075
AXNT20 KNHC 100846
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jan 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force NE to E
winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to
the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and
low pressure over northern Colombia, except minimal gale force
until around sunrise this morning. Seas to 12 ft will occur
within these winds. After Sun night, fresh to locally strong
winds will prevail there.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the coast of Texas this morning. Strong to near-gale force N
winds following the front will rapidly reach gale force near
Tampico late this morning and afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent
waters this evening through Mon. Winds may peak around 45 kt near
Veracruz. Seas will quickly build and likely peak at around 21 ft
offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front will weaken and
stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the
eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf
will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and then continues to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from
06N18W to 04N35W and to 01N50W near the coast of Brazil. Widely
scattered moderate convection is observed mainly south of 08N.

...GULF OF Mexico...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the W-central Gulf and western
Bay of Campeche area. Please read the Special Features section
above for details.

A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends southwestward
to the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and lower pressures associated with a cold front over the southern
United States result in moderate to fresh SE-S winds over much of
the basin, especially east of 96W. Seas in these waters are 3-6
ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail. Areas of dense fog are present within 20 nm of shore of
SE Louisiana to nearshore of the western Florida Panhandle.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will diminish this
morning as a cold front near the Texas coast enters the basin.
Strong to near- gale force N winds following the front will
rapidly reach gale force near Tampico late this morning and
afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent waters this evening through
Mon. Winds may peak around 45 kt near Veracruz. Seas will quickly
build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz Sun and
Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba
to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon
evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon
night into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next
cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and
building seas by Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect the waters off NW Colombia. Please
read the Special Features section above for details.

The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America
results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean. This was confirmed by earlier scatterometer satellite
passes. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas prevail, except locally
fresh to strong in the Lee of Cuba, across and through the
approach to the Windward Passage, and offshore southern Haiti. No
significant convection is noted across the Caribbean basin.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the
gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low
pressure over northern Colombia, except minimal gale force until
around sunrise today. Seas to 12 ft will occur within these winds.
After Sun night, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail
there. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in
the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and
Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely
pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola
through Sat night, with similar winds pulsing in the lee of Cuba
early today and Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
will prevail, except for moderate to fresh winds near the Gulf of
Honduras this morning. A decaying cold front may move into or near
the far NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and wash out.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad 1028 mb high pressure system centered northwest of Bermuda
near 34N66W dominates much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W.
A cold front extends from near 31N49W to 26N60W, where it becomes
a frontal trough to 25N65W to 28N74W. Moderate to fresh NE-E
winds and moderate seas are found west of a line from 31N50W to
Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, the central and eastern tropical Atlantic
waters are dominates by a 1032 mb high pressure system located
northwest of Madeira. A tight pressure gradient forces fresh to
strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across much of
the waters east of 44W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure building and sliding
eastward in the wake of a cold front that extends from 27N55W to
26N59W continuing as a frontal trough to 25N65W and 28N74W will
support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the
Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, and the approaches to the Windward
Passage through Sun, with locally strong winds near the Windward
Passage as the front washes out. A new cold front will emerge off
the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas
will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to
the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the front will
become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue. The next
cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night.

$$
Lewitsky
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

608
AXNT20 KNHC 110806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jan 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. Gale force N
winds have diminished slightly near Tampico, Mexico while they
continue S of 22N offshore Veracruz with an earlier ASCAT
scatterometer pass showing winds around 45 kt and they could be
slightly higher. Gale conditions are expected in Veracruz
adjacent waters through Mon. Winds may continue to peak around 45
kt near Veracruz early today. Seas will continue to build and
likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz today and tonight.
The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the
Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening.
Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into
Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near
08N13W, then runs southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil at 00.5N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 22W and 52.5W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the W-central Gulf and western
Bay of Campeche. Please read the Special Features section above for details.

As previously mentioned, a strong cold front extends from the
Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong to near
gale force northerly winds are behind the front with gale force
winds S of 22N, along with rough to very rough seas. A narrow
band of showers and thunderstorms is along the front, primarily S
of 25N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen on
conventional infrared satellite imagery in the eastern Bay of
Campeche with a surface trough analyzed along the W coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the area is under the
influence of a surface ridge, that extends from near Bermuda,
across Florida into the Gulf region. Gentle to moderate SE to S
winds and moderate seas are ahead of the front, with the exception
of slight seas within 120 nm of the Florida Peninsula.

For the forecast, as the front continues to move through the
basin winds will peak around 45 kt near into today. Seas will
continue to build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of
Veracruz today and tonight. The front will weaken and stall from
near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of
Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually
improve Mon night into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed.
The next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds
and building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting
SE of the basin Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America
results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are in the rough range.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas
prevail. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade
wind flow, are moving across the basin producing isolated to
scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through tonight due to the pressure
gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low
pressure over northern Colombia, resulting in rough seas. After
tonight, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail there. Pulsing
moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the
central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and
Hispaniola adjacent waters through at least the early part of the
week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A decaying
cold front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean early this
week where it will stall and wash out. Another front may move into
the NW basin Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad 1027 mb high pressure system centered NE of Bermuda near
32.5N52.5W extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, Florida
and the Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N37W to
24N49W, with an inverted trough analyzed near 55W from 20N to 29N.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail across
most of the waters N of 20N and W of 50W except weaker right under
the ridge axis. An area of showers and thunderstorms is on the E
side of the inverted trough. This convective activity covers
roughly the waters from 20N to 28N between 50W and 57W. Farther
E, high pressure of 1028 mb located near the Madeira Islands
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in
the vicinity of the Monsoon trough/ITCZ is generating a large
area of fresh to strong NE to E winds from 07N to 25N E of 35W to
the coast of W Africa, along with rough seas. Moderate to fresh
trade winds and moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will emerge off the NE
Florida coast later today. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough
seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the
front will become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue.
The next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night, reaching
from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu night, with
associated gale winds possible N of 29N Thu night.

$$
Lewitsky
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

803
AXNT20 KNHC 120842
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jan 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the
Gulf from near S Florida to N of the Yucatan Channel to the
central Bay of Campeche where it is stalling. Gale force NW to N
winds to 40 kt with seas to 18 ft are occurring over the SW Gulf
in the wake of the front. Strong northerly winds and moderate to
rough seas follow the front elsewhere. The front will weaken and
stall from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the
eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the SW Gulf
will gradually improve tonight into Tue. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea near 10.5N14W and
continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to the coast of
northern Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N to 09N between 22W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning.

A cold front is moving across the Gulf from near S Florida to N
of the Yucatan Channel to the central Bay of Campeche where it is
stalling. Gale force NW to N winds to 40 kt with seas to 18 ft are
occurring over the SW Gulf in the wake of the front. Strong
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas follow the front
elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE winds and slight to moderate seas
are analyzed ahead of the front in the far SE Gulf and the
Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the front will weaken and stall from western
Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of
Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually
improve tonight into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The
next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and
building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting SE of
the basin Thu. Conditions should improve by the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong and broad ridge north of the Caribbean continues to
support strong to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE-E
breezes and moderate seas prevail. No significant convection is
noted in the Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through much of the week due to the
pressure gradient between high pressure NE of the region and low
pressure over northern Colombia, resulting in rough seas. Pulsing
moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast south of Hispaniola,
in the Windward passage, and in the lee of Cuba through the early
part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will
prevail. A weakening stationary front is forecast to extend across
western Cuba and the northern Yucatan peninsula by Tue morning
while gradually dissipating. Another cold front may move into the
NW part of the basin Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front extends from just W of Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas and S Florida with fresh to strong winds and
rough to very rough seas building behind it. The remainder of the
SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under a weak pressure gradient
that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

A surface trough is analyzed at 64W and north of 20N. The
interaction of this feature and divergence aloft sustains
scattered showers east of the boundary. The remainder of the
tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical
ridge over the far NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and seas of 4-8 ft are noted between 42W and 55W. Moderate
to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 5-9 ft are found south of
25N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will become stationary as
it dissipates on Tue. Then, high pressure will follow the front.
Looking ahead, the next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed
night, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu
night. At that time, gale conditions are possible in the wake of
the front near 31N with building seas across the waters.

$$
Lewitsky
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

935
AXNT20 KNHC 150825
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jan 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW waters later
this morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri
morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it
will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds and rough
seas will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to
reach gale force ahead and behind the front N of 29N by this
evening. A reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the
upcoming weekend, bringing strong to near gale force winds and rough seas.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the
Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico. The front is followed
by fresh to near gale-force NW to N winds and rough seas per
recent buoy and platform observations, and earlier ASCAT
scatterometer data, along with building and rough seas. Frequent
gusts to gale force are expected across the coastal waters of the
NE Gulf, particularly between Apalachicola, FL and Mobile, AL
through much of today. Conditions will improve across the Gulf
region Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to
strong northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend,
potentially developing northerly gale-force winds near Tampico and
Veracruz on Sun.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, then runs southwestward to 08N15W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N12W to 02N30W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted on conventional satellite imagery from 00N to
02N between 14W and 20W, and from 01.5N to 04N between 21W and 26.5W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for
the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special
Features section for more details.

As mentioned, a cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to
near Tampico, Mexico. The front is followed by fresh to near
gale-force NW to N winds and rough seas per recent buoy and
platform observations, and earlier ASCAT scatterometer data, along
with building and rough seas. Multilayer clouds, with possible
showers, are noted over most of the Gulf waters and Florida.
Mainly moderate SW-W winds with a pre-frontal trough are noted
across the remainder of the basin ahead of the front.

For the forecast, a cold front from the Florida Big Bend to near
Tampico, Mexico will move rapidly across the basin, shifting
southeast of the area by this evening. The front is followed by
increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will improve from
NW to SE tonight into the weekend. A reinforcing front and surge
of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the basin this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean early this
morning, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted over the remainder of the east and central parts of the
basin S of 20N. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
dominate the western Caribbean, except in the far NW Caribbean
where a pre-frontal trough reaches from the western tip of Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras with moderate NW winds to the W of it. Some
shower activity is observed near the trough. Elsewhere, patches of
low level moisture, with possible showers, prevail.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds
offshore of NW Colombia early this morning, then return Fri night
through the weekend and into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds will prevail through early today, except moderate
to fresh across the remainder of the central Caribbean S of 20N. A
cold front will move into the NW Caribbean later today, stall
from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure
gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the
upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds
and building seas across the basin, while a reinforcing front and
surge of winds also arrives in the NW Caribbean by early Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida where
it has stalled, with fresh to strong winds on either side N of 27N
and W of 68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up
near this boundary. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N and W of
68W, along with locally rough seas, mainly N of 30N.

High pressure dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic
forecast region. Under the influence of this system, an area of
fresh to strong NE winds is noted from 12N to 26N and E of 35W to
the coast of W Africa, including near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Seas of 7 to 10 ft are within these winds. Moderate to locally
fresh trades are observed across the tropical Atlantic with
moderate to rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and mainly
moderate seas are elsewhere. An upper-level low in the central
Atlantic near 23N38W is triggering some shower activity, while
moist southerly flow in the wake of a warm front now well N of 31N
supports additional shower activity N of 27N between 46W and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a reinforcing front will move off
Florida later this morning and merge with the leading front,
reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and
extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall
and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the
front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force Thu
night east of the front and N of 29N. Another cold front may
impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

177
AXNT20 KNHC 161021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jan 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 987 mb low
pressure located in the NW Atlantic to the central Bahamas and
central Cuba. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed
winds to gale force both ahead of and following the front north of
29N, embedded in an area of strong to near-gale force conditions
north of 25N and west of 65W. The front will reach from near
Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W
Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Winds will diminish
below gale force accordingly through early Fri. Elsewhere,
widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through
Fri. Rough to very rough seas are also expected ahead and behind
the front through Fri. Another cold front may impact the basin
late in the upcoming weekend.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will reach the NW Gulf
tonight, supporting fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds and rough
seas behind the front. The front will reach from Apalachicola,
Florida to Tamaulipas, Mexico Sat night, then from SW Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico Sun evening and east of the basin by Sun night.
Winds are expected to strengthen to gale-force behind the boundary
late Sat into early Sun, especially off Tampico, and then
Veracruz late Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas will develop
with these winds. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N14W and continues southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N18W to 03N35W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

A 1022 mb high pressure system dominates the Gulf of
Mexico, supporting moderate to fresh N winds over the E Gulf
waters and rough seas over the E Gulf and Bay of Campeche.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere. The dry, cold continental airmass moving across the
basin is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, marine conditions will quickly improve from NW
to SE this morning. A reinforcing front will reach the NW Gulf
tonight, supporting fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds and rough
seas behind the front. The front will reach from Apalachicola,
Florida to Tamaulipas, Mexico Sat night, then from SW Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico Sun evening and east of the basin by Sun night.
Winds are expected to strengthen to gale-force behind the boundary
late Sat into early Sun, especially off Tampico, and then
Veracruz late Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas will develop
with these winds. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon.
However, the pressure gradient will tighten again Tue into Wed,
resulting in fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to rough
seas across much of the basin..

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Camaguey, Cuba to southern
Belize. Moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas are noted
behind the boundary. A line of showers also extends from E
Hispaniola to Panama. Moderate to fresh N winds and moderate to
locally rough seas are found behind the front. Meanwhile, a strong
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the
central and eastern Caribbean, sustaining moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the front is expected to stall from E Cuba to
Honduras later today, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient
may tighten later in the upcoming weekend and early next week
leading to increasing winds and building seas across the basin
ahead of a reinforcing front. The front will arrive in the NW
Caribbean early next week and the tight pressure gradient behind
it will sustain fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough
seas during most of next week. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds
will pulse offshore of NW Colombia tonight, reaching near- gale
force at night starting Sat night and into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

Outside of the area of gales described above in the Special
Features section, a ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic
to north of Hispaniola. Farther east, a broad upper low is
centered near 22N37W. A weak surface trough is noted from 24N35W
to 15N40W. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas cover a
large area north of 12N and east of 55W, south of the ridge.
Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas this morning, and from
31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken.
Widespread fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough
seas are found ahead and behind of the front. Gale force winds are
occurring north of 29N. These winds will shift eastward today,
before lifting north of our area this evening. Seas will
gradually diminish into the weekend. Another cold front may impact
the basin late in the upcoming weekend into early next week,
supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas..

$$
Delgado
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

481
AXNT20 KNHC 191055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jan 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1034 mb
high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is
supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore
Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the
middle of the week, before the high pressure weaken and shift
eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia
to gale force tonight, Tue night and Wed night. Rough to locally
very rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern
Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are
expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts
with a pre-frontal trough in the NW Caribbean and a frontal
boundary currently across central Cuba. The front will stall later
today and transition to a shear line Tue before dissipating Wed.
This will result in the continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through
early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras, where
totals in excess of 12 inches will be likely. Please consult
products from your local meteorological services for additional
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and extends to 02N20W. The ITCZ extends from
02N20W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 01S to 08N between 06W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 mb high pressure is building across the Gulf in the wake of
a cold front passage. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
the front, which is moving across the central Bahamas and central
Cuba, supports moderate to fresh N winds east of 90W and in the
Bay of Campeche. Rough seas to 10 ft are ongoing in the SW Gulf
and portions of the SE Gulf near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N winds across the E
and SW Gulf and rough seas associated with the passage of a cold
front will continue to diminish today. However, high pressure
building over the SE of the United States will bring fresh to
locally strong NE winds, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including
the Straits of Florida, Tue and Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a gale
warning offshore Colombia.

A cold front extends from central Cuba and then stalls just east
of the Cayman Islands before continuing to the Gulf of Honduras.
A tight pressure gradient behind the front forces fresh to strong
NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the NW Caribbean W of 80W.
The remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic, which is supporting moderate to
fresh trades over the E basin and fresh to near gale-force trades
over the central Caribbean where rough seas to 10 ft are being
reported by a ship. Aside from the winds and seas, scattered
showers are ongoing over southern Cuba adjacent waters and the
Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, gale force winds are forecast at night offshore
Colombia today through Wed. The cold front is forecast to stall
from central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by this evening,
where it will continue to weaken before transitioning to a shear
line by Tue evening and dissipating by Wed evening. Ongoing fresh
to strong northerly winds and rough seas are forecast to prevail
west of the frontal boundary through Wed. Additionally, periods of
significant heavy rainfall are expected through mid-week as
abundant tropical moisture interacts with the frontal boundary in
the NW Caribbean. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur in
northern Honduras early Tue through early Wed, where totals in
excess of 12 inches will be possible.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is moving across the central Bahamas, extending from
31N71W to central Cuba. Scattered showers are behind the front,
affecting mainly the northern Bahamas. The remainder basin is
under the influence of the Azores High and long-period E swell,
which is supporting a very broad area of fresh to strong NE to E
winds from roughly from 16N to 27N E of 65W, all the way to the
coast of W Africa. Seas are rough to very rough to 13 ft with
these winds. Moderate to fresh trades are across the tropical
waters along with rough seas to 10 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong Atlantic high pressure and E
long-period swell will support strong trade winds E of 65W
through Thu. The cold front will continue to bring fresh winds
through the region through this evening. The front will reach from
near Bermuda to central Cuba this evening, and stall past Bermuda
to central Cuba by Tue evening before dissipating. High pressure
building over the SE of the United States will boost NE winds to
fresh to strong speeds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida
Straits tonight into the middle of the week.

$$
Ramos
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

263
AXNT20 KNHC 201012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jan 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1032 mb
high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is supporting
fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These
two features will remain in place through the middle of the week,
before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage
flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force at
night through Thu morning. Rough seas are forecast with these
winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern
Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are
expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts
with a now shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the NW Caribbean
in the wake of the shearline. This will result in the
continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through early Wed in the Gulf
of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12
inches will be likely.

Please consult products from your local meteorological services
for additional information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 09N14W and continues southwestward to 03N25W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas across
much of the basin. The dry continental airmass moving across the
Gulf water suppresses the development of showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
region. The pressure gradient between this system and a frontal
boundary over the NW Caribbean supports fresh to strong northerly
winds and rough seas across the SE and SW Gulf, including the
Yucatan Channel. These marine conditions will continue to diminish
tonight. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the
United States will bring fresh to strong NE winds and building
seas, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida, tonight through Wed. The next cold front is slated to
enter the NW Gulf Fri night followed by fresh to strong winds and
building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale
Warning offshore Colombia.

A dissipating stationary front has transitioned into a shearline,
extending from Camaguey, Cuba to the Bay Islands and northern
Honduras. Scattered showers are evident in the Bay Islands and
ahead of the front. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these
waters are moderate to rough. The remainder of the Caribbean is
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.
Outside of the south-central Caribbean, moderate to fresh
easterly and moderate to rough seas prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, gale force NE winds are forecast to pulse each
night over the waters offshore Colombia through Thu morning. A
shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will
dissipate today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas
will persist over the NW Caribbean W of the shearline. By this
evening, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the United
States will reinforce the northerly winds over the NW Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Honduras. These marine conditions will
improve by Wed. In addition, the NE winds will continue to
transport abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras
supporting periods of heavy rainfall through mid-week. An area of
moisture, currently located over the central Atlantic, will reach
the Leeward Islands on Wed, and Puerto Rico on Thu increasing the
potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and then to Camaguey, Cuba. Scattered showers are noted
along this boundary. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and
moderate to rough seas are noted behind the front. The rest of
the basin is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge near the
Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to near gale-force
easterly winds east of 60W and south of 28N. Seas in these waters
are rough. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas
are also occurring off Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and moderate seas prevail. Divergence aloft is sustaining a
few showers east of the Lesser Antilles, especially south of 21N
and between 40W and 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will
continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds east of 65W
through Thu. A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the
coast of central Cuba. This feature will prevail in the area, then
lift N while dissipating by midweek. High pressure building over
the SE of the United States will reinforce the NE winds to fresh
to strong speeds over the western Atlantic, in the vicinity of the
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Wed.

$$
ERA
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

137
AXNT20 KNHC 211016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jan 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1030 mb
high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombian low is
supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore
Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the
middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts
eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia
to gale force at night through Thu morning. Rough seas are
forecast with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern
Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are
expected through today as abundant tropical moisture interacts
with a shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Periods of heavy rainfall will continue through early
today in the Gulf and northern Honduras, where totals in excess
of 12 inches will be likely.

Please consult products from your local meteorological services
for additional information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N24W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ between 17W-36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong surface ridge over the eastern United States forces
fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas east of
90E, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are found west of 90E to a line from
southern Texas to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northerly winds and
moderate to rough seas will persist through today. The next cold
front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Fri night into Sat followed
by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Reinforcing high
pressure in the wake of the front, may bring gale conditions first
near Tampico, then near Veracruz on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale
Warning offshore Colombia.

A shearline extends from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras. Fresh
to strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail W of the
shearline and north of 17N. Outside of the south-central
Caribbean, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas are
found off southern Hispaniola and NE Caribbean. Easterly swell is
reaching the Atlantic water passages of the NE Caribbean, allowing
for localized rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United
States will continue to promote fresh to strong NE winds and
moderate to rough seas across the NW Caribbean through today.
These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into
northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall. A
surface trough, and associated area of moisture, will move across
the Leeward Islands late today, and over Puerto Rico on Thu,
likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase
the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the islands and surrounding waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N63W and
continues to eastern Cuba. To the W of this front, a weakening
stationary front extends from 31N70W to 29N81W. Scattered showers
are noted near these boundaries. The pressure gradient between a
strong ridge over the eastern United States and the fronts
supports fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas W of
68W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an extensive
subtropical ridge SW of the Azores, forcing fresh to near gale-
force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas south of 27N
and east of 67W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are prevalent. Divergence aloft east of the Lesser Antilles
sustains a large area of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, especially from 14N to 20N and between 45W and 57W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will
continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
east of 67W through Thu. The stationary front in the W Atlantic will
lift N and gradually dissipate through Thu, while the weakening
front W of the aforementioned one will dissipate today. The
pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will continue to support
fresh to strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the
Straits of Florida through today.

$$
ERA
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

948
AXNT20 KNHC 221020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the Caribbean Sea
is supporting gale-force NE winds that will prevail through this
morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to
pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week.
Rough seas are forecast with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 02N27W. The
ITCZ extends from 02N27W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of 07N and E of 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge to the
Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas east of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail. Light showers are evident in the Florida
Straits due to a dissipating stationary front.

For the forecast, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf Sat followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building
seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may
bring near-gale to gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night,
then near Veracruz on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning off the
coast of Colombia.

Outside of the south-central Caribbean, a surface trough, and
associated area of moisture, has entered the eastern Caribbean
enhancing convection. A strong subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic supports moderate to strong easterly winds and rough
seas in the north-central and NE Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate
seas are found in the SE Caribbean and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, gale force NE winds will prevail through early this
morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to
pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week.
The trough in the E Caribbean will continue moving W through the
week, increasing the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 30N72W to 23N80W. A few showers
are noted near this boundary. The tropical Atlantic is dominated
by an extensive, strong ridge north of Bermuda, supporting fresh
to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas south of 27N and
east of 75W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found south
of 20N and between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted west of
75W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent. A weak surface trough east of the Lesser Antilles and
divergence aloft sustains scattered showers south of 20N and east
of 47W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue
to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of
75W through today. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will
continue to support fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas
and the Straits of Florida through this morning. The next cold
front will likely move offshore NE FL by Mon. Ahead of the front,
fresh to strong SW winds are possible on Sun night, mainly W of
75W.

$$
ERA

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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

394
AXNT20 KNHC 241028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jan 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move across
the basin Sunday through early Tuesday. Arctic high pressure of
near 1040 mb will move into Texas Sun night and settle in behind
the front, and is expected to drive strong to near gale- force NW
to N winds across NW and N central portions of the Gulf Sun and
Sun night. Gale conditions are possible over the offshore waters
of Tampico Sun night into Mon morning, and are likely over the
waters offshore Veracruz on Mon and Mon night. Seas will quickly
build behind the front as well, with rough to very rough seas
expected. Seas look to peak around 16-17 ft in the SW Gulf near
the Veracruz waters on Monday.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08.5N13W, then continues SW to near 06N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N16W to 01.5N22W to 02.5N33W to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 00.5N to 06N between
12W and 28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 07.5N
between 30W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A nearly stationary front extends across northern Florida
southwestward across the Florida Big Bend to 27.5N88W and to the
central coast of Texas. Scattered showers are seen near this
boundary east of 90W, while moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
and seas of 3-5 ft prevail north of the front. Otherwise, a weak
surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf region
supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas E of
91W and moderate to fresh SE winds W of 91W, with seas of 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will linger through
late this morning before it lifts N as a warm front, ahead of a
strong cold front expected this afternoon. The cold front will
move into the Texas coastal waters this afternoon, then stall
through late Sat night as low pressure forms near the southern
Texas coast and rides NE along the front through Sun. The front
will then move SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon evening.
Strong reinforcing Arctic high pressure behind the front is
expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of
the Gulf Sun and Sun night, possible gale conditions over the
offshore waters of Tampico Sun night into Mon morning, and gales
over the waters offshore Veracruz Mon through early Mon night.
Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as
the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong
trades over the south-central to SW Caribbean south of 13N due to
the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge
and the Colombian/Panamanian low. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these
winds. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail
across the NW part of the basin. Widely scattered light passing
showers dot much of the NE, W-central and SW portions of the basin.

For the forecast, broad high pressure centered over the east-
central Atlantic will maintain a modest ridge N of the area to
produce mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central
Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early
next week, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong
speeds at night through Sun, then to near gale force afterward
into midweek. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will
slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft through
early next week. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late
Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front
before gradually diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from the Moroccan coast near 26N15W to
25N21W to 25N30W, where it transitions to a shear line that
extends to 31N38W. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are N
of the front and shear line. Very rough seas of 12-16 ft are seen
N of 28N between 20W and 35W. Elsewhere, surface ridging
dominates much of the Atlantic, with fresh to strong trades and
seas of 7-11 ft prevailing across much of the Atlantic S of 25N
and E of 60W. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas are S of
25N between 60W and 70W, with moderate or weaker winds and seas elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from
near Jacksonville, FL northeastward across the western Atlantic,
while a surface trough is E of this boundary from 31N71W to the
the NW Bahamas. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered across the
east-central Atlantic and extends a broad ridge W-SW to just S of
Bermuda. The trough and ridge will shift slowly NE through Sat
night. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop over the NW
forecast waters Sun evening through early Mon in advance of a
strong Arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore
northeastern Florida early Mon. Winds to near gale force will
develop just N of the area early on Mon. The front will reach from
near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Mon evening,
from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue evening,
then weaken as it reaches from near 31N51W to 26N60W then
stationary to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Wed afternoon. Fresh
to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the
front Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon, becoming mostly fresh
NE winds Tue night and Wed within about 180 nm NW of the frontal boundary.

$$
Stripling
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

063
AXNT20 KNHC 251032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jan 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving across
the Texas and NE Mexican coastal waters early this morning will
move SE across the entire basin today through Mon evening. Strong
reinforcing arctic high pressure building behind the front is
expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of
the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the offshore
waters of Tampico Sun night through Mon morning, and gales over
the waters near Veracruz Mon morning through around midnight Mon.
Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin later today,
and reaching 16 or 17 ft over the SW Gulf late on Mon. Conditions
will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front
moves SE into the NW Caribbean and high pressure builds across the
region. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from equatorial Africa westward into
the Atlantic near 06.5N11W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W
to 00.5N29W to 01.5N41W to 00N51W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from the equator to 03N between 03W
and 16W. Similar convective activity is from 03N to 11N between 25W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1009 mb low is analyzed near 27.5N94.5W, with a stationary
front extending northeastward into the central LA coast and
western Vermilion Bay, while a cold front extends from the low
S-SW into the NE Mexico coast just N of Tampico. A warm front
also extends across the far NE Gulf waters of the Florida Big Bend.
Scattered showers are seen along and E of the cold front and
stationary front. Recent derived satellite imagery also shows fog
banks forming between the coast and both aforementioned frontal
boundaries in the W and NE Gulf, so mariners should be aware for
the potential for reduced visibility in these areas. Recent
satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh SE winds
and 2-5 ft across much of the basin ahead of the front.
Immediately behind the front, winds are quickly veering from the
NW at fresh to strong speeds, with seas are building to 5 to 7 ft
per local buoy data.

For the forecast, the low pressure along the cold front will
track NE into Louisiana today, allowing the cold front to move SE
across the entire basin today through Mon evening. Strong
reinforcing arctic high pressure building behind the front is
expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of
the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the offshore
waters of Tampico Sun night through Mon morning, and gales over
the waters near Veracruz Mon morning through around midnight Mon.
Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin today and
tonight. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through
Wed as the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean and high pressure
builds settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to
keep alert with the latest forecasts.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic high pressure is centered over the eastern Atlantic and
extends a broad ridge westward along 28N-29N to near 60W. This
pattern is producing a modest pressure gradient across the basin
this morning. The most recent satellite scatterometer data
indicated moderate to locally fresh trades across most of the
basin with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for fresh to strong trades
and seas of 6 to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia. Fresh trade
winds across the Tropical Atlantic and into the Lesser Antilles is
maintaining large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic, and
spreading seas of 6 to 8 ft through the Atlantic Passages of the
Lesser Antilles, and 4 to 7 ft in the lee of the islands. Moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the NW Caribbean.
Scattered light to moderate showers dot the waters N of 13N east of 72W.

For the forecast, broad high pressure over the eastern Atlantic
will maintain a ridge westward into the central Atlantic to
produce mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean
as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Tue, while
fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E
swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early
next week, with seas lingering to 8 ft through early Wed. A cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from
eastern Cuba to northern Honduras by late Tue into Wed, weakening
to a shearline Thu. Strong northerly winds will follow the front
before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing
to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure
builds southward across the N Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from just S of Bermuda westward to a
weak 1020 mb low just off shore of Jacksonville, and then inland
across north Florida just S of Daytona Beach, FL. A surface trough
is analyzed E of the front and runs from 31N60W to 27N73W.
Another surface tough is analyzed from 31N57W to 23N65W, with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near both troughs.
Fresh to strong E to SE winds generally prevail north of 29N and
west of 65W to 80W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft in mixed N and E-SE swell.

High pressure of 1028 mb located W of the Madeira Islands near
30N21W dominates the remainder of the forecast region, extending a
broad ridge westward along 28N-29N to near 60W. Under this
weather pattern, a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and
seas of 6 to 9 ft is noted from 05N to 25N and E of 40W,
including the Cabo Verde Islands. In the far east Atlantic, large
lingering N swell with seas of 12 to 16 ft persists near the
Canary Islands and offshore Morocco. Moderate to fresh trades are
occurring S of 22N and W of 40W, including the Caribbean
Passages, where seas are 7 to 10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere within the ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SW winds will
develop over the NW forecast waters late this afternoon through
early Mon in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is
expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Mon morning. SW
winds to near gale force will develop just N of the area early on
Mon. The front will reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and
to west Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and
to eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and
weaken as it reaches from near 31N50W to the SE Bahamas and to
eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue
afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu as
another strong cold front moves out across the western forecast
waters, reaching 31N60W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening.

$$
Stripling
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

604
AXNT20 KNHC 261045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front continues to
move E-SE across the Gulf this morning, and extends from the
Florida Big Bend southwestward to 20N94W then southward and
inland across Mexico E of Coatzacoalcos. Strong to near gale-
force N winds and rough to very rough seas are found behind the
front. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicated that
northerly gales were occurring offshore Tampico, and are expected
to begin across the waters near Veracruz by sunrise. These gale
conditions are forecast to continue offshore Tampico through this
morning and offshore Veracruz through late Mon night. The cold
front will sweep across the rest of the basin tonight through Mon
evening. Seas are expected to quickly build across the Gulf region
through Mon reaching 16 or 17 ft across SW portions. Marine
conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the
front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure
settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep up
with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03.5N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 03.5N19W to 04N43W and to 00.5N50W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed south of 08N
between 13W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the western and SW Gulf.

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend southwestward to
20N94W then southward and inland across Mexico E of Coatzacoalcos.
Modified arctic air is spilling across the entire basin behind the
front to produce a blanket of cold air stratus behind the front.
Area radars show fine lines of moderate showers along and ahead of
the front across the eastern Gulf and into Florida, with a few
isolated strong showers. Gulf buoys show seas have reached 10 ft
across NW and SW central portions, outside of the strongest winds.
Winds offshore of Tampico are likely 12-13 ft already. Ahead of
the front, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate
seas to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will sweep across the rest of
the basin through Mon evening with very rough seas expected to
quickly build across the basin today and tonight. Marine
conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front
moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure
settles across the northern Gulf. The high will shift southeastward
Thu as low pressure develops in the far western Gulf along the
next cold frontal boundary. This front is expected to reach from
the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally stable conditions prevail across the Caribbean waters.
Satellite imagery shows scattered shallow light showers extending
across the basin from south of Jamaica east and southeastward to
the Lesser Antilles. A broad high pressure ridge north of the
area supports fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas to
near 8 ft off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly
breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the north- central and
eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will slide SE and
weaken through Tue and maintain a ridge N of the Caribbean basin,
supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central
Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters, while fresh
winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell
over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early next
week, with seas lingering near 8 ft through early Wed. A cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean late today and begin to stall
from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong
northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing
to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed
night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across
the N Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 mb high is centered NE of Bermuda near 35N54W and extends a
broad ridge southwestward across the NW Bahamas, south Florida
and through the Straits of Florida. A 1011 mb low center of
located over central Georgia, with a strong cold front then
trailing southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. A tight
pressure gradient between the ridge and the low center supports
fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas to 8 ft north of
28N and west of 75W. Farther east, a cold front enters the
tropical Atlantic near 31N39W and continues southwestward to
28N50W and then as a stationary front to 31N63W. Moderate to
locally fresh E winds and rough seas 8 to 12 ft in N swell are
found north of the boundary. The remainder of the basin is under
the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate
to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas 7 to 10 ft
south of 25N and between the Bahamas and Africa. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas
prevail. A band of multilayer clouds associated with very strong
winds aloft persist across the tropical Atlantic, extending from
NE South America all the way to W Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds over the
NW forecast waters will continue through mid morning in advance of
a strong cold front that is expected to move offshore northeast
Florida this morning, accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The front will reach from near 31N73W to the NW
Bahamas and S Florida Mon evening, from near 31N57W to the Turks
and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to
become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the
SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong NW to
N winds and rough seas are expected W of the front this afternoon
through Tue afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to
dissipate on Thu as another cold front moves out across the
western forecast waters, reaching from near 29N55W to the central
Bahamas Fri morning, before stalling N of 24N Fri night.

$$
Stripling
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

562
AXNT20 KNHC 271041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jan 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has moved
southeast of the basin and into the NW Caribbean overnight, and
extends from the NW Bahamas southwestward across central Cuba and
into south central Belize. 1039 mb high pressure across SW
Louisiana and SE Texas extends a ridge south and southeastward
behind the front, forcing strong northerly winds across the
entire basin, except across NW portions, where moderate N to NE
winds prevail. NW gales near Veracruz has diminished slightly
overnight, to around 35 kt, where seas are 16-18 ft, as confirmed
by overnight satellite altimeter data. Very rough seas of 12 ft
and higher prevail elsewhere S of 20N across most of the Bay of
Campeche, and near the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and
through the Yucatan Channel. Gales off of Veracruz are expected
to diminish to 25-30 kt by sunrise. Marine conditions will improve
from NW to SE across the basin today through Wed as the front
moves farther southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high
pressure settles across the northern Gulf.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong W Atlantic cold front extends
through 31N69W southwestward across the NW Bahamas and through
central Cuba. Behind the front, strong high pressure across the NW
Gulf of Mexico extends east and southeastward behind the front,
and is forcing strong NW to N winds and rough seas across the
Atlantic waters. Northerly gales have been occurring overnight near
and offshore NE Florida to the Cape Canaveral area over and east
of the Gulfstream, and are expected to diminish below gale-force
by sunrise. Seas in this area area are 10-13 ft in N swell moving
against the Gulfstream current. The front will move from near
31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba this evening, then
become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 29N55W to the
SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. As this occurs, winds will
gradually diminish from NW to SE today and tonight. Moderate to
large NW swell generated behind the front will gradually move SE
of this area tonight through Wed.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Significant rainfall event: A cold front is entering the NW
Caribbean and forecast to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras
by late today into Wed. As the front becomes nearly stationary
over the NW Caribbean, the northerly winds behind it will
transport abundant tropical moisture into the Gulf of Honduras and
northern Honduras, where the onshore flow will favor the
development of showers and thunderstorms. Deep tropical moisture
will remain in place across southern Mexico and northern Central
America supporting more shower and thunderstorm activity with
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, and localized amounts of 4 to
6 inches due to orographic effects. The heaviest rainfall is
expected in southern Mexico late tonight into Tue, and in northern
Guatemala and Belize Tue into early Wed, and well as in northern Honduras.

Please follow your local weather office for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N22W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 00N34W and to the coast of Brazil near
03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed
south of 06N and between 08W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the SW Gulf.

A strong cold front extends has moved southeast of the basin and
into the NW Caribbean overnight, and extends from the NW Bahamas
southwestward across central Cuba and into south central Belize.
1039 mb high pressure across SW Louisiana and SE Texas extends a
ridge south and southeastward behind the front, forcing strong
northerly winds across the entire basin, except across NW
portions, where moderate N to NE winds prevail. Seas of 8 ft and
greater are generally S of a line from Cedar Key, Florida to
28N88W to near Tampico, Mexico. Recent buoy observations show seas
of 10-12 offshore of the Tampa bay area. Peak seas across
the basin of 15-18 ft are over the SW Gulf across and downwind of
gales off of Veracruz.

For the forecast, marine conditions will improve from NW to SE
today through Wed as the front moves farther southeastward into
the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern
Gulf. The high will shift southeastward on Thu as low pressure
develops in the north- central Gulf along the next cold front.
This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to
Veracruz by Fri evening and move SE of the basin Sat. Another
round of strong northerly winds will follow this front, with gale-
force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has moved into the NW Caribbean overnight, extending
from central Cuba to south central Belize. A few clusters of
moderate showers are along the front. Strong northerly winds to 30
kt and rough seas are noted behind the front, as depicted by
overnight satellite scatterometer data. Seas of 10-12 ft are
currently across the Yucatan Channel. Meanwhile, the remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong easterly winds and
rough seas to 9 ft are found off Colombia. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north- central
and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
slide E-SE and weaken through Tue night and maintain a ridge N of
the Caribbean basin. This pattern will support fresh trades over
the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N
Atlantic waters through early Wed, while fresh winds offshore of
Colombia pulse to strong at night through Thu. Large E swell over
the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside through Wed afternoon.
The cold front over the NW basin will move SE today and begin to
stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras this evening
through Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before
briefly diminishing to mostly fresh Wed morning, then increase to
fresh to strong Wed afternoon through Thu as stronger high
pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of Mexico. Mainly
moderate N winds and seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean Thu
night through Fri night. Looking ahead, a new strong cold front
will move into the NW basin Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning
off NE Florida.

A strong cold front extends from 31N69W across the NW Bahamas and
into central Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along this
boundary. Fresh to near gale-force N winds and rough seas prevail
behind this boundary. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are
found ahead of the front to 60W and north of 28N. The rest of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that
extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 30N40W to the central
Bahamas. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to
rough seas in a mix of E and N swell are found south of 25N and
east of 65W to 30W. A cold front is found SE of the central
Atlantic high, from 31N20W to 28N35W, with moderate to fresh winds
on both sides of the front.

In the far NE Atlantic, a strong low pressure off Ireland is
producing fresh to strong W winds and rough seas to the area north
of the Canary Islands and east of 25W. Northerly swell associated
with this feature is progressing southward, producing seas of
8-16 ft north of 25N and east of 55W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba this evening, then
become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 29N55W to the
SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. The frontal boundary will
meander across this area through Thu, when new high pressure
across the Gulf of Mexico will build eastward into the W Atlantic
and freshen winds behind the lingering front through Thu evening.
Looking ahead, another strong cold front will enter the western
waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to deepen
rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun.

$$
Stripling
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

546
AXNT20 KNHC 281031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jan 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant rainfall event: Moist onshore flow to the north of a
weakening frontal boundary, extending from the E coast of Cuba to
inland portions along the Honduras-Nicaragua border, will support
heavy rainfall through late Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall
possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and
coastal Belize. In particular, strong moisture convergence behind
the frontal boundary, where it intersects the hilly terrain over
northwest Honduras, may create the potential for isolated areas
of more than 8 inches of rainfall through late Thu, impacting
various communities to include Tela, Puerto Cortes, and San Pedro
Sula. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be
aware of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through
mid week. Please follow your local weather office for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N17.5W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N17.5W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. A
surface trough is analyzed along 47W from 07N to the equator.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from south of 07N and
between 14W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1031 mb high pressure centered near the SE Louisiana-Mississippi
border dominates the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. However, moderate to
locally fresh N to NE winds and rough seas of 7 to 9 ft are still
occurring across the western Straits of Florida and in the
Yucatan Channel, while seas of 6 to 8 ft are gradually subsiding
across the Bay of Campeche. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are
noted across much of the Gulf except over the offshore waters from
Florida to Louisiana to SE Texas, where dry offshore flow has
cleared the skies.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will
prevail across the the southeastern half of the Gulf today before
new high pressure moves to the NW Gulf coast this evening and
shifts east-southeastward through Thu, which will freshen winds
across the SE Gulf. Another strong cold front will reach the Texas
coastal waters Thu night. This front is expected to move SE and
reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz by Fri night and move
SE of the basin Sat afternoon. Strong high pressure behind this
front will force strong to near gale-force northerly winds behind
the front, with gale-force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat
morning, then develop across the NE Gulf waters to offshore of
central Florida Sat afternoon and evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the east coast of Cuba to near the
border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and inland. The pressure gradient
between this front and the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is
resulting in fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft over
much of the NW Caribbean. A modest pressure gradient also exists
in the south-central Caribbean, forcing fresh to strong NE winds
to 30 kt and rough seas to 9 ft near and offshore of NW Colombia.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure across the N Gulf of Mexico
will begin to move E this evening through Fri. This will induce
fresh to strong N winds across the NW Caribbean behind the front,
and force it slowly eastward, reaching from E Cuba to the SE
coast of Nicaragua Thu morning, then stall and begin to weaken
from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Panama border Thu evening
through Fri. An unusually strong cold front will move into the NW
basin Sat morning and move southeastward, merging with the old
lingering front from E Cuba to central Panama Sat evening, then
reach from eastern Hispaniola to the NW coast of Colombia by Sun
evening. Strong to near gale-force N winds are expected behind this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to the east coast of Cuba. A few
showers are evident near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are behind the front, with 8 to 12 ft seas in NW to N swell
east of 75W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas
are within about 300 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by a ridge extending from 1024
mb high pressure centered near 26N27W. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds are noted south of 22N and east of 60W, where seas
are 7 to 9 ft in mixed E and N swell.

In the NE Atlantic, a stationary front extends from the coast of
Morocco westward to 29N36W. No significant weather is associated
with this feature. Large northerly swell spreads across the
eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the
area. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are found north of 21N and east of 40W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front extending
into Cuba will become stationary and weaken as it reaches from
near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba this evening, then
will meander across this area through Thu. New high pressure
across the Gulf of Mexico will build eastward into the W Atlantic
and freshen winds behind the lingering front Thu through Thu
evening. An unusually strong cold front will enter the western
Atlantic waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to
deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic this weekend, inducing a
large area of westerly gale-force winds across the local waters N
of 24N Sat evening through Sun evening. The front is expected to
reach from 31N74W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, and from 31N62W to
eastern Hispaniola Sun evening.

$$
Stripling
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)