ACUS11 KWNS 042337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042336
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-050130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 21...

Valid 042336Z - 050130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread southeast this evening. Damaging
winds can be expected, along with some risk for a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Intense mid-level height falls will spread across the mid-Mississippi valley this evening, with lesser, but significant
forcing extending south across the lower MS Valley ahead of a strong
short-wave trough. Long-lived, organized squall line is propagating
southeast ahead of this feature, and currently extends from
east-central MS into southeast LA. Higher boundary-layer moisture
has struggled to move appreciably inland with mid 60s surface dew
points having advanced into Jones County MS, roughly 70 mi north of
the Coast. This is about the northern extent of modest buoyancy, and
the greatest instability should hold along/near the Gulf Coast much
of the evening. Very strong wind profiles continue to favor
organized convection and damaging winds are expected with this
linear MCS. Until/unless more discrete cells form ahead of the line,
any tornado risk should be with embedded supercells.

..Darrow.. 03/04/2025

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 29749089 32148894 31678825 29459006 29749089

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