ACUS11 KWNS 251556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251555=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-251800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Areas affected...southern AL...FL Panhandle...southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 251555Z - 251800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential will likely increase into early afternoon
with a QLCS and embedded supercells capable of producing damaging
winds and tornadoes. A tornado watch will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Along a pronounced cold front to the south-southwest of
a surface cyclone between TCL and SEM, convective intensities appear
to be increasing to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-frontal cells have
also increased over the past hour, and an increasing severe threat
is anticipated as activity matures over the next 2-3 hours. While
pervasive downstream cloud coverage is limiting boundary-layer
heating in the confined warm-moist sector, 60s surface dew points
are sufficient for weak to modest MLCAPE from Mobile Bay and the
western FL Panhandle northward into south-central AL. This
warm-moist sector will shift east through the afternoon and likely
reach southwest GA to the eastern FL Panhandle. Low-level shear is
quite strong with enlarged hodographs favoring
mesocyclone/mesovortex development. Expectation is for a QLCS to
evolve east through the afternoon with a threat for damaging winds
and brief tornadoes. If semi-discrete supercells can form ahead of
and merge into the QLCS, a longer-tracked tornado or two is
possible.

..Grams/Hart.. 01/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!91ezbwjNjRma2XWyu6SmStzUYOa2YdmGxDdoo_3X6JEuZDMJD28JLcZUNiL0DyyxzyFQiK9PC= UPgvufDhtaD8G5yuGw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30388857 31858758 32418709 32478584 32218462 32008402
31608382 30688419 29788531 30188614 30388857=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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