On 1/2/2026 8:31 AM, Julian wrote:
There are protests in Iran again. But this time, something ishttps://frasernelson.substack.com/p/how-far-will-irans-protests-go
different. In the uprisings of 2019, 2022 and 2023, the dominant
slogan was negative: what Iranians did not want. rCyDeath to the
dictatorrCO echoed through the streets. Today, the country has moved
beyond rejection. Now there is affirmation. A name is being chanted:
Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.
rCLIf Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue,rCY Donald Trump has just declared. rCLWe are locked and loaded and ready to go.rCY Quite a contrast from IranrCOs 2009 protests to which Barack Obama offered no verbal support, hoping to get the ayatollahs back around a
negotiating table. This strategy failed everyone. Trump has a different style: he dropped bunker-busting bombs on IranrCOs nuclear sites in the summer and is now, it seems, offering strong support to those pushing
for regime change.
The last few days in Iran have been extraordinary, mainly due to how the protests started. Not with the students but with the merchants of
TehranrCOs Grand Bazaar who shuttered their shops on 28 December. The bazaaris have long been the least political part of Iranian society, the bedrock of stability for whoever holds power. When they turned against
the Shah in 1979, his fate was sealed. Now, for the first time since the revolution, they are turning against the mullahs.
This time, protests are nationwide. In Lordegan, protesters stormed the governorrCOs office and set fire to the judiciary building and the Foundation of Martyrs: a direct rejection of the regimerCOs ideological apparatus. The below video from Lordegan shows chants of rCLlong live the shahrCY.
In Azna, they overran a police station. In Fasa, crowds broke down the
doors of the governorate despite live fire from security forces and
military helicopters circling overhead. Students at Beheshti University resisted midnight raids on their dormitories. Workers at TehranrCOs
central fruit and vegetable market have stopped distribution entirely, joining the uprising.
The regime has used tear gas, water cannons (deployed in sub-zero temperatures, amid IranrCOs worst drought in 40 years) and live
ammunition. Over 500 people have been arrested since late December. But
so far, the response has been notably restrained. The regime declared a public holiday, officially citing cold weather, more plausibly hoping
crowds would disperse. President Pezeshkian appeared on television
admitting paralysis: rCLIf people are dissatisfied, it is our fault. Do
not look for America or others to blame. The responsibility lies with
us.rCY He accepted the resignation of the central bank governor, who has become a fall guy for the inflation.
This is not the language of a regime preparing a massacre. It may be the language of one who no longer knows what to do. IranrCOs military and political establishment was decapitated in the 12-day war with Israel. Hossein Salami, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, and Mohammad
Bagheri, chief of staff, were killed in Israeli strikes. Sixteen top
nuclear scientists were taken out. Key infrastructure at Natanz and
Isfahan was destroyed. The 86-year-old Supreme Leader reportedly
retreated to an underground bunker. Khamenei recently appointed
Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi as IRGC deputy commander rCo his second
major appointment in two months, reflecting the chaos at the top.
The economic war has been devastating. Twenty provinces suffered IranrCOs worst drought in 40 years. Electricity blackouts are routine in a
country with the worldrCOs third-largest oil reserves. The regime switched to cheaper, dirtier fuel to keep power on, filling Iranian skies with
smog. And the its regional influence collapsed with AssadrCOs fall in
Syria. For millions of Iranians, the question is no longer whether the Islamic Republic can reform - it is whether it can survive.
What do the protesters want? Some videos show crowds chanting rCLJavid ShahrCY (rCLGod save the KingrCY) calling for the return of the Pahlavi monarchy. The Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi, visited Israel in Apr23 and
met Benjamin Netanyahu, the first prominent Iranian to do so publicly. A post-war survey found 58pc of Iranians blamed Khamenei for the June war damages; 69pc said Iran should stop calling for IsraelrCOs destruction.
For many, the monarchy has become shorthand for normality: normal
relations with the West, an end to sanctions, women free to choose
whether to wear the hijab.
But the picture is contested. A Kurdish activist reported that regime
agents infiltrate protests and chant in favour of Pahlavi, to discredit
the movement and create discord. In several cases, protesters shouted
down royalist slogans. Plainclothes Basij members were identified and
their IDs seized. The regime, it seems, is trying to hijack its own opposition.
This does not mean genuine monarchist sentiment doesnrCOt exist. Iran had
a Constitutional Revolution beginning in 1905, when intellectuals and bazaaris demanded limits on the power of the Shah - one of the most progressive movements in that part of the world. That tradition of constitutional thought did not die with the Islamic revolution. But itrCOs foolish not to accept that we do not yet know what Iranians truly want:
only what some of them are willing to die for.
And they are risking death. Every person who marches in Lordegan or Azna knows the stakes. They know about the 1,500 killed in three days 2019.
They know about the executions after 2022: young men hanged from cranes after show trials, their rCLconfessionsrCY extracted under torture and broadcast on state television. Executions in Iran have doubled in 2025 compared to 2024, the highest rate in nearly 40 years. To march is to
accept the possibility of death.
Joe BidenrCOs policy was containment and engagement: ease sanctions,
pursue diplomacy, try to coax the mullahs toward better behaviour. They pocketed the concessions, expanded its nuclear programme, sent drones to Russia, and saw its oil sales boom. The protests of 2022 were crushed.
The system survived. Trump has taken a different approach, with Iran and Venezuela. His policy is pressure and destabilisation: maximum
sanctions, support for Israeli strikes, direct action against Iranian
assets abroad. Reports have emerged of CIA drone strikes on Venezuelan
ports used for Iranian shipments. Tehran is reportedly scrambling to
recover $2 billion trapped in Caracas, fearing Maduro may fall before
the ayatollahs do.
The big test of TrumprCOs foreign policy has always been whether he can
get the better of his adversaries: in Beijing, Tehran and Caracus. The people that the historian Niall Ferguson calls the rCLaxis of ill-willrCY. In Iran, certainly, the wall of fear now seems to be crumbling.
Protesters are storming government buildings, not fleeing from them. The regime has responded with a public holiday and a presidential apology,
not a massacre. Perhaps it is biding its time. Perhaps it no longer has
the capacity (or the will) to kill on the scale of 2019. And perhaps the regime really is on the edge.
Fraser Nelson
On 1/2/2026 8:31 AM, Julian wrote:
There are protests in Iran again. But this time, something ishttps://frasernelson.substack.com/p/how-far-will-irans-protests-go
different. In the uprisings of 2019, 2022 and 2023, the dominant
slogan was negative: what Iranians did not want. rCyDeath to the
dictatorrCO echoed through the streets. Today, the country has moved
beyond rejection. Now there is affirmation. A name is being chanted:
Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.
rCLIf Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue,rCY Donald Trump has just declared. rCLWe are locked and loaded and ready to go.rCY Quite a contrast from IranrCOs 2009 protests to which Barack Obama offered no verbal support, hoping to get the ayatollahs back around a
negotiating table. This strategy failed everyone. Trump has a different style: he dropped bunker-busting bombs on IranrCOs nuclear sites in the summer and is now, it seems, offering strong support to those pushing
for regime change.
The last few days in Iran have been extraordinary, mainly due to how the protests started. Not with the students but with the merchants of
TehranrCOs Grand Bazaar who shuttered their shops on 28 December. The bazaaris have long been the least political part of Iranian society, the bedrock of stability for whoever holds power. When they turned against
the Shah in 1979, his fate was sealed. Now, for the first time since the revolution, they are turning against the mullahs.
This time, protests are nationwide. In Lordegan, protesters stormed the governorrCOs office and set fire to the judiciary building and the Foundation of Martyrs: a direct rejection of the regimerCOs ideological apparatus. The below video from Lordegan shows chants of rCLlong live the shahrCY.
In Azna, they overran a police station. In Fasa, crowds broke down the
doors of the governorate despite live fire from security forces and
military helicopters circling overhead. Students at Beheshti University resisted midnight raids on their dormitories. Workers at TehranrCOs
central fruit and vegetable market have stopped distribution entirely, joining the uprising.
The regime has used tear gas, water cannons (deployed in sub-zero temperatures, amid IranrCOs worst drought in 40 years) and live
ammunition. Over 500 people have been arrested since late December. But
so far, the response has been notably restrained. The regime declared a public holiday, officially citing cold weather, more plausibly hoping
crowds would disperse. President Pezeshkian appeared on television
admitting paralysis: rCLIf people are dissatisfied, it is our fault. Do
not look for America or others to blame. The responsibility lies with
us.rCY He accepted the resignation of the central bank governor, who has become a fall guy for the inflation.
This is not the language of a regime preparing a massacre. It may be the language of one who no longer knows what to do. IranrCOs military and political establishment was decapitated in the 12-day war with Israel. Hossein Salami, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, and Mohammad
Bagheri, chief of staff, were killed in Israeli strikes. Sixteen top
nuclear scientists were taken out. Key infrastructure at Natanz and
Isfahan was destroyed. The 86-year-old Supreme Leader reportedly
retreated to an underground bunker. Khamenei recently appointed
Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi as IRGC deputy commander rCo his second
major appointment in two months, reflecting the chaos at the top.
The economic war has been devastating. Twenty provinces suffered IranrCOs worst drought in 40 years. Electricity blackouts are routine in a
country with the worldrCOs third-largest oil reserves. The regime switched to cheaper, dirtier fuel to keep power on, filling Iranian skies with
smog. And the its regional influence collapsed with AssadrCOs fall in
Syria. For millions of Iranians, the question is no longer whether the Islamic Republic can reform - it is whether it can survive.
What do the protesters want? Some videos show crowds chanting rCLJavid ShahrCY (rCLGod save the KingrCY) calling for the return of the Pahlavi monarchy. The Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi, visited Israel in Apr23 and
met Benjamin Netanyahu, the first prominent Iranian to do so publicly. A post-war survey found 58pc of Iranians blamed Khamenei for the June war damages; 69pc said Iran should stop calling for IsraelrCOs destruction.
For many, the monarchy has become shorthand for normality: normal
relations with the West, an end to sanctions, women free to choose
whether to wear the hijab.
But the picture is contested. A Kurdish activist reported that regime
agents infiltrate protests and chant in favour of Pahlavi, to discredit
the movement and create discord. In several cases, protesters shouted
down royalist slogans. Plainclothes Basij members were identified and
their IDs seized. The regime, it seems, is trying to hijack its own opposition.
This does not mean genuine monarchist sentiment doesnrCOt exist. Iran had
a Constitutional Revolution beginning in 1905, when intellectuals and bazaaris demanded limits on the power of the Shah - one of the most progressive movements in that part of the world. That tradition of constitutional thought did not die with the Islamic revolution. But itrCOs foolish not to accept that we do not yet know what Iranians truly want:
only what some of them are willing to die for.
And they are risking death. Every person who marches in Lordegan or Azna knows the stakes. They know about the 1,500 killed in three days 2019.
They know about the executions after 2022: young men hanged from cranes after show trials, their rCLconfessionsrCY extracted under torture and broadcast on state television. Executions in Iran have doubled in 2025 compared to 2024, the highest rate in nearly 40 years. To march is to
accept the possibility of death.
Joe BidenrCOs policy was containment and engagement: ease sanctions,
pursue diplomacy, try to coax the mullahs toward better behaviour. They pocketed the concessions, expanded its nuclear programme, sent drones to Russia, and saw its oil sales boom. The protests of 2022 were crushed.
The system survived. Trump has taken a different approach, with Iran and Venezuela. His policy is pressure and destabilisation: maximum
sanctions, support for Israeli strikes, direct action against Iranian
assets abroad. Reports have emerged of CIA drone strikes on Venezuelan
ports used for Iranian shipments. Tehran is reportedly scrambling to
recover $2 billion trapped in Caracas, fearing Maduro may fall before
the ayatollahs do.
The big test of TrumprCOs foreign policy has always been whether he can
get the better of his adversaries: in Beijing, Tehran and Caracus. The people that the historian Niall Ferguson calls the rCLaxis of ill-willrCY. In Iran, certainly, the wall of fear now seems to be crumbling.
Protesters are storming government buildings, not fleeing from them. The regime has responded with a public holiday and a presidential apology,
not a massacre. Perhaps it is biding its time. Perhaps it no longer has
the capacity (or the will) to kill on the scale of 2019. And perhaps the regime really is on the edge.
Fraser Nelson
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