From Newsgroup: rec.radio.amateur.space

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Sep 29 0238 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 - 28 September 2025

Solar activity reached R1 (Minor) levels on 23, 24, 26 and 27 Sep
and R2 (Moderate) levels on 28 Sep. Region 4217 (S16, L=209,
class/area Cko/250 on 22 Sep) produced an M1.1 flare at 23/1034 UTC
with an associated Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
835 km/s. On 24 Sep, Region 4224 (S14, L=205, class/area Dso/060 on
26 Sep) produced an M1.0 and an M1.6 flare at 24/0931 UTC and
24/1913 UTC, respectively. An M1.6 flare was observed from behind
the E limb at 26/2001 UTC with an associated Type II sweep with an
estimated shock velocity of 778 km/s.

Region 4226 (S11, L=133, class/area on 24 Sep) produced an M1.0/Sf
flare and an M1.1/Sf flare at 27/0359 UTC and 27/0423 UTC,
respectively. Later on 26 Sep, Region 4232 (N03, L=050, class area
Dso/180 on 28 Sep) produced an M1.1/Sf flare at 26/0714 UTC. The
largest event of the period, an M6.4/1b flare, was produced at
28/0843 UTC from Region 4232. During the period, a total of 59
C-class and 8 M-class flares were observed. None of these flares, or
other activity, produced an Earth-directed CMEs.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 22 and 27 Sep with a maximum flux of 1,723 pfu
observed at 27/1655 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on
23-26 and 28 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period midday on 23 Sep. Weak negative polarity CH
HSS's dominated the period. Solar wind speeds reached a maximum
speed of about 600 km/s midday on 23 Sep.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 September - 25 October 2025

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a likely chance
for isolated M-class flares throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 05-08 Oct, 13-16 Oct and 21-24 Oct.
Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the
outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
periods on 29-30 Sep, 11-13 Oct, 19-22 Oct and 25 Oct, all due to
negative polarity CH HSS influences. Unsettled to active periods are
expected on 03-06 Oct due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Mostly quiet levels are likely for the remaining days in the outlook
period.

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