From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer
On 06/12/2025 20:57, Werner Pichler wrote:
On 06/12/2025 23:58, Ll|-o wrote:
On 05/12/2025 16:08, Jesus Petry wrote:
-a-aDone!
Agh! I wanted to try some predictions (sophisticated or not), but it
really is a downer to try that with all those playoffs still open. So,
for now I'll limit myself to listing previous meetings involving the
group stage teams (hoping I'm not missing anything).
-a-aA
Mexico
South Africa
South Korea
(DEN/MKD/CZE/IRL)
1998 South Korea 1-3 Mexico
2010 South Africa 1-1 Mexico
2018 South Korea 1-2 Mexico
What I find really remarkable is that we'll have a repeat of an opening
match just four tournaments later.
Consider what needed to happen for that to be possible - both countries
have to host during that stretch,
Don't know how to account for that. Fwiw, South Africa got 14 votes out
of 24 to host WC'2010. The North American bid of 2026 got 134 out of
210, and neither faced any competition from other continents.
both need to qualify for the other one
(not a given for South Africa),
A bit of a tough one to estimate too, but let's use a very crude method.
Since the lifting of the apartheid ban, South Africa participated in 8 qualifying tournaments since 1994 (not counting 2010, obviously). So did Mexico (not counting 2026) in the same time window.
Mexico qualified every time, so I guess we can assume a probability of 1
for that? Or, in any event, something very close to that - and it
"feels" right too, I guess, given their preeminence in Concacaf,
although there were a couple of close calls.
South Africa only had success in 3 of these 8 attempts, so let's
estimate that probability at 0.375.
Of course, that is a simplification that disregards form, strength of qualifying group, presence of a "golden generation", etc.
they then have to be in the correct pot
to be drawn together,
This one gets a little complex too... The hosts are always going to be
on pot 1, so the question is: how probable is it to see Mexico or South
Africa (in the cups they weren't hosts) outside pot 1?
For simplification purposes, I would guess "very likely" and set this
one as 1 or close to it as well. Mexico was actually a top seed in 2006
and near that in a few other tournaments, but was not anywhere close to
that in 2010. And, for 2010, it would suffice for them to be outside pot
1, as the teams' group positions were also drawn randomly.
South Africa, apart from hosting, hasn't ever been anywhere close to the
top seed requirements. But for 2026, an additional requirement was that
they needed to be in pot 3 to have a shot at being in the opening match
(as I understand it was set that Mexico would face the pot 3 team of
their group in the opener).
So I guess we'd have to ask how likely it was for South Africa to be a
pot 3 team in 2026? I don't know how to deal with this one. For what
it's worth, they were the lowest ranked team of pot 3 (61st on FIFA
rankings), five positions above the top of pot 4 (Jordan, 66th).
no other team from the same confederation must be
drawn from an earlier pot, etc.
In 2010 Mexico was in pot 2, which had no African teams in it, and no
Concacaf team was top seed. South Africa was assigned to group A, so it
would seem that the probability of them getting Mexico was 1/8.
Beyond being drawn to South Africa's group, Mexico also had to be drawn
to the A2 position, which was as likely as the two others (France or
Uruguay could have been drawn for the opener as well). So, I'd say that
the probability of South Africa getting Mexico in its group AND as the
opening match should be (1/8)*(1/3)=1/24, or about 4.17%
In 2026 South Africa was in pot 3, which had one Concacaf member in it (Panama) that couldn't be drawn to Mexico's group. CAF also had Senegal
and Morocco in pot 2, so you have to draw any of the other 10 teams from
this pot to be able to get SA. Mexico was assigned to group A, so the probability that they'd draw South Africa would seem to be (10/12)*(1/11)=10/132, right? Which yields something around 7.58%.
I wonder what the actual probability was.
Let's try some number crunching here (and watch me butcher calculations
and assumptions in the process :-))
Given the above, for 2010 we need Mexico to qualify (p~1), be drawn to
South Africa's group (p=1/8) AND in the opening game's position (p=1/3).
For 2026, we need South Africa to qualify (p=3/8) and be drawn to
Mexico's group (p=10/132).
Multiplying it all together, we get 30/25344 ~ 0.118%, and that's before accounting for the probability of both hosting in this period AND being
drawn in the appropriate pots (ie, Mexico outside pot 1 for 2010, South
Africa in pot 3 for 2026). So, the "real" number must be significantly
lower, surely.
I wonder how wrong I may have gotten the above numbers or assumptions
but, in any event, it is a remarkably rare thing to happen, indeed.
Best regards,
Ll|-o
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