ACUS11 KWNS 242118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242117=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-250115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into West Texas and far
southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 242117Z - 250115Z

SUMMARY...An increase in precipitation coverage and intensity is
expected into the evening.

DISCUSSION...A potent mid-level shortwave trough can be seen across
northern Mexico on water vapor imagery. This trough is starting to
take on a negative tilt as it advances towards Far West Texas. As
this occurs, large-scale ascent will strengthen across the southern
High Plains.

This will result in an increase in coverage and intensity of
precipitation late this afternoon and into the evening. Regional
radar imagery shows this expansion beginning already with cooling
cloud tops upstream across northern Mexico and Far West Texas.
Forecast soundings support sleet across much of this area late this
afternoon and into early evening. However, the sleet/snow line will
move gradually southeast through the evening as temperatures cool
aloft.

Sleet accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour and snow
accumulations of 1 inch per hour are expected as forcing increases. Particularly closer to 00Z.

..Bentley.. 01/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_b8CNX2HL5nRPL3lHVZGgmirLepsZBDgyrZU_RuHkdu0Kh98WB-t_OIeKRPWxzrKHXckUZ5SX= M9OupwMLxypVV7YUWM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34160314 34690180 34790008 34479925 32320005 30890161
30150217 30130305 30490430 32110449 34160314=20


=3D =3D =3D
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