ACUS48 KWNS 100941
SWOD48
SPC AC 100940

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the
central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is
forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the
week, as another trough takes its place further west across the
Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high
pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday
and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday.
Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward
into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the
airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late
week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm
development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/10/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 110947
SWOD48
SPC AC 110946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in
the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be
favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower
forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high
pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorm development.

..Broyles.. 01/11/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 120939
SWOD48
SPC AC 120938

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain
over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This
pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the
continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result,
cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of
the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S.
through early next week.

..Broyles.. 01/12/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 120955
SWOD48
SPC AC 120954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain
over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This
pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the
continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result,
cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of
the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S.
through early next week.

..Broyles.. 01/12/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 130937
SWOD48
SPC AC 130935

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast
to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result,
northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the
continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are
expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will
keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation
through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be
unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is
not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/13/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 140931
SWOD48
SPC AC 140930

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance generally indicates that amplified mid-level
troughing, evolving by late week to the east of the Rockies, will be
maintained through this coming weekend, before a fairly prominent
ridge near and offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia
coast weakens and redevelops to the west/northwest. However, even
as flow trends less amplified, it appears that a broadly confluent
westerly to northwesterly regime to the east of the Rockies may
continue to support a series of southeastward developing cold
surface ridges. Toward the middle of next week, this may become
less of an influence across the southwestern into western Gulf
Basin, beneath a belt of strengthening mid/upper westerlies
emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. It is possible that
low-level moistening and forcing for ascent could become supportive
of sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm development by
Tuesday/Wednesday across the northwestern Gulf. However, it is not
yet clear that this will impact areas inland of the Gulf coast, or
become particularly strong.

..Kerr.. 01/14/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 150949
SWOD48
SPC AC 150947

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified
mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to
the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming
weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near
the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and
perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread
remains evident within and among the various model output concerning
shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale
split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts
on the downstream flow remain unclear.

In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf
Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening
belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific,
and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies
near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week.
However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the
period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying
Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland destabilization.

..Kerr.. 01/15/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 160826
SWOD48
SPC AC 160825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the
Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface
high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with
cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much
in the way of thunderstorm potential.

The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of
the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper
trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over
western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during
the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop.
Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited
destabilization.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 160836
SWOD48
SPC AC 160834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the
Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface
high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with
cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much
in the way of thunderstorm potential.

The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of
the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper
trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over
western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during
the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop.
Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited
destabilization.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 170856
SWOD48
SPC AC 170855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during
the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the
country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may
develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and
possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend.
These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the
TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the
Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a
developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain
shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across
portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early
Thursday morning.

Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced
southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the
weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions
of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance
varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.

..Leitman.. 01/17/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 180847
SWOD48
SPC AC 180845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains
and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest
Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley
ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be
possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and
severe potential is low.

Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement
with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The
control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some
increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the
end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any
Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these
large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.

..Leitman.. 01/18/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 190932
SWOD48
SPC AC 190931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period.
Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from
TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for
showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for
ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe
potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the
western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and
Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of
the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and
once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm
activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast
states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be
insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a
cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the
arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.

..Leitman.. 01/19/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 200853
SWOD48
SPC AC 200852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the
Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and
cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country
throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could
develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days
4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast.
Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf
Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated
thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday
afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the
Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should
remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to
convection becoming undercut by the cold front.

..Leitman.. 01/20/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 210837
SWOD48
SPC AC 210835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the
central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very
cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of
winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains
through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but
a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast
vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold
front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday.
Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm
potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and
the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely.
The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the
weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding
thunderstorm potential through the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 01/21/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 220856
SWOD48
SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will
develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the
Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue
to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front,
modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak
instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and
warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated
thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern
GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe
potential within the warm sector.

By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the
Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of
the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing
reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the
Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.

..Leitman.. 01/22/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 230955
SWOD48
SPC AC 230953

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week
with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the
West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and
reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high
pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture
transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely.

..Lyons.. 01/23/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 240957
SWOD48
SPC AC 240956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the
remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in
the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple
perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same
time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor
northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow
for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry
and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through
day 8.

..Lyons.. 01/24/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 250950
SWOD48
SPC AC 250948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather concerns are negligible for the extended forecast
period. Continued eastern US troughing, reinforced by northwesterly
flow out of southern Canada will replenish a cold, dry and stable
air mass underneath Arctic high Pressure. While some surface
cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic
coast into next weekend, offshore winds should preclude robust
moisture return, negating any thunderstorm or severe risk for the
next several days.

..Lyons.. 01/25/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 261000
SWOD48
SPC AC 260958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A
robust Arctic air mass associated with continued troughing over the
eastern US will be reinforced by several additional perturbations
moving out of Canada and a building western US ridge. As the flow
pattern aloft amplifies, surface cyclogenesis appears possible over
the eastern Gulf and Atlantic seaboard this weekend, further
increasing offshore flow and limiting substantial inland moisture return/destabilization. Thus, thunderstorm potential appears
negligible through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 01/26/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 270951
SWOD48
SPC AC 270950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential in the extended forecast period is very
low. Broad-scale eastern US troughing will strengthen this weekend
as a clipper-style trough dives out of Canada an rapidly intensifies
along the Eastern Seaboard. A surface low will develop over the
eastern Gulf and rapidly deepen over the western Atlantic into early
next week. Western US ridging and strong surface high pressure over
the central US will keep substantial inland moisture return unlikely
for the foreseeable future.

..Lyons.. 01/27/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 280957
SWOD48
SPC AC 280956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A
highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue
through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A
prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong
surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will
support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass
over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture
transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm
potential for the next several days.

..Lyons.. 01/28/2026

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