ACUS11 KWNS 082150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082149=20
KSZ000-082345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Areas affected...Central into southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082149Z - 082345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a cold front may pose a
risk of strong to severe downburst winds, and perhaps large hail,
through mid to late evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and GOES IR cloud-top-temperature trends
depict several intensifying thunderstorms developing across central
KS along a cold front. With surface dewpoints in the upper 30s and
low 40s and temperatures in the upper 70s, the thermodynamic
environment is very well-mixed with surface-based LCLs estimated to
be at around 2.5 km AGL, and MLCAPE values estimated to be between
250 to 800 J/kg per recent forecast soundings and by modifying the
18 UTC DDC RAOB to regional conditions. However, effective bulk
shear are estimated to be at around 25 knots per regional VWPs and
RAP analyses. This may be sufficient for transient organization of
developing convection over the next few hours, especially if
clustering can occur along the front, including southwest of ongoing thunderstorms to the north of the Dodge City, KS area where
low-level convergence appears to be weaker, but MLCAPE may be
slightly higher and could support a strong storm or two.

Given the deeply mixed boundary layer, the predominant hazard will
likely be strong to severe downburst winds within the deeper/more
robust convection (though instances of severe hail appear possible
given marginal, but sufficient, deep-layer wind shear). Although
latest high-res guidance has struggled to capture the onset of this
activity (per recent HRRR runs), most solutions suggest any severe
risk will remain fairly localized to central to southwest KS and
should only persist through mid/late evening.

..Moore/Smith.. 04/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!74GwgP-36xK2Y6otwliDK0URwtWj9GIIVpRbPq0iw-mEF4OWOOLt1FXpHFv9tmjyahjcQUONX= Lx5r-4PO2BWqFKSV_c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 38470039 38949938 39359849 39639777 39749749 39809710
39699682 39369662 39009674 38759696 38489731 38359753
37979829 37819875 37729916 37609958 37559996 37550021
37610046 37710065 37890081 38060091 38220083 38470039=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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