• Re: European Cups SophCons 2025-2026: League Phase

    From Futbolmetrix@futbolmetrix@yahoo.com to rec.sport.soccer on Fri Jan 23 00:52:17 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

    On Mon, 19 Jan 2026 00:03:01 -0500, Futbolmetrix
    <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

    On Fri, 28 Nov 2025 12:16:24 -0500, Futbolmetrix
    <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

    On Sat, 04 Oct 2025 07:26:24 -0400, Futbolmetrix
    SophCon standings

    After the December matches


    After MD7

    UCL
    ---
    Log Brier RPS Name
    -35.087 19.525 12.008 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    -37.035 20.742 13.430 CollectiveConsciousness
    -37.462 20.868 13.671 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    -37.737 22.121 14.896 MH
    -38.554 21.616 14.423 Futbolmetrix
    -39.151 21.365 13.944 Jesus Petry
    -41.114 22.400 14.927 Werner Pichler
    -41.516 23.092 16.335 UEFA (by Futbolmetrix)
    -49.281 26.667 23.111 Agnostic

    Still the Money League.



    UEL
    ---
    Log Brier RPS Name
    -40.941 22.303 16.375 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    -43.131 23.294 17.712 CollectiveConsciousness
    -43.302 23.710 17.997 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    -44.382 23.798 18.576 Futbolmetrix
    -44.504 23.429 17.733 Jesper
    -44.927 24.143 18.847 Werner Pichler
    -45.854 24.938 19.740 Jesus Petry
    -46.634 24.856 19.381 MH
    -49.281 26.667 23.111 Agnostic
    -51.839 27.979 24.541 UEFA (by Futbolmetrix)

    Still the Nerd League



    UECL
    ----
    -37.280 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    -39.804 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    -42.603 CollectiveConsciousness
    -45.534 Werner Pichler
    -46.922 Jesus Petry
    -49.281 Agnostic
    -61.463 UEFA (by Futbolmetrix)
    -67.438 Futbolmetrix

    Even bigger nerd league. Hall of Shame for me and UEFA. Ugh.

    This one is done and dusted. Good job ClubElo

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  • From Futbolmetrix@futbolmetrix@yahoo.com to rec.sport.soccer on Fri Jan 30 11:57:12 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

    On Fri, 23 Jan 2026 00:52:17 -0500, Futbolmetrix
    <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:


    After MD7

    Group stage (or rather, league stage) final standings:


    UCL
    ----
    Log Brier RPS Name
    -37.747 21.394 13.392 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    -38.122 21.326 13.982 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    -38.558 21.918 14.305 CollectiveConsciousness
    -39.576 22.176 14.763 Futbolmetrix
    -39.677 22.574 15.498 UEFA (by Futbolmetrix)
    -40.559 24.573 16.793 MH
    -41.496 22.952 15.559 Werner Pichler
    -43.697 24.225 16.344 Jesus Petry
    -49.281 26.667 23.111 Agnostic

    TransferMarkt wins the SophCon, but ClubElo tops the Brier standings.
    Yours truly first of the humans.


    UEL
    ---
    Log Brier RPS Name
    -39.484 21.829 15.608 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    -41.706 22.727 17.065 CollectiveConsciousness
    -41.736 22.958 17.446 Futbolmetrix
    -41.974 23.297 17.491 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    -42.483 22.829 17.233 Jesper
    -42.881 23.636 18.121 MH
    -44.175 24.093 18.347 Werner Pichler
    -45.695 24.858 19.660 Jesus Petry
    -49.281 26.667 23.111 Agnostic
    -50.763 27.121 24.109 UEFA (by Futbolmetrix)

    Here a pretty clear win for ClubElo, who comes on top in all three
    categories. I'm still the top human, and I even beat TransferMarkt(!)
    Hall of Shame for UEFA!



    UECL
    ----
    Log Brier RPS Name
    -37.280 21.635 13.915 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    -39.804 22.193 15.453 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    -42.603 23.794 17.297 CollectiveConsciousness
    -45.534 25.759 18.401 Werner Pichler
    -46.922 25.440 20.793 Jesus Petry
    -49.281 26.667 23.111 Agnostic
    -61.463 29.857 26.155 UEFA (by Futbolmetrix)
    -67.438 33.601 31.794 Futbolmetrix

    Another convincing win for ClubElo. Hall of Shame for UEFA (again) and
    the top human in the UCL/UEL competitions





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  • From Futbolmetrix@futbolmetrix@yahoo.com to rec.sport.soccer on Fri Jan 30 13:31:25 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

    On Fri, 30 Jan 2026 11:57:12 -0500, Futbolmetrix
    <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:



    UECL
    ----
    Log Brier RPS Name
    -37.280 21.635 13.915 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    -39.804 22.193 15.453 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    -42.603 23.794 17.297 CollectiveConsciousness
    -45.534 25.759 18.401 Werner Pichler
    -46.922 25.440 20.793 Jesus Petry
    -49.281 26.667 23.111 Agnostic
    -61.463 29.857 26.155 UEFA (by Futbolmetrix)
    -67.438 33.601 31.794 Futbolmetrix

    Another convincing win for ClubElo. Hall of Shame for UEFA (again) and
    the top human in the UCL/UEL competitions


    VAR check! There was a mistake in how I was calculating my own score
    in the UECL SophCon. Here is the correct table:

    Log Brier RPS Name
    -37.280 21.635 13.915 ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    -39.804 22.193 15.453 TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    -42.603 23.794 17.297 CollectiveConsciousness
    -45.534 25.759 18.401 Werner Pichler
    -46.922 25.440 20.793 Jesus Petry
    -49.281 26.667 23.111 Agnostic
    -49.829 27.061 20.334 Futbolmetrix
    -61.463 29.857 26.155 UEFA (by Futbolmetrix)

    ... and it's still Hall of Shame for me :-(




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  • From Futbolmetrix@futbolmetrix@yahoo.com to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Feb 2 17:12:20 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

    On Fri, 30 Jan 2026 11:57:12 -0500, Futbolmetrix
    <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

    On Fri, 23 Jan 2026 00:52:17 -0500, Futbolmetrix
    <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

    Updated Hall of Sophistication:

    MH 15
    TransferMarkt 9
    Jesper Lauridsen 9
    Club Elo 9
    Werner Pichler 8
    Anders T 8
    Jesus Petry 7
    Futbolmetrix 7
    FiveThirtyEight 5
    Binder Dundat 5
    Jussi Uosukainen 3
    Jack C 3
    7h@ch 3
    Silver Aurora 2
    ruud 2
    Jimmy Featherstone 2
    fitbawnumbers 2
    Clement 2
    AQB 2
    Voros McCracken 1
    TransferMarkt Plus 1
    Tim Hooper 1
    Renato Guadagnolo 1
    Remiqz 1
    Red 1
    Pseudo FiveThirtyEight 1
    Pinnacle (by Futbolmetrix) 1
    MMcC 1
    Matthias Muehlich 1
    Lorenzo Carli 1
    La Violeta 1
    Konakalab 1
    Gronaldo 1
    FiveThirtyEight Minus 1
    FIFA (implemented by Futbolmetrix 1
    EuroClubIndex 1
    dopemodels 1
    Dec Tech 1
    Colin 1
    ClubElo/ClubTM 1
    Agnostic 1
    Abubakr 1


    Full Hall here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CUgpIH35Mqb9b147Rbakd_YsvdCJwSO0wvu6fXqkdX4/edit?usp=sharing





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  • From Futbolmetrix@futbolmetrix@yahoo.com to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Feb 2 17:46:22 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

    On Mon, 02 Feb 2026 17:12:20 -0500, Futbolmetrix
    <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:



    Full Hall here: >https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CUgpIH35Mqb9b147Rbakd_YsvdCJwSO0wvu6fXqkdX4/edit?usp=sharing


    I've now added a few columns so you can break down Hall of
    Sophistication entries by type of competition, round, etc.

    --- Synchronet 3.21b-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Futbolmetrix@futbolmetrix@yahoo.com to rec.sport.soccer on Tue Feb 3 11:22:48 2026
    From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

    On Mon, 02 Feb 2026 17:46:22 -0500, Futbolmetrix
    <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

    On Mon, 02 Feb 2026 17:12:20 -0500, Futbolmetrix
    <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:



    Full Hall here: >>https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CUgpIH35Mqb9b147Rbakd_YsvdCJwSO0wvu6fXqkdX4/edit?usp=sharing


    I've now added a few columns so you can break down Hall of
    Sophistication entries by type of competition, round, etc.

    Just in the European Cups, since 2017 (the first year in which both
    ClubElo and TransferMarkt became regular entrants):

    Human 15 (MH 7, Jesper 3, Werner 2, Jesus 1)
    Other model 8
    TransferMarkt 7
    Club Elo 6
    FiveThirtyEight 4
    Bookie odds 1

    MH really is the king of the SophCon!

    (ClubElo.com is currently down, I hope I can get predictions in for
    the Knockout Round SophCon!)





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