale
during the evening. Locally significant impacts are possible in sensitive/flood-prone areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5BnUTs18pNt79v1mrxFp1RI9sJob9cGID-yuhkGXdQhZExVWaWBLtEObLxJzhPJ7HSxo= 0ybwYKM-wB9jz9wB3vZCJJQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32169913 32029761 31589676 31199632 30409619=20
29599647 28919807 28499958 28340015 29080082=20
29660173 29460284 29830317 30790276 31910120=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192355
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200353-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0194
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
754 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...southern Indiana, southwestern Ohio, northern
Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192353Z - 200353Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms were exhibiting localized
training, with rates increasing to about 1 inch/hr on a localized
basis. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were migrating eastward at a
decent pace across the discussion area this afternoon (~30 knots).
Storms in Ohio were organized into forward-propagating bands,
though upstream areas over Indiana into southwestern Ohio were
exhibiting slightly more favorable orientation for local training.
The convective orientation was favoring areas 1 inch/hr rain
rates on an isolated/spotty basis across the region, which was
approaching rather low FFG thresholds across the region due to wet
soils from prior rainfall the past few days.

Current trends suggest that an isolated flash flood risk will
exist for at least another couple hours. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
values and 1.9 inch PW values should sustain thunderstorms with
efficient rainfall rates at times through sunset. Thereafter, the
combination of surface cooling, convective overturning, and an
approaching front from the west should lead in a downtick in
convective coverage and attendant flash flood potential. Peak
risk will exist from now through around 03Z/11p eastern or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Xq3kNuwUw8o0r4ib0YG7-HzIp87oQ6zkIH3E170SVZlDdZOcThaeQRxDGk7Pch8VxLH= c9LukOjbCkNkimrj4qU6JoQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40188453 40048307 39338280 38688362 38318491=20
38128631 38118760 38638758 39088725 39628635=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200415
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-200815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0195
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1214 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Areas affected...southwestern to central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200413Z - 200815Z

Summary...Brief training of heavy rain may allow for localized
hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches from southwestern to central MS
over the next 2-4 hours. Localized flash flooding may result,
especially if overlap occurs within urban centers along I-55 from
Jackson to McComb.

Discussion...04Z radar imagery and surface observations showed a
NNE to SSW oriented line of thunderstorms moving east from western
MS along an outflow boundary. The environment was quite moist and
unstable with PWs between 1.8 and 2.1 inches along with 500-1500
J/kg MLCAPE as seen in the 00Z JAN sounding and 03Z SPC
mesoanalysis. The outflow boundary is expected to continue to
slowly but steadily move east over the next couple of hours but
recent development out ahead of the outflow in southwestern MS
near the LA border may support localized higher hourly rainfall
values aided by short term training. Where training sets up, the
environment supports the potential for 2 to 3+ inches of rain in
an hour and totals near 4 inches. Given the fairly high flash
flood guidance, this threat should likely be more urban in nature
or within other poorly draining locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QXuIH5NQ7qC8QriiroSiKSFLqL9MVHxJJMa0lcAkNUWJ9_F09jgH9rSzliX55m3S2oQ= MQrZB7FhEs7A6R-qY8RGglg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33398994 33018939 31359022 30949071 31019132=20
31449136 32039098 32769069=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200552
FFGMPD
TXZ000-201150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0196
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Areas affected...south-central TX to middle TX coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200550Z - 201150Z

SUMMARY...Over the next 3-6 hours, localized flash flooding will
be possible over south-central TX to the middle TX coast due to
high rainfall rates locally exceeding 2 to 3 in/hr at times and
isolated storm total rainfall over 5 inches possible.

DISCUSSION...0515Z radar imagery showed a roughly west-east
oriented line of thunderstorms stretching from Kinney County to
Brazoria County. These storms were located along a composite
outflow boundary, sinking south, with an inflection point over
Colorado County due to prior merging of two outflow boundaries. An
northern bookend vortex/MCV feature, currently over Burleson
County, has been associated with some of the highest rainfall
rates with this complex. It is with this feature where
MRMS-derived rates had been 2 to 3+ inches per hour for a few
hours and local Wunderground sites near I-35 reported closer to 4
inches in an hour between 00-02Z.

High rain rates tied to the east-southeastward tracking MCV
feature over Burleson County are expected to wane over time as it
becomes further displaced from the better instability to the
south. Going forward, the outflow boundary is forecast to continue
dropping south with time into moderately strong MLCAPE of
2000-4000 J/kg and PWs of 1.8 to 2.1 inches via 05Z SPC
mesoanalysis data. While the outflow's exact motion remains
uncertain, given the convective line's orientation is not a
straight line, links/bends and short-term training will be
possible as it advances generally southward. 850-300 mb and 0-6 km
mean layer winds are less than or equal to 15 kt which will be
supportive of slow cell motions at times just behind or perhaps
just ahead of the outflow should pre-"frontal" cells form within
the highly unstable environment. Localized flash flooding may
result, including over a stripe of higher soil moisture due to 2
to 4+ inches of rain which fell early Tuesday morning from Aransas
to Corpus Christi Bay and westward.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6NX8hoVVmHJU-AZsF_YmMKPPVpyjpk0FfS99gLoSzn9YcYOidzlE--Jokl8NxLX16CqJ= ZRKEOMx7aZ60_kwXpULy9ik$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30409616 30379581 29519542 29159485 28759501=20
28239599 27799670 27359740 27339875 27679991=20
28730064 28990033 29019972 29039796 29519692=20
30009652 30259646=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201749
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-202345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0197
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
148 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Areas affected...Louisiana and Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201746Z - 202345Z

Summary...Slow moving and possibly training thunderstorms bring a
risk for localized hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches to southern
Louisiana and much of Mississippi this afternoon. Localized flash
flooding may result, especially between Lake Charles and New
Orleans and up the I-55 corridor through Mississippi.

Discussion...Regional radar and surface observations depict a
surface trough extending east of an MCV off the Upper Texas Coast
to New Orleans and a north-south oriented trough spanning most of
western Mississippi. Convective storms have broken out along both
troughs where ample moisture (PW of 1.8 to 2") and instability
(SBCAPE >2500 J/kg) are pooled. Continued rapid development of
this activity is expected through the early afternoon. SSWly low
level flow over MS will allow activity to repeat, raising the risk
of flash flooding, particularly for urban areas and places west of
I-55 that saw a couple inches of rain last night. Convergence on
the southern LA trough should continue as onshore flow feeds
development. Sensitive urban areas in LA such as NOLA and Baton
Rouge are most vulnerable in this case of generally scattered
convective activity. Areas with repeating activity could see
2-3"/hr rates which are generally under flash flood guidance,
limiting the flash flood risk to the more sensitive areas and in
the isolated precip maxima.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ASTQtt1muyCN5k79iHIg4pMxJPCQUX95r12_Be92R_2InwbAv7FgZP4eHWYpOZzpbol= 4ofWmz3iEXzBGpH3o08nqTc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35088908 34968841 34868819 33548849 31508942=20
30198954 29449052 29279240 30039318 30829161=20
32249119 33739068 34399026 34688989 34978955=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201803
FFGMPD
TXZ000-202100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0198
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201800Z - 202100Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding is possible across west Texas
for the next 2-3 hours.

Discussion...Scattered, deep convection has developed along an
axis from Brownfield (southwest of Lubbock) southward to Odessa.=20
Storms were drifting northward at a decent clip (around 20-25
knots or so), though localized backbuilding and the orientation of
the convection was supporting local rain rates over 1 inch/hr just
northwest of Midland. These storms are being forced by a weak
shortwave trough approaching the area from the TransPecos,
leveraging mid-level moisture, strong cloud-bearing shear, and
steep (8C/km) mid-level lapse rates for organized convection.=20
This regime will continue to support isolated flash flood
potential over at least the next 2-3 hours.

Evolution beyond this time frame is in question. The lead wave
encouraging ongoing convection will continue to eject
northeastward and may result in a brief lull in convection for a
time. However, upstream shortwave energy (per objective analyses
over far southern New Mexico and vicinity could reinvigorate
convection over areas currently experiencing heavy rainfall
through the afternoon/evening. The overall flash flood threat
should remain isolated and tied to local sensitivities -
especially with high FFG thresholds across the region. The flash
flood risk will exist through 20Z, with reevaluation of convective
trends for another MPD issuance expected at around that time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4C7NE9tIU-QUtUTW5i2YUMqO2rQhqWa-h3q0sffIQklw1_wzqENlnh-hv1MNpZKkL3Bk= RcJLOn7242cmQc4AcpUURnc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35130100 33840007 31690032 30260160 30650264=20
33850292 34840238=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201918
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-210016-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0199
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of Maryland, Pennsylvania, northern
Virginia, and the District of Columbia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201916Z - 210016Z

Summary...Thunderstorms increasing across the Appalachians may
eventually pose an isolated flash flood risk as they move toward
the I-95 corridor through 00Z/8p eastern.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have increased in coverage
across the higher terrain of the central/northern Appalachians
(from near Harrisonburg, VA north to near Harrisburg, PA). These
storms are in an environment with moderate instability (around
1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and sufficient deep-layer shear for
organization. Spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates were noted in central
Pennsylvania per MRMS data, with lower rates elsewhere across the
discussion area.

On their current track, storms are expected to reach the urban
I-95 corridor from Washington, DC to Philadelphia in the 21-23Z
(5p-7p eastern) timeframe. Isolated areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates
cannot be ruled out as these storms move through. The heavier
rainfall potentially occurring over urban/sensitive terrain could
cause isolated flash flood instances through 00Z/8p eastern.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6RAm82rpGm3cxlM3mDIKWA6QYfoKwiUWj9jpSucli408F2YovmVfkNIPpVsWhmo2FT7v= 3DL3oBq84tlsYQRTYbSEorE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40917596 40467476 39357615 38717707 38607885=20
39687902 40717818=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210110
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210708-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0200
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of western through central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 210108Z - 210708Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to expand in
coverage south of San Angelo. These storms may ultimately form a
complex that spreads areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates across portions
of the Hill Country overnight. Flash flooding is expected on at
least an isolated basis.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms are expanding in coverage
along an axis from near Ozona to near Menard - or along and just
north of I-10. The storms are associated with 1) a bowing complex
that originated from higher terrain over the TransPecos and 2)
along a remnant boundary/front from prior convection yesterday.=20
Storms were generally migrating eastward, but embedded in an
environment with steep lapse rates (downstream of an EML over far
west Texas) and supported by ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of
the aforementioned boundary.

As storms mature in this environment, they'll likely become prone
to multiple mergers and limited training over time as modest
low-level flow increases and results in convergence along the
aforementioned boundary. This will likely aid in spreading 2
inch/hr rain rates eastward over portions of the Hill Country that
received 2-4 inches of rain last night. Flash flooding is likely
in at least a few areas. Flash flood concerns may increase
substantially if storms can persist eastward toward the general
vicinity of Llano and Round Rock/Austin Metro. Those areas are
likely sensitive from previous rainfall and impacts that occurred
overnight last night.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6RysrWNZrAtRfRsVAq51_PTE14ve3ls0mbMRp3Fqo1j90__HWnMKIdTrbMrG5tOUZhrX= kC8us5KBUbkve15dJQ8TJlo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32199832 31839692 30559672 29509806 29530081=20
29860259 30770177 31250156 31660110 31810011=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210229
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0201
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1028 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Areas affected...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210230Z - 210815Z

SUMMARY...Initial slow moving cluster capable of 2"+/hr rates
should pre-wet the upper-soils as main line/wave emerges out of
Mexico in the middle of the overnight period. Localized 2-4"
totals, isolated 5" may result in isolated to widely scattered
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A very moist, conditionally unstable environment
exists in the lower Rio Grande Valley with a solid pocket of 2500
J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE remaining, given mid-80s temps over low
70s Tds. CIRA LPW along with RAP analysis/short-term forecasts
show enhanced low level moisture moving up the river valley with
winds recently backing in response to the approaching upstream
shortwave over the Big Bend exiting to the northeast and favorable
upper-level divergence pattern starting to emerge from the Sierra
Madre in E Coahuila into N Nuevo Leon. As such, recent
directional convergence in this response has seen fairly vigorous
convective initiation across Starr county and points across the
river in Mexico. Low level inflow has a few hours of
southeasterly moist/unstable inflow to maintain the cluster.=20
Given 2" total PWats and weak (less than 20kts of flow), moisture
loading and updraft vigor should support 2"/hr rates with
localized uptick to 2.5" possible. Deep layer sheared flow with
easterly flow in the low levels and weak confluent 700-500
steering flow from south to north, should allow for tilted
updrafts but slow moving to allow for increased residency. Spots
of 2-3" are possible.=20=20

The greater concern, is this cluster will continue to expand but
slowly weaken as the upstream inflow reduces (note veering profile
recently at KBRO/KCRP), but upper-level forcing via DPVA and
divergence aloft from the increasingly diffluent upper level flow
(right entrance over the Edwards Plateau) to provide favorable
environment for convective clusters to advance/merger out of the
Mexican highlands into the RGV generally timed after 06-07z. As
such, an additional 2-3" totals should occur and with overlap,
broader area of 2-4" with isolated 5"+ totals are possible.=20=20

While the area is in drought and have naturally higher FFG values,
urban centers and intense rates would be the main driver for
possible incident or two of localize flash flooding through the
overnight period.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-sh4wMMi0kORMHE6gk5OMyl1GOh6y0rZBNZeISXBo8akF9v-3Zb0_irRrQTyH4uoXs6x= UYYPHCE85x5faDYsXQoE0Uk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27889940 27549859 27139807 26509780 26139780=20
25989807 26229873 26429914 26979946 27539960=20
27749979=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211120
FFGMPD
TXZ000-211419-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0202
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
719 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of the middle Texas Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211119Z - 211419Z

Summary...Areas of slow-moving, banded thunderstorm activity may
produce local rain rates of 2-3.5 inches per hour this morning.=20
Flash flooding is possible if this activity occurs over sensitive
locales.

Discussion...A mature MCS is making slow, steady progress along
portions of the lower Texas Coast and south Texas - generally
extending from near Corpus Christi southward to Brownsville. Slow
movement (around 20 knots - locally slower) and abundant
moisture/instability downstream over adjacent Gulf waters was
aiding efficient precipitation rates (around 3 inches/hr) in the slowest-moving, northern end of the complex.

Meanwhile, a new band has developed downstream of this complex
near Port Lavaca. This band is oriented more parallel to steering
flow aloft and perpendicular to the approaching complex from the
west. 2+ inch/hr rain rates are already being estimated with this
activity.

Over the next 1-3 hours, the forward propagation of the mature MCS
and slow-movement of the downstream convective band will promote a
prolonged period of heavy rainfall especially along/near the
middle Texas Coast. FFG thresholds of 2.5 inch/hr should be
eclipsed with this activity, and local totals of 5+ inches cannot
be ruled out through 14Z/9a central this morning. Flash flooding
is possible - especially if these rainfall totals occur over any
sensitive or low-lying/flood prone areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-TaqzPOzCrKt7UDQr6CNoE1rVSLFPXlqvLdXrSAS3wLtOXHa6Fl8YR0MaGcLyWZLuy80= jtx0p06eTw8IJ5YN6m9vNkc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29209606 29159493 28569474 28449491 28289597=20
27999679 27399667 27369726 27739758 28459782=20
28959718=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211706
FFGMPD
TXZ000-212304-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0203
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211704Z - 212304Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain possible within an
axis generally extending from near Midland to near San Angelo and
San Saba.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to focus along a
subtle surface boundary in the general vicinity of Midland to San
Angelo to near San Saba. Heating south of this boundary has
enabled 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop with minimal inhibition,
supporting continued convection. Additionally, cool easterly
low-level trajectories and continued rainfall along and north of
the boundary was likely acting as a reinforcing mechanism to
continue maintenance of the boundary and continued updrafts.=20
Modest storm motions and backbuilding was supporting occasional
areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates to materialize with the most
persistent activity. These rain rates were approaching FFG
thresholds (around 1.5 inch/hr) on a localized basis.

Rainfall was occurring on ground conditions that are likely
sensitive from prior rainfall over the region in the last 72 hours
or so. Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be completely
ruled out in this regime. While the persistence of this
convection regime is uncertain (and likely modulated by the
persistence and movement of the low-level boundary spawning the
convection across the region), models are generally consistent in
maintaining thunderstorm activity through the afternoon amid
southwesterly flow aloft. It is also worth noting that slightly
lower FFGs (around 1 inch/hr) exists generally from San Angelo to
Junction (just south of ongoing activity), which may represent a
slightly higher flash flood threat if heavier rain rates
materialize there.

Cook=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!94vsFyB58N6FlZzS3GXISzDBy84vGqb5ZhF1S8tquMYOC8itHL1ft6nW4mxkhDzjjcA3= XEYMxHG7vD5Rrz7CUAOpJVc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33150160 32850033 31789879 31049845 30359895=20
30119970 30330071 31260172 32020240 32490268=20
32830244=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 212017
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0205
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212015Z - 220215Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms are producing isolated spots
of rainfall rates approaching 2-3 inches/hr at times. Flash
flooding is possible on an isolated basis through 02Z/9p central.

Discussion...A complicated surface pattern exists across much of
Oklahoma currently. Prior moderate to heavy rainfall has resulted
in an expansive cold pool anchored across central Oklahoma as of
20Z. On the southern and eastern peripheries of this cold pool,
surface heating and subtle confluence along differential heating
zones has led to scattered thunderstorm development. The
pre-convective airmass supporting heavy rainfall is characterized
by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5+ inch PW values, while weak
mid/upper steering flow has caused slow and at times erratic cell
motions, further promoting heavy rainfall. As of 20Z, the
heaviest rainfall was located near from the Wichita Mountains of
southwest Oklahoma southward through western north Texas and also
near McAllister and Okmulgee. FFG thresholds vary widely across
the region, but are lowest from north-central Texas through
eastern Oklahoma (around 1.5.2 inch/hr) and near 2.5 inch/hr
elsewhere across the discussion area. These FFG thresholds were
being exceeded on an isolated basis.

Overall trends will continue for at least a few hours, with very
slow/erratic movement and perhaps isolated upscale growth at
times. It appears that convection across southwestern Oklahoma
and western north Texas may prompt enough overturning with time to
stabilize the low level airmass and lessen the flash flood risk,
though this process may take some time to play out. Convection
over eastern Oklahoma may have greater longevity with a broader
pool of instability across that part of the state east of the
aforementioned central Oklahoma cold pool. Flash flooding will be
possible through 02Z/9p central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9eem0gqBZ1QQPXCa5QlbilGhP1dPvi8_YngFOhgFdyjk_j9M5f3K7H8Pgoem8aPNb755= -BW6RSihhls-cmsIBnMPoCg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...LUB...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37109630 36959488 35519453 34049465 33359645=20
32549786 32679963 33770046 34320034 34929972=20
35189882 35149795 35349757 36069754 36799728=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 212141
FFGMPD
TXZ000-220338-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0206
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
539 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of western and central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 212138Z - 220338Z

Summary...Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage over
sensitive areas from prior rainfall and terrain. Eventually,
urban areas near Austin, San Antonio, and Waco may be impacted.=20
Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, thunderstorms have
increased in intensity and coverage primarily across the Texas
Hill Country. These storms are likely responding to a couple of
changes in the thermodynamic environment: 1) heating of a moist
airmass southeast of ongoing convection, 2) recharge of mid-level
lapse rates from the EML originating over the southern Rockies,
and 3) subtle shortwave troughs aloft forcing ascent and aiding in
deep convective development. Weak low-level shear profiles
suggest that cells will continue to grow upscale into short linear
segments, but lingering boundaries from prior convection across
the region will also allow for convective mergers to occur as
well. The end result of this pattern will be continued
development of areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates over sensitive
regions from prior rainfall/wet soils, terrain, and eventually
urban surface in the Austin/San Antonio/I-35 vicinity. Given
ongoing trends, a greater likelihood of flash flooding exists,
with locally significant impacts possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7N3Zlz5LwXvP2OWRSWQUuLF_b-5pSjapIbqCSdDzSWjCC9xgy7gjbjJT2egs9tm716TJ= m5IobS1V_2a7P3881PHwdoA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32449676 31559583 29859604 28969855 29340094=20
30300207 31280174 31420055 31749905 32319814=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220546
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-221100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0207
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220545Z - 221100Z

SUMMARY...Slow, efficient warm cloud rainfall with
training/repeating profile suggest localized 2-4" totals, with a
secondary maximum near deep layer cyclone pivot and downshear axis
across S Arkansas into N Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a well defined mid-level
shortwave vorticity center across NE TX sliding northeast within
the broader southeast edge of the larger scale broad upper-level
trough. This provides deep layer DPVA and broad scale ascent with
the entrance to the upper level jet streak over the mid-MS River
Valley into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a weak surface wave
in central LA remains a bit south of a stronger 850-700mb low
along the AR/LA border, with a confluent surface to boundary layer
LLJ/warm conveyor belt surging moisture north through the MS river
and then bending back westward to the mid-level cyclone in the
TROWAL. This provides broad moisture flux convergence through the
area of concern; concurrent with bringing higher theta-E air into
the ascent region. Narrow-skinny profiles with solid surface heat
remaining provide a wedge of 500-1000 J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE
generally to the surface boundary with MUCAPE extending downstream
along the eastern branch of the TROWAL with 750-1000 J/kg into NE
MS.

The solid moisture confluence/convergence has broken out slow
moving scattered convection through portions of E LA/SW MS; with
slow motions and deeply saturated low level warm cloud processes
providing tropical shower efficiency supporting 2 to occasionally
2.5"/hr localized totals. Deep south-southwest steering to the
northeast will be slightly deflected eastward given surface backed
wind flow but given density of convective ascent pattern remains
solid will increase potential for repeating to support up to
focused 4" totals over the next few hours. Secondary maximum will
exist where 850mb flow rapidly backs from south/southwest to more southeast/east north of the boundary in the deformation zone that
generally parallels the front (though distance reduces further
east into S MS...steepening the isentropic ascent boundary). FFG
values are a tad lower within the MS River Valley (with 1hr spots
of 1-2"/hr and 3hr values of 2-3") suggesting a localize flash
flooding incident or two remains possible.

Additionally, downshear of the 850-700mb low, strong dynamic
ascent of the moisture flux into the western branch of the TROWAL;
has resulted in broad moderate rainfall, though there is very
limited instability that had not been worked over earlier this
evening. Still the dynamic strength combined with the high
moisture flux convergence should allow for increased duration for
some localized spots of 2-3"; this still may not reach higher FFG
in the area and may be more beneficial than resulting in flooding;
but the duration/efficiency could still pose localized concerns
enough to be included in the MPD area of concern through the
overnight period. All in all,

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6l8mB3m1mE34re-D5fPCgZzWvEit8IqqEwkaaV17iTCTz5h3r-pYqvgVLYQ0kZfErjPx= QmZ6MJgCbbIoHH5p70ZPYv0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35138857 34738816 33868836 31688996 30979054=20
30359136 30359208 30819238 32139206 32759223=20
32859272 33229319 33849303 34289215 34709105=20
35018966=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220827
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0208
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Mississippi and Alabama...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220830Z - 221230Z

SUMMARY...Effectively stationary/back-building Gulf streamers may
result in localized very high totals and rapid inundation flooding
remains possible through early morning.

DISCUSSION...08z surface analysis, RAP analysis and sea-surface
state from satellite, denote a core enhanced pocket of higher
theta-E near surface pool resulting in near surface Tds in the
upper 70s east of 90E from the coasts of MS/AL southward for a few
hundred miles, generally within a area of confluent surface to
850mb flow as return south-easterlies around the N FL ridging
turns northward to intersect the south to southwesterly veered
flow influenced from the approaching deeper layer trough across
the Plains. While the core of the warm conveyor belt appears to
be shifted to the west responding from the approaching
height-falls; the surface regime is coming together near the
frictional convergence zone of the near shore/beaches. The core
of the SBCAPE axis of 4000-4500 J/kg is nosed to the MS beaches as
well. As such, confluent Gulf streamers have lead to early
morning convection focused on Mobile Bay and lingering affects of
the pre-frontal trof convection that dominated the Pearl River
Region yesterday.=20

While shallow, the deep layer flow is favorably oriented to
maintain the frictional convergence to support back-building that
will help to repeat in this localized focused axes. Total PWats
of 2", mainly loaded below 850mb (as noted in CIRA LPW above) with
values around 1" should allow for deep warm-cloud rainfall
generation processes and rain rates of 2.5"/hr. Already spots
have seen greater than 2.5" and an additional hour or so will
quickly result in rapid inundation. Proximity to urban centers
along the beach and I-10 would be at greatest potential for these
localize rapid inundation flooding events.=20

Hi-Res CAMs suggest, a slight disruption to the surface flow to
veer and reduce convergence at the surface shifting back west, but
with time, the core of the Warm Conveyor Belt will also shift,
especially given the instability axis remains upstream. So
additional thunderstorm activity is probable and may maintain risk
for localized inundation flooding through dusk.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5jt0nmx25bssA4QeIByEpASVgzJN1n2i8u4j7b7aXmhq1PPgUp4GNKhfv772pqBiSVk0= PrXDR3J5Wa8uzv9PxXayAEE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31928789 31768733 31438714 31058717 30628740=20
30248771 30158788 30168851 30228948 30918911=20
31268888 31818829=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220929
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-221400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0209
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
528 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma... Adj SE KS....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220930Z - 221400Z

SUMMARY...Mid-level convergence in TROWAL resulting in very slow moving/stationary elevated cells with 1.5"/hr rates. Localized
totals of 2" already with additional 1-2" possible may continue in
localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Interesting deep layer dynamics environment with
moisture entrapment and weak instability to result in a narrow
band of heavy rainfall across eastern Oklahoma. GOES-E WV suite
depicts an elongated vorticity/shortwave center over Texarkana
moving northeastward with solid broad entrance region divergence
across E OK and AR and through the Ozark Plateau. RAP analysis
and VWP shows the western branch of the TROWAL is snaking from the
main LLJ over the MS river Valley, ascending over the front
westward through central AR before reaching an 850-700 convergence
boundary veering more north to south to enter the jet streak
aloft. CIRA LPW shows the enhanced core along this path with
total PWat values of 1.75" at in SE OK reducing to 1.5" toward SE
KS. Modest mid-level lapse rates support 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE
through the 800-600mb layer and given moisture flux convergence
maximized at the base of that layer, convection has been weak but
sufficient for modest rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr.=20

The slow/reducing forward propagation/deep layer steering has
further enhanced localized flash flooding potential given
increased residency time. Combine this with an axis of reduced
FFG values across the area of concern (especially in Tulsa Metro
area but even as far south as Pittsburg county) being about
1.5-2"/hr and generally less than 2.5"/3hrs; localized exceedance
remains possible through the late overnight period.=20

Eventually, winds further slacken as the DPVA from the shortwave
lifts further northeast into central AR and helps to sever the
remaining TROWAL; winds veer further to the west and should result
in a more widely scattered ascent pattern before weakening into
the early morning hours. Spots of 2"+ have already fallen across
the Pittsburg to Nowata county line with more scattered isolated
cells further south. MRMS Flash responses of greater than 400-600
cfs/sqmi have been noted in a few spots, especially in the urban
center near Tulsa. With an additional 1-2" totals, spots of
2-3.5" are probable and localized flash flooding will continue to
be possible through 13-14z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4mlU_8DMbMaEU2XsJSjLePocjxD_pRnGR6SO06SQWe3eQhtO3n8hm22wTUZigLMwWVit= nxLT3KZVXZutqUwPIER0ZAc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37269558 37019512 36279519 35549510 35229492=20
34869488 34639496 34479544 34769607 35559637=20
36469634 36959606=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221520
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-222115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0210
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...Southeast MS...Southwest to Central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221518Z - 222115Z

SUMMARY...Locally backbuilding and training convection are
expected to pose an increasing flash flood threat through the
afternoon. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour are expected, with
localized totals of 4 to 6 inches possible by mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The regional environment is becoming increasingly
favorable for high-efficiency rainfall production. A 30 to 35 kt
southwesterly low-level jet is providing robust moisture transport
and low-level convergence along a quasi-stationary surface trough
situated from southeast MS through west-central AL. Precipitable
water values are currently pooling between 1.75 and 2.0 inches,
which is generally near or above the 90th percentile of
climatology for late May.

The 12Z morning KBMX sounding and recent RAP analysis confirm a
tropical-like thermodynamic profile with a deep warm cloud layer
exceeding 12,000 ft. This environment will support efficient
warm-rain physical processes, allowing convective cores to sustain
potentially extreme rainfall rates even with moderate instability.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg are nosing up along and just
east of the surface trough axis, and will support not only the
high rates, but also a general expansion of convection over the
next few hours as shortwave energy arrives from the southwest.
This will generally involve southeast MS through portions of
central and southwest AL for the main threat area.

Kinematically, the environment is primed for convective training.
Corfidi propagation vectors are largely offsetting the mean
steering flow, suggesting that cell development will tend to favor
at some backbuilding along and just ahead of the low-level
convergence axis. Hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches are
expected within the most persistent cores.

The antecedent conditions are generally rather moist based off the
latest NASA SPoRT-LIS soil moisture analysis, and the latest USGS
streamflow data shows somewhat elevated baseflows from recent
precipitation. These antecedent conditions will lead to high
runoff efficiency and potential rapid responses in small creeks
and urban drainage systems.

The latest hires CAM guidance suggests some localized rainfall
totals reaching 4 to 6 inches by mid-afternoon, and this will
likely result in some ares of flash flooding which may be locally
enhanced over the more sensitive urban corridors.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Yb6DLWS_OSuo2U9mN0tNWik0R_qkLixek2AhTT-J5G6Vs2mToBqlpN6Sv2heFvQPl_x= JLpGBnTgAfBzmnm2cofKwWw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33978649 33148629 31888665 30638735 30208792=20
30188888 30668911 32488827 33488790 33968734=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221840
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0211
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Northern AL and Middle TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221839Z - 222300Z

SUMMARY...Northward-moving convection will pose a localized flash
flood threat through the afternoon and early evening. Rainfall
rates of 1.0 to 1.5 inch/hour are expected, with localized totals
of 2 to 3 inches possible where training occurs.

DISCUSSION...Convection currently over central Alabama is expected
to continue lifting north-northeastward into an environment
characterized by PWAT values of 1.6 to 1.8 inches and moderate
instability with MLCAPE values of near 1500 J/kg. While the
overall thermodynamic environment is less efficient than areas to
the south, a 30 kt low-level jet will continue to provide
sufficient moisture transport to support locally heavy rain rates.

The primary concern is the potential for localized cell-training
or backbuilding along the nose of the low-level jet. While
individual cells will be somewhat progressive, Corfidi vectors
suggest a component of the flow may allow for repeated rounds of
heavy rain over the same basins. Recent model guidance, including
the REFS ensemble, indicates a 20 to 30 percent probability of
exceeding flash flood guidance in localized areas, with some 2 to
3 inch rainfall totals possible by early this evening.

Given that soils are fairly moist across at least portions of
northern AL and middle TN, the rainfall over the next few hours
should favor at least an isolated threat for flash flooding. This
will tend to be mainly an urban threat, but with some of the
elevated terrain across the region, there may be some locally
enhanced and channeled runoff potential for some of the small
stream basins where any cell-training occurs.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5YJ7loOgBZcnIQxZOAUAtqGMVNQChjqtRYJVgkUMaZ09tsj4WCWqxhw5pLeMgMvbxuid= XgFZ3QIlR8_RTBfGQq2AmO8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35608577 35518554 35228545 34698560 34228584=20
34008621 33938653 34068678 34598678 35318646=20
35528615=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222024
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-230222-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0212
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana, southeastern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 222022Z - 230222Z

Summary...Areas of thunderstorms continue to expand in coverage
and intensity across the discussion area. Rain rates are likely
to cause flash flood issues on at least an isolated basis.

Discussion...Deep convection has intensified and expanded in
coverage over the past hour - especially across southeastern
Louisiana and southeastern Mississippi. The storms are in a very
unstable airmass (80s F surface temps/mid-70s F dewpoints
supporting 2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Meanwhile, broadly confluent,
southwesterly low-level flow and weak inhibition was supporting
updrafts. Convection was oriented parallel to southwesterly
steering flow aloft, supporting localized training. Areas of
1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates were noted per MRMS imagery recently.

The storms were migrating over areas of relatively low FFG from
prior rainfall (approx 2 inch/hr thresholds in spots across SE
LA/SE MS, locally lower in southern AL). As cells migrate over
these regions of abundantly moist soils (and urban population
centers like New Orleans and Mobile), some risk of flash flooding
will likely arise. Convection (and flash flood risk) is likely to
be diurnally driven and weaken some shortly after sunset. The
eastern extent of flash flood risk from SE LA/SE MS convection is
in question, with widespread convective overturning across
portions of south-central Alabama has lessened instability values
there, and convection may struggle to be maintained with
northeastern extent. Portions of the Mobile, AL area may recover
from prior convective overturning and experience a renewed
thunderstorm/flash flood threat, however.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-eBMlkL1UBVI8zSV158CTwx2SMG9yBw5ckwsdbROPe7b0c9EUz-UaY1if5TtjMkdbrXm= 8fyw8xODLGeIAl_jXSvu_g4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32158672 32108561 30678610 30118715 29688992=20
29369046 29679156 30029176 30619173 31339010=20
31908888=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222249
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-230447-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0213
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
648 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of Kentucky into southern Ohio and
western West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 222247Z - 230447Z

Summary...Scattered convection with embedded heavier rainfall will
continue to spread northward toward the middle/upper Ohio Valley
this evening. Moist ground conditions from antecedent rainfall
will raise the flash flood risk in a few areas.

Discussion...Scattered, deep convection continues along a general
axis extending from near Hopkinsville east-northeastward to near
Covington. These cells also happened to be collocated with a weak
warm front through that same aforementioned axis. Along and south
of the boundary, 70s F dewpoints were maintaining 1000-1500 J/kg
SBCAPE, fueling heavier convective elements and spots of 1 inch/hr
rain rates. A broad, negative-tilt mid-level trough over the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and stout low-level flow across
Kentucky/Tennessee was also providing ascent to support ongoing
convection.

This overall regime will gradually translate east-northeastward
over the next 3-6 hours. Areas of heavier rain will fall on
moistening soils that are gradually becoming more sensitive by the
hour due to abundant rainfall. FFG thresholds are around 1
inch/hr in most of Kentucky, but fall to around 0.5 inch/hr in
northeastern Kentucky into southern Ohio and western West
Virginia. As embedded convective elements reach these
water-logged areas, flash flood potential will increase. This
threat will exist through at least 02Z, with little indication
that rainfall rates will decrease after sunset.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!79d-Wj68ojWqCrsF2yZFQ9Wp4LOVbIFTpCrrFnY29cx7R9rwOHsyfzU0_zbHVPQjFPfS= RSRRU7RfQF_QvnaOf2138HI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PAH...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40148277 39948082 38988042 38008173 37148259=20
36508336 36738469 36748661 36658801 37538804=20
38218691 39378497=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230055
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-230453-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0214
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...northern Louisiana into central Mississippi and
far northeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230053Z - 230453Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms were developing along a
confluence zone over the Mississippi Delta and adjacent northern
Louisiana. 1-2 inch/hr rain rates were estimated. These rates
will pose a flash flood risk for a few hours this evening.

Discussion...Persistent convergence along a confluence zone
extending from near Shreveport to near Monroe to near Rolling Fork
in southern portions of the Mississippi Delta. This confluence
zone was oriented parallel to west-southwesterly flow aloft,
supporting local cell training. In addition, abundant surface
heating along and south of this zone has enabled MLCAPE values to
exceed 2000 J/kg amid ~1.75 inch PW values. These thermodynamic
fields were enabling rain rates to reach 1-2.5 inch/hr in a few
spots. The highest rain rates were threatening FFG thresholds,
which generally range from around 1 inch/hr in MS to 2.5 inch/hr
in northern Louisiana.=20

Current trends suggest that most of the ongoing flash flood
potential will be diurnally driven, with a possible weakening
trend beginning after a few hours with loss of
heating/destabilization. Flash flooding will still remain
possible through at least 04Z/11p central given the favorable
thermodynamic environment supporting deep convection with
efficient rain rates. Flash flooding is possible - with
particular concern in low-lying spots and across central
Mississippi where ground conditions remain moist from prior
rainfall.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-bQo8_XKZHJ9aXvQz09CnEA9cf51h-P3yWBCIEcftfiA4QbNEtbDUbqQEfOtu9-YFbBi= 3WG0LA_iirluOe5cz512ON0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34179016 33888932 32858903 32028984 31669202=20
31709464 32689489 33109381 33279199 33919108=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231336
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-231935-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0215
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
935 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern TX...Central and Southern LA...Far
Southwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 231335Z - 231935Z

SUMMARY...Expanding areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms, with
some localized cell-training will result in an increasing flash
flood threat through the mid-afternoon hours. Rainfall rates of 2
to 3 inches/hour are expected, with localized totals of 3 to 5
inches possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E satellite imagery and radar shows some small
scale MCS activity over far eastern TX along with an embedded MCV
that will be moving east into areas of western LA over the next
few hours. The latest surface data suggests a surface
trough/outflow boundary near the southern LA coast that extends
west-southwest back toward the Upper TX coast.

Meanwhile, the airmass is moderately buoyant with a nose of MLCAPE
values reaching 1500 to 2000+ J/kg across far eastern TX and
across much of western LA in association with modest, but
persistent southerly flow off the Gulf ahead of the upstream
convection. Moisture is heavily entrenched through the column
based off the latest OSPO ALPW data, with PWs overall running up
to near 1.75 inches.

The approaching convection and associated MCV energy is expected
to interact with this surface trough near the Gulf Coast, and
favor a general increase in warm air advection/isentropic ascent
that coupled with the nose of instability should favor an increase
in the coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms. The latest
Corfidi vector analysis suggests at least some low-end threat for
backbuilding and training convection over the next several hours
as the convection increases across areas of central and southern
LA, and perhaps areas as far northeast as southwest MS.

High rainfall rates are expected that could reach 2 to 3
inches/hour with the stronger convective cores, and with any
cell-training, some localized storm totals going through early to
mid-afternoon could reach 3 to 5 inches. FFG is rather high across
the region overall, with moderate soil moisture (50 to 70 percent)
in the 0-10cm layer according to NASA SPoRT. However, with the
high rainfall rates and localized storm total potential, some
areas of flash flooding will tend to become likely over the next
several hours. This will especially be the case for the more
sensitive urban corridors.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-KQi3ZJNBFp2ejl5zDgZ2Jg7lR7tsfOr4FlcsN_tTCGKaKRIQE-FwBdhxhX2E3MwlWqg= Q56Fw7SOnkxhKJuE7DStGmM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31979285 31679154 31059027 30288969 29688969=20
29369007 29269094 29589253 29629308 29789379=20
30719441 31249432 31819377=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231532
FFGMPD
TXZ000-232130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0216
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1130 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231530Z - 232130Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will result in a regional threat for scattered areas of mainly
urban flash flooding going into the afternoon hours. Rainfall
rates as high as 2.5 inches/hour are likely, with localized totals
of 3 to 5 inches possible.

DISCUSSION...An ejecting shortwave trough/MCV crossing the Lower
Rio Grande Valley will be interacting with a moist and strongly
unstable airmass pooled along a surface trough currently situated
across areas of south-central to southeast TX and extending
offshore across the western Gulf. The approaching energy is
already driving multiple clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms across south-central TX, with a generally
progressive character off to the east.

MLCAPE values across south-central TX are on the order of 2500 to
3500 J/kg with PWs locally up around 1.75 inches. This coupled
with the forcing associated with the approaching shortwave
dynamics will facilitate rainfall rates as high as 2.5 inches/hour
over the next several hours as convection becomes increasingly
concentrated in close proximity to the aforementioned trough axis.

A general increase in the coverage of convection is expected going
into the afternoon hours across coastal areas of south-central to
southeast TX, including multiple metropolitan areas such as
Victoria and Houston. There will be some occasional instances
where the convection may repeat or train over the same area which
would drive heavier rainfall totals. The 12Z HREF/REFS suites
suggest some localized 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals going through
mid-afternoon.

Given the overall antecedent environment and expectations of
rainfall over the next few hours, there will be a threat for
scattered areas of mainly urban flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67tA2NnIsFCry5e7BmZ0XHM7XyUu3NYCaXM_7jr8-HPEQZiDiJ_vTrTxJBhO6VV1jkKR= 7nL6goKHbEJ3aW-k7ebGSFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30549440 29729390 28989499 28009653 27239714=20
26939766 27219814 27969832 28829814 29599742=20
30159643 30459547=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231701
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-232300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0217
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
100 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231700Z - 232300Z

SUMMARY...Wet antecedent conditions and additional showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon may produce a localized threat of
flash flooding this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E satellite imagery along with
surface data shows an area of low pressure associated with an
upper trough across northwest OH. A trailing cold extends well to
the southwest of this with a warm front that is situated over
northern OH and down the west side of the Appalachians. A moist
and confluent low-level southwest flow pattern ahead of the cold
front is nosing up across much of central and eastern KY through
far western WV and eastern OH.

Warm sector MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg and PWs of 1.5 to
1.75 inches are already in place generally from southern OH
through eastern KY, and this instability axis will lift a bit
farther north this afternoon as southwest flow ahead of the front
persists. Additionally, the latest visible satellite images show a
fair amount of solar insolation taking place across these areas,
and this is expected to yield a destabilizing boundary layer that
will couple with modest low-level forcing/convergence for
scattered bands of showers and thunderstorms over the next several
hours.

The mean layer flow is strongly unidirectional as seen on the 12Z
upper-air RAOB from KILN, and this will suggest a concern for some
localized training of these bands of convection. Already there is
one linear band of convection extending from southern OH into
north-central KY that has had a history of producing 1 to 2
inch/hour rainfall rates, and these high rates should be
sustainable this afternoon with the addition of more surface heating/instability.

The latest hires CAMS may be slightly underdone with the
convective threat and the overall QPF footprint this afternoon
considering the training potential. Given the rates and training considerations, some localized 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals will be
possible. The antecedent conditions are rather wet, and this
coupled with the additional rainfall potential may support some
localized areas of flash flooding this afternoon.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!71-1H9gosDQS7QWA22Ig2vHwXXspPL-ipWp4cf75PDtajGxyot6U94zt82aqcLLd8RXr= wkBrTuw9zAOXHJHtejK6zkI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41218183 41148115 40618058 39278102 38118192=20
37028306 36428420 36508513 36968551 37598527=20
38248439 38978374 39828308 40888251=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231753
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-232345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0218
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
152 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...Southeast AR...Central and Southern
MS...West-Central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231752Z - 232345Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible this afternoon and early this evening from showers and
thunderstorms with high rainfall rates capable of reaching 2 to 3
inches/hour.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a cold-topped MCS
and embedded MCV continuing to advance east across central LA with
recent radar trends showing downstream convective development
across areas of southeast AR through central and southern MS. This
energy will be interacting over the next several hours with a
strongly unstable and moist environment characterized by MLCAPE
values of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg and PWs over 1.75 inches.

There is evidence of a surface trough across south-central MS
which recently seems to be facilitating some of the development
and expansion of convection across this region. The latest HRRR
and RRFS guidance suggests rainfall coverage increasing over the
next few hours as the upstream energy with the MCV approaches, and
there is likely to be areas of relatively concentrated convection
by later this afternoon that will be capable of producing very
high rainfall rates. Given the thermodynamic environment, there
will be some rainfall rates likely reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour.

The high rates and relatively concentrated nature of the
convection may support some rainfall totals that reach 3 to 4+
inches by early this evening. Recent rainfall across portions of
the region have allowed for the antecedent environment to become
more sensitive, with increasing soil moisture concentrations. As
such, the additional rainfall this afternoon may favor a concern
for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding. This would also
include concerns for some of the more sensitive urban areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-xFujvhWvvLzNFZ1UlbBP_b4zFp39b1trxk9DdKvh_l8QF6cBvQ4UvK2w3qdnzoWc3NP= WYce8OlhfKTX9TbjcWsXkmo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LZK...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34119119 33279025 33098908 32808816 32478781=20
31938776 31568825 31398904 31459029 31749128=20
32279185 32659211 33599235 34109210=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231852
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-232345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0219
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Georgia through North-Central South
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231849Z - 232345Z

SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms, with some localized cell-training
bring an increasing flash flood threat rest of the afternoon from
northeastern Georgia through north-central South Carolina.
Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected, with localized
totals of 3 inches possible over already saturated ground.

DISCUSSION...Moist/unstable air flowing into the cold air damming
wedge front over northeastern Georgia. This front is providing a
focus for thunderstorm development generally west from Augusta.
Southerly low level flow with effective shear of 25 to 30kt is
allowing redevelopment along/beyond this front with SBCAPE of 2500
J/kg and PW of 1.9" allowing hourly rainfall of 1.5 inches/hour in
spots. The cold wedge front has been receding north which brings
the focus into the area that saw 2-5" rainfall last evening. FFG
of 1 to 1.5 inches/hour is along the current frontal location from
GA to the flash flood sensitive Columbia, SC.

Continued heavy rain over this already saturated area should cause
localized flash flooding into this evening. Instability decreases
rapidly north of the front keeping areas such as Greenville, SC
away from the heavy rain at least for the next several hours.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9RyitIh4Q531mORIBqfHAg4s-K5xQ0fAwBaQdryk86pCizdxhuOqrhyPtZa-Sj2OpHoi= mAnZCOHKxG2jkKUwsj1MzO8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34828348 34748305 34658266 34478215 34578138=20
34508044 33988084 33758132 33478194 33418220=20
33448252 33608292 33918330 34488351=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232032
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-240130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0220
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Missouri into Kansas and Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232030Z - 240130Z

SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms repeating near a frontal boundary,
bring an increasing flash flood threat into this evening over
southwest Missouri into Kansas and Arkansas. Rainfall rates up to
2 inches/hour are expected, with localized totals of 3 inches.

DISCUSSION...An MCV over northeast OK is riding along a stalling
frontal boundary over far southeast KS into central MO. The warm
sector activity extends from northwest AR up to west-central MO.
Sufficient moisture with PW of 1.5" and instability with SBCAPE of
1500 J/kg will continue to allow heavy thunderstorm development
rest of the afternoon. Light shear over the area causes slow storm
motion while southerly low level flow recharges the environment
through the frontal convergence. FFG is generally around 1.5
inches/hour which has been observed the past hour over southwest
MO. SWly jet level flow will continue to push the MCV along the
front and maintain heavy rain ahead of it into the evening.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs do not handle the MCV well and result in
too dispersive QPF into the evening. Given radar trends and the
moist/unstable environment, localized flash flooding can be
expected into the evening hours in areas with lower FFG, urbanized
areas, and in the highest precip totals. The activity should
eventually progress east, so further discussions may be warranted
into the overnight hours.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-TfOJddi27ltmW5likwsam9bAO2tNIfqIk9VWDQNuV_g7ndjfLDdWo1yvtj6xwMHSTaU= oOSfMd3JLA0U0O0XA3Kqats$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39009285 38669251 36609311 36119357 36589439=20
37069474 37219544 37469539 37829483 38579382=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240018
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-240530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0221
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240016Z - 240530Z

SUMMARY...Saturated soils and additional prefrontal thunderstorms
this evening should continue to produced localized flash flooding
over the Upper Ohio Valley into the overnight.

DISCUSSION...A plume of moisture extends north up the west side of
the Appalachians and the Upper Ohio Valley west of the cold air
damming west on the east side of the Appalachians and ahead of a
cold front over northern Ohio. A moist and confluent southwesterly
low-level flow through this plume is providing 1.6" PW which is 2
standard deviations above normal over southeast OH, western WV,
into far western PA.

Warm sector MLCAPE values of 1000 J/kg and the abundant moisture
will continue to support scattered bands of heavy thunderstorms
through the evening. Deep layer unidirectional SWly flow persists
over this region which should maintain localized training of these
bands of convection. Hourly rainfall up to 1.5 to 2" is likely to
continue in training activity which is in agreement with recent
HRRR/RRFS runs. The antecedent conditions are rather wet with
flash flood guidance generally 1" or less. Therefore localized
flash flooding can be expected into the overnight. Late night
nocturnal trends may preclude the need for further discussion in
this area overnight, though that will continue to be monitored.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_qTo1ziUydoIoJLKNj985gDznN4aCtucEOni6CUIa39iu4qt7sOyXV8xjsIpWMs9OhT7= z1bgPrqXS64u2i5xlZniOj4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40638122 40428064 39978035 38938106 38068215=20
37668342 38328420 39048362 39898219=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240125
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-240630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0222
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
924 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas affected...Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240123Z - 240630Z

SUMMARY...Heavy prefrontal thunderstorms repeating into the
overnight maintain a localized flash flood threat over southern
and northern Arkansas. Rainfall rates up to 2 inches/hour are
expected, with localized totals of 3 inches.

DISCUSSION...Outflow from earlier activity is maintaining
convergence from southerly flow and renewed growth over northwest
AR into southeastern MO. Sufficient moisture with PW of 1.5" and
instability with MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg will continue to allow heavy
thunderstorm development into the overnight. Light shear over the
area causes slow storm motion while southerly low level flow
recharges the environment through the frontal convergence. FFG is
generally higher, around 2.5 inches/hour despite this being the
flood prone Ozarks.

Recent HRRR runs have a decent handly on this ongoing activity
while the RRFS is underdoing it. Given radar trends and the
moist/unstable environment, localized flash flooding can be
expected into or through the overnight hours where highest precip
totals occur.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9gQcWATB0duFocmJ93-PRp-o5AafAvFLlEM13Zxlu3UW1dJ5hY5uYQkM3N6x6okcHSFZ= B1Y7DqnmBssIveydCnLEjmU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37989132 37569065 36309042 35409209 35339412=20
35899423 36369341 36859254 37359213 37909200=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240651
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-241200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0223
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...Southeast LA...Coastal MS & AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240650Z - 241200Z

SUMMARY...Strong MCV with WAA training profiles increasing
residency and therefore overall totals to allow for rapid
inundation flooding.

DISCUSSION...KHDC shows a very mature MCV with a tight inner
convective core as well as a leading forward propagating leading
band moving through the mouth of the Mississippi River and through
the Chandeluer Islands. The strong outflow and localized pressure
falls continues to support rapidly backed low-level inflow over
the area of the north central Gulf that has remained over 80
degrees and therefore increasing downstream theta-E advection and
moisture flux.=20

The latent heat release and favorable outflow orientation to a
great outflow channel into the right entrance of the 80-90kt speed
max continues to maintain and actually recently strengthen the
MCC/MCV. RAP analysis and local observations show the downshear
WAA off the Central Gulf has increased deep layer moisture to near
2"/hr but also has pulled the instability gradient across the
Chandeleur to central MS Coast and into south-central AL with
MLCAPEs over 1500 J/kg along and downstream. This all has
sharpened the effective warm front/deformation zone increasing low
level isentropic ascent/moisture convergence along and ahead of
the dense central core. Rates of 2-2.5"/hr are likely given the
strength of the flux convergence and upward vigor of updrafts over
the next few hours. As the convection continues to expand along
the warm front, training/repeating will increase to support
increased residency for localized 2-4" totals, with and isolated
5" total possible in the 2-3 hours as it the band/core passes.=20

The limiting factors will be placement relative to the land, with
the core likely to remain SE of NOLA proper, but given deep layer
steering look to come along the MS coastal area into S Alabama,
where recent very high rainfall totals over the last 2 days or so
have saturated the upper soils. FFG values have recovered, but
given 0-40cm soil ratios, across portions of the MPD and overall
rates of warm cloud tropical rainfall could result in rapid
inundation flooding through the late overnight period and early
morning.=20=20

There is some uncertainty for trailing redevelopment South of SE
LA, where confluent rear-inflow streamers could reform. About
half of Hi-Res CAM suite suggests this redevelopment may persist,
though environment may take too long to recover to have higher
confidence, but the risk does remain.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5WIMBt4M39pYQ2L9f9XMTzG-N_06pU65Cs6ECrcP_0u-YolHoT7wpFM9glweOGgrCsbs= -yb5i67558CstYHz17P4vkk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31998811 31638766 31038759 30148821 29078933=20
29079008 29639038 30648984 31288947 31908895=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241709
FFGMPD
PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-242305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0225
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
108 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kentucky...Southern and
Eastern Ohio...Central and Western West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241708Z - 242305Z

SUMMARY...Convective coverage and intensity will gradually
increase and expand eastward through late this afternoon ahead of
an approaching MCV. Hourly rainfall rates of 1.0 to 1.5+ inches
overlapping with highly sensitive soils will make scattered areas
of flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and visible satellite imagery early
this afternoon depict an expanding area of efficient showers and
deepening convective clouds advancing downstream from an MCV
currently migrating out of western Kentucky. While morning
activity was generally subdued, continued diurnal heating is
actively destabilizing the boundary layer across a broader
footprint. This increasing instability is fostering an expansion
of convective coverage and updraft intensity that will track
eastward across central/eastern Kentucky, southern/eastern Ohio,
and into central/western West Virginia over the next several hours.

The 12Z high-resolution guidance suite (including the HREF and
REFS) shows neighborhood probabilities for 1 inch/hr rainfall
rates increasing toward 30-50% across the region, with a notable
uptick in signal pushing into central and western West Virginia by
late afternoon. Furthermore, the deep-layer mean steering
flow?oriented southwest to northeast?will parallel the initiating
boundaries, strongly favoring cell training. The latest CAM
consensus points toward localized rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches.

The primary driver for the flash flood threat remains the low land
surface capacity across this entire region. Recent soil moisture
data and RFC Flash Flood Guidance indicate that the basins across
the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachian foothills of West
Virginia are already sensitive. The 12Z HREF/REFS blend shows a
robust and expanding 30-50% probability of exceeding these low
3-hour FFG thresholds. Given the antecedent conditions and
potential for training convection, any 1.0-1.5"+/hr rates will
drive runoff concerns, and likely overwhelming some small streams,
creeks, and low-lying infrastructure. Therefore, scattered areas
of flash flooding are generally likely this afternoon.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8wmf-1b4SO41LV9d8--fOutJehNOzV4EU5Du1lyJ4ba5kDdijOKgld-gB06nRVHlNRXt= 8hN6eftIqVYMWyIFKZC_w90$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41218178 41208087 40818047 40058038 39258035=20
38288059 37358159 36998231 36558393 36558497=20
36678542 37358529 37958574 38488562 39158465=20
39708363 40608255=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241619
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-242215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0224
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1217 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...Central to Northeast Alabama...Northwest
Georgia...Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241617Z - 242215Z

SUMMARY...Convective coverage and intensity will continue to
expand early this afternoon as an MCV lifts northeastward.
Rainfall rates of 1-2+ inch/hr, with localized maximum totals of
2-4 inches, will make scattered areas of flash flooding likely
this afternoon given the moist antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery depict an
expanding area of convection across central and northern Alabama,
driven by a well-defined MCV and associated mid-level shortwave
lifting northeastward. A coupled pocket of 850mb convergence and
250mb divergence is providing robust synoptic lift. Concurrently,
diurnal heating has actively destabilized the boundary layer,
allowing MUCAPE values to surge into the 1000-2000 J/kg range.
Combined with PWATs pooling between 1.7 and 1.9 inches, the
environment is primed to support highly efficient convection with
high rainfall rates.

High-resolution guidance is in strong agreement regarding the
evolution and intensity of the afternoon convection. The 12Z HREF
highlights 50-70+ percent neighborhood probabilities for 1 inch/hr
rainfall rates across the region, with 20-30+ percent
probabilities for rates exceeding 2 inch/hr. The latest HRRR
guidance corroborates this intensity, suggesting localized total
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through the afternoon as the
convective footprint expands from into northeast Alabama, middle
Tennessee, and eventually farther east with areas of northwest
Georgia seeing a threat.

The combination of high-end rainfall rates and expanding coverage
will pose a flash flood threat. The 12Z HREF shows 40-50 percent
probabilities for exceeding 3-hour Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)
across the targeted area. The intersection of 2+ in/hr rates with
the sloped terrain of the Cumberland Plateau and the more
sensitive urban corridors will lead to potentially more enhanced
runoff concerns, and thus overwhelming local drainage systems and
small streams. Overall, scattered areas of flash flooding are
likely across the region over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6nkighx3wfEaDfsRHYQ0MhHTbyp29_-ejb0xkuaYufEx4KbxZpsH8vZ_hA8tHPdKgJQC= NcV3s8kz7dqvcNxHQg_s_JI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36468476 35738436 34498476 33188559 32538648=20
32458709 32918767 33688768 34738719 35588649=20
36328568=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242026
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-250130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0226
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...Southern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242024Z - 250130Z

SUMMARY...Repeating thunderstorms bring isolated flash flood
threat to southern/central Georgia into the evening. Rainfall
rates of 2-3 inch/hr will continue with localized maximum totals
of 3-5 inches for this area which is not flood prone.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery depict an
east-west oriented line of scattered heavy thunderstorms
developing on low level convergence over southern Georgia with
further upstream development in far north Florida. Instability is
robust with SBCAPE of 3000 J/kg and moisture is extreme with 2.2
inch PW (2.5 sigma above normal) supporting highly efficient
convection with high rainfall rates of up to 3 inches/hr.

Recent hRRR and RRFS runs are on the lighter side for rainfall
compared to radar estimates. Fair rates of northward movement will
continue with SSWly deep layer mean flow generally around 20kt.
However, the additional upstream development and cell interactions
make a concern for localized maxima of a quick 3-5 inches of
rainfall in the coming few hours which would exceed the general
flash flood guidance near 3 inch/hr. This activity will continue
moving north and could bring concerns this evening to more
sensitive areas such as Atlanta and areas of northeast GA into SC
which have seen more rain in recent days due to the persistent
cool air damming.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!73FTkC8m3598p8gBqwfzYyI6uf2NojWFSmkB9fund5L1uUQr5HyXr55Be9nysJZEbyNF= f2-dFCqIYmHWYyMB6looUog$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33088432 32998344 32688250 31878236 31108254=20
30458283 30348394 30698518 31418572 31938558=20
32568537 32848500=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242102
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-250200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0227
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...Dallas-Forth Worth Metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242100Z - 250200Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding over the greater Dallas-Fort
Worth metro into this evening from slow moving heavy thunderstorms
producing up to 4" rainfall.

DISCUSSION...As of 21Z...thunderstorm clusters north of Ft. Worth
and southeast of Dallas have developed in a moist/unstable
environment. Instability is typical for North Texas summertime
convection with SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg as is moisture with PW
around 1.5" and dew points in the upper 60s. Light flow will
continue to allow slow movement and popcorn type convection
developing off outflow boundaries. Rainfall rates up to 2"/hr
estimated by KFWS in the past hour should generally hold true for
subsequent convection through the evening. There is a risk for
some repeating convection/cell mergers which could allow localized
4" totals which would be a concern for flash flooding, especially
in the broad urbanized areas of the metro.

Recent HRRR runs are underestimating the ongoing activity and
generally underplay the heavy rainfall threat for this metro area
into this evening. Hail is a concern with this activity, but
enough rainfall should occur to cause localized flash flood
concerns into the evening. Further thunderstorm development to the
south may warrant additional discussions in Texas through this
evening.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8-WaSVXFsd4dfERNS-1ssz10PzDgVEXMLkl2Kf2TtZtIl6kWR1Sz5COVFouQlCK-FWk6= -RIq4BmaA1BeQgIfgvR3w9w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33869791 33819644 33449506 32469498 31939579=20
32039707 32369854 33489887=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242222
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-250330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0228
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
621 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...North Georgia into South Carolina and Southern
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242218Z - 250330Z

SUMMARY...Widespread convection with embedded high intensity
rainfall lift over Georgia and South Carolina this evening.
Additional convection over eastern Tennessee will also continue
ahead of an MCV lifting past Chattanooga. Rain rates of 2"/hr with
localized maximum totals of 2-4 inches will make scattered areas
of flash flooding likely through this evening given the moist
antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...As of 22Z...an MCV is moving over Chattanooga while
scattered heavy convection is over the Atlanta metro east into
South Carolina with an organized line of convection lifting from
southern Georgia. This area has upper support from increasing
right entrance jet dynamics over the eastern TN Valley and low
level support in the form of topographic lift in the southern
Appalachians as well as a remnant cool air damming wedge over the
upland area of SC into northeast GA. Ample instability is present
with 2500 J/kg SBCAPE over the GA/SC border and generally 1500
J/kg elsewhere. A pool of 2.2" PW air is lifting north from
southern GA while the 2" PW contour currently reaches Atlanta per
the 22Z RAP mesoanalysis. Ongoing activity in northern Atlanta
combined with the progress of southern GA activity warrants
including Atlanta in this discussion area. The environment in the
discussion area supports highly efficient convection with high
rainfall rates.

As is the recent trend, HRRR runs this afternoon are underdoing
current activity, while the RRFS has maxes that are too hot in GA,
but also too low in eastern TN per recent radar trends. Taking an
average of the two makes for a more reasonable solution with a
threat for 2-4" maxima through 03Z with 4-5" possible along the
GA/SC border area.

The combination of high-end rainfall rates and threat for
repeating activity in deep layer SSWly flow of 25kt poses a
scattered flash flood threat through the evening. The cool air
wedge has kept heavy rain from the southern Apps in recent days,
so the antecedent conditions are worse on the Piedmont/Cumberland
Plateau. There is a localized flash flood threat in the southern
Apps tonight as the wedge continues to break down and subtropical
moisture encounters orographic lift.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ZF2ReEL8Eu1gp6GVaTtshS2yuMRLUMaC6puJGAg1QdVZlLK9QgzTw1AqNN0yn5MFfSf= XljB2RnmjcEz3SujlMB2dTo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36568240 36228190 35578277 34768280 34548221=20
34608161 34768086 34528066 34028066 33118118=20
32718227 33058392 33598457 34108483 34498480=20
35498514 36548440=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242255
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-250430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0229
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
654 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 242253Z - 250430Z

SUMMARY...Repeating warm sector convection will continue to
develop and lift north-northeast through the Upper Ohio Valley and
western slopes of the Allegheny Plateau into the overnight. Hourly
rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2 inches over already saturated soils and
terrain of the western slopes will continue to allow scattered
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...As of 23Z...A cold front is over western Ohio with a
persistent warm sector ahead over the upper half of the Ohio
Valley through the western slopes of the Allegheny Plateau and
expanding across western PA. Ample moisture with a gradient of
1.7" to 1.5" PW from south to north through the outlook area and
instability with 1500 J/kg SBCAPE along with deep layer SWly flow
of 35kt is allowing heavy bands to develop oriented close to their
direction of motion. Hourly rainfall estimates of 1.5 to 2" are in
the heaviest bands which has caused localized flash flooding given
low FFG from recent rains in these areas. This activity is
shifting farther east than recent days as the cool air damming
wedge breaks down, but slope/terrain increases, making the western
slopes of the Allegheny Plateau perpetually flash flood prone.
Furthermore, an MCV currently over eastern TN will lift up along
the KY/WV border this evening and potentially through WV
overnight.

Both recent HRRR/RRFS guidance have a decent handle on ongoing
activity and the threat this evening with generally 1-3" from the
western tip of VA through WV and western PA through 04Z. Given the
wet antecedent conditions and expectation for continued training
convection, any 1.5"+/hr rates will drive runoff concerns.
Therefore, scattered areas of flash flooding are likely to
continue into the overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Ee6HDoBOGzoITdAw2tENfQr1ELj1iyLRMcvdhVag7SS5goy0Al7_aDMhG0OgDuOlpKq= Y4Qkvys0FmS5bnVhVt20-hM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41738049 41517924 40337887 39027941 37018106=20
36628195 36568323 36708410 37978340 39018265=20
40088245 40768222 41218174 41498134=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250123
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-250630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0230
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
921 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...North Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250120Z - 250630Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to develop along a trough over
the Florida Panhandle into North Florida well into the overnight.
Rain rates of 2 to locally 3"/hr will continue with the axis
nearly stationary. Localized flash flooding is possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...As of 03Z...Scattered thunderstorms continue to
develop over the FL Panhandle with a cluster of heavy
thunderstorms near Gainesville that continue to propagate
northwest. Abundant Gulf moisture and instability streaming in on
15kt southerly low level flow will continue to converge along the
trough axis. The PW is 2.2" along this trough with SBCAPE in a
tight gradient to low over southern GA (where there was earlier
organized activity) to 2500 J/kg along the FL Panhandle shore and=20
over North FL. This will continue to support activity. Earlier
heavy rain has lowered the FFG some which will allow localized
flash flooding.

Recent HRRR runs are higher in QPF than the RRFS with signs that
the Gainesville activity should work its way toward the Big Bend.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Efh_Ls21fUlXmBXpher_Wht893F0JVwkO45lEwXnqPXgVUmQ01Z217okaioHo3IGhfU= ZVvnVQmhelHrCNVlqiDCP8A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MOB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31368501 31078366 30518230 29548194 29318252=20
29748296 30138390 30158501 30318548 30638650=20
31268651=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250301
FFGMPD
TXZ000-251300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0231
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Areas affected...Central Texas....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250800Z - 251300Z

SUMMARY...Numerous very intense but narrow downdrafts capable of
2"/hr rates have limited cell motions to support focused areas of
heavy rainfall that may result in localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a very mature closed low in
the Heart of Texas toward the northeast Hill country. At 250mb,
the low is tilted from the 500mb center to the northwest to
provide solid down-shear divergence aloft and broad scale ascent.
In the low levels, proximity to the low has cyclonic convergence
but the winds are fairly light at 5-15kts at best. However,
originating convection across the Dallas/Fort-Worth Metro,
supported a cold pool and associated outflow boundary that has
remained strong enough to support convergence to activate updrafts
along the leading edge.

RAP analysis notes that capping is starting to win out with loss
of heating, yet a small pocket of conditionally unstable air with
CAPE values in the 1500 J/kg range from Runnels to Bell/N Burnett
county. Deep layer moisture (including through the typically
drier 700-500mb layer, as noted in CIRA LPW) is aligned to support
1.5" total PWats. As such, the favorable broad scale ascent and
the outflow are supporting numerous narrow updrafts in the region,
with solid longevity history as noted from older convection that
had originated the boundary... so scattered updrafts of 1.5-2"/hr
rates have lingered with near zero steering flow or limited enough
to help for some small collisions allowing for these highly
focused incidents of 2-3" totals in 1-2 hours.=20

Instability should be waning through the overnight period and the
outflow boundary should weaken as well, reducing coverage but the
risk remains for a few more hours overnight to suggest a few
incidents of flash flooding will remain possible especially as the
development continues to drift into lower FFG, near the San Saba
River Valley and the northeast Hill Country.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Y3YR0tiPwDJDIw6tLQAvXTnBSxF3Qbu5O-7weB15ga5P3ED2ARACzG3X3s98imAx0yU= KbualKBgssB2SpQgHlIeb7I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32439886 32419838 32279789 31949754 31399750=20
31049781 30909829 30919879 31059917 31369949=20
31789957 32179934=20

=3D =3D =3D
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