315
AXNT20 KNHC 131010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Feb 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front curves
southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N61W to near
Port Pierce, Florida. The combination of wind waves and existing
large NW swell will maintain seas to 12 north of 30N between 55W
and 60W through early this morning. As the front weakens further
today, it will allow seas to drop below 12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 04N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01S40W. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front meanders northwestward from central Florida to
the Florida Panhandle, then turns westward across the coastal
areas of Mississippi, Louisiana, and southeastern Texas.
Confirmed by local observations, patchy fog is noted along the
coast of southern Bay of Campeche with local visibilities down to
6 nm. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high at the northwestern Gulf is
providing light to gentle winds and slight seas for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters today, bringing in general
light to gentle winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh
easterly winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche through Sun.
Southerly return flow will increase to fresh to strong speeds on
Sat ahead of a cold front that will move across the west and
central waters Sat night and Sun. Strong S to SW winds and rough
seas are expected in the nort-central and NE Gulf with this
frontal system on Sun. The front is forecast to move SE of the area by Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin, with
fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas at the south-central
basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas dominate
the southwestern, north-central and eastern Gulf, including the
Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Mainly gentle NE winds and
slight to moderate seas are noted at the northwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will continue near the coast
of Colombia through the forecast period due to the pressure
gradient between the Colombia/Panamanian low and high pressure
centered N of the region. Moderate to rough seas are expected with
these winds. Strong winds will develop over the Windward Passage
and S of Dominican Republic this weekend as frontal boundaries
approach from the north. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas will prevail through the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details about
the Significant Swell across the W-central Atlantic.

A cold front curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda
across 31N60W to near Port Pierce, Florida. Scattered showers are
seen near and up to 100 nm south and east of this feature.
To the east, convergent southerly winds are aided by modest
divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the northeast coast of Hispaniola and N of Puerto
Rico. To the northeast, scattered moderate convection is noted
N of 25N between 46W and 56W. Over the far the eastern Atlantic,
a weakening cold front reaches southwestward from near Madeira
across 30N16W to near 26N28W. Outside the area mentioned in the
Special Features section above, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are noted W o 55W, while fresh to strong winds and
rough seas prevail E of 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from
31N53W to the Windward Passage by Sat morning. Hazardous marine
conditions near the front will diminish today as it weakens. High
pressure will follow the front. On Sun, S winds will increase to
strong speeds offshore north and central Florida, in advance of
another cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast on Mon.
Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected in the
wake of the front.

$$
ERA
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)