ACUS02 KWNS 121734
SWODY2
SPC AC 121733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind
gusts are the primary hazard.

...Northern Rockies and High Plains into northern Utah...
A potent mid-level shortwave trough over western OR/WA will move
east across the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains as a
downstream ridge shifts east into the Upper Midwest by early
Thursday morning. An attendant 80-90 kt 500 mb speed max will
overspread ID/MT by peak heating as a cold front sweeps east across
portions of the northern Rockies into the northern parts of the
Great Basin. Forcing for ascent and diurnal destabilization will
lead to scattered thunderstorms developing by mid afternoon.
Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint
depressions and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Increasing flow
through the cloud-bearing layer will result in relatively swift
storm motions within pre-conditioned, dry-adiabatic 0-3 km lapse
rates. Isolated to scattered storms developing over the higher
terrain will move into the lower elevations and increase in coverage
as a couple of linear clusters evolve towards early evening across
central MT, and to a lesser degree, across eastern ID. The primary
risk will be severe gusts (60-80 mph) accompanying the stronger
cores and outflow. Farther south, very deeply mixed boundary layers
evident in forecast soundings across northern UT into southern ID
will favor severe gusts with the stronger cores.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough initially over the central Great Lakes will
move east-southeastward to the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic
states vicinity during the period. Strong cyclonically curved,
500-mb flow (50+ kt) will move through the base of the trough. A
surface low will move eastward across southwestern Ontario as a cold
front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will
contribute to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during
the day. Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead
to scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms
forming due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians.
Ahead of the front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to
steepen by midday/early afternoon, lending the potential for several
stronger thunderstorms capable of an isolated risk for wind damage
and localized severe gusts.

...TX Panhandle...
Despite a 500-mb ridge overhead, very strong boundary layer heating
may sufficiently erode convective inhibition and yield a couple of thunderstorms developing near the Caprock (22-00 UTC). Very steep
lapse rates will support an isolated risk for hail/wind if sustained
storms develop. This activity will likely dissipate by mid evening.

..Smith.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130600
SWODY2
SPC AC 130559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more
isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri
Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move into the upper Mississippi
Valley and Ozarks on Thursday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much
of the eastern half of Kansas. During the day, the airmass will
become moderately unstable as surface temperatures warm. In the
afternoon, low-level convergence will increase along a dryline in
southern and central Kansas supporting scattered thunderstorm
development. A few storms are expected to increase in intensity and
move eastward across central and eastern Kansas during the late
afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range,
0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rate near 8 C/km
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of
greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with any supercell that
can become intense. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible. The storms are expected to move eastward into the lower
Missouri Valley during the evening and overnight period, and should
gradually increase in coverage as a low-level jet strengthens.
Although the storms are expected to become elevated, instability and
effective shear are forecast to be strong enough for a continued
isolated severe threat.

...Southern High Plains...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern High
Plains on Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near this trough over parts of west Texas Thursday afternoon. Nearly
dry adiabatic lapse rates are evident on forecast soundings. This
environment should support isolated severe wind gusts, as a few of
the developing cells mix the stronger flow down to the surface
during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131723
SWODY2
SPC AC 131722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more
isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri
Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
Prominent mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to
weaken and shift eastward Thursday as a flanking upper low moves
eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A second upper trough, and
associated southern stream shortwave, will move out of the Rockies
and into the Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Ascent from this
trough will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the central
High Plains, south of a cold front advancing through the upper
Midwest. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of the lee low will
allow destabilization and increased thunderstorm chances along a
trailing dryline from the central Plains to the southern High
Plains.

...Central KS into the MO and central MS Valley...
As the southern lee low deepens ahead of the southern stream
shortwave trough, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will
quickly return northward into central KS. Model guidance varies
considerably on the depth and quality of the low-level moisture.
However, dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F appear plausible by
late afternoon and continuing to increase into the evening. This, in combination with ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates, will
support moderate destabilization (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) along the dryline/triple point. Low-level southerly flow, veering to 40-50 kt
in the mid-levels and orthogonal to the dryline will promote
supercell wind profiles.

While capping is expected to remain fairly strong, casting some
uncertainty on storm coverage, ascent from the approaching shortwave
trough along with diurnal heating should remove inhibition.
Convective development is possible near the surface low, or
originating within the more deeply mixed air mass to the west of the
dryline, by late afternoon/early evening. Large hail would be likely
initially, along with some potential for severe wind gusts given the
dry boundary layer. As these storms encounter the increasing surface
moisture, gradual intensification of a few supercells is possible.
The increase in the low-level jet after 00z could support additional development, while also increasing low-level shear. A tornado is
possible with any supercells able to remain discrete near sunset
given 0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2.

Eventually, storms should congeal into a cluster and spread eastward
into MO and the mid MS Valley overnight. Some hail and damaging gust
threat remain possible into early D3/Friday.

...Southern and central High Plains...
To the west of the dryline, robust heating and deep vertical mixing
should support the development of weak instability atop a relatively
dry boundary layer. By mid afternoon, high-based showers and
thunderstorms are expected from eastern CO, western KS into parts of
the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern NM. While buoyancy appears quite
limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the
lowest 3 km will likely support stronger downdrafts with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Isolated severe wind gusts are possible given
the dry sub cloud layer.

..Lyons.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140602
SWODY2
SPC AC 140600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
West to west-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on
Friday across the central U.S, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the central Plains. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection
will raise surface dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s F from the
eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri
Valley. A surface low will deepen over far western Oklahoma, with an
inverted trough extending northward into central Kansas and
northeastward into southeast Nebraska. Isolated convective
initiation is expected near and to the east of the surface trough
during the late afternoon. Convective coverage should gradually
increase in the evening as low-level warm advection strengthens.

By late afternoon, model forecast show a pocket of moderate to
strong instability over northeast Kansas. Forecast soundings at 00Z
in this area have MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear near 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in
the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells
will also be capable of severe wind gusts. During the late evening
and overnight, a severe threat may continue over parts of the
central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens. Isolated severe
storms will be possible in northwestern Kansas late in the period,
as a secondary shortwave approaches.

Further south into parts of western Oklahoma, a capping inversion is
forecast to be in place during the late afternoon and early evening.
However, lapse rates are forecast to be very steep with some models
showing 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. In addition, moderate
deep-layer shear is forecast. If a cell can initiate in spite of the
cap, then supercells with large hail would be possible.

...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
Low-level moisture will gradually increase across the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Although
instability is forecast to remain weak, isolated thunderstorms may
initiate as a low-level jet moves into the region from the
southwest. By mid to late evening, MUCAPE is forecast to increase
into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots over
much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. For this reason,
isolated severe storms will be possible, with strong wind gusts and
hail as the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141722
SWODY2
SPC AC 141720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A predominantly zonal flow regime aloft will persist over the
central U.S. through Friday. An embedded weak upper-level
disturbance (currently over the Southwest) will migrate eastward
across the central Plains through tomorrow, reaching the mid-MS
River Valley by late evening. This flow regime will promote modest
deepening of a surface low over western OK/KS through the day with
continued northward advection of a seasonally moist air mass to the
east of a dryline and ahead of an inverted surface trough across the Plains/upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along
these boundaries by late afternoon, likely lasting into the
overnight hours for portions of the Lower Missouri River
Valley/Midwest.

...Lower Missouri River Valley...
Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated by late afternoon across
central NE along the inverted surface trough where warm conditions
on the fringe of returning moisture should yield weakly capped
thermodynamic profiles. Stronger mid-level flow across the central
Plains will favor higher probabilities for organized convection,
including the potential for supercells. However, weak low-level
storm-relative winds within a deeply mixed air mass may promote outflow-dominant convection and the potential for relatively quick
upscale growth. While discrete modes can be maintained, steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong zonal speed shear will promote the
potential for large/very large hail.

Regardless, over the past 12-24 hours both deterministic and
ensemble guidance have trended towards a more north/northwesterly
placement of the inverted trough as well as the zone of convective
initiation and downstream storm propagation. Based on these trends,
15% hail and wind probabilities have been shifted northward.
Additionally, 5% hail/wind probabilities were expanded eastward into
portions of the Midwest where strong deep-layer wind shear and
elevated buoyancy may maintain convective intensity through the
overnight hours.

...Southern Plains...
Persistent west/southwesterly mid-level flow will favor steep (8-9
C/km) lapse rate advection eastward over the southern Plains through
the next 48 hours. Despite dry conditions to the west of the
dryline, strong diurnal heating coupled with steep lapse rates
should yield deeply-mixed, and nearly uninhibited, profiles by late
afternoon. Although buoyancy values will be modest, high-based
convection over a very deeply mixed boundary layer may support
strong to severe downburst winds. Recent HREF/REFS solutions hint
that severe winds associated with high-based convection may develop
as far west as west as the OK/TX Panhandles, though considerable
spread is noted among deterministic solutions. However, a westward
expansion of the 5% wind/Marginal contour was made to account for
this potential.

To the east of the dryline, strong capping at the base of the EML
will likely limit storm coverage. However, a few recent CAM
solutions hint that ascent along the dryline may be sufficient for
isolated convection by late afternoon/early evening. 30 knot
mid-level flow over the warm sector will support organization of any
deep convection that can become sustained, including the potential
for a supercell or two capable of large hail.

..Moore.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150558
SWODY2
SPC AC 150556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon
and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds
across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A trough is expected to begin to deepen across the western US as
strengthening mid-level flow moves southward from the northern
Pacific Friday and Saturday. Downstream across the central US,
upper-level westerly flow will strengthen across the
central/northern Rockies with strengthening lee troughing across the
Plains. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and central
Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the Plains,
bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a diffuse warm
frontal zone. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across
portions of the central high Plains near a developing surface low
and along the warm front, with additional thunderstorms possible
along the dryline from eastern Kansas to western Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms will also be likely across portions of the lower to
mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains...
As a short-wave trough moves across the central Plains late Saturday
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
deepening surface low and the warm front by the afternoon across
eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. A broad warm sector will
be in place across much of the central Plains, with low to mid 60s
dew points reaching as far north as southern Nebraska. MLCAPE around
2000-2500 J/kg will be common by the afternoon. Initially, strong
deep layer shear and largely linear hodographs will support
potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado. As the low-level jet strengthens into
the evening, low-level shear will increase but storm mode will also
likely shift to become more linear, with broken clusters/bowing
segments likely. A few of the mid-range hi-res CAMs depict a
stronger bowing segment moving across southern Nebraska into the
evening in concert with the increasing of the low-level jet. This
may present a more focused corridor of significant wind potential.
Confidence at this time in the exact location of this remains low.
Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends
align.

...Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas...
Much of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas near the dryline will
remain capped at the base of the EML. Strong daytime heating and
favorable residence time within the dryline circulation may promote
an isolated supercell or two with potential for large to very large
hail and damaging winds by the late afternoon. Signal for
development is most favorable near the Red River in southern
Oklahoma where CAM guidance suggests potential and HREF calibrated
thunder probabilities are highest.

...Midwest/OH Valleys...
A leading mid-level shortwave trough with an enhanced belt of 50 kts
winds aloft will promote widely scattered thunderstorm development
into the mid- to upper Missouri Valley Saturday afternoon. MUCAPE
values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep
convection, and effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the
warm frontal zone may allow for organized convection with an
attendant threat for damaging wind.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151729
SWODY2
SPC AC 151727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon
and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds
across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains to the OH Valley...
Amplification of the pattern will occur this weekend as a midlevel
trough digs south-southeastward over the northern Rockies/Great
Basin, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected in the vicinity of
southeast CO. Within the warm sector of the cyclone, an influx of
mid-upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will persist from OK/KS into
the lower MO Valley and the OH Valley. Remnants of D1 convection
could be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of MO/IL,
with the possibility of an MCV moving eastward during the day across
the OH Valley. Isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible
with loosely organized clusters during the day into the OH Valley.
Isolated severe storms will also be possible during the afternoon
along the outflow-reinforced front across northern MO.

The primary severe threat is expected to increase Saturday
afternoon/evening, starting in northeast CO and spreading eastward
into NE and adjacent areas of northwest KS. Upslope flow north of
the lee cyclone and westward advection of low-level moisture beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates will result in moderate-large buoyancy
near the warm front. Storm initiation is probable by mid-late
afternoon in northeast CO, and storms will subsequently spread
eastward toward southwest NE/northwest KS. Wind profiles with long
hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing very large
hail (up to 3 inches in diameter). Low-level shear and moisture
will become sufficient for a few tornadoes as the storms move
farther east toward the CO/KS/NE border region. Upscale growth into
a cluster/MCS will also be possible Saturday evening, with an
increase in the potential for severe outflow gusts of 65-80 mph.

Farther south, thunderstorm development along the dryline is more
questionable given a warm elevated mixed layer and (at best) weak
forcing for ascent. Still, hot temperatures/deep mixing could
support isolated, high-based storms with the conditional threat for
large hail and strong outflow gusts.

..Thompson.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160602
SWODY2
SPC AC 160601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale
storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough currently across the Pacific Northwest will
deepen D2/Sunday, moving across Great Basin into the Four Corners
into early D3/Monday. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period across portions of northern Nebraska into
Iowa. Westerly flow will overspread the central/northern Plains as a
lead shortwave moves across western Kansas into Nebraska through the
day before shifting into the Upper Midwest. A surface cyclone will
deepen across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strong moist
southerly flow and mid 60s dew points extending across much of the
central and southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected by
the afternoon from a stationary boundary/warm front across central
Nebraska southward to the dryline across central Kansas and perhaps
as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.

...NE to MN...
Strong daytime heating and destabilization should occur behind
morning convection across Nebraska into Iowa through broken cloud
cover. Better clearing will be possible across
southeastern/south-central Nebraska where fewer clouds will be
present. Overall, a broad corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg
and strong deep layer shear should extend across southern Nebraska
into western Iowa just south of the warm front. Strengthening
southerly 700-850 mb flow is expected through the afternoon, with a
low-level jet around 40-50 kts across central Kansas into eastern
Nebraska. By the afternoon, guidance suggests that supercells may
develop near the stationary front/warm front in eastern Nebraska.
Given the environment, these will be capable of large to very large
hail (some 2-3 inches), damaging wind, and a few tornadoes (some
strong). Through time, convection will likely cluster and grow
upscale with a damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday night.

...Western KS to TX Panhandles...
Forcing for ascent will be weaker with southern extent into western Kansas/western Oklahoma near the dryline. Soundings across these
regions also indicate capping at the base of the EML, which may be
difficult to overcome. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may
develop along the dryline as the low-level jet increases through the
evening. These will pose a risk for large to very large hail and
damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161735
SWODY2
SPC AC 161734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one
or more linear bands of storms leads to an increase in the wind
damage risk.

...Synopsis...

A strong upper trough will dig across the western U.S. and pivot
east toward the Rockies/Four Corners vicinity on Sunday into early
Monday. Meanwhile, an early day upper shortwave impulse is expected
to be located over MN/IA. This feature will lift northeast across
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through Saturday evening. Enhanced
southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread the central High
Plains to the Upper Midwest while mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
spread north across portions of the southern/central Plains to the
Mid-MO/MS Valley and as far north as southern MN/WI.

At the surface, a lee low will deepen across southeast CO into
western KS. A sharp dryline is expected to extend southward across
west-central KS into far western OK/TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will
extend from eastern SD/central NE into northeast CO by afternoon,
while a warm front extends west to east across southern MN/WI and
into Lower MI. These boundaries will be focus for severe
thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.

...Northeast CO into NE/SD/MN/IA...

A volatile environment is expected to develop Sunday afternoon,
particularly across parts of NE/SD/MN/IA. Initial thunderstorm
development is expected across northeast CO into southwest NE within
an upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front.
Low-level capping and weaker boundary layer moisture is expected
across this area. However, even elevated convection atop the
cooler/drier boundary layer will pose a risk for large to very large
hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and
elongated/straight hodographs.

With time, additional convection is expected to develop further east
within the warm sector across parts of eastern NE and southeast SD
near the triple point and on the nose of the dry slot as a subtle
lead shortwave impulse overspreads the region. While some morning
cloudiness and showers could be ongoing across parts of the area
this activity is expected to quickly shift northeast and allow for
clearing. As a result,stronger heating of the moistening airmass
will result in a narrow corridor of strong destabilization (MLCAPE
2500-3500 J/kg). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind
profiles, with effective shear greater than 40 kt across the region.
Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height,
will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved
low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells
will be narrow, partly due to capping and modest large-scale ascent
and partly due to the advancing cold front resulting in upscale
growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing
strong tornadoes and large to very large hail across northeast
NE/far southeast SD/southwest MN and northwest IA.

With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop
near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level
jet increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind
gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish
with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as
instability weakens and capping increases.

...KS/OK vicinity...

A more conditional risk is expected across KS into the southern
Plains vicinity. Capping and weak large-scale ascent will likely
inhibit convection. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment will reside along the surface dryline from
west-central KS into western OK and eastern parts of the TX
Panhandle toward western north TX. Hot conditions behind the dryline
and moderate low-level convergence, particularly across the
northwest OK vicinity, may support sufficient mixing/deeper dryline circulations such that a few storms develop. If these storms
develop, they will likely be higher based. Given very steep low to
midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell wind
profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will
be possible. Any storms that develop may struggle to move off the
dryline, and the corridor for severe potential will likely remain
confined.

...Lower MI...

Isolated thunderstorm are possible Sunday afternoon as a warm front
lifts northward and a weak upper shortwave impulse overspreads the
region. Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast as low-level
moisture increases beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. While
low-level winds will be light, vertically veering wind profiles and
increasing southwesterly mid/upper level flow will support organized
updrafts. Isolated gusty winds or small hail could occur with any
surface-based storms that occur into the evening hours.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170602
SWODY2
SPC AC 170600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will
likely occur across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a mid-level trough will deepen and lift out of the Four
Corners into the central Plains as a belt of enhanced westerly flow
moves within the mean flow. As this westerly flow overspreads the
Rockies, deepening of a surface cyclone across eastern Colorado is
expected, with strengthening of southerly surface flow across the southern/central Plains. Convection is likely to be ongoing in the
vicinity of a lead shortwave across portions of Iowa into Wisconsin
at the start of the D2/Monday period.

A front will extend from the surface low in eastern Colorado
northward across southeast NE/IA/WI. A surface dryline will be
located across central Kansas extending southward into western
Oklahoma and southwestern Texas. Mid 60s to 70s dew points will be
common east of the dryline and northward ahead of the cold front
into the Great Lakes. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the cold front southward to the dryline by the
afternoon. A corridor of enhanced severe potential will exist across
central KS/southeastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.

...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO...
Near the triple point of the surface low/dryline/cold front across
central Kansas, a more favorable corridor of severe potential will
exist Monday afternoon. Morning cloud cover should erode across
central Kansas by the afternoon allowing for strong daytime heating
and warming. Temperatures ahead of the dryline will approach the mid
to upper 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. This will
yield and axis of moderate to strong MLCAPE around 3500-4500 J/kg
extending from central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. MLCIN will
erode through the afternoon by around 18-20z with initiation
expected along the dryline and cold front to the north by around
20-21z. Forecast soundings indicate favorable kinematics to support
organized supercells, given deep layer shear around 40-50 kts.
Initial supercells will be capable of large to giant hail (2-4+
inch) given steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Hail probabilities were increased with this outlook to support this
potential.

The southerly low-level jet is progged to increase as large scale
ascent spreads eastward through the afternoon, peaking around 40-50
kts by the 00-03z across northern OK into central KS. Strengthening
flow in the 850-700 mb layer will elongate low-level hodographs with
broad clockwise curvature in the 0-2 km layer and rapidly increasing
low-level SRH. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH will approach
250-300 m2/s2 across portions of central/eastern KS. This in
combination with the volatile thermodynamic environment will support
an increase in tornado potential through the evening. Should
discrete supercells be maintained, strong to intense tornadoes will
be possible primarily from central to northeastern KS into
southeastern NE. Given southwesterly deep layer shear is oriented
somewhat parallel to the southwest to northeast cold front, storms
near the front may cluster and grow upscale. Better potential exists
for a more semi-discrete supercell across central Kansas ahead of
the dryline. A few HREF members do support potential for this
scenario, with long UH tracks across KS into southern Nebraska.
Tornado probabilities were increased from east-central KS into
southeastern NE/southern IA/northwestern MS.

...Central IA into portions of IL/KY/WI/IN/Lower MI...
Elevated thunderstorm activity will be likely at the beginning of
the period across portions of Iowa/Wisconsin. This will pose some
risk for a few instances of severe hail. Guidance suggests that
recovery will occur by the afternoon across this region with
thunderstorms redeveloping along the cold front and re-intensifying
of downstream convection the into the afternoon. Initial morning
convection may pose some wind/hail risk into IL/IN/western KY.
Additional development by the evening along the cold front to the
north will pose some wind/hail risk across portions of the upper
Midwest.

...OK/TX...
A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX.
Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer
flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still
sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large
to very large hail and perhaps a tornado will exist.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171732
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of very large hail and
strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas into
southeast Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough, now approaching the northern Great
Basin, will move to near the Four Corners by Monday morning and then
eject northeastward over northwest KS/NE during the afternoon and to
the upper MS Valley by early Tuesday. This path will be along and
just northwest of a stalled baroclinic zone from the central Plains
into the upper MS Valley, such that the primary height falls and
forcing for ascent will brush the northwest side of the surface warm
sector from KS to IA. A remnant lee cyclone will persist through
the afternoon near the southwest KS/OK Panhandle border, prior to a
surge of the cold front in the immediate wake of the midlevel
trough. Downstream from the ejecting trough, surface cyclogenesis
is expected Monday night from IA into WI along a stalled front.

...KS to IA...
There are a few questions surrounding the forecast for Monday
afternoon/night. The northeast extent of the unstable warm sector
will depend on the persistence of rain-cooled air with morning
convection across IA/northern MO/northwest IL. This convection and
an associated MCV could continue eastward through the day across central/northern IL, northern IN, northwest OH and Lower MI with the
potential for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail. The
west edge of the remnant cold pool should modify by
afternoon/evening from the MO/KS/NE border area into IA, prior to
thunderstorm development along the stalled front (and immediately in
advance of glancing influence of the ejecting midlevel trough)
21-00z from central KS into southeast NE and western IA.

Rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints 68-72 F) is
spreading northward now from TX to OK and will be established in the
warm sector Monday. The moisture will reside beneath an elevated
mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates and will combine with
daytime heating to drive MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg. Mass response to
the ejecting wave and the typical evening ramp up of a low-level jet
will result in favorable wind profiles/hodographs for supercells
capable of producing strong-intense tornadoes and very large hail.
The duration of a semi-discrete storm mode is another question,
given the parallel orientation of the stalled front and the
deep-layer shear vectors, in combination with focused ascent. Thus,
the strong tornado threat will peak prior to upscale growth into
line segments along the front, with severe outflow gusts and
embedded circulations becoming the main concerns into Monday night.

...OK/northwest TX...
Storm development along the dryline to the south in OK/northwest TX
is more uncertain given little forcing for ascent. If storms do
form, there will be a conditional threat for tornadoes and very
large hail. A consistent forecast weakness in the flow above 500 mb
by late afternoon/evening does not appear favorable for particularly
long-lived storms if they do form. The more probable scenario
remains a back-building line of storms along the cold front with
occasional hail/wind Monday night.

..Thompson.. 05/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180556
SWODY2
SPC AC 180554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold
front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the
southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will lift across the Great Lakes Region on
D2/Tuesday with a surface low moving east across southern Ontario
and Quebec. A trailing cold front will be located from the Great
Lakes south into the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
Southern Plains. Convection will likely be ongoing across this
boundary at the beginning of the D2/Tuesday period.

...Great Lakes Vicinity to the Lower Ohio Valley...
Some convection may be ongoing across the cold front towards the
beginning of the D2 period, with additional development likely by
the afternoon along the eastward shifting cold front. Enhanced
mid-level flow aloft and weak to moderate instability will support
organized storms with potential for damaging winds and isolated
large hail. Additional afternoon thunderstorm development may extend
into the Northeast with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to Southern Plains...
Convection will be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid
Mississippi Valley driven by the cold front and potential cold pool propagation. These boundaries will be the focus of
re-intensification of convection in the afternoon. Mid-level flow
aloft will be weaker across the region but sufficient shear for
organization should remain in place. A plume of more favorable
moderate to strong instability will be available across
central/northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. With afternoon
development, steep low to mid level lapse rates and moderate
instability will support potential for a few large hail reports.
With time, upscale growth will support a downstream damaging wind
risk.

..Thornton.. 05/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181722
SWODY2
SPC AC 181720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold
front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the
southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the primary threats.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the northern Plains into upper MS Valley
Tuesday morning will translate northeast into Ontario with an
associated belt of strong mid-level flow overspreading the Great
Lakes. The stronger mid-level winds will extend southwest into the
central High Plains, downstream from a positively tilted trough
moving through the Great Basin and lower CO Valley.

At the surface, low pressure associated with northern Plains
disturbance will develop from the upper Great Lakes through
southeast Ontario into Quebec. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will
move through the Great Lakes and OH Valley, with the trailing
extension of the boundary advancing through the mid MS Valley and
southern Plains. The cold front and any preceding outflow boundaries
associated with early-day convection will serve as the main foci for
diurnally enhanced strong to severe storm development.


...Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and New England...

A southwesterly low-level jet will sustain a moist boundary layer
across the pre-frontal warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to
perhaps low 70s in the OH Valley. The moisture will combine with
daytime heating to support MLCAPE ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg across
the mid/lower Great Lakes into New England, with as high as
2000-3000 J/kg forecast in the OH Valley. A broad zone of low-level
warm advection coupled with the glancing influence of the Ontario
short-wave trough are expected to support a gradual increase in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and
ahead of the synoptic cold front.

The strongest low/mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer shear is
forecast to reside across the Great Lakes and northern New England,
where transient bowing and/or supercell structures appear possible.
Weaker shear with southward extent into the OH Valley will be
supportive of multicell clusters. Damaging wind gusts appear to be
the primary hazard in both regimes, though isolated occurrences of
marginally severe hail are also possible.


...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains...

Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning along or
ahead of the cold front from the Ozarks into OK. Daytime heating of
the downstream air mass coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the
60s to low 70s and steepening mid-level lapse rates with
southwestward extent will support moderate to strong afternoon
instability with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg. The 12z models suggest
that a subset of the early-day storms will intensify by afternoon
across the Ozark Plateau with additional thunderstorm development
anticipated along the synoptic cold front and preceding convective
outflow boundaries from the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains.
There is some model signal that one or multiple, weak disturbances
will translate from the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau during
the day, which will aid in the diurnally enhanced storm development.


As alluded to in the synopsis, the strongest mid-level flow and
associated vertical shear is expected remain confined to the
post-frontal air mass. The exception will be across parts of the TX
Permian Basin into the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, where easterly
low-level winds ahead of front will augment modest mid-level flow to
support 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. As such, predominant
convective modes will be multicell clusters and line segments
capable of damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Large hail
potential (some hailstones in excess of 2") increases with
southwestward extent into TX owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates
and the potential for supercell storm modes, given the stronger
vertical shear.

..Mead.. 05/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190549
SWODY2
SPC AC 190548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will
be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A trough will continue to lift northward into Canada D2/Wednesday,
with a cold front extending from the Northeast southward across the
southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward
into southwestern Texas and eastern New Mexico. Scattered strong to
severe storms are expected near the front in the mid Atlantic and
near the high terrain of western Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered showers and storms are expected along the cold front
Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The
downstream air mass will include a narrow plume of weak to moderate instability. Though deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will
be marginal, steep low level lapse rates will support a few
instances of strong to severe winds.

...Southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the high terrain within the upslope flow regime across western
Texas and eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings
depict sufficient deep layer shear to support supercells. Moderate
to strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
support potential for large hail and a few occurrences of severe
winds.

..Thornton.. 05/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191719
SWODY2
SPC AC 191718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected Wednesday
afternoon into night across portions of southwest Texas into eastern
New Mexico. Large hail --potentially in excess of two inches-- will
be the predominant severe-weather hazard. Isolated occurrences of
severe wind and/or marginally severe hail are expected Wednesday
afternoon into early evening from the Cumberland Plateau into
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude short-wave trough will move through the base of an
eastern Canada trough, with a belt of strong mid/upper-level winds overspreading New England. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough initially
near the Four Corners will weaken Wednesday while moving into
confluent flow over the central High Plains. There is some model
signal for a lower-latitude impulse to move through northern Mexico
into NM and western TX Wednesday afternoon and evening.

In the low levels, a cold front will move south through New England
and the Mid-Atlantic with the western extension of the boundary
weakening through the forecast period across TX.


...Eastern New Mexico into southwest Texas and the Edwards
Plateau...

Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s will combine with
steep mid-level lapse rates to yield a moderately unstable air mass
by afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg across
portions of southwest TX into the Edwards Plateau. Instability is
expected to decrease with northward extent in the immediate lee of
the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Sangre De Cristo mountains, due to
limited boundary-layer moisture content.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated
by mid/late afternoon along favored terrain, with initiation
potentially being aided by the mid-level disturbance mentioned in
the synopsis. A slight enhancement of the mid-level flow is forecast
across the area in association with the disturbance, which will
contribute to 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear across the
instability axis. As such, supercell storm modes appear likely,
especially across southwest TX where the strongest instability is
expected to reside. Large hail potentially in excess of 2" will be
the predominant hazard with the afternoon and early evening storms.
A number of the 12z models suggest that the daytime storms will grow
upscale into an MCS across portions of the Permian Basin and Concho
Valley into Edwards Plateau Wednesday evening into night with a risk
for locally damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Given the above considerations, a level 2/Slight Risk has been added
where confidence is highest in longer-lived supercell potential.


...Cumberland Plateau into Mid-Atlantic and southern New England...

A hot and a moist air mass is forecast to develop ahead of the front
Wednesday afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg with
minimal capping. Convergence along the front along with terrain
influences are expected to foster a gradual increase in thunderstorm
coverage and intensity Wednesday afternoon from northern parts of
the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England. The strongest vertical shear is expected to reside to the
north of the surface warm sector, which coupled with poor mid-level
lapse rates, should limit the potential for organized storm modes.
Nonetheless, model soundings indicate the presence of 1.0-1.5 km
deep, well-mixed boundary-layers, which will be supportive of
locally damaging downburst winds through the afternoon into early
evening. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are also
possible.

..Mead.. 05/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200554
SWODY2
SPC AC 200552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and
southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave will translate eastward across the central
Rockies on D2/Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will move
through the northern High Plains while a secondary stationary front
remains in place from the Carolinas through the Tennessee Valley
into Ozark Plateau. A few strong to severe storms capable of large
hail and damaging wind will be possible near the front range in
Colorado.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Upslope flow into eastern Colorado will combine with modest
upper-level forcing for ascent to allow for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms near the high terrain. Steep lapse rates,
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear around 30-35 kts from
south of I-70 will allow for a few better organized cells capable of
large hail and damaging wind. This threat will decrease with eastern
extent into KS/OK where strengthening MLCIN will temper the severe
threat downstream.

Additional areas of scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
across southern Oklahoma into northern/central Texas and across far
western Texas in the afternoon. Generally weak deep layer shear
should limit the severe risk. A few instances of gusty winds and
small hail will be possible.

...Elsewhere...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains near the upper-low. Weak moisture
and limited instability will likely keep storms sub-severe. Widely
scattered thunderstorms will also be likely south of the stationary
front from the Carolinas into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys.
While marginal instability will be in place, weak deep layer shear
profiles will lead to more disorganized storms and limit the overall
severe threat.

..Thornton.. 05/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201726
SWODY2
SPC AC 201724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are expected to develop across
eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be
the predominant hazard, with locally severe wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two also possible.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and associated jet streak initially over the
northern Rockies Thursday morning will progress southeast into the
central Rockies by Thursday night. Farther to the south, a
short-wave trough will translate from the southern Plains into lower
MS Valley.

At the surface, a weak surface low is expected to develop from
southeast WY into western SD by Thursday evening, along a front
advancing through the northern High Plains. A lee trough will deepen
from the vicinity of low south through eastern parts of CO and NM.
Elsewhere, a cold front will push south from VA into the Carolinas
with the western extension of that boundary lifting north through
the lower MS Valley Thursday night in response to weak cyclogenesis
in that area.


...Central High Plains...

While low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, the presence
of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE of
750-1000+ J/kg during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.
Low-level upslope flow will be augmented by increased forcing for
ascent downstream from the approaching short-wave trough to foster
widely scattered thunderstorm development along favored terrain by
mid to late afternoon.

Strengthening mid-level flow coupled with the southeasterly
low-level wind component will yield effective bulk shear of 40-50
kt, supportive of supercell storm modes with the predominant hazard
being large hail. A brief tornado or two is possible, owing to
strengthening low-level shear by early evening. however, the
marginal moisture content is expected to limit a more robust threat.


...Western Dakotas...

At least a marginally unstable air mass is expected to develop ahead
of the front, supporting widely scattered thunderstorm development
by afternoon. Stronger vertical shear is expected to reside to the
south of the area, limiting the potential for organized storm modes. Nonetheless, locally strong wind gusts and sub-severe hail appear
possible with the strongest storms.


...West Texas...

There is some model signal that a broken band of thunderstorms may
evolve near the NM/TX state line by late afternoon or evening,
amidst a steep lapse rate environment. Some potential will exist for
locally strong wind gusts and/or hail with that activity.


...Eastern Oklahoma into Northeast Texas...

The 12z convection-allowing models indicate a broader-scale complex
of storms evolving across the area Thursday. Weak vertical shear and
poor lapses are expected to limit the potential for storm
organization. However, the presence of a moist and moderately
unstable air mass will support briefly vigorous up/downdrafts
capable of locally strong wind gusts.


...Deep South Texas...

Remnants of overnight storms may be ongoing Thursday morning with
another round of thunderstorms potentially moving through the area
late Thursday night into Friday morning. Some potential will exist
for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail.


...Lower MS Valley...

The models suggest that low-level shear will strengthen late
Thursday night into Friday morning in response to weak cyclogenesis
over the area. Lapse rates will be poor, limiting instability.
However, given the presence of a moist/low-lcl boundary layer, some
potential for low-level updraft rotation will exist with any deeper
convective elements, with a non-zero risk for a brief tornado.


...Southern VA into the Carolinas....

A hot, well-mixed boundary layer is forecast ahead of the front
Thursday afternoon. However, forecast soundings indicate warm
mid-level temperatures (500 mb and above), which are expected to
limit overall parcel buoyancy. Nonetheless, a few locally strong
wind gusts appear possible with storms developing along and ahead of
the boundary.

..Mead.. 05/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210552
SWODY2
SPC AC 210550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions
of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging
wind.

...Synopsis...
Two weak shortwaves, with one wave in central Plains and a secondary
wave into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, are forecast within the
broader Northern Rockies trough through afternoon on D2/Friday. A
surface low will be located across eastern New Mexico/southeastern
Colorado with a front lifting northward into Kansas and a dryline
extending southward into southwestern Texas. Another surface low
will develop across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with a warm
front lifting northward across Kentucky. These features will be the
focus for scattered thunderstorm development in both regions by the afternoon/evening.

...Southern and Central Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the Cap Rock
near the dryline in Texas and back into eastern New Mexico along the
high terrain Friday afternoon and evening. Steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will be in place across much of the region from eastern
New Mexico into western Texas. Dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s
and daytime heating will yield moderate instability amid deep layer
shear around 30-40 kts. This will promote initial supercells across
the high terrain with potential for additional multi-cell clusters
through time. These may grow upscale into an MCS into western
Oklahoma by the evening. The primary risk will be for large hail
before the damaging wind risk increases into the evening.
A few additional strong thunderstorms may extend into portions of
southern Kansas. The thermodynamic environment becomes less
favorable with northern extent due to widespread cloud cover and
morning precipitation. However, increasing mid-level flow and shear
may allow for a few organized cells with potential for large hail
and strong to severe wind further north.

...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys...
A warm front will lift across northern Tennessee into Kentucky
through the afternoon on Friday, with 60-70s dew points streaming
northward ahead of the approaching mid-level wave. Modest height
falls are expected across western Kentucky into the Ohio Valley,
with an increase in 850-700 mb flow. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected overnight into Friday morning. An increase in this
activity can be expected as a vorticity maxima and increasing large
scale ascent into the afternoon occurs. Though instability will be
marginal, guidance does suggest a plume of higher theta-e air may
advect into western/central Kentucky by the afternoon. In addition,
guidance suggests a few transient supercells will be possible with
potential for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211722
SWODY2
SPC AC 211720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible across western parts of Texas and Oklahoma. An isolated
hail threat may extend into central Kansas, with sporadic
occurrences of damaging wind and perhaps a few brief tornadoes from
the central Gulf Coast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the northern and central High Plains Friday
morning will become negatively tilted while translating through the
upper MS Valley, ahead of a weaker, upstream disturbance moving
through the central Rockies into central High Plains. Meanwhile, a
series of lower-latitude disturbances will progress from the
southern Plains and lower MS Valley into the TN and OH Valleys.

At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from SD into
northwest MN with a trailing cold front advancing east/southeast
through the central Plains, and south into the southern High Plains
where it will link with a secondary low pressure. A dryline is
expected to sharpen through the afternoon from the intersection of
the cold front in the vicinity of the TX South Plains into the
Edwards Plateau. Elsewhere, a surface low is forecast to develop
from western TN into IN/OH with an associated warm front lifting
north into the OH Valley.


...Central and Southern Plains...

An axis of 50s to low 60s dewpoints is expected to reside ahead of
the cold front and dryline, with the steepest mid-level lapse rates
confined to the southern High Plains portion of the warm sector.
Resultant MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg is forecast over western TX into
the southern Panhandle, with instability decreasing with
northeastward extent across KS and NE.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop early in the day
along the front in NE with additional storms forming southwestward
along the boundary during the afternoon from central KS into the
southern TX Panhandle or TX South Plains, with more isolated
development possible south along the dryline. Additional storms are
possible in the immediate post-frontal environment in northeast NE.

The most favorable overlap of moderate instability and around 30 kt
of deep-layer shear is expected to reside over parts of western TX
and the Panhandle where the potential will exist for supercell storm
modes with the predominant hazard being large hail. Storms may tend
to grow upscale into an MCS with a wind and hail threat spreading
into parts of western OK and northwest TX Friday evening.

Lesser-organized multicell structures appear possible from central
KS into southeast NE. The best potential for marginally severe hail
is expected over central KS where comparably (to NE) stronger
instability will develop.


...Central Gulf Coast and Southeast into Ohio Valley...

Some enhancement of the mid-level wind field will occur in
association with the disturbances mentioned in the synopsis. Of
potentially greater importance to severe-weather potential is the
presence of a 25-40 kt low-level jet, which will persist through the
day from the central Gulf Coast north toward the OH River amidst a
moist and marginally to moderately unstable air mass with afternoon
MLCAPE of 500-1500+ J/kg.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected within the
northward-expanding warm sector, with the strongest instability
confined to cloud-free areas where greater daytime heating can
occur. Embedded strong to severe storms will be most probable in
those areas, and given the presence of 30-35 kt deep-layer shear,
some potential for storm organization will exist, despite the
existence of poor mid-level lapse rates. A corridor of stronger
low-level shear (i.e., effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2) is forecast
from eastern MS and western AL through middle TN into OH, along the
low-level jet axis, where a few brief tornadoes appear possible.
Otherwise, locally damaging downburst winds appear to be the primary
hazard.

..Mead.. 05/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from
the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and
southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe
thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D2/Saturday
as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing
cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern
Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley
and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible
across portions of the southern Plains and the southeastern US.

...TX/OK Panhandles...
Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock
and into the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico will produce
scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. These are
progged to move eastward downstream across the Panhandles into
portions of western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings suggest a plume of
steep to low mid-level lapse rates will still reside across the
OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to 60s dew points and moderate
instability. Shear profiles will be marginal, with deep layer shear
around 25-30 kts. Nonetheless, a few more organized storms may
produce strong to severe wind and instances of severe hail.

...Middle Texas Coast...
Thunderstorm activity is expected to form near the Edwards Plateau
on Saturday afternoon and move south and east towards the middle
Texas coast. Ahead of this, moderate to strong afternoon instability
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place across
portions of southern Texas. Some enhancement of
deep-layer shear is forecast across south TX, which will may provide opportunity for cold pool organization and damaging wind.

...Central/Southern Georgia...
A weak shortwave will move across Georgia Saturday afternoon as
widely scattered thunderstorm development occurs. Most guidance
suggests deep layer shear around 30-40 kts which may allow for a few
more organized cells. These may produce a few instances of strong to
severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221730
SWODY2
SPC AC 221728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS
OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible on
Saturday from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles and southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional
severe thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia
and parts of the Upper Ohio Valley.

...Southern High Plains...
Moderate mid-level flow across the central Rockies will persist in
the wake of a shortwave trough lifting into the northern Plains.
Flow will generally weaken with southern extent into the High
Plains. Even so, moist southeasterly winds into the higher terrain
will promote effective shear around 35 kt. The main question will be
the quality of the moisture with convection expected to impact parts
of the region on Friday evening into the overnight. The most likely
scenario is that isolated storm development occur within the Raton
Mesa and evolves eastward/southeastward. Storms would be initially
supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Shear does weaken
to the east so some clustering is possible as outflow interact.
Another possibility, though more uncertain, is that convection could
develop farther southeast along a remnant outflow boundary, but this
activity would likely move into an environment with weaker shear
quickly.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
A shortwave trough now in the Mid-South will lift northeast into the
Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Saturday. A modest surface low, though
slowly weakening with time, will pull upper 60s F dewpoints into
parts of the region. Morning precipitation is expected to clear out
and allow for at least filtered surface heating. The enhanced 850 mb
winds, proximity to the warm front, and modest effective shear
(around 30 kt) could potentially support a stronger storm or two.
Though conditional, a brief tornado would be possible in this
environment.

...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak shortwave trough will move into Georgia. Low 70s F dewpoints
and temperatures in the 80s F will support 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous storms
appear possible near the shortwave as well as along the wedge front
in South Carolina. Shear will be weak, but a few water-loaded
downbursts may produce damaging winds.

...Hill Country/South Texas/Middle Texas Coast...
A shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will approach the
region during the afternoon/early evening. A very moist (70+
dewpoints) airmass will be in place. Isolated to widely scattered
convection will be possible from the Rio Grande vicinity and perhaps
along the Gulf Breeze front. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support the threat of large hail and
severe winds.

..Wendt.. 05/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230555
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio
Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska
into southwest Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely south of a
stationary front extending from the southern Plains into the lower
Ohio Valley. A few additional thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern High Plains within the easterly upslope regime. A weak
shortwave trough will move across the central/northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest on D2/Sunday, which may be a focus of thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska into Minnesota. Large hail
and damaging wind will be the primary threat with these storms.

...Nebraska into Minnesota...
A plume of mid 50s to 60s dew points will advect northward into
portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota Sunday
afternoon amid increasing southerly flow across the central/northern
Plains. A weak shortwave will move eastward across this area with
thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon. Forecast soundings
suggest that deep layer shear will be sufficient to support
supercells, with around 40 kts in the 0-6 km layer. In addition to
the increase in moisture, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
also overspread the area. This, in combination with strong deep
layer shear, will favor potential for large hail (isolated very
large hail up to 2" in diameter). Well mixed profiles may also
support a few instances of strong to severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231727
SWODY2
SPC AC 231725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KS
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHWEST
IA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest, mainly Sunday afternoon and
evening. Isolated large to very large hail and localized severe
gusts will be possible.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Upper Midwest
will move over the Great Lakes region on Sunday. Broad southerly
flow between a surface ridge near the mid MS Valley and a lee trough
over the High Plains will result in some moisture return into parts
of the central Plains and Upper Midwest, though the magnitude of
this moisture return remains somewhat uncertain. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and relatively cool midlevel temperatures atop the
returning moisture will result in moderate to locally strong
destabilization by late afternoon.

Broad midlevel height rises are expected across the region, in the
wake of the departing shortwave trough. However, guidance suggests
that one or more weak midlevel vorticity maxima may aid in at least
isolated diurnal thunderstorm development near a weak surface
trough/dryline from central NE into southeast SD/southwest MN.
Deep-layer flow will remain generally modest, but veering wind
profiles and 30-40 kt of effective shear will conditionally support
supercells, if surface-based development can be sustained. Large to
very large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany any
supercell development during the afternoon and evening.

A Level 2/Slight Risk upgrade was considered for parts of the
region, but due to uncertainties regarding low-level moisture and
storm coverage, have opted to maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk, with
a conditional area highlighting very large hail potential, should
any sustained supercells develop.

...Southeast/southern Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorm development is again expected across the
region, within a moist and uncapped environment. A belt of 20-30 kt
midlevel flow to the east of the mid/upper trough across TX will
provide modest deep-layer shear, but weak midlevel lapse rates will
tend to limit updraft intensity. Locally damaging wind cannot be
ruled out with convection across the region, but the
organized-severe threat currently appears too limited and nebulous
to include probabilities at this time. If a robust MCV emerges from
extensive convection near the Gulf Coast, then somewhat more
organized severe potential could evolve through the day.

...LA Gulf Coast/Lower MS Valley vicinity...
Widespread convection is expected to persist from D1/Saturday into
D2/Sunday across parts of the LA Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley, as
the nearly stationary mid/upper trough over TX interacts with rich
moisture. Generally weak flow and lapse rates are currently expected
to limit the organized-severe threat. Any more organized potential
for a brief tornado or locally damaging wind would likely be
contingent on MCV development, but this scenario remains highly
uncertain at this time.

...Lower OH Valley/Allegheny Plateau...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Ohio
Valley and Allegheny Plateau during the afternoon, in association
with the mid/upper trough moving across the Great Lakes region.
Modest midlevel flow will overspread the region and isolated strong
storms will be possible, but weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy
are expected to limit severe potential.

..Dean.. 05/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240547
SWODY2
SPC AC 240546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for
Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A high amplitude ridge will build in from the west across the Plains
on D2/Monday with height rises and weakening mid-level flow amid
warming surface temperatures. An upper level low will begin to
deepen and move inland across the Pacific Northwest. Widely
scattered areas of thunderstorm development can be expected from the
Southwest to the Central Plains/Upper Midwest and across the
Southeast. A few strong storms will be possible across the Plains to
the Midwest and in the Southeast.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region...
While moderate buoyancy will extend across much of the Plains into
the Midwest Monday afternoon, generally weak flow should temper the
more organized severe threat. Modest west-northwesterly flow will
overspread portions of MN/WI and Upper MI with a quick weak
mid-level wave moving through the Great Lakes trough. Generally, the
best forcing for ascent will be early with height rises expected by
the afternoon. This leads to low confidence in thunderstorm
development, though the air mass could conditionally support severe
potential.

...Southern NM into west TX...
An isolated strong storm or two could be possible from southern New
Mexico into western Texas as an embedded shortwave moves across the
Southwest. Deeply mixed profiles across New Mexico may support a
strong to severe gust. However, the deeper moisture remains
displaced to the east across western Texas.

...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected overnight
D1/Sunday into D2/Monday across the Gulf coast states. Depending on
how this evolves and where resulting MCVs occur, a corridor of
severe wind potential may be possible. For now confidence in the
placement of mesoscale features remains too low.

..Thornton.. 05/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241734
SWODY2
SPC AC 241732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MN
ARROWHEAD REGION...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...PARTS
OF NM/FAR WEST TX...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of
the Minnesota Arrowhead region, central Plains and Midwest,
Southeast, and New Mexico/Far West Texas on Monday.

...MN Arrowhead region...
While large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best amidst modest
midlevel height rises, most guidance depicts strong heating and
potential for at least isolated storm development in the vicinity of
a cold front across parts of MN Arrowhead region during the
afternoon. Deep-layer flow will be modest, but southwesterly surface
winds veering to west-northwesterly aloft will result in 30-35 kt of
effective shear, sufficient for storm organization. Relatively steep
lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will support isolated hail and
localized strong/damaging gusts, if storms can mature across this
region.

...Central Plains into southwest MN/northwest IA...
While forcing will generally be weak, strong diurnal heating may
support isolated storm development in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/confluence zone from northern NE/southern SD into northwest
IA/southwest MN. Deep-layer flow will be weak, but modest midlevel west-northwesterlies may provide sufficient deep-layer shear for
some storm organization. Favorable lapse rates and buoyancy will
support potential for isolated hail and localized damaging gusts.

...NM into Far West Texas...
Relatively widespread convection is expected on Monday across parts
of NM into Far West TX, in association with mid/upper-level trough
over the Southwest. Buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest
across NM, but generally unidirectional southerly flow within a
relatively well-mixed environment will support outflow-driven
clusters capable of localized severe gusts. Strong storms may spread
into parts of Far West TX Monday night, with a continued threat of
strong to localized severe gusts.

...Southeast...
A similar regime to previous days is expected across the Gulf
Coast/Southeast, with widespread convection expected to the east of
a persistent mid/upper-level trough over east TX. Water-loaded
downdrafts will again be capable producing localized wind damage,
with any more organized potential tied to uncertain MCV development.
A Marginal Risk has been included from the FL Panhandle into GA,
where there appears to be the greatest potential for preconvective heating/destabilization. If organized MCV development occurs, then
there may be some severe potential to the west and north of this
Marginal Risk area.

...Interior Northwest/Northern Rockies...
Thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from far eastern
OR/WA into ID/western MT/northwest WY, in advance of a vigorous
mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
Much of this activity may be relatively high-based and disorganized,
with strong outflow gusts possible. The most aggressive guidance
regarding moistening and destabilization suggests some marginal
supercell potential across northern ID and far western MT. Severe
probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of the region,
if guidance consensus trends towards a greater potential for
organized convection.

..Dean.. 05/24/2026

$$

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