ACUS03 KWNS 121931
SWODY3
SPC AC 121929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday over
the central Great Plains. Large to very large hail and severe gusts
will likely be the primary severe hazards.

...Central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak elevated showers/storms will likely be ongoing over eastern KS
Thursday morning owing to warm advection as low-level southerly flow strengthens. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the
CO Front Range to the mid MS Valley during the period invoking
poleward moisture transport via southerly flow. Model guidance
suggests surface dewpoints to rise into the 60s deg F in an narrow
tongue along and east of I-35 in OK and I-135 in central KS. An
elevated mixed layer featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (in
excess of 8 deg C/km) will contribute towards maintaining a cap
through mid afternoon as a moderately to locally very unstable
airmass develops east of a dryline. Strong heating and large-scale
ascent associated with the eastward-migrating impulse will act to
erode convective inhibition. Isolated to widely scattered storms
are possible during the 21-00 UTC period. Forecast soundings favor
supercells with mainly a risk for large to very large hail. Severe
gusts are also possible and would likely focus if small clustering
can occur during the early evening as this activity moves east
towards the lower MO Valley. A south-southwesterly LLJ is forecast
to slightly veer and favor strengthening warm-air advection Thursday
night into the lower MO Valley, perhaps facilitating a lingering
risk for wind/hail and/or additional elevated thunderstorms posing
an overnight hail threat.

..Smith.. 05/12/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 130730
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Friday in parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys...
Mid-level flow will be westerly over the central U.S. on Friday.
Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the central Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture
advection will result in a pocket of moist air from the central
Plains eastward into the lower Missouri Valley, where surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F. Within this
moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by
afternoon. A dryline is forecast to develop on the western edge of
the low-level moisture, from north-central Oklahoma into central
Kansas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to
the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening.
Additional storms are expected to form further east into eastern
Kansas and Missouri, along the northern edge of a low-level jet.

Late Friday afternoon, forecast soundings in the Kansas City area
show a favorable thermodynamic environment for severe storms. MLCAPE
is forecast to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and wind damage. An isolated severe
threat may also develop eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestward into north-central Oklahoma. Instability is expected
to be somewhat weaker in these two areas, which should keep any
severe threat more isolated and marginal.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 131928
SWODY3
SPC AC 131927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Friday in parts of the Midwest, central Plains and lower Missouri
Valley.

...Lower Missouri Valley and Midwest...
Multiple foci for severe storm development are evident in
medium-range model guidance, with considerable variance in the
positioning of these features, Friday and Friday night. A cluster of
storms may be ongoing in the morning hours over the Midwest or
MO/central MS Valleys, further complicating the severe risk. A cold
front is forecast to sag southward across the Midwest and central
Plains into parts of southern NE and northeastern CO. Continued
low-level moisture advection along and north of the boundary will
likely result in adequate destabilization for thunderstorms. While
displaced from the stronger flow aloft near a northern stream upper
trough, enough mid-level flow is evident on area model soundings to
support supercells and organized clusters, some of which may be
behind the front. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with one or
more clusters of strong to severe storms.

Farther south, into KS and western MO, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
are likely to be in place ahead of northern portions of a dryline
and surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to
the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening
with steep mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range. Additional storms are expected to form further east along the
northern edge of the low-level jet. Located between the primary
upper troughs, mid-level flow is weaker here (20-30 kt at 500 mb),
suggesting a messy storm mode, but with some supercell potential.
Hail and damaging gusts are possible with any supercells or clusters
that develop/spread eastward into the evening and overnight.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Near the dryline and lee low, from eastern CO/western KS into
western OK, deep mixing and ascent from the approach of the southern
stream shortwave trough could support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development Friday afternoon. Uncertainty on moisture
depth is high, with some guidance showing modest buoyancy atop a
deeply mixed boundary layer. Should this occur, weak 500 mb winds
could allow for a few multicell clusters with damaging gusts across
the central and southern Plains.

..Lyons.. 05/13/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 140739
SWODY3
SPC AC 140738

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S.
on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the
central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central
High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave
trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form
in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These
storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across
the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where
severe storm development is expected.

By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is
forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern
Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast
soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at
00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very
large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of
hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma
into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase
0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range
across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep
this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting
there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and
magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for
tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if
the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with supercells.

At this point, the greatest potential for a significant large hail
and a strong tornado threat is forecast from central and northern
Kansas into far southern Nebraska. However, there is some
uncertainty concerning the exact scenario that will place out.
During the evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective
cluster will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into
the lower to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind
gusts will be possible.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the
Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing
into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late
afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with
storms moving eastward across the region during the evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with
steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat
with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 140746
SWODY3
SPC AC 140745

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S.
on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the
central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central
High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave
trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form
in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These
storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across
the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where
severe storm development will be possible.

By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is
forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern
Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast
soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at
00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very
large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of
hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma
into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase
0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range
across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep
this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting
there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and
magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for
tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if
the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with supercells. During the
evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective cluster
will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into the lower
to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind gusts will
be possible.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the
Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing
into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late
afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with
storms moving eastward across the region during the evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with
steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat
with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 141929
SWODY3
SPC AC 141928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will gradually become established over the
western CONUS over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, southwesterly
mid-level flow will become more prominent across the central
Rockies/Plains, resulting in steady deepening of a lee trough
through Saturday. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and
central Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the
Plains, bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a
diffuse warm frontal zone. Medium and long-range guidance depicts an
embedded low-amplitude upper disturbance propagating into the Plains
late Saturday afternoon, which will augment ascent and promote
thunderstorm development in proximity to a deepening lee cyclone
across parts of eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorm chances are expected along the dryline
across southwest KS into western OK and northwest TX, as well as
along a warm frontal zone across portions of the Midwest/OH Valley
regions.

...Central Plains...
A deepening surface low will likely become apparent across the
central High Plains ahead of the upper-level disturbance. Convective
initiation is anticipated by late afternoon in proximity to the
surface low and along the warm front where MLCAPE values will likely
exceed 2000 J/kg. Elongated hodographs depicted by most forecast
guidance suggests organized supercells will be possible, and could
pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. With time, upscale
growth and an increasing severe wind threat is anticipated as storms
propagate along the frontal zone. Recent guidance has shown fairly
good agreement in a northward shift of the most volatile convective
environment from central KS northwestward into northwest KS/central
NE. Similarly, long-range CAM guidance also depicts the best
convective signal across this region. Severe probabilities were
adjusted northward to reflect this trend.

...Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas...
Capping at the base of an EML will likely suppress convective
development along most the dryline across western OK and northwest
TX. However, strong diurnal heating coupled with southerly flow
through the lowest 2-3 km should promote eroding inhibition and
considerable parcel residence time within the dryline circulation.
While medium-range ensemble QPF signal is very limited, long-range
CAM guidance depicts at least some signal for deep convection.
Thunderstorms that can become sustained along the dryline will
likely pose a threat for large hail and severe winds given around 30
knots of effective bulk shear.

...Midwest/OH Valleys...
A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to spread east
towards the Midwest through the day. The inhibiting influence of
low-level warming near the base of the EML will be offset to some
degree by persistent low-level theta-e advection. Consequently,
isolated to widely scattered convection appears probable across
central IL into portions of the OH Valley. MUCAPE values on the
order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep convection, and
effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the warm frontal
zone may allow for organized convection with an attendant threat for
severe hail and wind.

..Moore.. 05/14/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 150732
SWODY3
SPC AC 150731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be likely Sunday from portions of the central and
southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells capable of
all hazards will be possible before upscale growth and an emerging
damaging wind risk continues into the evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will begin to eject across the Intermountain
West on D3/Sunday with a more subtle shortwave trough moving across
the central Plains. As a result, deepening low pressure will develop
across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strengthening southerly
flow and warm moist advection south of a warm front lifting
northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Early in the
period, elevated storms will likely be ongoing across portions of
Iowa into southern Minnesota. Scattered severe storms capable of all
hazards will be expected to develop near the warm front/low across
eastern Colorado into Nebraska and across southern South Dakota
continuing into portions of the upper-Midwest along the cold front
through the evening. A more isolated and conditional threat for
severe storms will extend southward along the dryline from western
Kansas into western Oklahoma.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Early day elevated convection is expected to move across portions of
Iowa into the upper-Midwest. This will pose some risk for severe
hail through the morning. Across the central Plains, strong daytime
heating is expected to yield moderate to strong instability across
much of the central Plains. This in combination with strong deep
layer shear suggests a rather volatile environment, particularly
across central Nebraska into southern South Dakota/northwestern
Iowa. Guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop across
eastern Colorado into Nebraska by the afternoon. Initial
thunderstorm development will likely be supercellular and capable of
all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and
tornadoes. As the front sags southward through the evening, eventual
upscale growth into a squall line is expected by the evening. A
strong 50 kt low-level jet will ramp up into the evening, which may
support a continuing potential for tornadoes, some of which may be
strong.

...Western Kansas into western Oklahoma...
A more conditional threat may extend southward along the dryline
into western Kansas and western Oklahoma. Guidance suggests some
signal for isolated supercells to develop along and east of the
dryline Sunday afternoon. The environment here will conditionally
favor large to very large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado
or two with the strengthening low-level jet in the evening.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 151930
SWODY3
SPC AC 151929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale
storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

...Synopsis...
The primary midlevel trough over the northern Great Basin Sunday
morning will progress to the Four Corners by Monday morning. A
subtle, lead shortwave trough (now over northern CA) will eject
northeastward during the day from NM to western KS/central NE, and
it will reach MN by early Monday. A weak reflection of the initial
lee cyclone will likewise move north-northeastward across NE to MN,
along a pre-existing baroclinic zone. The boundary layer will
consist mostly of roughly mid 60s dewpoints east of the dryline and
south of the warm front Sunday, while the fully modified (maritime
tropical) air mass will return to TX through Sunday night.

...NE to MN...
The elevated remnants of overnight convection across NE/IA, and an
associated MCV, should move northeastward toward the upper MS Valley
and weaken. In the wake of the early convection, surface heating in
cloud breaks will contribute to destabilization and storm
development will become probable by Sunday afternoon/evening along
the stalled front in NE, in advance of the weak surface cyclone and subtle/ejecting midlevel trough. Mesoscale details are fairly
uncertain this far in advance. Still, the forecast environment
appears favorable for initial supercells with very large hail and
tornadoes, and some increase in the threat for damaging winds as
convection grows upscale along the front and spreads northeastward
into southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday
night.

...Western KS to TX Panhandle dryline...
A relatively warm elevated mixed layer and no obvious forcing for
ascent both suggest that storm initiation will rely on sufficiently
deep mixing along the dryline, and that storm formation is very much
in question. If a storm or two forms late afternoon/evening before
the dryline retreats overnight, there be a conditional threat for
supercells with large hail.

..Thompson.. 05/15/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 160737
SWODY3
SPC AC 160736

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before
ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow
aloft overspreading the region. As a result, a strong surface low
will development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will
extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper
Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western
Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along
the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central
Kansas.

...Central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska...
A volatile environment is expected to be in place ahead of the
dryline across central Kansas Monday afternoon, with moderate to
strong instability, strong deep layer shear, and steep low to
mid-level lapse rates. This will favor supercells as the primary
mode with developing thunderstorms along the dryline in the
afternoon, with potential for large to very large hail (some 2-4
inch). Through the afternoon and evening, a 40-50 kt southerly low
level jet will shift into central Kansas with large clockwise
enhancement of low-level hodographs. Should the mode be able to
remain discrete supercells, strong to intense tornadoes will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. This in
combination with potential for very large hail may warrant higher
probabilities as mesoscale details become clearer.

As the front shifts southward through time, upscale growth will be
favored with increasing probabilities for damaging winds.

...Iowa into Wisconsin and the Great Lakes Region...
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected further north
along the front into Iowa/Wisconsin and north into the Great Lakes
Region. Early day convection may be ongoing at the start of the
period within these regions, which may limit how much
destabilization can occur before the afternoon. Nonetheless,
guidance suggests potential for damaging wind and perhaps a few
instances of severe hail with storms along the front Monday
afternoon and evening.

...Western Oklahoma into northern Texas...
Forcing for ascent will be weaker across the dryline into western
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Guidance does suggest that a few
isolated supercells could develop near the dryline, with potential
for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
Given the strong flow aloft and better large scale ascent will
reside further north in Kansas, mode may quickly become messy with
uncertainty in overall coverage at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 161932
SWODY3
SPC AC 161931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...PARTS OF
IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough is forecast to extend from MT to the Four Corners
Monday morning. An upper shortwave trough emanating from the base of
the larger-scale western U.S. trough is forecast to lift northeast
across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period.
As this occurs, a belt of strong southwesterly midlevel flow will
overspread OK/KS into IA and the Great Lakes vicinity. Beneath
enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow, rich Gulf moisture will
spread north/northeast from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS
Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front will reside from the
Upper MS Valley to a surface low over central KS during the
afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the KS surface low
into western OK/west-central TX. A volatile environment is expected
across parts of the warm sector, particularly across KS into IA,
where significant all-hazards severe storms are expected.

...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO...

Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline
and cold front. This area should remain mostly free from convective contamination from any continuing convection from late in the Day
2/Sunday period. Strong heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates
will contribute to strong destabilization. Supercell wind profiles
are expected, with backed low-level winds veering with height, while
also increasing in speed. Southerly 850-700 mb flow is forecast to
strengthen in the 21-00z time frame as large-scale ascent also
increases. This will allow for enlarged low-level hodograph
curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH. Robust convection will develop
within the warm sector and supercell capable of very large hail (2-4
inch diameter), strong to intense tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts
will be possible.

With time, convection will likely grow upscale as the surface cold
front begins to develop southeast through the evening/nighttime
hours.

...Central IA into portions of IL/WI/IN/Lower MI...

Uncertainty is greater with northeast extent on Monday. Ongoing
convection and cloud cover is possible across parts of IA into WI
Monday morning. Regardless, a moist airmass will be in place.
Depending on location and extent of morning convection, airmass
recovery is possible. Furthermore, downstream destabilization into
parts of northern IL/IN and Lower MI seems more likely. This could
result in re-intensification of any morning convection as it spreads
east. While convective evolution remains uncertain, a damaging wind
and hail risk appears possible.

...OK/TX...

A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX.
Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer
flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still
sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large
to very large hail will exist.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 170732
SWODY3
SPC AC 170730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold
front extending from the Great Lakes into the portions of the
Midwest and south to the Southern Plains. Storms will pose a risk
for primarily damaging wind and hail.

...Synopsis...
A cold front will extend from the Great Lakes region to the Midwest
and south into the Southern Plains D3/Tuesday. The upper-level
trough will continue lifting north and east into the Great Lakes
through the period.

...Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes...
Some remnant elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing toward
the start of the period D3/Tuesday across the upper Midwest. This
may pose some potential for a few instances of severe hail.
Redevelopment of thunderstorms is likely along the front by the
afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and moderate instability ahead of the front may support supercells initially
capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado. Linear forcing with the
cold front will likely lead to upscale growth and potential for
damaging wind downstream into the Ohio Valley through time.

...Oklahoma/Texas...
Trends continue for more progressive movement of the cold front
through Oklahoma/north Texas Tuesday morning. As a result,
probabilities were shifted eastward again with this update. Widely
scattered thunderstorm development is expected by the afternoon
across eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Though the better
mid-level flow will be displaced to the north, steep low to
mid-level lapse rates remaining across this region will support
potential for damaging wind and large hail given moderate
instability ahead of the front.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 171912
SWODY3
SPC AC 171911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold
front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the
southern Plains.

...Great Lakes and vicinity...
An ejecting midlevel trough over the upper MS Valley early in the
period will begin to phase with the northern stream while moving
eastward over the Great Lakes. An associated surface cyclone will
move across southern ON/QC, as a trailing cold front progresses
southeastward across the OH/middle MS Valleys and into the southern
Plains. Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period along the cold front from northwest TX and OK to the middle
MS Valley and the vicinity of Lake MI. The stronger low-midlevel
flow will be confined to the area closer to the Great Lakes, where
some diurnal destabilization could allow an uptick in threat for
wind damage and isolated large hail.

...Lower OH Valley into the southern Plains...
Farther southwest, flow aloft will be weaker and convection will be
tied to the slowing front and/or convective outflows from D2
convection persisting into D3. Moderate to strong buoyancy (greater
to the west into TX) is expected just ahead of the front, which
combined with the relatively weak wind profiles, will favor
multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional
wind damage and isolated large hail through the afternoon. There
will be some potential for an isolated supercell or two to move off
the Serranias del Burro into TX where large CAPE will coincide with
the cyclonic side of the subtropical jet and at least marginally
sufficient vertical shear. Otherwise, the pattern will transition
overnight to a weak warm advection regime atop the cool air mass,
where elevated storms could produce large hail from northwest TX
into southern OK.

..Thompson.. 05/17/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 180725
SWODY3
SPC AC 180724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for wind and hail. Isolated thunderstorms
within the upslope regime in western Texas/eastern New Mexico will
also pose a risk for large hail.

...Discussion...
The mid-level trough across the Great Lakes will continue to lift
northward into Canada D3/Wednesday. A cold front will extend from
the Northeast southward across the southern Ohio Valley into the
lower Mississippi Valley and westward into southwestern Texas. Near
the front across the Mid-Atlantic, sufficient deep layer shear and
MLCAPE will be in place to support a few organized storms, with
potential for damaging winds and large hail which supports inclusion
of a Marginal Risk.

Further south across western Texas, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms may develop south of the front within the upslope flow
regime across western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Though deep
layer shear will be generally weak, moderate instability and steep
low to mid-level lapse rates may support a few instances of large
hail and severe winds.

..Thornton.. 05/18/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 181914
SWODY3
SPC AC 181913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for sporadic occurrences of damaging
wind. Large hail is expected to be the predominant hazard with
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing over the
southern High Plains into southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks will
progress from the Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley, with
a modest enhancement to the westerly, mid-level flow as far south as
southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic region. Elsewhere, a
short-wave trough initially near the Four Corners region will weaken
while moving into confluent, mid-level flow over the central and
southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeast through New England and the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday, with
an upslope regime becoming established over the southern High
Plains.


...Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic...

A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to develop
ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon, along the immediate southern
fringe of the stronger mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer
shear. The generally weak warm-sector shear and poor mid-level lapse
rates are expected to limit the potential for a more robust
severe-weather threat. However, the presence of steep low-level
lapse rates will support locally strong up/downdrafts capable of
isolated occurrences of damaging winds during the afternoon and
early-evening hours.


...Southern High Plains into southwest Texas...

Surface ridging initially over the southern High Plains Wednesday
morning is forecast to weaken through the day with a narrow wedge of
50s to low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints from the Edwards Plateau
into southeast NM, to the south of a weakening surface front. The
moisture will combine with steep low/mid-level lapse rates to
support a corridor of moderate, surface-based instability by
afternoon. A broader envelope of moderate, elevated instability is
expected to develop over the southern High Plains Wednesday
afternoon into night, to the north of the front.

Low-level upslope flow into the high terrain of NM and southwest TX
will be augmented by the glancing influence of the short-wave trough
to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon amidst a kinematic environment featuring 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. The primary hazard will be sporadic large-hail
occurrences. Additional, elevated thunderstorms are expected to
develop Wednesday afternoon into evening across the TX South Plains
into west-central TX, within a strengthening warm-advection regime.
While deep-layer shear is expected to be weaker than locations to west/southwest, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will
support vigorous updrafts capable of isolated, large hail
occurrences.

..Mead.. 05/18/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 190724
SWODY3
SPC AC 190723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected across the
northern Rockies, portions of the southern Florida peninsula, and
from the southern Plains to portions of the Southeast on Thursday.
Severe storms are not expected.

...Discussion...
A few thunderstorms will be possible near the upper low across
Montana. Limited moisture and weak instability will limit the severe
risk in this region.

A stationary front will extend from far southern Texas into the
Mississippi Valley and northward to the Carolinas. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected along and south of the front across the
Southeast and mid Atlantic. Additional afternoon thunderstorms will
develop across the southern Florida peninsula with the sea breeze
circulation. Storms will likely be sub severe, given weak flow/shear
for organization across these regions.

Across the southern High Plains, widely scattered thunderstorm
activity is expected near the front and across portions of the high
terrain from western Texas into eastern New Mexico/southeastern
Colorado. Moisture will become more limited with northern extent in
New Mexico and Colorado, with dew points in the low 50s. A few
stronger storms may produce instances of strong winds and small
hail. Overall, the stronger mid-level flow should remain displaced
from the better moisture leading to low confidence in a more
organized severe threat.

..Thornton.. 05/19/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 191907
SWODY3
SPC AC 191907

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and
southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak initially
over the northern Rockies Thursday morning will translate southeast
into the central Rockies, within the base of a mid/upper-level low
situated over southern Saskatchewan. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum,
possibly of convective origins, is forecast to progress from the
southern Plains toward the mid/lower MS and TN Valleys.

At the surface, a frontal system tied to the northern and central
Rockies trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains,
while a front remains quasi-stationary from NC through the TN Valley
into Ozark Plateau.


...Central and Southern High Plains...

In the absence of appreciable boundary-layer moisture content, the
presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg from south of I-70 in the lee of the CO Front Range to
the Raton Mesa and points south. Low-level upslope flow coupled with
increased forcing for ascent downstream from the approaching
vorticity maximum are expected to foster isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development along the favored terrain
Thursday afternoon into evening. The presence of 30-40 kt deep-layer
shear will support the potential for some storm organization with an
attendant large-hail threat.


...Northern High Plains...

Diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is expected to occur
across eastern parts of MT and WY into the western Dakotas, along
the surface front, and ahead of the mid-level trough. Limited
instability and vertical shear are expected to limited
severe-weather potential.

..Mead.. 05/19/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 200723
SWODY3
SPC AC 200722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions
of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging
wind.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave will move across the central Plains on D3/Friday. A
weak lee low will develop across northeastern New
Mexico/southeastern Colorado, with a dryline extending from the
OK/TX Panhandles into southwestern Texas. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected along and east of the dryline by Friday afternoon, with
potential for large hail and damaging wind.

...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of southwestern Kansas,
western Oklahoma, and northwestern Texas...
While there remains some uncertainty in the exact eastward placement
of the dryline Friday afternoon, guidance continues to suggest
eroding MLCIN and potential for convective development by the
afternoon as weak ascent spreads across KS into northern OK. Ahead
of the dryline, the environment will be characterized by steep low
to mid-level lapse rates and moderate to strong instability. Deep
layer shear around 30-35 kts would support potential for initial
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind. Clustering and
more multi-cell mixed mode thunderstorms may evolve into a damaging
wind threat through time.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected south of a
stationary boundary extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into
Tennessee and south into northern Georgia. Though weak to moderate
instability will be in place, weak flow aloft and weak deep layer
shear will likely keep storms sub-severe.

..Thornton.. 05/20/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 201924
SWODY3
SPC AC 201924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions
of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging
wind.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the northern and central High
Plains Friday morning is expected to become negatively tilted as it
translates into the upper MS Valley Friday night. A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will accompany that feature across the central
Plains. A separate, weaker disturbance is expected to be loosely
phased with the north-central U.S. system, tracking from the Ozark
Plateau and lower MS Valley into the OH and TN Valleys.

At the surface, A cold front associated with the former disturbance
mentioned above is forecast to move through the northern and central
Plains with the trailing extension of that boundary pushing into the
southern High Plains, where it will link with a surface low. Farther
east, a secondary surface low (tied to the lower-latitude impulse)
is expected to develop from the lower MS into OH Valley with an
associated warm front lifting north through the TN into OH Valley.


...Southern Plains...

Despite rising mid-level heights through the day, convergence along
the front and/or upslope flow in its immediate wake are expected to
support widely scattered thunderstorm development over parts of northeast/east-central NM into the TX Panhandle by mid to late
afternoon. The combination of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s will support a
moderately unstable air mass amidst a kinematic environment
featuring a vertically veering wind profile with effective bulk
shear of 30-35 kt. That parameter space will support organized
multicell or supercell storm modes initially with the predominant
hazard being large hail. The 12z models suggest upscale growth of
the initial storms into an MCS with an isolated hail and wind threat
continuing east across parts of OK and northwest TX Friday evening
into Friday night.


...Central Plains...

An axis of 50s to low 60s dewpoints are expected to spread north
from KS into eastern NE ahead of the cold front. However, widespread
clouds and areas of precipitation are expected to limit
boundary-layer heating and air mass destabilization. So, despite
increased forcing for ascent and strengthening low-level and
deep-layer shear, the unfavorable thermodynamic environment is
expected to preclude severe-storm potential.

...TN and OH Valleys...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the forecast
period along and south of the warm front, aiding by forcing for
ascent associated with the short-wave trough moving through the
region. Generally weak lapse rates are expected to limit air mass destabilization, despite the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in
the 60s to low 70s. However, a modest enhancement of mid-level winds
attending the short-wave trough, and more so, intensifying 850-mb
flow Friday afternoon into night, will result in strengthening
vertical shear, especially across the OH Valley Friday night. As
such, potential will exist for transient supercell structures to be
embedded in the broader-scale convective shield with a non-zero risk
for a brief tornado.

..Mead.. 05/20/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 210730
SWODY3
SPC AC 210729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from the
central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and
southeastern US. A few stronger storms may be possible across the
southern Plains, particularly near the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

...Synopsis...
A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D3/Saturday
as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing
cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern
Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley
and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible
across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.

...TX/OK Panhandles...
Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock
will produce scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon.
Forecast soundings suggest a plume of steep to low mid-level lapse
rates will still reside across the OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to
60s dew points and moderate instability by the afternoon. Shear
profiles will be fairly weak, with deep layer shear around 25 kts. A
few stronger storms may produce gusty winds and hail. Overall, weak
deep layer shear for organization may limit the severe threat.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 211928
SWODY3
SPC AC 211927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RATON MESA INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible across
portions of central and south Texas toward the middle Texas coast.
Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible from the Raton
Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.

...Synopsis...

Broader-scale troughing will be maintained over the north-central
U.S. Saturday into Saturday night, with an embedded short-wave
trough moving through the central Plains. To the immediate east, a
short-wave trough initially over the OH Valley will lift northeast
through the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude disturbance is
forecast to slowly track through TX. At the surface, an area of low
pressure will gradually undergo occlusion over OH into southwest
Ontario with a trailing front extending southwest through the lower
OH Valley into the southern Plains.


...Central and Southern Texas to the Middle Texas Coast...

There is general agreement in 12z model guidance that thunderstorms
will develop fairly early in the day across the Edwards Plateau,
east of a weak surface low and approaching short-wave trough. The
downstream air mass across central and southern TX is expected to be
moist with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s, and within the eastern
fringe of a steep mid-level lapse rate plume, yielding moderate to
strong afternoon instability. As such, the early-day thunderstorms
are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the
afternoon while advancing east/southeast into central and deep south
TX, and eventually toward the TX coast. Some enhancement of
deep-layer shear is forecast across south TX, which will aid in hail
production and cold pool organization, and resultant damaging wind
potential.


...Raton Mesa into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...

Southeasterly, upslope flow will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon along favored terrain. The
combination of a moderately unstable, steep-lapse-rate environment
and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear will support some potential for
supercell storm modes with an attendant risk for large hail. Storms
will tend to drift southeast into the OK and TX panhandles before
weakening.


...Southeast...

A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to develop
Saturday afternoon, with terrain and sea-breeze boundaries serving
as the main foci for diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development.
The models focus the most concentrated thunderstorm activity from
the Savannah River Valley into north FL. There is some model signal
for a weak mid-level disturbance and slightly stronger deep-layer
shear to potentially enhance that thunderstorm regime. Low wind
probabilities may eventually need to be added if confidence
increases in the existence of those features.


...Upper Ohio Valley...

A conditional risk of severe storms exists across the upper OH
Valley Saturday afternoon, east of the surface low and associated
surface front, where vertical shear will be enhanced. The main
uncertainty is the degree of instability within the narrow warm
sector, which varies considerably from model to model. Low
severe-weather probabilities may eventually be included, should
subsequent model trends indicate a more consistent signal for
stronger air mass destabilization.

..Mead.. 05/21/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 220727
SWODY3
SPC AC 220726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio
Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of the
Nebraska and Iowa.

...Synopsis...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely south of a
stationary front extending from the southern Plains into the lower
Ohio Valley. A few additional thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern High Plains within the easterly upslope regime. A
shortwave trough will move across the central/northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest on D3/Sunday, which may be a focus of thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska and Iowa. A few stronger
thunderstorms may be possible in these regions.

...Eastern Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota, western Iowa...
As the shortwave moves through the central Plains, guidance has
trended northward with moisture return into the central Plains by
D3/Sunday. Some deterministic guidance (NAM, ECMWF, GFS) suggest
that a plume of mid 50 to 60s dew points may advect up into eastern
Nebraska near a northward moving pseudo warm frontal boundary. A
narrow corridor of moderate instability may develop and overlap
around 40-45 kts of deep layer shear across this region by Sunday
afternoon. Forecast soundings depict supercells profiles, with steep
low to mid-level lapse rates. While there remains some low
confidence in moisture availability, trends in 00z guidance suggest
adding in low end severe probabilities.

...Southeast...
A few stronger thunderstorms may develop across portions of the
southeastern US Sunday afternoon. Though shear profiles are
generally weak, moderate instability will be in place with strong
daytime heating and potential for water laden down bursts and a few
instances of strong to locally severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/22/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 221928
SWODY3
SPC AC 221927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio
Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska
into southwest Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level flow ill become more quasi-zonal on Sunday across the
northern tier of the CONUS. Flow for central/southern portions of
the U.S. will be much weaker. A surface low within the Canadian
Prairie will develop ahead of the stronger shortwave trough off the
Northwest coast. This feature will draw at least modest moisture
northward into the central and parts of the northern Plains.

...Nebraska into Minnesota...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible along a relatively
weak surface trough/theta-e gradient. Forcing for ascent will not be
that strong as the modest trough slides east of the region through
the day. However, temperatures in the mid/upper 80s F may be
sufficient along with the weak surface convergence to initiate
storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively long hodographs, and
30-40 kt of northwesterly shear would suggest large hail potential.
The boundary layer will also be well mixed so severe wind gusts will
also be possible.

..Wendt.. 05/22/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 230718
SWODY3
SPC AC 230717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible from portions of the
Southwest to the central/southern High Plains and across the
southern Ohio Valley and the Southeast. Additional shower and
thunderstorm activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest.
Severe storms are generally not expected.

On D3/Monday, guidance suggests that height rises will begin across
the central US as a high amplitude ridge builds in from the west. An
upper level low will begin to deepen and move inland across the
Pacific Northwest through the period. Though instability will be
minimal, cooling temperatures aloft with the upper low may promote a
few thunderstorms towards the end of the period.

Slow moisture return will continue across much of the Plains into
the Midwest, with areas of widely scattered areas of thunderstorms
possible across portions of the Southwest to the southern/central
High Plains and from the southern Ohio Valley into the Southeast. A
few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible from the
Plains to the Southeast where better instability resides, but
generally weak flow and subsidence aloft will keep organized storm
potential low.

..Thornton.. 05/23/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 231927
SWODY3
SPC AC 231926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for
Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Little change to the overall pattern expected across the CONUS on
Monday. A very slow-moving mid/upper low/trough is expected to
remain in the vicinity of east TX/western LA, which will maintain
potential for scattered to widespread thunderstorms across parts of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Another slow-moving mid/upper trough
will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest
and southern Rockies. A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough
will move into the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon and
evening.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region...
Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop Monday afternoon
from parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes,
though some uncertainty remains regarding the quality of low-level
moisture across this region.

Modest west-northwesterly midlevel flow will result in 30-40 kt of
effective shear across parts of MN/WI and Upper MI, but confidence
in storm development within this conditionally favorable environment
is low, with midlevel height rises and generally minimal large-scale
ascent expected across the region.

Forcing will also be weak into parts of the central Plains, but
strong heating and presence of a remnant surface boundary may
support isolated storm development from late afternoon into the
evening. A threat for localized hail and strong to severe gusts
could accompany the strongest storms, but weak deep-layer shear and
uncertainty regarding storm coverage limit confidence in organized
severe potential at this time.

...Southern NM into west TX...
Isolated strong storms could develop on Monday from parts of
southern NM into west TX, in advance of the mid/upper trough over
the Southwest. At this time, it appears that the stronger forcing
associated with the upper trough will remain displaced from the
richer moisture across parts of central/southwest TX through most of
the period. However, a faster trough ejection and/or more
substantial moisture return could result in an isolated severe
threat during the late afternoon and evening.

...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast...
Modest enhancement to midlevel flow may continue across parts of the
Gulf Coast and Southeast, to the east of the persistent mid/upper
low/trough over east TX. Depending on the evolution of D1/D2
convection and any MCV development, a low-probability severe threat
could evolve over some part of this region, but confidence is much
too low to include probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 05/23/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 240756
SWODY3
SPC AC 240755

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into
southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Across this region,
possible hazards will include large to very large hail, severe
gusts, and perhaps a tornado.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tuesday.
The subtropical jet will increase across Baja California into
Mexico, with modest westerly flow aloft extending across western
Texas. Scattered severe storms will be possible across portions of
western Texas and central Montana.

...Western Texas into southeastern New Mexico...
Modest westerly flow aloft will extend into western Texas Tuesday
afternoon. Easterly upslope flow across the high terrain of the
Davis Mountains and Stockton/Edwards Plateau and subtle mid-level
forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm
activity by the afternoon. Daytime heating will allow for
temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s in combination with
mid 50s to 60s dew points yielding an axis of moderate to strong
instability from just east of Big Bend and north to the southern
Permian Basin. In addition, a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse
rates will overspread the region by the afternoon. Forecast
soundings suggest around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear, which will support
supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts.
Initially, hodographs will be generally straight but increasing
southeasterly flow by the evening may support potential for
increasing low-level shear and perhaps a tornado.

...Montana...
Increasing mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will overspread
portions of central Montana Tuesday afternoon, supporting scattered thunderstorms by the afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates
and modest instability/shear will support potential for a few
instances of large hail and severe gusts.

..Thornton.. 05/24/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS03 KWNS 241923
SWODY3
SPC AC 241922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into
southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this
region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be
possible.

...Parts of west TX and southeast NM...
No major changes have been made to the Slight Risk area. A broad
negative-tilt mid/upper trough with multiple embedded vorticity
maxima will impinge upon relatively rich moisture and moderate to
locally strong buoyancy across parts of west TX and southeast NM on
Tuesday. Weak capping and increasingly difluent flow aloft will
likely lead to multiple rounds of thunderstorms through the day and
into Tuesday night. Low-level southeasterly flow veering to modest southwesterlies aloft will result in 30-40 kt of effective shear,
supporting potential for organized clusters and a few supercells.
Large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest
storms. Gradually increasing low-level shear/SRH could also support
some tornado threat from afternoon into the evening.

Convection could spread into a larger portion of south-central TX by
Tuesday night, though decreasing shear and increasing low-level
stability with eastward extent should lead to an eventual weakening
trend. The Marginal Risk was expanded eastward somewhat to account
for isolated severe potential into late evening.

...Central/western MT and adjacent parts of northern ID...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day/evening from
parts of northern ID into western/central MT, in association with a mid/upper-level low/trough over the Pacific Northwest. Moisture and
instability will likely remain modest at best, but increasing
deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms, with a threat of
localized severe gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Dean.. 05/24/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)