From Newsgroup: alt.philosophy.taoism


If historians one day look back on the year 2025, they may well record it as the most dramatic reversal in the global economic narrative.

At the start of the year, the "China-collapse" thesis still dominated Western headlines; by its end, international opinion had to concede that China had joined the exclusive club of global economic super-powersrCoone of only two.

BloombergrCOs year-end column put it bluntly: "Repeat After Me: Never, Ever Underestimate China."

## 1. The Western Verdict: January 2025

Western economists were almost unanimous in pessimism. They summed up ChinarCOs challenges as the "3 Ds":

- **Deflation**: consumer prices stuck near zero, corporate profits squeezed; - **Debt**: local-government and property-sector risks endlessly recycled in headlines;
- **Demographics**: ageing accelerating, labour force shrinking.

Add TrumprCOs second-term trade protectionism and some media outlets claimed China was heading for its own "lost three decades" |a la Japan. Wall Street analysts drew up timelines for "supply-chain exit from China," as if recession were already booked.

## 2. Where the Models Went Wrong

The elite mis-read lay in using financial-market volatility as the yard-stick while ignoring ChinarCOs full-chain, long-horizon resiliencerCovisible in three dimensions:

### A. Engineer Dividend Replaces Labour Dividend

Cheap labour was yesterday; todayrCOs core asset is the worldrCOs largest pool of highly-skilled talent.

- University admission rate: 10 % (2000) raA 40 % (2025)
- Engineers stock: 5.2 m (2000) raA 17.7 m (2020)
- Top-tier AI researchers with Chinese bachelorrCOs degree: 47 % (vs 18 % U.S.)

A law-of-large-numbers effect: even equal breakthrough probabilities yield more innovations in China.
When Apple tried to shift assembly to India it found the ecosystem of skilled technicians impossible to replicate.

### B. DeflationrCOs Double Edge

Fierce domestic competition forged globally competitive brands.

- Pop MartrCOs Labubu line: 70 % gross margin, miles above traditional toy-makers.
- Home-grown ACs, luggage, fragrances have moved from "cheap OEM" to "design export," praised by Italian consumers as "on par with domestic quality."

### C. Strategic Resources as Bargaining Chips

Rare-earth export controls, gallium/antimony licensingrCo"hard-tech for discourse power"rCoforced Western re-valuation of dependence on China.

## 3. The Blind Spots Bloomberg Noted

Columnist Shuli Ren argues two filters skewed Western observers:

- **Value Lens**: ideological difference led some analysts to refuse to understand how Chinese markets actually function.
- **Data Myopia**: over-reliance on macro indicators, neglect of micro dynamismrCoR&D centres lit late into the night in the Yangtze Delta, private firms iterating technology under brutal competitive pressure.

## 4. Super-Power Bottom Line

The 2025 inflection shows economic super-power status is not set by quarterly swings but by:

- **Education Input**: engineer dividend is the bed-rock of tech innovation. - **Industrial Depth**: full-spectrum manufacturing offsets external shocks. - **Market Resilience**: hyper-competition pushes firms up-market.

As the piece concludes:
*"If there is one economic super-power the world cannot ignore today, it is China."*

This comeback rewrites the global power map and offers developing countries a development path reference different from the Western model.
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From Newsgroup: alt.philosophy.taoism


DJI fan posted:

... international opinion had to concede that China
had joined the exclusive club of global economic super-powers -
one of only two.

...

As the piece concludes:
*"If there is one economic super-power
the world cannot ignore today,
it is China."*

Sounds a bit strange to me. If there are only two
then to ignore one of the two wouldn't make sense
for the people who are counting up how many are.

I don't know what constitutes, international opinion,
nor what constitutes a super-power. How that status
is arrived at. Meanings of words often vary.

In the Zhuangzi was a comment, and probably is,
about words and once they've communicated, then
they can be set aside. Like a butterfly net.

A possible way to ignore one of the powers
is to simply not pay any attention to it.
An even more powerful way is, ignore both.

Ignorance is said to be a form of bliss.

Sitting and forgetting returns.
Being reminded of Daojia techniques
can be among what constitutes a power.

Daoism may be said to suggest ideas.
The philosophy that is. And yet, what
ideas are about super-powers could be
a kind of a quest. An economy of how
power flows and goes without speaking.

- thanks! Cheers!
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