FOUS11 KWBC 091959
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 00Z Tue Jan 13 2026


...Central/Southern Plains...
Day 1...

Closed low exiting the CO Plains this afternoon will continue to
weaken as it moves eastward. Snow will diminish in coverage after
00Z but some light accumulation is possible through Kansas and into
Missouri.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Shortwave exiting the Plains will combine with a stronger forming
closed mid-level low plunging southeastward out of south central
Canada tomorrow morning, favoring surface low development over
Lower Michigan. A deformation zone of snow will envelope the
northern Great Lakes with a focus for at least some brief heavy
snow beneath the developing TROWAL that sets up over the U.P. of
Michigan. The surface low is forecast to pull into Ontario Sunday
morning, gradually ending the synoptic snow for Michigan with a
short lake-enhanced/effect period of snow. On its heels will be
another Canadian shortwave Sunday evening through Monday morning
with only light snow of around an inch. WPC probabilities for at
least 4 inches of snow with the lead system this weekend are around
50% in the Porcupine and Huron Mountains in the U.P. and
northwestern Lower Michigan. Three-day totals could eclipse 8
inches in favored areas (30-50% chance).

Fracasso


...Northeast & Central Appalachians...
Days 1-3...

The same storm responsible for the snow over the northern Great
Lakes Saturday night into Sunday will also produce a hazardous
wintry mix across the interior Northeast and heavy snow in northern
New England. A strong >750kg/m/s IVT will direct copious amounts
of moisture northward Saturday into Saturday night along the
Northeast coastline. At the same time, a cold front will inject
just enough cold/dry air at the surface with Canadian high pressure
to the north creating a weak CAD signature over the Northeast.
This healthy 850-700mb WAA will support a classic overrunning setup
of >0C air aloft causing a mixture of sleet/freezing rain to
unfold beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Saturday
night/early Sunday morning. Guidance has trended weaker with the
primary low over southeast Canada Saturday night, and with a
developing secondary coastal low near southern New England, the
expectation is for sub- freezing surface temperatures to persist
longer. One potential issue for heavier snow in northern New
England is the potential for a 700-300mb dry slot that could sap
moisture in the DGZ aloft over northern NY and northern VT/NH.
Thus, the main hazard outside of far northern New England or Maine,
is expected to be associated with freezing rain.

Still, whether it is ice or snow, many of the interior mountain
ranges such as the Catskills, Berkshires, Greens, Adirondacks, and
Whites are favored to see the heaviest wintry precipitation
Saturday night and into Sunday. As the coastal low takes over on
Sunday, lake-effect snow showers are likely to continue down wind
of Lakes Erie and Ontario while northern Maine would be more likely
to see extended periods of moderate snowfall through Sunday night.
WPC probabilities indicate moderate chances (60-80%) for minor ice accumulations over a tenth of an inch across the Berkshires,
Greens, Adirondacks, and Whites and have increased with this
forecast iteration. Low chances (10-20%) for ice greater than a
quarter of an inch in the Adirondacks and southern
Greens/Berkshires. Regarding snowfall, WPC probabilities for >4"
are moderate- (70-90%) over the northern Green/White Mountains and
northern Maine. Northern Maine has the best chances for witnessing
locally heavy snowfall with low chance probabilities (10-30%) for
snowfall totals >8". With lake enhanced snowfall possible in wake
of a cold frontal passage on Sunday, the Tug Hill and Chautauqua
Ridge are sporting moderate-to- high chances (50-80%) for localized
snowfall totals >4" through Sunday night.

Additionally, as strong height falls cross the Ohio Valley
Saturday night before impacting the central Appalachians and Mid-
Atlantic on Sunday, snow squalls and upslope-enhanced snowfall is
likely. A coating to an inch of snow is possible within isolated to
scattered snow squalls as they swing from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, with more snow likely in the central Appalachians.
WPC probabilities for >4" are 20-50% across the Alleghenies of
western MD and WV.


Snell


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FOUS11 KWBC 100814
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

An upper-level low over northern MN this morning will project
healthy PVA over the Great Lakes, as well as strong 700mb Q-vector
convergence over northern MI and MI's Upper Peninsula (U.P.). A
plume of 700-300mb moisture wrapping around the northern flank of
the 700mb low will coincide within a TROWAL that focuses a band of moderate-to-heavy snow over the northern Great Lakes. The storm
system will progress east into southern Ontario by Sunday morning
and snow will begin to taper off by late Sunday morning. Most
guidance shows anywhere from 4-8" of snowfall as far west as the
Porcupine Mountains of MI's western U.P. to the Hurons in the heart
of the U.P. and much of the eastern U.P.. Farther south, the
northern-most locations of Michigan's Mitten are forecast to
receive 4-8" of snowfall as well, with localized totals topping 10"
possible where lake-enhanced snow bands stick around longest. Snow
fall totals of 1-4" are also anticipated along the coast of WI and
the western most counties of MI. The WSSI shows Minor Impacts
across all these regions, suggesting residents are likely to
contend with hazardous travel conditions Saturday night and into
Sunday morning.

In wake of this storm system, two more Canadian clipper systems
will race towards the Great Lakes. The first brings light snowfall
to northern MN Sunday afternoon and then into the northern Great
Lakes Sunday night. It is moisture starved and progressive, so
totals will generally range between a coating-3". As that upper-
level shortwave trough heads for the Northeast on Monday, another
clipper over the Canadian Prairies will track into the Upper
Midwest Monday night. This system has a little more moisture to
work with, but boundary layer temperatures are milder and may
result in more of a snow/rain mix on Tuesday. Both wintry setups
will be closely monitored, but snowfall totals are likely to
produce minor snowfall totals rather than highly impactful amounts
at this time.


...Northeast, Ohio Valley, & Central Appalachians...
Days 1-3...

On the eastern flank of the approaching Great Lakes storm system, a
strong IVT topping 750 kg/m/s and an advancing 925-700mb WAA will
provide rich moisture and strong low-level forcing to produce
periods of snow and a wintry mix over the interior Northeast.
Freezing rain will be most common today in northern PA, the
Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks, Berkshires, and Green Mountains.
Latest WPC probabilities show moderate chancres (40-60%) for ice
accumulations over one-tenth of an inch in the Adirondacks, Greens,
and Berkshires, whereas the rest of the listed areas are generally
expected to witness ice accumulations less than one-tenth. Farther
north, snow will be the more common precipitation type from the
northern Adirondacks and White Mountains through northern Maine.
This is due to their locations farther north of the storm track of
the primary low in Ontario, and their placement north of a
secondary coastal low in the Gulf of Maine. The coastal low will
deepen southwest of Nova Scotia on Sunday and support a
deformation zone of heavy snow over northern Maine through Sunday
night. Snow should finally taper off by Monday morning, although
some blowing snow may still be ongoing across Maine. WPC
probabilities show high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >6" in
northern Maine with low chances (10-30%) for some localized areas
near Caribou that could receive as much as a foot of snow.

This storm system over the Great Lakes will also be responsible for
other winter related hazards over the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. Ahead of an approaching 500mb vort max, a sharp low-
level cold front and healthy PVA aloft will support the development
of snow squalls Saturday afternoon as far west as Iowa that race
east towards northern IL and IN Saturday evening. Snow squalls will
race east through the OH Valley Saturday night and reach the Upper
OH Valley and central Appalachians by early Sunday morning. Light
accumulations of a coating to 1" are possible, but the concern is
rapid reductions in visibilities due to a combination of heavy snow
rates and gusty winds. Surface temperatures will also plummet below
freezing and could support quickly accumulating snowfall on roads.
Motorists should ensure they have a way to receive alerts for snow
squall warnings should they be issued.

Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front and snow squalls reach
the central Appalachians Sunday morning, upslope NWrly flow will
foster heavy mountains snow in the Potomac and Laurel Highlands
Sunday and into Sunday night. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-
high chances for snowfall totals >2", but there is a lower chance
scenario (10-30%) where the peaks of the Appalachians in eastern WV
and western MD receive as much as 4-6" of snow. Lastly, westerly
flow off Lakes Erie and Ontario will trigger lake effect snow bands
over the Chautauqua Ridge and over the Tug Hill Plateau Sunday and
into Sunday night. WPC probabilities depict moderate-to-high
chances for snowfall >4" through Sunday night. There will be
another chance for additional light snow over the Adirondacks and
Whites on Monday, but aside from the Tug Hill, snowfall will
generally be between a coating to 2" through early Tuesday morning.


Mullinax



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 101934
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 00Z Wed Jan 14 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-2...

An upper-level low over northern WI this evening will project
healthy PVA over the Great Lakes, as well as strong 700mb Q-vector
convergence over northern MI and MI's Upper Peninsula (U.P.). A
plume of 700-300mb moisture wrapping around the northern flank of
the 700mb low will coincide within a TROWAL that focuses a band of moderate-to-heavy snow over the northern Great Lakes. The storm
system will progress east into southern Ontario by Sunday morning
and snow will begin to taper off by late Sunday morning, but with lake-effect/enhanced snow continuing early Sunday as a brief surge
of northerly flow affects the region. Most guidance shows anywhere
from 4-8" of snowfall as far west as the Porcupine Mountains of
MI's western U.P. to the Hurons in the heart of the U.P. and much
of the eastern U.P.. Farther south, the northern-most locations of
Michigan's Mitten are forecast to receive 4-8" of snowfall as well,
with localized totals topping 10" possible where lake-enhanced
snow bands stick around longest. Snow fall totals of 1-4" are also
anticipated along the coast of WI and the western most counties of
MI. The WSSI shows Minor Impacts across all these regions,
suggesting residents are likely to contend with hazardous travel
conditions tonight and into Sunday morning.

Lastly, westerly flow off Lakes Erie and Ontario will trigger lake
effect snow bands over the Chautauqua Ridge and over the Tug Hill
Plateau Sunday and into Sunday night. WPC probabilities depict
moderate-to- high chances for snowfall >4" through Sunday night.
There will be another chance for additional light snow over the
Adirondacks and Whites on Monday, but aside from the Tug Hill where
up to 6" is possible, snowfall will generally be between a coating
to 2" through early Tuesday morning.


...Northeast...
Days 1-2...

On the eastern flank of the approaching Great Lakes storm system, a
strong IVT topping 750 kg/m/s and an advancing 925-700mb WAA will
provide rich moisture and strong low-level forcing to produce
periods of snow and a wintry mix over the interior Northeast and
New England. Freezing rain will be most common through tonight in
the Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks, Berkshires, and Green
Mountains. Latest WPC probabilities show moderate chancres (40-60%)
for ice accumulations over one-tenth of an inch in the
Adirondacks, Greens, and Berkshires, whereas the rest of the listed
areas are generally expected to witness ice accumulations less
than one-tenth. Farther north, snow will be the more common
precipitation type from the northern Adirondacks and White
Mountains through northern Maine. This is due to their locations
farther north of the storm track of the primary low in Ontario, and
their placement north of a secondary coastal low in the Gulf of
Maine. The coastal low will deepen southwest of Nova Scotia on
Sunday and support a deformation zone of heavy snow over northern
Maine through Sunday night. Snow should finally taper off by Monday
morning, although some blowing snow may still be ongoing across
Maine. WPC probabilities show high chances (60-80%) for snowfall
totals >6" in northern Maine with low chances (10-30%) for some
localized areas near Caribou that could receive as much as a foot
of snow. Still, given the climatology of snowfall across these
northern locations, only Minor Impacts are being depicted from the
WSSI.


...Ohio Valley & Central Appalachians...
Days 1-2...

This storm system over the Great Lakes will also be responsible for
other winter related hazards over the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. Ahead of an approaching 500mb vort max, a sharp low-
level cold front and healthy PVA aloft will support the development
of snow squalls beginning this afternoon as far west as Iowa that
race east towards northern IL and IN this evening. Snow squalls
will race east through the OH Valley tonight and reach the Upper
OH Valley and central Appalachians by early Sunday morning per the
12z CAMs and forecast snow squall parameters. Light accumulations
of a coating to 1" are possible, but the concern is rapid
reductions in visibilities due to a combination of heavy snow rates
and gusty winds. Surface temperatures will also plummet below
freezing and could support quickly accumulating snowfall and a
flash freeze on roads. Some snow squalls may also reach past the
terrain of the central Appalachians and into the Mid-
Atlantic/Interior Northeast Sunday afternoon. Motorists should
ensure they have a way to receive alerts for snow squall warnings
should they be issued and understand the risks of driving during a
snow squall.

Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front and snow squalls reach
the central Appalachians Sunday morning, upslope NWrly flow will
foster heavy mountains snow in the Potomac and Laurel Highlands
Sunday and into Sunday night. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-
high chances (40-70%) for snowfall totals >4". Lastly, westerly
flow off Lakes Erie and Ontario will trigger lake effect snow bands
over the Chautauqua Ridge and over the Tug Hill Plateau Sunday and
into Sunday night. WPC probabilities depict moderate-to- high
chances for snowfall >4" through Sunday night. There will be
another chance for additional light snow over the Adirondacks and
Whites on Monday, but aside from the Tug Hill, snowfall will
generally be between a coating to 2" through early Tuesday morning.


Snell/Mullinax



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FOUS11 KWBC 110812
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026


...Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, & Mid-Atlantic...
Day 1...

Snow squalls are continuing to race east across the Upper OH Valley
this morning that will soon track into the central Appalachians and
northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Snowfall totals will
most likely only resulting in a dusting, although some localized
totals up to 1" are possible. Farther north, snow squalls are also
possible across Upstate NY where the base of a 500mb low and
falling heights will tap into some Great Lakes moisture to trigger
rounds of snow squalls. Despite the minor amounts, rapid
accumulations on all surfaces can occur as temperatures in wake of
the cold frontal passage rapidly fall. Plus, bursts of snow and
gusty winds would lead to dramatic changes from clear visibility to
near whiteout conditions. Residents in these areas should be sure
to monitor any squalls and be on the lookout for any snow squall
warnings as they traverse these regions today. Snow squalls should
taper off by Sunday evening northeast PA and the Lower Hudson
Valley.

The heaviest snowfall will occur in the central Appalachians where
NWrly upslope flow generates enhanced snowfall rates in the Laurel
and Potomac Highlands. High pressure over the MS Valley will
quickly build in Sunday evening and snow should taper off by early
Monday morning. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances
(50-80%) for snowfall totals >4" in the >2,000ft peaks of eastern
WV, while western MD and the Laurel Highlands are most likely to
receive anywhere from 1-4" of snowfall. The WSSI shows Minor Impact
potential, suggesting hazardous travel conditions are likely in
affected areas.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1 & 3...

Cyclonic flow on the western flank of the departing storm system
over southeast Canada will keep some residual lake-enhanced snow
showers over the Michigan U.P. and Michigan's L.P.. As snow tapers
off over Michigan Sunday afternoon, the heaviest snow will unfold
along the Chautauqua Ridge of PA/NY and down wind of Lake Ontario.
Lake effect snow bands will weaken as the pressure gradient. WPC
probabilities show moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall totals

4" along the Chautauqua Ridge, while snowfall lingers longest over

the Tug Hill thanks their more favorable position east of a fast
moving 500mb vorticity maximum. WPC 48-hour probabilities (through
Monday night) depict the Tug Hill Plateau with high chances (>70%)
for snowfall totals >8" with some locations likely receiving over a
foot of snow.

Following a brief lull in snow on Monday, focus turns to Tuesday as
an amplifying shortwave trough in south-central Canada dives south
towards the Upper Midwest late Tuesday and into Wednesday. A
deepening clipper over Lake Superior will accompany an Arctic front
that races south over the Michigan U.P. Tuesday night. Strong low-
level CAA looks to reinvigorate the lake effect snow machine over
northern WI, the Michigan U.P., and the tip of Michigan's Mitt.
Latest WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for
snowfall totals over 4" in the Porcupine and Huron Mountains of the
Michigan U.P., with a broader footprint of moderate chance
probabilities (40-70%) for snowfall >2" from northern WI on east
to the the eastern Michigan U.P.. The western Michigan U.P. does
feature the best chances for locally heavier totals, depicted by
low-chance probabilities (10-30%) in the Porcupine and Huron
mountains, as well as the Keweenaw Peninsula. The WSSI-P does show low-to-moderate chances (20-50%) for Minor Impacts over these
aforementioned areas Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.


...Northern New England...
Day 1...

As the primary storm system over southeast Canada weakens and the
coastal low forms over the Gulf of Maine, periods of snow will
continue over northern Maine and the Whites through Sunday. Rates
will lessen this afternoon and evening, but lingering cyclonic flow
on the backside of the coastal storm (located north of Nova Scotia
by Sunday night) will keep snow in the forecast Sunday night. Snow
tapers off by Monday morning, leaving a swath of 6-12" of snowfall
over northern Maine. Farther south, additional ice accumulations
under a tenth of an inch are anticipated over Downeast Maine and
just north of the Maine coast. The WSSI depicts Minor Impacts over
northern Maine, highlighting the likelihood of hazardous travel
conditions. A pair of progressive shortwave troughs will bring some
additional light snow over the Adirondacks, Greens, Whites, and
northern Maine Monday and Tuesday but latest guidance shows
generally a coating-2" for these mountain ranges and northern Maine
through Tuesday night with some localized amounts approaching 4"
possible in the peaks of the Adirondacks.


Mullinax






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FOUS11 KWBC 111942
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 00Z Thu Jan 15 2026


...Central Appalachians...
Day 1...

Snow squalls are expected to wane by this evening over the Mid-
Atlantic as the associated cold front exits into the eastern
Atlantic Ocean and lapse rates weaken following sunset. Upslope
northwesterly flow into the terrain of the central Appalachians may
continue to produce moderate snowfall until early Monday morning
when this flow eventually weakens and dries out due to a more
westerly component to the winds. A few inches of additional
snowfall are likely across the Allegheny Mts of WV, western MD, and
southwest PA.


...Great Lakes & Northern New England...
Days 1-3...

Deep upper trough and attached closed low starts the period over
New England with an associated rapidly deepening surface low
quickly exiting towards Newfoundland. Lingering light to moderate
snowfall is possible tonight along with increasing winds across far
northern ME due to this area of low pressure. Latest WSSI depicts
Minor Impacts through tonight due to this continuing snowfall.

Meanwhile, cold northwesterly flow will weaken on Monday over the
Great Lakes and northern New England as an embedded shortwave
crosses the region with additional light snow downwind of Lake
Ontario and into the favorable upslope terrain of the Adirondacks,
northern Greens and Whites. Then by Tuesday a much stronger
shortwave and area of low pressure is expected to pass over or just
to the north of the Great Lakes. Initial WAA snow is possible over
the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday morning along with a glaze of
freezing rain, but snow and ice amounts are expected to remain
light. As this system exits to the east on Wednesday and upper
troughing deepens over the Great Lakes as well as increasing
northerly CAA, lake effect snow is forecast to pick up once again
along the shores of Lake Superior in the U.P. of MI.

For the entire period snowfall totals are expected to remain
mostly light outside of the Tug Hill Plateau and favorable
snowbelts in the U.P. of MI. WPC probabilities for over 8" of snow
through 00Z Thursday are 50-70% in the Tug Hill and 20-50% in the
MI U.P. from the Porcupine to Huron Mts.


Snell


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FOUS11 KWBC 120808
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Ongoing westerly flow over Lake Ontario will keep additional heavy
snowfall of 6-12" in the forecast today over the Tug Hill Plateau,
while minor amounts generally between 1-4" occurs around the
Buffalo area and the Adirondacks. By tonight, a Canadian clipper
system will race east over southern Ontario with just enough low-
level WAA and a plume of 700-300mb moisture aloft to support a
brief overrunning setup over the MN Arrowhead, northern WI, and the
western MI U.P.. Ice accumulations are likely to be less than a
tenth of an inch, but WPC probabilities show moderate chances

50%) for ice accumulations over on-ehundreth of an inch. Slick

spots on untreated surfaces are possible Monday night and into
Tuesday morning in affected areas.

As the clipper continues to advance east into southeast Canada, a
robust 500mb vorticity max diving south will accompany a strong
cold front that induces strong CAA over Lake Superior Tuesday
night. Snow will increase in intensity over the Michigan U.P. as
surface-850mb delta Ts dramatically increase and low-level lapse
rates sharpen. The upper-level trough continues to dive south
through the Great Lakes on Wednesday and the same CAA regime will
race south over Lake Michigan. Guidance is coming into better
agreement on the formation of a potent single-band LES setup
producing a swath of heavy snow over northwest IN that could
oscillate at times to as far west as the WI/IL lake shores and as
far east as southwest MI. Meanwhile, much of Michigan's Mitten will
contend with multi-band lake effect streamers as a surface trough
pivots over the Great Lakes Wednesday and into Wednesday night.
This same trough axis, along with the CAA over the Great Lakes,
will trigger lake-enhanced snowfall over northern OH, northwest PA,
and western NY by early Thursday morning. Snowfall will become
more synoptically-enhanced by early Thursday morning as a 700mb low
tracks over Lake Erie and would support heavy snowfall into the
day on Thursday as well.

24-hour WPC probabilities through 12Z Wednesday show
moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall totals >6" along the
Keweenaw Peninsula and both the Huron and Porcupine Mountains of
the MI U.P.. 24-hour probabilities through 12Z Thursday depict
northwest IN as having moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall
totals >6". Note that should 1-2"/hr rates materialize, localized
amounts approaching a foot of snow are possible. Lastly, through
12z Thursday, the first 6-12 hours of the impending winter storm
show low chances (10-30%) for snowfall totals >4", but with the
storm likely to produce additional heavy snow along the Chautauqua
Ridge and into western NY, expect heavier snowfall totals to
envelop these areas through Thursday. The WSSI-P currently shows moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for at least Minor Impacts over
northwest IN, northeast OH, and western NY through Thursday
morning.

...Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, & Northeast...
Days 3-3.5...

A robust 500mb shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will race
southeast toward the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. There remains a
fair amount of uncertainty and model spread that is making this
forecast tough in the Ohio Valley and as far east as the I-95
corridor, but the higher confidence areas are the spine of the
Appalachians. As the 500mb shortwave deepens into a closed upper
low Wednesday night, an accompanying strong cold front will
collide with the central Appalachians with strong 925-700mb layer
CAA. The combination of brisk NWrly flow and excellent PVA aloft
ahead of the upper low will produce heavy snowfall rates from the
Laurel Highlands of southern PA on south to the Blue Ridge and
Smokey Mountains. Snow is likely to continue beyond the scope of
this short-term discussion as cyclonic flow around the western
flank of the storm system sustains favorable upslope flow into the
central Appalachians. The WSSI-P is showing >50% chances for a
at least Minor Impacts over the Smokeys of TN/NC, and both the
windward slopes and peaks of the central Appalachians. Residents
and travelers should plan for a disruptive snow event in central
Appalachians Wednesday evening and into Thursday.

From the Ohio Valley on north through western PA and into the
Northeast the forecast is more murky. Guidance across the board
shows different evolutions and tracks of the aforementioned 500mb
low. The CMC shows a lack of deepening/phasing of 500mb vort
maxima that keeps the synoptic-scale forcing limited. The ECMWF/EC-
AIFS/UKMET camps show a closed low by tracking across the lower
Great Lakes and into the Northeast. To illustrate the ongoing
changes, the 00Z ECMWF from 24 hours ago had a closed low south of
Louisville, KY by 12Z Thursday, while the latest 00Z ECMWF has the
closed low near Cleveland, OH at the same time Thursday. Lastly,
the GFS/GEFS is farther south over the OH Valley that then heads
for the Mid-Atlantic coast as a weakening closed low. All these
evolutions lead to different snowfall footprints, particularly
along the I-95 corridor and northern Mid-Atlantic. No matter the
track of the upper-low, the meteorology involved supports periods
of snow north of the emerging 700mb low. The EPS/GEFS both show the
left-exit region of a strengthening jet streak off the southeast
coast being placed over the Northeast, which also pairs favorably
with 700mb Q-vector convergence on both GFS and ECMWF solutions
over the eastern Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Through 12Z
Thursday, WPC probabilities show northern OH (including the
Cleveland metro) on north and east along the Chautauqua Ridge and
the Adirondacks showing low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for >4" of
snowfall.

Residents and travelers across the Northeast will want to monitor
the forecast closely in the coming days as this complex forecast is
likely to change in the coming days. The lowest confidence in terms
of snowfall amounts and impacts are along the I-95 corridor as
potential scenarios range from a significant winter storm for areas
along I-95 in southern New England to minor snow accumulations at
most depending upon the strength and track of the approaching
upper-low. Not only are amounts unclear, but boundary layer
temperatures at the onset Wednesday night and early Thursday
morning would support rain as the initial precipitation type before
changing over to snow. For now, the spine of the Appalachians are
favored to see accumulating snowfall late Wednesday into Thursday.


Mullinax





$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 121909
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
209 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 00Z Fri Jan 16 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Slowly amplifying flow across the east will result in periods of
light synoptic snow, and more impressive lake effect snow (LES)
through the period.

Tonight, a surface trough will track rapidly eastward across the
eastern Great Lakes and into New England while weakening. Although
this feature is progressive and of modest intensity, the enhanced south-westerly flow in its wake will help spawn LES, especially
downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario through Tuesday morning. Slowly
rising heights within shortwave ridging Tuesday morning will bring
a quick end to this LES, but at least briefly heavy snow rates of
1"/hr (10-20% chance) will produce significant accumulations,
especially in the Tug Hill Plateau where WPC probabilities are
moderate (50-70%) for at least 4" of snow.

Thereafter, a series of fast-moving shortwave troughs will track
southeast downstream of an amplifying ridge across the western
CONUS. This will lead to a gradually deepening trough in the east,
with increasing cold advection within impressive cyclonic flow. The
first of these shortwaves will track across MI and into northern
New England late D1 into D2, pushing a surface low along the
US/Canada border through Wednesday. Some modest WAA will spread
light synoptically forced snow from WI into MI, but with only
modest accumulations.

More impressively, this low will drag an arctic cold front
southward behind it, aided by a secondary impulse which will track
towards the Gulf Coast helping to deepen the longwave trough with a
closed low over the Great Lakes. While there has been a lot of
uncertainty and latitudinal changes with this evolution the past
few model runs, impressive CAA behind this front will result in
impressive LES, especially in the north-wind lake effect belts
across the U.P., northern L.P., and south of Lake Michigan, with
additional LES likely into northeast Ohio and the Chautauqua Ridge
during D3. WPC probabilities for more than 4" of snow D2 reach
50-70% for parts of the U.P., and then expand to southeast of Lakes
Erie and Ontario D3, with the most significant snowfall likely in a
single band southeast of Lake Michigan (with possible Lake Superior
connection) across northern IN where 8+ inches of snow is possible
(30-50% chance).


...Central Appalachians through the Northeast...
Day 3...

Amplification of the mid-level pattern through Thursday will result
in an anomalous trough digging across the eastern CONUS, reflected
by NAEFS 500-700mb heights falling below the 0.5 percentile across
portions of the Mid-South and Southeast before 00Z Friday. While
this trough is impressive, there has been considerable variability
over the past several model cycles both in terms of the intensity
and placement of the core of this trough, most notably with the
position of the closed low likely to develop Thursday morning.

This closed low will manifest from a deepening shortwave tracking
almost due south out of Manitoba, while secondary energy rotates
towards the Gulf Coast. Together, these will amplify the trough as
noted above, with the lead shortwave closing off and forcing a
slightly negative tilt by the end of the forecast period. At the
same time, a powerful jet streak will arc increasingly poleward
over the Atlantic (downstream of this trough axis) to provide
intense left-exit diffluence overlapping the impressive mid-level
height falls and divergence. While this should support a deepening
surface low pressure, guidance has systematically backed off on the
intensity and southern latitude of this low, with any secondary low
development occurring too far east to bring heavy
snowfall/precipitation to the east coast despite the lead low
moving across northern New England.

The cluster analysis (00z/11 cycle) indicates that the GEFS is
likely underdispersive into D4 as 77% of its members make up one
cluster, which is also the most amplified and slowest due to
extremely different ridging intensity over northern Ontario. While
this solution can't be ruled out entirely, the trend in the GFS
heights combined with the more broad solution envelope of the other
ensembles indicates the more likely scenario is for a low pressure
moving through New England Thursday, with modest warm air aloft
(TROWAL) pivoting behind this low coincident with weak deformation
atop an inverted trough supporting heavier snow generally from
Lake Erie through northern New England. This robust ascent may
overlap effectively with a deepening DGZ as well, with the cold
column supporting fluffy SLR that can accumulate rapidly. While
confidence remains lower than usual at this time range, current WPC probabilities are moderate to high (50-90%) for at least 4" of
snow in the vicinity of Lake Ontario and northeast into the St.
Lawrence Valley and parts of the Adirondacks.

Farther southwest, there is higher confidence in brief but
impressive upslope snow behind the arctic front on Thursday.
Forecast soundings indicate a deepening PBL with theta-e lapse
rates around 0C/km, coincident with impressive ascent into the DGZ
and then lifting into the terrain, especially from the Laurel
Highlands south into the Southern Appalachians. Initially some of
this precipitation may be rain, but will quickly dynamically cool
(and thermally cool behind the front) leading to periods of heavy
snowfall beginning early Thursday and persisting through much of
D3. WPC probabilities have dropped a bit as QPF trends have been
more to the north, but still indicate a 30-50% chance for at least
4" of snow across the higher terrain of WV, with high probabilities

70% or more) for 2+ inches along most of the Appalachians from SW

NC through the Laurel Highlands of PA.


Weiss


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FOUS11 KWBC 130808
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

After a day of light snow across the Upper Great Lakes today thanks
to a Canadian clipper racing east across southern Ontario, a more
potent 500mb shortwave trough with an accompanying arctic cold
front will reinvigorate the lake-effect snow machine starting
tonight. Robust CAA in wake of the arctic front will result
numerous multi-banded streamers, especially over the northern half
of the U.P., northern and western L.P., and south of Lake
Michigan. Additional LES bands are likely over northeast Ohio, the
Chautauqua Ridge, and as far north as the Tug Hill late Wednesday
and through Thursday. The heaviest totals will be found over
northwest IN and far southwest MI where there is high confidence in
a potent single-band of LES that is likely to generate 1-2"/hr
snowfall rates. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances
(50-70%) for snowfall totals >6" in northwest IN with lower chances
(10-30%) for amounts exceeding 8". Given the intense mesoscale
forcing at play, seeing some localized amounts approaching 12"
cannot be ruled out. WPC's WSSI does depict Moderate Impact
potential in the hardest hit areas of northwest IN which could
result in delays and/or closures along I-94 and I-80.

Elsewhere, WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for over 4"
of snow across much of the U.P., while western MI (including
Traverse City) show moderate chances (>50%) for over 4 of snowfall.
For Wednesday and through Thursday, moderate-to-high chances
(50-70%) for snowfall >4" are depicted over northeast OH, the
Chautauqua Ridge, and the Tug Hull Plateau. Some areas along the
Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill could top 8" and localized amounts
approaching 12" are possible.


...Central Appalachians through the Northeast...
Days 2-3...

Over the past 12-24 hours, guidance has continued to trend farther
north with the track of the 500mb low traversing southern Ontario
Thursday AM that then heads into Upstate NY Thursday evening. The
mean 250-500mb mean trough axis is also becoming increasingly more
positive, which is resulting in less deepening of the developing
over Upstate NY by Thursday morning. With these trends, the best
divergence and moisture aloft will reside to the north of the 500mb
low over western and far northern NY. Guidance still disagrees as
to the duration and intensity of the snowfall, but the setup still
favors the development of a TROWAL over the region. Snow will
envelop the Adirondacks and North Country that could reach as far
south as the Finger Lakes. Snow is expected across much of northern
New England Thursday morning, but it is worth noting there is
evidence of a 700-300mb dry slot quickly advancing in from the
southwest that could try to end snowfall sooner over the
Adirondacks, Hudson and Champlain Valleys, and into the Green and
White Mountains. The one area that could still see wrap around
snow is western NY and the Chautauqua Ridge where the pivoting
TROWAL and lake enhanced snow bands are likely to linger through
the remainder of Thursday. Snow is also expected to the north of
the 500mb vort max over northern Maine before tapering off Friday
morning.

WPC 24-hour probabilities show the NY's shores along Lake Ontario
and NY's North Country as having moderate chances (40-60%) for
snowfall totals >6" through Thursday night with the Tug Hill
Plateau sporting low chances (10-30%) for localized snowfall totals
approaching a foot. The peaks of the Green and White Mountains are
also likely to see over 6" of snow while northern Maine shows low-
to-moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall totals >4".

Farther south, guidance has also gradually trended less snowy in
the central and southern Appalachians. Persistent upslope low
amidst cyclonic flow that taps into Great Lakes moisture is likely
to produce anywhere from 1-4" of snow from the Laurel Highlands on
south through the Potomac Highlands and into the Blue Ridge and
Smokey Mountains of TN/NC. The >3,000ft mountain ranges in eastern
WV and the peaks of the Smokeys shows moderate chances (40-60%) for
localized snowfall totals >4" through Thursday afternoon. Snowfall
will taper off by Thursday evening as high pressure over the South
builds in over the region Thursday night.


...Upper Midwest & Northern Plains...
Day 3...

On Thursday, another Canadian clipper system ushers in another
round of snow over northern MN, northern WI, and the western U.P..
A plume of moisture associated with a ribbon of 850-700mb FGEN will
produce some minor snowfall accumulations Thursday afternoon. As
the snow via WAA moves into the U.P. Thursday night, another arctic
front will race south through the Northern Plains. The strong CAA
and steepening lapse rates may trigger snow squalls over the
Dakotas and as far west as eastern MT. WPC probabilities
favor northern MN and northwest WI for low-to-moderate chances
(30-50%) for snowfall totals >4", although a coating to 1" due to
passing snow squalls in the Northern Plains are also possible,
along with strong wind gusts that could result in whiteout
conditions locally Thursday night and early Friday morning.


Mullinax




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FOUS11 KWBC 132020
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 00Z Sat Jan 17 2026


...Northern Plains through the Northeast, and the Appalachians...
Days 1-3...

A trough across the eastern CONUS will amplify impressively and
periodically re-load through the period as repeated shortwaves
intensify and drop southeast from Canada. The core of this trough
will deepen most impressively to reach the Gulf Coast Thursday aftn
(NAEFS 500mb heights below the 1st percentile within the CFSR
climatology), but remain below the 10th percentile with secondary
amplification occurring on Friday.

Within this trough, and really the driving factor behind amplifying
this trough, will be repeating shortwaves digging out of Canada and
racing southeast through the flow. The first of these will move
from Minnesota to the Ohio Valley D1, with a secondary piece
approaching the Gulf Coast, with both of these impulses rotating
eastward during D2, producing the most intense troughing on
Thursday. Within this progressive flow, even as these lead impulses
rotate away on Friday, the next vorticity lobe will follow
immediately in its wake, moving from the Northern Plains to the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on D3.

This pattern will produce multiple days of lake effect snow (LES)
downwind of the Great Lakes, especially in the more northerly belts
as winds become NNW beneath strong CAA. 3-day WPC probabilities for
LES are high (>70%) for more than 8 inches in the higher elevations
of the U.P. including the Huron and Porcupine Mountains, as well as
along the E/SE shore of Lake Michigan into northern Indiana, and
across the Tug Hill Plateau, with lower but still significant
probabilities (30-50%) for 8+ inches along the Chautauqua Ridge.
The heaviest LES is likely in a single band off Lake Michigan into
SW MI/NW IN late Wednesday through late Thursday.

Across the Central Appalachians and Northeast, the lead shortwave
will not only work together with an Atlantic-offshore jet streak to
create low pressure development across the Northeast, but also drag
an arctic front from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic on
Thursday. This will create a short period of heavy upslope snow
from the higher elevations of NC through the Laurel Highlands of PA
where WPC probabilities are moderate (50-70%) for at least 4
inches, generally above 3000 ft, with locally 6-8 inches possible.
Farther north into Upstate NY and northern New England, a weak
TROWAL may pivot westward north of the surface low and combine with
an inverted surface trough to enhance snowfall D2. Trends in the
guidance continue to shift the heaviest snowfall north into Canada,
but a narrow corridor of heavy snow is likely, reflected by WPC
probabilities for 6+ inches that are 50-70% from eastern Lake
Ontario (where some lake enhancement is likely) through the St.
Lawrence Valley and the Adirondacks.

Finally, on D3 with the next shortwave digging out of Saskatchewan
into the Upper Midwest, height falls and modest warm/moist
advection will create a swath of generally light snow, followed by
strong winds behind yet another arctic front. WPC probabilities
indicate only a 10-30% chance for at least 4 inches of snow for
parts of SD/MN/WI, but WSSI-P suggests an increasing threat for
blowing snow impacts just behind this wave, so travelers should be
prepared for hazardous driving Friday despite the modest snowfall
amounts forecast.


Weiss


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FOUS11 KWBC 140751
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026


...Northern Plains through the Northeast, and the Appalachians...
Days 1-3...

A longwave trough across the eastern CONUS will amplify and
periodically re-load through the upcoming weekend as repeated
shortwaves intensify and drop southeast from Canada. The core of
this trough will deepen most impressively over the Gulf Coast
Thursday aftn (ECMWF 500mb heights as low as the 0.5 climatological percentile). Within this progressive flow, even as these lead
impulses rotate away on Friday, the next shortwave trough will
follow immediately in its wake, moving from the Northern Plains to
the Mid-Mississippi Valley Friday night. Similar to the Southeast
on Thursday afternoon, 500mb heights over the Missouri River Valley
are likely to be as low as the 0.5 climatological percentile.

The headlining weather hazard, aside from some of the coldest
temperatures and wind chills of the season-to-date, will be the
multiple days of lake effect snow (LES) downwind of the Great
Lakes, especially in the more northerly belts as winds become NNW
beneath strong CAA. WPC probabilities for LES are high (>70%) for
more than 8 inches in the higher elevations of the U.P. including
the Huron and Porcupine Mountains, as well as along the E/SE shore
of Lake Michigan into northern Indiana. Lake-enhanced snowfall
will also unfold along the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill through
Thursday. There are likely to be some localized totals over 12
inches along the Chautauqua Ridge, along the shores of Lake
Ontario, and on the Tug Hill. The heaviest LES is likely in a
single band off Lake Michigan into SW MI/NW IN late Wednesday
through late Thursday. CAMs guidance is showing steep lapse rates
and exceptional vertical velocities that coincide within a fully
saturated DGZ-- a clear sign of a robust LES band. WPC
probabilities show moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall totals

12 inches where localized amounts approaching 20" cannot be ruled

out given the potential for prolific >2"/hr snowfall rates beneath
a band that will oscillate between southwest MI and northwest IN
for a 12-24 hour stretch.

Across the Central Appalachians and Northeast, the lead shortwave
will not only work together with an Atlantic-offshore jet streak to
create low pressure development across the Northeast, but also drag
an arctic front from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic on
Thursday. This will create a short period of heavy upslope snow
from the higher elevations of NC through the Laurel Highlands of PA
where WPC probabilities are moderate (50-70%) for at least 4
inches, generally above 3000 ft, with locally 6-8 inches possible.
The tallest peaks of the Smokey Mountains could see localized
totals approach 12 inches. Farther north into Upstate NY and
northern New England, model guidance has trended snowier over the
past 12-24 hours of model cycles as the slightly longer duration
of moderate-to-heavy snowfall just north and west of the 850mb low
appears to be coming to fruition. The deformation zone will
maintain a saturated profile long enough, within an atmosphere that
supports rising SLRs, to produce heavy snowfall beginning as early
as Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday. WPC
probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall
totals >8 inches from northwest PA through much of western NY and
into NY's North Country and St. Lawrence Valley.

Finally, on D3 with the next shortwave digging out of Saskatchewan
into the Upper Midwest, height falls and modest warm/moist
advection will create a swath of generally light snow, followed by
strong winds behind yet another arctic front. WPC probabilities
indicate only a 10-30% chance for at least 4 inches of snow for
parts of SD/MN/WI, but WSSI-P suggests an increasing threat for
blowing snow impacts just behind this wave, so travelers should be
prepared for hazardous driving Friday despite the modest snowfall
amounts forecast. Farther east, the shortwave trough will once
again kick-up LES bands across the U.P. and western shores of
Michigan. WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for snowfall
totals >4 inches in the U.P.'s Porcupine Mountains and moderate
chances (40-60%) for >4 inches of snow over the western MI shore.
The Porcupines have the best odds at locally heavy totals with
low-to-moderate chances of totals >8 inches.


The probability for significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10%.


Mullinax/Weiss





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FOUS11 KWBC 141935
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 00Z Sun Jan 18 2026


...Upper Midwest through Northeast, and the Appalachians...
Days 1-3...

The longwave trough in place across the eastern CONUS will
repeatedly reload into the weekend, becoming increasingly amplified
as shortwaves periodically drop south out of Canada and rotate
through the trough and then off the east coast. The core of this
trough will deepen most impressively over the Gulf Coast Thursday
aftn (ECMWF 500mb heights as low as the 0.5 climatological
percentile). Within this progressive flow, even as these lead
impulses rotate away on Friday, the next shortwave trough will
follow immediately in its wake, moving from the Northern Plains to
the Mid-Mississippi Valley Friday night. Similar to the Southeast
on Thursday afternoon, 500mb heights over the Missouri River Valley
are likely to be as low as the 0.5 climatological percentile.

In addition to producing true winter cold air across much of the
eastern 1/3 of the CONUS, and potentially some of the coldest wind
chills of the season, widespread snow is likely from the Upper
Midwest through the Tennessee Valley and back northeast through the
Central Appalachians and into the Northeast. While most of this
snow will be more "conversational" and light than impactful, there
are a few areas that will experience more significant snowfall.

Great Lakes: Periods of lake effect snow (LES) are likely each day
as persistent cyclonic flow and periodic shortwaves/fronts renew
CAA across the lakes. The heaviest LES is likely D1, especially
downwind of Lake Michigan into northern Indiana where, despite some
modest longitudinal fluctuations in the axis from the most recent
model runs, a long fetch north-south across Lake Michigan should
result in a narrow and intense single band of snow into far SW MI
and northern IN. Here, HREF probabilities for 1+"/hr snowfall peaks
above 60% for much of D1, and with locally 2-3"/hr snowfall rates
possible, WPC probabilities support a high risk (>70%) for more
than 12", and locally up to 20 inches is possible. Elsewhere, heavy
snowfall is likely south of Lake Erie along the Chautauqua Ridge
where WPC probabilities indicate a moderate risk (30-50%) for more
than 12 inches. Otherwise, while LES will be periodic and briefly
intense at times all 3 days, additional snowfall in other areas
should generally be around 6 inches or less, especially southeast
of Lake Ontario and across portions of the U.P. of MI.

Central Appalachians: The passage of an arctic front associated
with the lead shortwave will quickly cool the column to change
precipitation from rain to snow, with post-frontal gusty westerly
winds leading to pronounced upslope flow. Regional soundings
suggest favorable ascent into steepening lapse rates and elevated
low-level moisture to support heavy snow rates from the higher
elevations of NC near the Smoky Mountains northward through the
Central Appalachians of WV and into the Laurel Highlands. Guidance
has trended a little wetter and more intense with this event, and
WPC probabilities now reflect a high chance (>70%) for more than 6
inches in the higher terrain, generally above 3000 ft, across this
region on D1. Light snow showers will likely continue, although
with minimal additional accumulations on D2, but renewed upslope
flow with a secondary front D3 could again result in a few inches
of snow (WPC probabilities above 30% for 4+ inches) across the
higher elevations from NC to WV once again.

Interior Northeast: A surface low pressure moving across PA tonight
will continue to push northeast, reaching Atlantic Canada by
Friday morning. This low will be accompanied by modest warm/moist
advection to spread precipitation across Upstate New York and
northern New England. While the guidance has trended north to focus
the heaviest snowfall across Canada, a modest TROWAL pivoting
westward behind this low and interacting with an inverted surface
trough elongated from the primary low will pivot some heavier
snowfall tonight through Thursday aftn. Brief snowfall rates in
excess of 1"/hr are possible (10-30%) across the Adirondacks,
northern VT, and near Lake Ontario tonight before lifting northeast
through Thursday. As the low pulls away, some upslope snow on
increasing NW winds may also lead to heavier rates across the
Adirondacks and Greens. WPC probabilities across this area are
moderate (30-70%) for 8+ inches of snow through Friday, with the
greatest accumulations likely near the St. Lawrence Valley, the
Adirondacks, and the northern Greens.


...Northern/Central Plains...
Day 2...

A potent shortwave and accompanying vorticity lobe will drop
rapidly southward out of Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the Dakotas and
then continue to dig southeast reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley
by 00Z Saturday /end of D2/. This feature will drive an arctic cold
front southward, and the overlap of modest, but transient, height
falls, PVA, and low-level convergence along the front will
manifest as periods of snow showers, with coverage and snowfall
amounts limited by below-normal PWs and ongoing CAA. However,
impressively strong winds within the PBL and exceptionally steep
low-level lapse rates will encourage any snow showers to be
accompanied by gusty winds, and where low-level fgen combines with
modest 0-2km CAPE of 100-200 J/kg, convective snow showers may
result. While the duration and coverage of these may be limited, as
reflected by most simulated reflectivity, any of these snow
showers will likely include limited visibility and brief heavy snow
rates. This could produce hazardous travel as reflected by 30-50%
chance for moderate impacts from the WSSI-P despite snowfall
amounts that will likely (>70% chance) be less than 2 inches from
the Dakotas into western Minnesota and down into Nebraska/Iowa.


The probability for significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10%.


Weiss


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FOUS11 KWBC 150823
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026


...Northeast...
Day 1...

Accumulating snowfall will be ongoing this morning across western
and northern NY into northern New England. Additional accumulations
after 12z will be highest across western NY (where some lake
enhancement will occur) and over northern ME...with the probability
of 4"+ of additional snow over 70%. This area of snow will wind
down tonight, although some lingering lake effect snow will
continue along with some wrap around snow into northern ME.


...Central and Northern Plains into the Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

A mid level trough with multiple lobes of embedded vorticity will
drop into the Northern Plains and Great lakes today into Friday
bringing periods of snow. One area of snow will move into MN, WI
and the Great Lakes ahead of and associated with a low moving out
of Canada today into Saturday. Mainly looking at light snowfall
accumulations with this low, although some heavier totals can be
expected off of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. Overall this is
setting up to be a long duration of light to moderate snowfall
across these lake effect areas, with 72hr probabilities of
exceeding 8" of snow in the 70-90% range across portions of the
western U.P of MI into northeast WI...and 50-70% over western MI.
Lighter amounts, generally in the 1-4" range, can be expected over
MN into WI.

Snow showers will also accompany this system farther west across
the Dakotas into NE, both along the southward dropping cold front
and in its wake. Snowfall amounts are not expected to be
significant, generally on the order of 1-2" or less...however this
snow will be accompanied by significant wind gusts, likely
resulting in reduced visibility and hazardous travel. These snow
showers should start in ND by Thursday evening, spreading south
into SD Thursday night, and then continuing over much of the
Northern Plains through the day Friday. HREF EAS probabilities of
.01" can be a decent proxy for snow shower coverage...and these
values increase into the 70-100% range Thursday night over much of
ND into eastern SD, dropping closer to 40-60% during the day
Friday. Thus anticipating numerous to widespread coverage of snow
showers as the cold front pushes across Thursday night, decreasing
to scattered coverage during the day Friday. Heavier snow shower
coverage may be more isolated to scattered in nature...but where
these brief heavier rates occur a sharp reduction in visibility can
be expected with wind gusts as high as 40-60 MPH. This setup would
seemingly support at least some snow squall potential near and
just behind the cold front as it drops south Thursday night. Snow
shower coverage and intensity should generally be on a downward
trend Friday, however wind gusts will remain high. One limiting
factor for blowing snow impacts from this system is the lack of
antecedent snow cover...however if we are able to get snowfall
accumulations ~2" Thursday night into early Friday then blowing
snow concerns could increase during the day Friday, especially
within snow showers.


...Ohio Valley, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
Days 2-3

A decent amount of uncertainty exists Friday night into Sunday from
the OH Valley into the East Coast...all related to how the multiple
vort maxes interact within the large scale trough moving towards
the East Coast. Model guidance is trending a bit stronger with one
lobe of vorticity Friday night into Saturday moving from the OH
valley into the Mid-Atlantic. This should support an expanding area
of light to moderate precipitation across TN/KY Friday night,
spreading into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday. Not
anticipating any significant snowfall from this feature, but some
light snow accumulations are possible over portions of northeast TN
into KY Friday night. Temperatures are marginal, but enough of the
guidance is just cold enough to support the potential for 1-2" of snowfall...and the latest WPC probabilities of 1"+ are in the
30-60% range, which seem reasonable. Some light snow (generally
under 1") could then spread into portions of the northern Mid-
Atlantic saturday morning, with totals upwards of 1-3" possible
across the interior Northeast.

Attention will then turn to energy diving into the base of the
large scale trough and how this evolves from the Gulf Coast to the
East Coast. Seemingly have 3 deterministic model camps with this
system. The 00z GFS is the slowest and most aggressive with this
feature, taking it neutral to negatively tilted by 12z Sunday
resulting in a more expansive swath of precipitation over the
Southeast Saturday night into Sunday morning. While boundary layer
temperatures are marginal, some accumulating snowfall would be
possible over the Southeast states in this scenario. On the other
hand the ECMWF, while slower like the GFS, is more positively
tilted, keeping the system more suppressed, and thus little to no
winter precip through 12z Sunday. The 00z AIGFS/AIFS/GEM all depict
a quicker shortwave trough that results in a precipitation axis
farther east than the GFS, but moving quicker up the East Coast as
well. This scenario is a warmer one however, with the bulk of the
precipitation staying ahead of the colder airmass. Thus most of the
precip over the Southeast in this scenario is rain through 12z
Sunday. Not really seeing any clear trend to support hedging one
way or another with the forecast at this point, so will just need
to continue to monitor and hope for a more consistent trend today.
Current probabilities of 1"+ of snow through 12z Sunday are low,
only peaking around 5-10% over portions of AL and GA. Probabilities
do increase into the 20-30% range from NC into New England later
Sunday, but the aforementioned model spread will play a significant
role in how that forecast plays out.

Chenard



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 152046
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 00Z Mon Jan 19 2026

...Central and Northern Plains into the Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Persistent longwave trough across the eastern CONUS will=20
repeatedly re-load through the weekend in response to multiple=20
embedded shortwave troughs and accompanying vorticity lobes=20
swinging through.=20

The first of these will be exiting the Northeast into
Atlantic Canada D1 as a closed low with the accompanying trough
axis extending into the Southeast. Behind this trough and the
accompanying cold front, strong CAA in its wake will drive
continued lake effect snow (LES), especially east of Lakes Erie=20
and Ontario before shortwave ridging develops Friday aftn shutting
off the LES. WPC probabilities D1 are modest for 4+ inches of
additional snow, highest southeast of Lake Ontario where it reaches
30-50%.

Immediately in the wake of this first impulse, a second shortwave
will dig out of Saskatchewan and race S/SE, reaching the Mid-
Mississippi Valley by D2 before continuing to rotate E/NE into New
England on Sunday. This shortwave will push a power arctic cold
front southward beneath it, and a clipper-type low is also expected
to track to the southeast across the Great Lakes during this time.
While the accompanying synoptic snow through WAA is likely to be
minimal, renewed CAA across the Lakes should result in additional
LES, with more widespread coverage as cold N/NW flow envelops the
entire region. A third shortwave is expected to cross into the
Great Lakes on Sunday with subsequent ascent and moisture leading=20
to more snowfall, but additional accumulations before 00Z Monday
should be minor. Before that time, however, 3-day snowfall
probabilities from WPC indicate a high risk (>70% chance) for at=20
least 8 inches across the western U.P. and much of the western=20
shore of the L.P. where locally 1-2 feet is possible. Lesser=20
amounts are expected east of Lake Ontario, but still modest=20
accumulations exceeding 8 inches have a low chance (10-30%) of=20
occurring.

In addition to the LES, the arctic cold front and post-frontal CAA
will provide sufficient ascent for widespread snow showers and
possible snow squalls across the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest,
and potentially into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. This
will begin tonight across the Dakotas, and then persist through
Friday night while expanding southeast. While the setup does not
appear extremely favorable for strong snow squalls, linear bands
aligned perpendicular to the front within a region of elevated
0-2km fgen, increasing low-level moisture, and steepening lapse
rates where winds at the top of the PBL exceed 50 kts in some
areas, will support widespread snow showers (or squalls) with brief
heavy snow rates and gusty winds. While snowfall accumulations
across this region accompanying these squalls will be minimal, when
snow occurs it will fall heavily, and when combined with the strong
winds will create periodic near zero visibility and dangerous
driving. The alignment of these snow showers/squalls will also
support multiple rounds in some areas through D2.

Key Messages have been issued for these snow squalls, and they are
linked at the bottom of this discussion.


...Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast...=20
Days 1-3...

Progressive flow within a reloading and persistent mid-level
longwave trough will create active winter weather across the area
through the weekend.

For D1, a low pressure system rapidly exiting into Atlantic Canada
will leave residual moisture and ascent across primarily Maine
where a theta-e ridge continues to pivot briefly tonight, with
increasing NW flow/upslope ascent occurring as the low pulls away.
Forecast soundings indicate a rapid drying of the DGZ tonight so
any moderate snow should wane quickly by Friday morning, but WPC
probabilities indicate a low risk (10-30%) for an additional 4+
inches of snow in northern ME.

Thereafter, the mid-level trough begins to re-amplify in response
to a shortwave diving through the Great Lakes and elongating into
the Ohio Valley and Central Plains. This evolution will drive an
arctic cold front sharply east, reaching the Mid-Atlantic states by
the end of D2 /00Z Sunday/. A shortwave downstream of this front
may help develop a wave of low pressure which will bring some light
to moderate snowfall to New England, although WPC probabilities for
more than 2" of snow D2 are only around 30%, highest in the higher
elevations of the Catskills and Berkshires. More substantial
snowfall is likely through lift along the front, followed by
impressive upslope snow into the Central Appalachians, as well as
parts of western PA. Steepening lapse rates will keep the DGZ
relatively shallow, but sufficient ascent into the moistened column
will result in periods of moderate to heavy snowfall which may
accumulate to more than 4 inches in parts of WV and PA as reflected
by WPC probabilities reaching 30-50%.

Then during D3 /00Z Sunday to 00Z Monday/ an elongated lobe of
vorticity will swing into New England, while a secondary and
sharpening shortwave dives into the primary longwave trough across
the Mississippi Valley. While the lead impulse may cause some light
snow across Maine (WPC probabilities for 4+ inches 10-30%), the
more challenging and bigger concern will be what happens with
moisture spreading northward from the Southeast the latter half of
D3. While uncertainty is significant, there is at least modest
confidence that light precipitation will spread far enough
northwest to bring snowfall to parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast from
eastern VA through coastal NJ, and potentially onto Long Island and
Cape Cod. Current WPC probabilities are modest (30-50% for 1"), but
trends will need to be monitored as the system develops in the next
few days.


...Southeast...
Day 3...

A complex forecast scenario is evolving for portions of the
Southeast beginning around 00Z Sunday and persisting through D3. An
arctic cold front will push into the area Saturday and then=20
progress rapidly to the Atlantic Coast by Sunday morning. As this
front pushes east, a sharpening upper shortwave trough will rotate
near the Gulf Coast, potentially taking on a negative tilt late in
the forecast period (although there is a lot of uncertainty into
the amplitude of this feature). At the same time, a downstream jet
streak will amplify to become powerful over the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast, leading to weak surface cyclogenesis along the Gulf
Coast. As this wave develops, moisture will spread northward, and
while the column will initially be too warm for wintry
precipitation, rapid cooling behind the front will allow for a
changeover from rain to snow.=20

The speed at which this occurs, as well as how much moisture can=20
remain in the column after transition, will play the most important
role into any possible snowfall accumulations. The GFS continues=20
to be the most robust with the transition and available moisture=20
for snow, while the EC and CMC are weaker and drier. Evaluation of=20
the D3 clusters suggests that both the CMC and GFS ensembles are=20 under-dispersive (with the CMC members nearly uniformly deeper=20
with the trough, while the GFS members are nearly uniformly faster=20
at 500mb), suggesting the EC members and their variety of=20
solutions results in a more accurate solutions via the ECENS mean.
While there is still a lot of uncertainty, confidence is increasing
for at least mixed rain/snow from the Florida Panhandle northeast
through southeast Virginia. While the threat for significant
accumulations appears small, and WSE plumes only have a handful of
members producing >1" of snow, the WPC probabilities have increased
and suggest a 10-30% chance for 1" of snow from southern AL through
the NC Piedmont and into the coastal Mid-Atlantic states. Forecast
changes are almost certain, so those potentially impacted should
remain apprised of the latest forecast through the next few days.


Weiss


...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!6RNjUAou4g17Px_u1pNFlRzORKhcuzmoTm4odAbI2R7Ol= g8xKox0NZQc9EVJ7SQwiAS7NX09bAHxt-zgZW50whtt9wE$=20



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FOUS11 KWBC 160911
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

...Central and Northern Plains into the Midwest...=20
Days 1 and 3...

Longwave trough re-establishes over the Great Lakes today where it
persists into next week as multiple shortwave troughs swing
through.

An arctic cold front currently pushing across ND will push
south-southeast into the Midwest today. Strong frontal CAA will=20
continue to provide sufficient ascent for widespread snow showers=20
and likely additional snow squalls both along the front as it=20
moves across the rest of the north-central Plains through the
Missouri River Valley today and potentially IL/IN this evening.=20
Potent snow streamers in cloud streets/horizontal convective rolls=20
in the NW flow behind the front should also trigger snow squall
warnings particularly over SD/Neb this morning through midday.=20=20
Some particulars on the linear bands include alignment=20
parallel to the flow within a region of elevated 0-2km fgen,=20
increasing low- level moisture, and steepening lapse rates where=20
winds at the top of the PBL exceed 50 kt. Snowfall in these
potentially lingering/repeating banding could become locally heavy=20
and when combined with the strong winds will create near zero=20
visibility and dangerous driving.=20

Key Messages are being updated for these snow squalls with the link=20
at the bottom of this discussion.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

The potent wave with the Arctic front has a leading cold front
currently over IA/KS which will swing east to the Appalachians
tonight and off the Eastern Seaboard Saturday with the Arctic
front quickly on its heels. The next reinforcing shortwave trough
then crosses the Great Lakes Sunday/Sunday night.=20
Renewed CAA across the Great Lakes today will reinstate LES with=20
more widespread coverage in snow belts as cold N/NW flow envelops=20
the entire region. Day 1 PWPF for >6" is 30-50% over the western
U.P., and the western L.P. This shifts to the Tug Hill and across
southern VT/NH for Day 1.5. Then Days 2 and 3 are highlighting
again over the western U.P. and western L.P.


...Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Northeastern Seaboard... Days=20
1-3...

Progressive flow within a reloading and persistent mid-level
longwave trough will create active winter weather across the area
through the weekend.

The arctic cold front reaches the Ohio Valley late tonight and the
Mid- Atlantic states Saturday. Snowfall is likely through lift=20
along the front, followed by impressive upslope snow for the=20
Central and Southern Appalachians. Steepening lapse rates will=20
keep the DGZ relatively shallow, but sufficient ascent into the=20
moistened column will result in periods of moderate to heavy=20
snowfall with Day 1.5 PWPF for >4" spotty for 20-40% probs from
western PA through WV and the higher Apps along the TN/NC border.

Sunday and Sunday night an elongated lobe of vorticity will swing=20
into New England, while a secondary and sharpening shortwave dives=20
into the primary longwave trough across the Mississippi Valley.=20
While the lead impulse should bring snow to northern Maine (WPC Day
2 probabilities for 4+ inches 10-30%), the more challenging and=20
bigger concern will be what happens with moisture spreading=20
northward from the Southeast and along the Mid-Atlantic Coast=20
starting late Saturday night. Confidence is growing for light to
moderate snow from eastern VA through coastal NJ, Long Island, and
southern New England where Day 2.5 probs for >2" are 20-80%=20
(highest in on the central Jersey Shore. The low track is offshore,
so this is the backside precip.


...Southeast...
Days 2/3...

A baroclinic leaf develops downstream of the digging, positively
tilted trough axis over the Mid-South Saturday night with strong
cold air advection and snow potential for the Southeast
Piedmont through the shortwave trough passage Sunday evening. This
is the southern extent of the more notable snow mentioned above for
the Mid-Atlantic. Day 2.5 snow probs for >1" are around 40% in
Southeast VA with some 20% reaching into central NC. While most
guidance has low to no snow, there are notable outliers like the
06Z NAM with decent snow from central GA through central NC. This
will continue to be monitored as the system gets into the CAMs
today.


Jackson



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect and linked below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5nz7zLo_-HKjp4ztUZSBDzH0Pt66De4raR4tqx5cnhKfQ= 4qGdTeZ-Djv7G_j9Nm6i4uqmWZChgeiXy02GdB7imda5mE$=20



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FOUS11 KWBC 161925
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 00Z Tue Jan 20 2026

...Central and Northern Plains into the Midwest...=20
Days 1 and 3...

With a longwave trough and embedded shortwaves forecast to persist
the next few days, bouts of snow will continue for the Plains to
the Great Lakes/Midwest. Snow squalls along the Arctic front will
yield generally low amounts of snow but potentially
hazardous/dangerous driving conditions. Snow showers and squalls=20
this afternoon will shift southward/eastward tonight through the
Midwest with less coverage. Another shortwave from Canada will
carry another threat for some banded snow showers and some snow=20
squalls Sunday over the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest/Corn=20
Belt. Snowfall in these potentially lingering/repeating banding=20
could become locally heavy for a time and when combined with the=20
strong winds will create near-zero visibility.=20

Key Messages for these snow squalls are linked at the bottom of=20
this discussion.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Persistent cyclonic flow around the Great Lakes will favor rounds=20
of lake effect snow downwind of all Great Lakes Lead system tonight
will favor Michigan (esp. the U.P.) as the surface low moves into=20
Ontario. Next system on Sunday will renew the lake machine across=20
Michigan then into the NY lake belts as the next area of low=20
pressure moves right across Lake Superior into Ontario. WSW flow=20
over Lakes Erie/Ontario could move the bands quite far north (e.g.,
north of BUF and ART) but the progressive flow would vary the band
locations through the period. Three-day snow totals will be=20
modest, with the favored areas (northern shore of the U.P., western
Lower Michigan, and into the Tug Hill) show >50% probabilities for
at least 12 inches of snow.=20


...Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and the Northeast...
Day 1...

Shortwave and cold front out of the Midwest will move into the
Appalachians with generally light to locally modest snow, enhanced=20
over the terrain (western PA/MD and eastern WV) tonight. WPC
probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are about 20-50%.=20

A strengthening upper jet will move into the Northeast early
Saturday with modest snowfall expanding through the interior
Northeast, especially over the Berkshires and into the southern
Green Mountains just ahead of the cold front. Snow could exceed
1"/hr in areas of the Poconos and northwestern NJ through parts of
the Catskills and into western MA per the 12Z HREF (30-60%=20
chance). The front should clear eastern Maine after 00Z and largely
end most accumulation. WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches of=20
snow are >50% over northwestern MA into southern VT as well as into
the Tug Hill Plateau.


...Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast...
Days 2-3...

Within the active pattern in the East is a southern portion of the full-latitude trough that swings through the Lower MS Valley=20
Sunday morning. This will bring colder temperatures to the
Southeast as precipitation is slowly moving through the region
along/behind the front. Models have been struggling with how
quickly to move in colder air as precipitation ends, but some light
snow is possible over GA into the Carolinas Sunday morning of a
dusting to a tenth or two.=20

Further up the coast, precipitation will expand northeastward in
the right rear quad of the >160kt jet atop marginal to cold
temperatures (milder along/east of I-95 in the Mid-
Atlantic). Elongated baroclinic zone and areas of surface low=20
pressure will lift northeastward just off the Mid-
Atlantic/Northeast coast Sunday night. Models have struggled here
with the westward QPF extent and are sensitive to the
timing/strength of upstream/incoming mid-level systems as the flow
remains wide open. For now, have remained fairly steady on the
amounts which should result in a swath of a few inches of snow from
the Mid-Atlantic into the NYC area and New England. Highest
probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are in eastern Maine

50%) as any chance of a more organized system is higher as it=20

approaches Nova Scotia. However, a light snow of 1-3" is likely=20
from NJ northeastward along/east of I-95/91 where WPC probabilities
of at least 2 inches are at least 30%.

Fracasso


...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!87Gc6PAfEmAFY1wwwek2esPmSCIZYqVDtFagoGIre7OrO= jq5eIs55aadK1HxyPINNkLRan8wbhzLqIvIYfPQxq8pr0A$=20



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FOUS11 KWBC 170856
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Shortwave trough passages in persistent cyclonic flow through the=20
Great Lakes will favor rounds of lake effect snow for at least the
next week.

A long wave trough over the western Lakes this morning will slowly
shift east through tonight. Northerly flow over Lake Superior will
bring LES to the western U.P. with westerly flow over the L.P.
where Day 1 snow probs for >6" are 40-60% in narrow snow belts.

The next reinforcing trough moves in from the west with NWly flow
bringing more snow to the western U.P. and most of the L.P. western
shore. SWly flow over Lake Erie pushes some single banding into
Buffalo, NY. These areas have Day 2 snow probs for >6" in the
20-60% range. Then the next shortwave trough moves in from the west=20
Monday night with LES until ridging builds briefly late Tuesday.
Day 3 PWPF for >6" is over the eastern U.P. on westerly flow along
with the northern L.P. Most notably however, is single banding in
westerly flow over Lakes Erie and Ontario with Day 3 PWPF for >6"
40-80%.


...Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and the Northeast...
Day 1...

Arctic cold front will shift east from the Midwest this morning and
cross PA this afternoon. Snow squalls could accompany this front
mainly over Ohio and western PA/NY which are highlighted in ongoing
Key Messages that are linked below.=20

A SWly jet stream strengthens in place over the eastern U.S.
through tonight as a very positively-tilted trough shifts down the
Plains and pivots over the Mid-South. Downstream of this trough
will be expanding snow through the interior Northeast, especially=20
over the Poconos, Catskills, Berkshires and southern Green=20
Mountains just ahead of the cold front. Snow could exceed 1"/hr in
these areas per the 00Z HREF. This precip clears eastern Maine=20
this evening. Day 1 WPC probabilities for >4" are 50% in the Mohawk
Valley of NY and over the southern Greens, Whites, and eastern
Maine with 20-30% probs over the Poconos/Catskills, and Berkshires.=20


...Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast...
Days 2-3...

Within the active pattern in the East is a southern portion of the full-latitude trough that swings through the Lower MS Valley=20
early Sunday. This will bring colder temperatures to the Southeast
as precipitation is slowly moving through the region along/behind=20
the front. Models are in better agreement tonight allowing enough
cold air in before precipitation ends to allow some light snow from
northern FL through the Carolinas Sunday morning with a dusting to
half an inch.=20

Further up the coast, precipitation will expand northeastward in
the right entrance of the >160kt jet atop marginal to cold=20
temperatures (milder along/east of I-95 in the Mid-Atlantic).=20
Elongated baroclinic zone and areas of surface low pressure will=20
lift northeastward just off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast=20
Sunday night. Models have struggled here with the westward QPF=20
extent and are sensitive to the timing/strength of=20
upstream/incoming mid-level systems as the flow remains wide open.=20
For now, have remained fairly steady on the amounts which should=20
result in a swath of a few inches of snow from the Mid-Atlantic=20
into the NYC area and New England. 10 to 20% probs for >4" in Day 2 are
limited to eastern Maine and southeastern New England. The Day 2
swath of >2" over 10% extends south through NJ into the Delmarva.


...Central High Plains...
Days 2/3...

Another Arctic cold front plunges down the Plains tonight through=20
Sunday. This banks cold air over the High Plains/against the front
ranges of the Rockies ahead of a reinforcing shortwave trough that
shifts down the Rockies Sunday night through Monday. Right entrance
jet dynamics over the existing front will allow banded snow to
develop over central MT/WY Sunday night with what appears to be the
main banding early Monday from northern CO terrain through western
KS. The WNWly orientation of these bands is parallel to flow and
should allow for persistence of moderate to locally heavy narrow
bands of snow. As of now Day 2.5 snow probs for >2" are around 20%
along the KS/CO border, but that is likely to increase as the
system gets closer. The ECAIFS was featuring this precip two nights
ago and global physical models are finally catching up. A risk for
4" or more is possible in these persistent banding scenarios.


Jackson



...Winter Storm Key Messages remain in effect and are linked=20
below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!53LqTlmiHMfFGsvloks6bLMMHenjsnI7u8iz2V4YYXMnf= wtJNLrDQZ30xNDPeBw5guoNHsTuPVbwDfbbLJhW__x0xiw$=20



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FOUS11 KWBC 172007
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 00Z Wed Jan 21 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Shortwave trough passages in persistent cyclonic flow through the=20
Great Lakes will favor rounds of heavy lake effect snow for at=20
least the next week. The Great Lakes are currently mostly ice free
(total ice cover estimated at 15.5% on Jan 16), with surface water
temperatures between 2-6C (warmer over southern Lake Michigan and
Lake Ontario).=20

A long wave trough over Great Lakes tonight will shift east Sunday,
but reinforced by the next trough swinging around the anchored
upper low over the Hudson Bay. For D1, the highest probabilities
(40-70%) for more than 6 inches of snowfall is across the west-
central MI L.P. along the shores of eastern Lake Michigan, where=20
westerly flow and an inverted surface trough are expected to aid in
localized heavy snowfall.

The next reinforcing trough set to bring heavy snowfall during the
D2-D3 period is forecast to move in from the west with NWly flow=20
bringing more snow to the U.P. and most of the L.P. western shore.
Gusty winds up to 40 mph are also expected across the MI U.P,=20
which could lead to additional impacts associated with blowing=20
snow. SWly flow over Lake Erie pushes some single banding into=20
Buffalo, NY on Monday. These areas have Day 2 snow probs for >6"=20
in the 50-80% range. Then the next shortwave trough moves in from=20
the west Monday night with LES until ridging builds briefly late=20
Tuesday into the western Great Lakes. Day 3 PWPF for >6" is over=20
the eastern U.P. Most notably however, is single banding in=20
westerly flow over Lakes Erie and Ontario with Day 3 PWPF for >6"=20
60-90%. For the entire D1-D3 period, probabilities for >12" are
70-90% downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario, including the Buffalo
metro region.


...Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast...
Days 1-2...

Positively-tilted full-latitude trough this evening will move into
the Mid-South overnight, carrying a surface cold front through the
Southeast. By 12Z Sunday, cold front will be well into the Atlantic
with lagging precipitation over central/southeastern GA just in
advance of the sharp mid-level shortwave. With these cases, even
with surface temperatures just above freezing, dynamic cooling
could easily bring snow to the surface and accumulate via modest
rates 0.5-0.75"/hr per some of the CAM guidance. Though they have
wavered on how things come together, 12z guidance has nudged up
toward supporting a burst of snow over central/southeastern GA
which could accumulate to an inch or so (WPC probabilities of >1"
are around 10% but with upside potential). Light snow from a
dusting to half an inch is possible from the northern FL Panhandle
into upstate SC (>20-30% chance).=20

Further up the coast, precipitation will expand northeastward in=20
the right entrance of the >160kt jet atop marginal to cold=20
temperatures (milder along/east of I-95 in the Mid-Atlantic) and
increasing lower to mid-level FGEN. Elongated baroclinic zone and=20
areas of surface low pressure Sunday morning will coalesce into a
coherent surface low that is forecast to lift northeastward just=20
off the Mid-Atlantic coast to just outside the 40/70 benchmark Sunday
evening. 12Z guidance continued to trend westward with the QPF
axis/edge and have trended up in QPF and thus snow for the
Northeast. This could also keep shoreline temperatures milder for a
time before the low passes by. Snow could fall heavy for a period
over southern/southeastern New England Sunday evening per the 12Z
HREF (20-40% chance of >1"/hr rates). A swath of a few inches of=20
snow is likely from the Mid-Atlantic into the NYC area and New=20
England with upside potential over the terrain (Worcester hills,
etc.). WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are >50%
over eastern CT through RI and southeastern MA outside the Cape and
Islands. Into Maine, a stripe of a few/several inches of snow is
likely along the coast where probabilities for at least 4 inches of
snow are >40%.=20


...Northern Plains...
Day 1...

**Snow squalls likely across parts of the northern Plains on
Sunday. Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion***

The next in a series of arctic cold fronts is forecast to dive
southward across the northern Plains on Sunday, with the greatest
potential for scattered snow squalls along the northern High
Plains. Timing for this front and associated snow squalls/streamers
behind the front starts in eastern MT/western ND during the=20
morning hours and quickly pushes southward into western SD and NE
into the afternoon. Lapse rates per several 12z CAMs near or exceed
6-7C/km for a brief period along the front and SNSQ parameters=20
rise above 4-5 between eastern MT and central NE. These parameters=20
combined with low-to-mid level FGEN intersecting with a healthy=20
100mb wide DGZ should allow for efficient snowfall rates within=20
these showers and bands. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are also possible=20
with this system, adding to the blowing snow potential.

Snow squalls are particularly dangerous for those traveling on
roadways, with extremely low visibilities and slippery conditions
developing rapidly. Be sure to slow down, turn on your lights, and
exit the highway if possible should you get caught in a snow
squall.


...Central High Plains...
Days 2-3...

With cold air banked over the High Plains/against the front ranges
of the Rockies ahead of a reinforcing shortwave trough Sunday=20
night through Monday, conditions will be set for a period of snow
over eastern CO to KS. Right entrance jet dynamics over the=20
existing front will allow banded snow to develop over central MT/WY
Sunday night with what appears to be the main banding early Monday
from northern CO terrain through western KS. The WNWly orientation
of these bands is parallel to the flow and should allow for=20
persistence of moderate to locally heavy narrow bands of snow. As=20
of now WPC probabilities for >2" are 10-20% along the KS/CO=20
border, but that is likely to increase as the system gets closer.=20
QPF trends has been up overall and a risk for 4" or more is=20
possible in these persistent banding scenarios.

Fracasso/Snell/Jackson


...Snow Squall Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key=20
Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4O44Oh9C5u6tIlCTliLi6mxu8BcIbKtbjpq7987JV_82b= OrTDGEDnOCpz0-LLQBikF8uV75kXdSRrKcBcTI-CQJ3RK0$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 180904
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Shortwave trough passages around an anchored deep low over Hudson
Bay maintains cyclonic flow through the Great Lakes with rounds of
heavy lake effect snow through next weekend. The Great Lakes are=20
currently mostly ice free (total ice cover estimated at 14% on Jan=20
17), with surface water temperatures between 2-6C (warmer over=20
southern Lake Michigan and Lake Ontario).

A long wave trough shifts east of the Great Lakes this morning
while the next reinforcing trough swings east across the extent of
the Lakes this afternoon through Monday. NWly flow brings Day 1=20
PWPF for >6" around 50% to the western U.P. (particularly the=20
Porcupine Mtns) and the western shore of the L.P.=20

The flow shifts westerly for Monday shifting the LES focus to the=20
eastern U.P. northern L.P. and for the eastern Great Lakes for=20
Monday with westerly single banding bringing 50-80% probs for >6"=20
to ares south of Buffalo and on the Tug Hill through Watertown.=20

A brief lull in LES sweeps across the Lakes Tuesday, though
single-banding persists on the Eastern Great Lakes. In particular,
the Tug Hill should see notable Day 3 snow with 60% probs for >12".=20


...Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast...
Day 1...

Positively-tilted full-latitude trough over the Mid-South=20
swing to neutral today as it shifts over the Southeast. Moisture
plume ahead of the trough is mainly rain, but with surface low
pressure developing off the GA coast, the back side of the precip
should turn into moderate bands of snow, particularly from the FL
Panhandle through central GA and the central Carolinas. With these
cases, even with surface temperatures just above freezing, dynamic
cooling could easily bring snow to the surface and accumulate via=20
decent rates of 0.5-0.75"/hr per the 00Z HREF. Day 1 PWPF for >2"
is around 10% in south-central GA and 20% in north-central NC into
southeast VA.

Further up the coast, precipitation will expand northeastward in=20
the right entrance of the >160kt jet atop marginal to cold=20
temperatures (milder along/east of I-95 in the Mid-Atlantic) and
increasing lower to mid-level FGEN. Elongated baroclinic zone and=20
the offshore surface low that rapidly develops as it passes Cape
Hatteras this afternoon and just outside the 40/70 benchmark=20
this evening. The westward extent of the precip shield, where the
snow bands will be is still prominent in 00Z guidance along the
extend of the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon and much of New
England late this afternoon through this evening. 00Z HREF mean snow
rates exceed 0.5"/hr over the Delmarva and NJ early this evening
and Long Island/southern New England late this evening through
midnight. Day 1 PWPF for >2" are 40% and up from Philly through
eastern Maine with 50% and up for >4" from NYC through CT/MA/RI and
along the immediate Maine coast. The max for the Day 1 PWPF is from
Providence to Boston where >6" probs are around 60%.=20


...Northern Plains...
Day 1...

**Snow squalls and blizzard conditions likely across parts of the=20
northern Plains today. Key Messages linked below***

The next arctic cold front surges south across the northern Plains
today, with scattered snow squalls mainly this morning from eastern
Montana through the western Dakotas into central Nebraska. The
broad wind field with this front should also trigger blowing snow,
which when combined with additional falling snow could create
blizzard conditions, particularly in the WFO FGF CWA (please see weather.gov/fgf for more info there).=20

Lapse rates reach or exceed 6-7C/km for a brief period along the=20
front and SNSQ parameters rise above 4-5 between eastern MT and=20
central NE. These parameters combined with low-to-mid level FGEN=20 intersecting with a healthy 100mb wide DGZ should allow for=20
efficient snowfall rates within these showers and bands. Wind gusts
up to 60 mph are also possible with this system, adding to the=20
blowing snow potential.

Snow squalls are particularly dangerous for those traveling on
roadways, with extremely low visibilities and slippery conditions
developing rapidly. Be sure to slow down, turn on your lights, and
exit the highway if possible should you get caught in a snow
squall.


...Central High Plains...
Days 1-2...

Cold air surges over the High Plains/against the front ranges of=20
the Rockies today ahead of a reinforcing shortwave trough that
shifts south over the Rockies tonight through Monday. Right=20
entrance jet dynamics over the front will allow banded snow to=20
develop over central MT/WY this evening with stronger banding=20
overnight from northern CO terrain through western KS with snow
bands lingering Monday morning over southwest KS into western OK.=20
The WNWly orientation of these bands is parallel to the flow and=20
should allow for persistence of narrow bands of moderate to=20
locally heavy snow. Day 1 PWPF for >2" remain limited to 30% over=20
the CO Front Range and east of the Palmer Divide in CO/western KS.
CAMs generally struggled with these synoptically driven bands that
have a risk for high performance given the motion along
orientation, so there remains a threat for 4"+ in persistent=20
banding scenarios.

Jackson



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8mgHyoidHlr2hQD8QC6_PkFw3gcML7nZY0LgmJfp3PNA_= 50yuIFMLCOpfSkQNcKumw5V4v5BVTNpxp0ITTZIl5fYnzo$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 181903
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 00Z Thu Jan 22 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Shortwave trough passages around an anchored deep low over Hudson
Bay maintains cyclonic flow through the Great Lakes with rounds of
heavy lake effect snow through at least the first part of the week.
The Great Lakes are currently mostly ice free (total ice cover
estimated at 14%), with surface water temperatures between 2-6C
(warmer over southern Lake Michigan and Lake Ontario). 850mb
temperatures of -20C or so will be quite sufficient for a delta T.

The next reinforcing trough swings east across the extent of the
Lakes tonight/tomorrow along with a surface front. Post-FROPA NW
flow through early Tuesday will promote multi-banded snow into the
U.P. and western Lower Michigan where WPC probabilities for at
least 6 inches of snow through 12Z Tue are >70%. For Lakes
Erie/Ontario, SW flow ahead of the system tonight will keep the
bands mostly in Canada except for around Buffalo/Niagara Falls
before sinking back southward Monday afternoon/evening and
eventually waning on Tuesday (lastly over the Tug Hill). WPC
probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow through 00Z Wed are

90% over the Tug Hill and near/just south of Buffalo. Over the Tug

Hill where the band could persist the longest, WPC probabilities
for at least 18 inches of snow are >50%.

After a brief lull Tuesday evening in the western Lakes, another
system will move through the region overnight and into Wednesday
with the surface low lifting from the Corn Belt across Lake
Michigan through Lower Michigan. Synoptic snow will be followed by
lake effect snow on Wednesday with the highest probabilities for at
least 4 inches of snow over western Lower Michigan near the track
of the area of low pressure (>60% probs).


...Eastern New England...
Day 1...

Deepening area of low pressure just outside the 40/70 benchmark at
00Z tonight will lift quickly northeastward into Atlantic Canada
overnight. Light to modest snow and snow rates (near 1"/hr) atop
cold to marginal surface temperatures over southeastern and eastern
New England will continue snow through the early overnight hours
before winding down by 12Z Monday. WPC probabilities for an
additional 4 inches of snow after 00Z are >50% over eastern MA and
northern RI (except for the Cape and Islands) and along eastern
coastal Maine.


...Central High Plains...
Day 1...

Arctic front diving through the Plains will bring in colder air to
the High Plains tonight. Right entrance jet dynamics over the
front will allow banded snow to develop over central MT/WY this
evening with stronger banding overnight from northern CO terrain
through western KS with snow bands lingering Monday morning over
southwest KS into western OK. The WNWly orientation of these bands
is parallel to the flow and should allow for persistence of narrow
bands of moderate to locally heavy snow. Day 1 PWPF for >2" remain
limited to 30% over the CO Front Range and 10-20% east of the
Palmer Divide in CO/western KS. CAMs generally struggled with these synoptically driven bands that have a risk for high performance
given the motion along orientation, so there remains a threat for
4"+ in persistent banding scenarios (e.g., NAM nest).

Fracasso


$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 190842
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026


...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest...
Days 1-3...

Shortwave trough passages around a deep low over anchored over
Hudson Bay maintain cyclonic flow and Lake Effect Snow across the
Great Lakes snow belts at least into this weekend. The Great Lakes
are ice free away from the narrower bays. 850mb temperatures of
-20C to -25C over surface water temperatures between +2 to 6C will
continue to make for a high delta T and convective development.

A reinforcing trough currently over the U.P. swings east across
the rest of the Lakes today with a leading arctic cold front.
Post- FROPA NW flow through early Tuesday will promote multi-
banded snow into the U.P. and northern Lower Michigan where Day 1
WPC probabilities for >6" are 40-70%.

For Lakes Erie/Ontario, SWly flow veers Wly today with ongoing
single-band LES shifting south of Buffalo and onto the Tug Hill
Plateau. Day 1 PWPF for >6" are 60-80% in these zones. LES
continues through Tuesday night, so Day 2 PWPF for >6" are
especially highlighted over the Tug Hill with values over 80%.

A brief lull occurs Tuesday evening in the western Lakes under
brief ridging until the next shortwave/a clipper system shifts east
through the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. A surface low
lifts from Iowa across the L.P. through that time with synoptic
snow bands across northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin where Day
2.5 snow probs for >4" have risen to 20%. Brief LES can be expected
Wednesday into Wednesday night where Day 3 PWPF for >4" are 40-70%
in the western U.P., the length of the western L.P. shore, and east
of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Yet another clipper is quick on the heels on a similar path to the
previous with snow bands likely over northern Iowa, southern
Wisconsin and souther Michigan again Wednesday night.


...Central High Plains...
Day 1...

Right entrance jet dynamics continue to provide lift over a
baroclinic zone on the central High Plains as high pressure builds
south over the Northern Plains. A decent swath of snow with narrow
embedded bands of moderate to locally heavy snow have developed
from northern CO Front Range to western KS. These will persist into
or through the morning as should slowly sag south to southwestern
KS as the jet also shifts south with the shortwave trough pushing
down the Rockies. An additional few inches can be expected in the
better bands.


The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.


Jackson




$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 192055
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 00Z Fri Jan 23 2026


...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest...
Days 1-3...

A highly negative AO teleconnection will keep the large Hudson Bay
vortex in place while embedded shortwave troughs revolving around
the Hudson Bay vortex continue to trigger LES bands over the
typical snow belts. The Great Lakes are remain ice free away from
the narrower bays and coast lines. Sufficiently steep lapse rates
persist due to 850mb temperatures of -20C to -25C racing over
surface water temperatures between +2C to +6C.

For Lakes Erie/Ontario, SWly flow veers Wly today and tonight with
ongoing single-band LES shifting south of Buffalo and onto the Tug
Hill Plateau. Day 1 PWPF for >6" are 70-90% in these zones.

A brief lull occurs Tuesday evening in the western Lakes and
eventually eastern Lakes by Wednesday morning under brief ridging
until the next shortwave/a clipper system shifts east through the
region Tuesday night through Wednesday. A surface low lifts from
Iowa across the L.P. through that time with synoptic snow bands
across northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin where Day 2 snow probs
for >4" are 10-20%. Brief LES can be expected Wednesday into
Wednesday night where Day 2.5-3 PWPF for >4" are 40-70% in the
western U.P., the length of the western L.P. shore, and east of
Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Yet another clipper is quick on the heels on a similar path to the
previous with snow bands likely over northern Iowa, southern
Wisconsin and souther Michigan again Wednesday night through
Thursday. In total through Thursday, snowfall amounts are expected
to add up to at least 1 to 2 feet downwind of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario, with higher chances (60-80%) for over 2 feet across the
Tug Hill of NY.


The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.


Snell/Jackson



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FOUS11 KWBC 200909
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026


...Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes...=20
Days 1-3...

Sprawling Hudson Bay vortex dominates the continental pattern
through this week. A pair of shortwave troughs round the low,=20
emerging from the Canadian Prairies as clippers and cross the=20
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes today and=20
Wednesday. These clippers will continue to trigger LES bands over=20
the typical snow belts in their wake.=20

The first shortwave trough axis reaches Montana this morning with
repeating areas of moderate snow through the morning with
topographical enhancements where 1"/hr snow rates are possible. Day
1 PWPF for >4" are around 50% on the Little Belt and Big Snowy
Mtns.

This clipper will redevelop snow bands over eastern SD this
afternoon with a decent, but narrow swath of snow then east along
the MN/IA and WI/IL borders tonight and southern MI late tonight
into Wednesday. Day 1.5 PWPF for >4" is 40-50% from northeast IA
along the WI/IL border and southwest MI. The Wednesday clipper
should follow a similar track, but with lower overall precip.

The Great Lakes ice coverage is rising, currently around 18%=20
mainly on narrower bays and western Lake Erie per GLERL.=20
Sufficiently steep low level lapse rates persist with 850mb=20
temperatures of -20C to -25C over surface water temperatures=20
between +1C and +5C.

Westerly flow continues today ahead of the first clipper with a
lull spreading east tonight through Wednesday night as the two
clippers cross. The strong single-banding persists from Lake
Ontario today with Day 1 PWPF for >8" additional after 12Z over 80%
in the Tug Hill Plateau. Day 2 PWPF for >6" is around 30% east of
Lake Erie and around 50% in the Tug Hill. Then LES resumes for the
northern Lakes with Day 3 PWPF for >6" over 90% in the Tug Hill.


...Southern Tier...
Starting Day 3...

Southern stream low pressure pushes inland over the northern Baja
California Friday with broad cyclonic flow out ahead which opens up
Gulf moisture to surge over Arctic-sourced air spilling down the
Plains from the Hudson Bay vortex. Broad areas of heavy wintry
precip are expected to develop on Friday over Texas to the
Southeast. Confidence is high for this event occurring though
details on how much winter accumulations, types, and locations have
uncertainty mainly derived from the timing of the southern stream
wave surging inland. Key Messages on this storm and the extreme
cold are active and linked below.=20



Jackson



...Extreme Cold Key Messages and Southern Tier Winter Storm Key=20
Messages are linked below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!66kif1vnRkDxDwdhyvRANP2JpfKbLwHYpkGOMDg3cQ-gJ= 5bEtdquSKelv5Dvb_Uca9AqyUzAP2URkWO8nhNKhH_ybR0$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!66kif1vnRkDxDwdhyvRANP2JpfKbLwHYpkGOMDg3cQ-gJ= 5bEtdquSKelv5Dvb_Uca9AqyUzAP2URkWO8nhNKUKiHd1s$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 202058
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 00Z Sat Jan 24 2026


...Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes...=20
Days 1-3...

Sprawling Hudson Bay vortex dominates the continental pattern
through this week. Within the broad cyclonic pattern, a shortwave=20
and developing surface wave is forecast to traverse the Upper=20
Midwest tonight. Tonight, a corridor of warm advection and=20
associated 850-700 mb frontogenesis on the northeast flank of the
low center will drive an east-west oriented snow band spreading=20
from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. The latest PWPF
for >4" is 20-30% over northwest IA and southern WI, which=20
increases to 50-75% over southwestern MI. By tomorrow, a modest
clipper system following behind the lead wave will drive additional
snowfall, although the QPF footprint with this system is markedly
lower. Meanwhile, strong single-banding will gradually come to an=20
end tonight downwind of Lake Ontario. Even so, the Day 1 PWPF for=20

6" is around 50% in the Tug Hill Plateau, which ramps up to above=20

90% by Day 3 with the approach of a strong Arctic high from the=20
west.

Asherman/Jackson

...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley...
Day 3...

....Major Winter Storm To Begin Impacting the South Central U.S.=20
on Friday...

The highly anticipated winter storm that is expected to impact much
of the southern and eastern U.S. this weekend begins on Friday. To
produce a winter storm of this size and magnitude, the weather
pattern must have a very cold air-mass anchored to the north. In
this case, a near record-breaking dome of high pressure to the
north is filtering in a frigid air-mass throughout much of the
eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Meanwhile, an upper trough off the
California coast will direct subtropical East Pacific moisture at
the Southern Plains. Persistent Pacific moisture overrunning an
arctic air-mass will result in not only snow, but treacherous sleet
and freezing rain from southern Texas to the Lower MS Valley.=20
Exact placement of the wintry mix zone remains unclear as guidance=20
is adjusting how strong the WAA aloft will be, but confidence is=20
growing in Friday morning being the starting point for wintry=20
precipitation. The latest WSO through Friday afternoon (D4 WSO=20
shows a large footprint of >50% odds for a warning-level snowfall=20
event from the TX Panhandle on east through much of OK and into=20
central AR. Farther south, heavy sleet and hazardous freezing rain=20
will be more common in the heart of Texas on east to the ArkLaTex.=20
This storm will have wide reaching impacts through the Mid-South=20
and all the way to the East Coast by this weekend. Residents=20
affected by this storm should continue to monitor the forecast=20
through their local warning forecast office at weather.gov.=20


Mullinax



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!97DbUNAoUxdcCZ0op6hRdmQMMIqdMz9bPUdDmexpzgKBo= UoyobGpTezL1K6VO3Vj0OtgEnw3C8SsVqJqr9URmM_gz14$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!97DbUNAoUxdcCZ0op6hRdmQMMIqdMz9bPUdDmexpzgKBo= UoyobGpTezL1K6VO3Vj0OtgEnw3C8SsVqJqr9UR0mK2zF8$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 210923
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026


***At Least Major Winter Storm Impacts The South Friday Through=20
This Weekend, Expanding Up The East Coast Saturday Night***

...Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, Through the Mid-South and
Gulf Coast into The Tennessee Valley...=20
Days 2-3...

Precip onset for major winter storm Friday on the Southern Plains=20
and Southern Rockies, quickly intensifying and expanding east over
the Mid-South and Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley=20
Saturday. Expansive cold air mass spills down the Plains Thursday=20
night from 1052mb high pushing into North Dakota. Meanwhile, a=20
cutoff low under a deep ridge off the West Coast approaching=20
southern CA Thursday gets absorbed into the flow of a northern=20
stream trough dropping down the northern Rockies Friday making the=20
united trough full-latitude (through the length of the CONUS) by=20
Saturday. Subtropical East Pacific moisture ahead of the low trough
will spread across northern Mexico with Gulf moisture surging=20
north as early as Thursday night. Persistent Pacific and Gulf=20
moisture overrunning the arctic-sourced airmass will result the=20
full wintry p-type scenario from plain rain near the Gulf Coast to=20
freezing rain not too far inland, to sleet north of that and=20
finally snow where the warm nose remains subzero. The main notes=20
for the 00Z cycle is a northward shift in both QPF and the thermal=20 profiles/warm nose. However, the surface cold air should continue=20
to progress so in a sense the broadness of the winter weather swath
is still expanding (stretching from the Gulf Coast to the central=20
Plains). The precip intensification Friday night through Saturday=20
will be remarkable over the southern Plains and Mid-South with=20
heavy rates and likely catastrophic impacts for at least local=20
scales given the risk for over an inch of ice accretion and deep=20
snow with heavy sleet in between. Residents should prepare for=20
prolonged power outages that occur during the coldest air of the=20
season. Please monitor the forecast for your area via weather.gov.=20
With so much heavy precip occurring just after the WWD time range=20
ending 12Z Saturday, probabilities will be presented through 00Z=20
Sunday (Day 3.5). Day 3.5 PWPF for > 8" is 50-80% across much of=20
the central/southern CO Rockies through the central NM ranges with=20
a wide swath of 20-50% from much of OK, northern AR along the TN/KY
border to the southern Appalachians. Day 3.5 PWPF for >0.5" is=20
20-50% from northeast TX across the LA/AR border and northern MS=20
and northwest AL.=20


...Great Lakes...=20
Days 1-3...

Sprawling Hudson Bay vortex dominates the continental pattern
through this week. Within the broad cyclonic pattern, a pair of=20 shortwaves/clippers cross the Great Lakes through tonight with=20
associated 850-700 mb frontogenesis driving east-west oriented=20
snow bands over WI again and the Great Lakes. Day 1 PWPF for >4"=20
is 50% over southwest MI, northwest PA/western NY and over the Tug
Hill and Mohawk Valley. Northern lake LES continues then through
Friday. Day 2 PWPF for >4" is 50-80% for the Keweenaw and eastern=20
U.P., northern L.P., and the Tug Hill to the western Adirondacks.=20
These values diminish Saturday under surface ridging under the core
of the Arctic cold.


Jackson


...Winter Storm Key Messages remain in effect for extreme cold and
a major winter storm for the south. They are linked below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!6TkyJsUVAAqGEjMXf63mjHBuW427QXBU54gcPNA4JaazV= CZVSrgAWf2a7OjMjHN5lztAe-3wWz8lG44mcV-Fe50kOA0$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!6TkyJsUVAAqGEjMXf63mjHBuW427QXBU54gcPNA4JaazV= CZVSrgAWf2a7OjMjHN5lztAe-3wWz8lG44mcV-F-DbOOYI$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 212105
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 00Z Sun Jan 25 2026


***Major Winter Storm To Bring Significant Impacts To The South
Friday Through This Weekend, Expanding Up The East Coast Saturday
Night Into Sunday***

...Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Mid-South,
Southern & Central Appalachians, & Mid-Atlantic...
Days 2-3...

The ingredients for the impending major winter storm begin to take
shape Thursday night. A broad upper trough located off Baja
California will work in tandem with a ridge axis near Mexico to
direct a rich plume of tropical East Pacific moisture into the
Southern Rockies and Plains. At the same time, an arctic front
ushers in the coldest temperatures this season across the Great=20
Plains with a highly anomalous dome of arctic high pressure=20
building in over the North Central U.S.. As high pressure rushes=20
south, easterly upslope flow induced between the high pressure to=20
the north and lower pressure near California will cause upslope=20
flow into the higher terrain of the CO and NM Rockies with lighter=20
snowfall in the central High Plains. WPC probabilities show high=20
chances (>70%) for snowfall above 9,000ft in the CO/NM Rockies=20
through Saturday afternoon.

Precipitation will blossom over much of KS, OK, and TX Friday, starting
as rain across much of TX initially, but look for precipitation to
transition to snow over KS, northern OK, and the TX Panhandle by=20
Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, strengthening low-=20
level WAA will over-run the incoming sub-freezing layer in the=20
lowest 2,000ft of the atmosphere from West Texas to as far east as=20
the Mid-South. Sleet will become more prevalent over the Red River=20
Valley, north-central AR, and into western TN, while freezing rain
is the primary preip type from the TX Hill Country through the=20
ArkLaTex and as far east as the TN Valley. Heavy sleet is possible
in some of these areas with multiple inches of sleet possible
through Saturday. The slow progression of the upper trough over=20
Baja California and the bitterly cold arctic air-mass anchored=20
over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS is a recipe ripe for=20
prolonged freezing rain from central TX to as far east as the=20
southern Appalachians through 00Z Sunday. WPC probabilities show=20 concerningly high probabilities (50-70%) for ice accumulations=20
through 00Z Sunday over one-quarter inch. The areas of greatest=20
concern are over the ArkLaTx, southern AR, northern LA, northern=20
MS/AL, and southern TN where low-to-moderate chances (30-50%)=20
exist for over one-half inch of ice. While this discussion is=20
geared to the short term (ending 00Z Sunday) the ice in all these=20
areas are forecast to continue through Saturday night and even into
Sunday. There is great concern for extensive tree damage and power
outages from central TX on east through the Mid-South and into the
Southern Appalachians into Sunday.

Farther north, the air-mass through the depth of the atmospheric
column remains cold enough to support all snow from the Central
Plains on east through the Ozarks and across northern TN and much
of KY beginning Friday evening in the Plains, then into the TN/OH
Valleys Saturday morning. By midday and into Saturday afternoon,
periods of snow will reach the southern and central Appalachians
and potentially the VA/NC Piedmont. Snowfall rates topping 1"/hr=20
are likely in areas just north of the strongest 850-700mb FGEN=20
zone and vertical velocities are highest in a highly saturated=20
dendritic growth zone in the Central Plains and OH Valley. The=20
very cold temperatures over KS on east through MS and into the OH=20
Valley will cause SLRs to range anywhere from between 12-18:1 with=20
the higher SLRs over KS. WPC probabilities through 00Z Sunday=20
depict high chances (>70%) for >4" of snow over central and=20
southern KS, much of northern OK, the TX Panhandle, and into the=20
Ozarks of northern AR and southern MO. The best chances for >8" of=20
snowfall reside over the Ozarks where moderate chance probabilities
(40-60%) are present.=20

Similar to the ice, the snow will by no means be over given the=20
extensive plume of anomalous moisture emanating out of the East=20
Pacific. By Saturday night, southerly flow out of the Gulf will=20
continue to direct copious amounts of moisture into the eastern
U.S., resulting in a highly disruptive and dangerous winter storm
from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic. WPC continues to issue Key
Messages for this winter storm and a link to them can be found
below.


...Great Lakes...=20
Days 1-3...

A Hudson Bay vortex pivoting south through Ontario will sustain the
seemingly endless cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes and their
usual snow belts. 500mb heights associated with this powerful upper
low are quite anomalous (below the 1st climatological percentile
in southern Ontario Thursday into Friday night). WPC probabilities
highlight high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >4" over the
northern tier of the U.P., western MI, along the Chautauqua Ridge
on north into western NY, and down wind of Lake Ontario over the
Tug Hill. The Tug Hill most notably will continue to receive very
heavy snow over the next few days highlighted by WPC 72-hour
probabilities sporting high chances (>70%) in the Tug Hill. A
growing concern is for snow squalls over the Northeast. WPC
initiated Key Messages for what appear to be multiple rounds of
snow squalls from western NY on east through New England, with=20
some squalls possible as far south as northern PA. The final round
of squalls are expected on Friday as an arctic front traverses the
region, causing steep lapse rates and focused vertical ascent. For
more details on the snow squall threat in the Northeast through
Friday, please refer to our Key Messages.


Mullinax



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4leUoWpjIV7yE2h8DceGN34RPg1d4yvNkmbTFjbw31Qzn= tpehh7jECz3HdwJRagEcw4-6zFuFEKoWCJC7xOHFH7tjJY$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4leUoWpjIV7yE2h8DceGN34RPg1d4yvNkmbTFjbw31Qzn= tpehh7jECz3HdwJRagEcw4-6zFuFEKoWCJC7xOHAW-kv9A$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_3.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4leUoWpjIV7yE2h8DceGN34RPg1d4yvNkmbTFjbw31Qzn= tpehh7jECz3HdwJRagEcw4-6zFuFEKoWCJC7xOHnzl7X1Y$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 220845
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026


***Significant Winter Storm To Bring Potentially Crippling Impacts
To Parts Of The South Friday Through This Weekend, Expanding Up=20
The East Coast Saturday Night Into Sunday***

...Southern Rockies and Southern Plains through the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic...
Days 2-3...

Estimated over 130 million residents under winter weather headlines
this morning as confidence continues to increase on a highly=20
impactful and extremely wide- reaching winter storm to begin on=20
Friday across the south-central U.S., eventually pushing towards=20
the East Coast by Saturday night into Sunday. Guidance has nearly=20 unanimously converged on the upper low churning just west of=20
southern CA (sampled by recon aircraft for the recent 00z model=20
suite) to eject eastward ahead of a diving northern stream=20
shortwave and fully phase by the day 4 timeframe. Uncertainty=20
remains associated with the speed of the approaching northern=20
stream trough, which eventually leads to the amplified pattern in=20
the central/eastern U.S.. However, this uncertainty has decreased=20
tonight as guidance converges on cluster 1 from WPC's 12z 1/21=20
clusters. Some guidance remains more amped (CMC/ECMWF) than others=20
(GFS) and leads to some lingering uncertainty regarding the=20
northern extent of heavy QPF and the mid- level warm nose. However,
all scenarios now point to a large QPF footprint falling in the=20
form of frozen precipitation and resulting in a significant winter
storm.

The aforementioned southern CA upper low will help surge ample=20
Pacific moisture (above the 90th climatological percentile per the=20
12z NAEFS) into the southern U.S. by Friday night, where a deep=20
arctic airmass is placed in ideal position for overrunning and=20
wintry precipitation. This arctic airmass in place is brought to=20
the region by a near record 1050mb surface high pressure over the=20
Northern Plains on Friday. As time progresses this high pressure is
expected to moderate and evolve into more of a "banana" look,=20
which is classic for heavy winter precipitation in the East as
low-levl cold air continues to sink southward towards a stationary
front forecast to stretch along the Gulf Coast. A few weak areas of
low pressure are forecast to form along this front before gradually
lifting northward into the TN Valley and along the Carolina=20
coastline by the end of D3. Decided to split up the remainder of=20
the discussion into hazard- type categories given this event covers
such a massive amount of real- estate. For local forecasts and=20
more details, read your local WFOs AFD.

Heavy Freezing Rain/Sleet...
Arguably the most lasting impact associated with this winter storm
could be from heavy accumulating freezing rain and sleet=20
stretching from the southern Plains, Mid-South, Tennessee Valley,=20
and southern Mid- Atlantic. This is due to very cold low-level=20
arctic air being reinforced by the strong high over the north-=20
central U.S. and a warm nose aloft (at around 750mb per cross=20
section model soundings) melting snow as it falls through the=20
column before refreezing just before or at the surface. The=20
greatest freezing rain amounts and impacts are currently forecast=20
across northeast TX through northern MS as favorable thermal=20
profiles linger for over 24 hours beginning Friday night. WPC=20
72-hour probabilities for >0.5" of freezing rain are high >70%=20
across southern AR into parts of northwest MS. Here, ice accretion=20
could be crippling and exceed 0.75-1.00", which would very likely=20
lead to widespread long- lasting damage to infrastructure,=20
including power outages and tree damage. Major sleet accumulations
are also likely just north of the freezing rain area stretching=20
from southern OK/north TX through central AR and into the Mid-
South, with more than a few inches of sleet possible. This could=20
make for treacherous driving conditions and lasting travel impacts=20
due to the bitterly cold airmass expected to linger into next week=20
over the region.

Heavy icing is also likely into the TN Valley and nearby southern=20 Appalachians and Mid- Atlantic, where freezing rain continues=20
beyond the D3 timeframe. The setup across the southern Mid-Atlantic
down as far south as northern GA and areas just inland from the=20
coasts of the Carolinas is an extreme case of CAD with a 1040mb=20
high situated over the Interior Northeast on Saturday night. This=20
high pressure filters very low/dry dew points with values below
zero prior to precip onset late Saturday. This cold air wedge
remains sharply locked in place at the surface for the remainder=20
of the event as 700-850mb temperatures begin to increase well above
freezing by the end of D3 throughout the Carolinas and northern=20
GA. WPC probabilities for >0.25" of freezing rain accretion through
12z Sun. are currently 40-70% from northern AL/TN through northern
GA and into the Midlands of SC and areas just inland of the NC=20
Tidewater region. Heavy sleet accumulations are also possible where
the low-level column remains colder into VA Piedmont.

Heavy Snow...
North of the mixed precipitation area and closely tide to both a=20
favorable LFQ of a zonally oriented 180kt upper jet and strong=20
700mb fgen, snow is the primary precipitation type stretching from=20
the southern High Plains of east-central NM and the southern=20
Rockies through the Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley,=20
and Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. Favorable upslope flow as the=20
strong arctic high pressure noses southward along the High Plains=20
starts on Friday across the southern Rockies, with light snow and=20
even a chance for freezing drizzle at onset across the central=20
Plains until the column fully saturates. Heavy snow is then=20
forecast to begin breaking out Friday night from the=20
central/southern Plains through the mid-Mississippi Valley and=20
spanning much of the Ohio Valley and parts of the Midwest on=20
Saturday. Snowfall rates could near 1"/hr as strong lift intersects
with a region about 150 miles north of the mixed precip zone where=20
the DGZ is forecast to be extremely deep (about 500 mb per areal=20
average soundings). This would allow for efficient formation of=20
dendrites where ample lift can fully moisture the column. Should a=20
region remain in this zone for a longer enough period it's not out=20
of the realm of possibility 30:1 snow ratios are observed.=20
However, most locations appears to progressively see this favorable
DGZ move east-northeast with time and shrink as mid-level=20
temperatures increase above -8C and allows for more needles than=20
dendrites. WPC probabilities for >6" of snow through 12z Sun. are=20
medium to high (30-70%) stretching from east-central NM and the TX=20
Panhandle across northern OK, into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.=20
These probabilities increase to above 70% in the Ohio Valley,=20
where 8-10" of snow is possible. The widespread nature of this
heavy snow is likely to significantly impact both ground and air
travel in the region.

One area that is slowly becoming the most favorable location for=20
heavy snowfall rates and potentially the most impressive snowfall=20
amounts is the central Appalachians, northern VA, MD, and southern=20
PA through early Sunday. As the upper level trough deepens over the
central U.S. Saturday night, mid- level flow begins to increase=20
out ahead of it and meets the mid-level warm front stretching from
the eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid- Atlantic. Several 00z models
highlight increasing 700mb fgen over the eastern Ohio Valley and=20
into central VA by late D3, which supports the potential for an=20
extended period of 1"/hr rates across much of eastern WV,=20
central/northern VA, MD, and southern PA. The 0C warm nose may=20
begin to approach northern VA by the end of D3, but areas just to=20
the north could see 6-12" by sunrise on Sunday as precipitation=20
lingering further into the day on Sunday. Snow ratios will also be
favorable at onset and could potentially exceed 20:1 within
enhanced banding, which is well above the 11:1 climatology in the
region. Current WPC probabilities through D3 are medium to high=20
(40-70%) for at least 8" of snow, this includes areas just west of=20
I-95 from D.C. to Baltimore. Heavy snow is expected to continue=20
stretching into the Northeast and New England on Sunday, see WPC's=20
Extended Forecast Discussion for more. Also, see the Key Messages=20
linked at the bottom of this discussion.


...Great Lakes...=20
Days 1-2...

A Hudson Bay vortex pivoting south through Ontario will sustain the
seemingly endless cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes and their
usual snow belts before strong high pressure builds overhead on D3
and ends this lake effect pattern for the time being. 500mb=20
heights associated with this powerful upper low are quite anomalous
(below the 1st climatological percentile per 12z NAEFS in southern
Ontario Thursday into Friday night). WPC probabilities highlight=20
medium-high chances (>60%) for snowfall totals >6" over the=20
northern tier of the U.P., along the Chautauqua Ridge on north=20
into western NY, and down wind of Lake Ontario over the Tug Hill.=20
The Tug Hill most notably will continue to receive very heavy snow=20
over the next few days highlighted by WPC 48-hour probabilities=20
sporting high chances (>70%) for >8" in the Tug Hill.=20

A growing concern is for snow squalls over the Northeast. WPC=20
initiated Key Messages for what appear to be multiple rounds of=20
snow squalls from western NY on east through New England, with some
squalls possible as far south as northern PA early today. This is
highlighted well in CAMs snow squall parameter, with highest
potential on Thursday from western PA through central NY. The=20
final round of squalls are expected on Friday as an arctic front=20
traverses the region, causing steep lapse rates and focused=20
vertical ascent. This front will also usher dangerously cold
temperatures and wind chills. For more details on the snow squall=20
threat in the Northeast through Friday, please refer to our Key=20
Messages.


Snell




...Winter Storm/Snow Squall/Extreme Cold Key Messages are in=20
effect. Please see current Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4SOx9iXiM3PgwTKiPMC2-PfsGt8BJz0BBMMz9h4kUUIjD= IQTQvpLmpBzti1jhxxLn8WLhLWkb5WyZSxjoet_GDZdtno$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4SOx9iXiM3PgwTKiPMC2-PfsGt8BJz0BBMMz9h4kUUIjD= IQTQvpLmpBzti1jhxxLn8WLhLWkb5WyZSxjoet_AHZ3rCs$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_3.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4SOx9iXiM3PgwTKiPMC2-PfsGt8BJz0BBMMz9h4kUUIjD= IQTQvpLmpBzti1jhxxLn8WLhLWkb5WyZSxjoet_3CqF82U$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 221959
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 00Z Mon Jan 26 2026


...Major winter storm to bring the potential for crippling icing,=20 significant sleet, and heavy snow from the Southern Plains through=20
the Southeast and up the Atlantic Coast into New England...

The event will begin Friday morning across the Southern Plains. The
driver of this event is an impressive overlap of intensifying
synoptic ascent with increasing subtropical moisture.=20

The synoptic pattern becomes favorable Friday in response to the
evolution of multiple shortwaves rotating through an amplifying
trough across the eastern CONUS. A closed 500mb low off the Baja
Peninsula will begin to open and shear to the east, at the same
time dual shortwaves dig out of Saskatchewan/Alberta and into the
Northern Plains. As the northern shortwaves dive south and the Baja
low ejects east, the interaction of these features will lead to
increasing mid-level divergence overlapping pronounced height falls
to produce rich deep layer lift. This will be on top of an arctic
cold front that will be sagging southward into the Southern Plains
and eventually work its way southeast to the Gulf and Atlantic
coasts by Saturday. This overlapping ascent will materialize atop a
moistening column as subtropical moisture downstream of the Baja
low streams northeast reflected by IVT that reaches above the 97th
percentile according to NAEFS, in a broad swath from Texas to the
Carolinas, with above the record (CFSR at 00Z) climatology by
Sunday evening in the east.=20

This increasing moisture will result in a large swath of
precipitation expanding from the Southern Plains Friday, to the
Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley Saturday, into the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic by Sunday, and finally reaching the
Northeast Sunday night. This is a very large and impactful system
across a huge portion of this country. While impacts will be
considerable in many areas (aided by extreme cold), the icing (and
sleet) and snow will be most impressive across two distinct areas.

Freezing Rain and Sleet:
Arguably the most lasting impact associated with this winter storm
could be from heavy accumulating freezing rain and sleet stretching
from the southern Plains, Mid- South, Tennessee Valley, and
southern Mid-Atlantic. This is due to very cold low-level arctic
air being reinforced by the strong high over the north-central U.S.
(and enhanced by pronounced mid-level confluence over the Great
Lakes and New England) and a warm nose aloft (at around 750mb per
cross section model soundings) melting snow as it falls through the
column before refreezing just before or at the surface,and in some
places this re-freezing layer is above the 90th percentile in terms
of depth, suggesting some locations will experience exceptional
sleet accumulations.=20

The greatest freezing rain amounts and impacts are currently=20
forecast across northeast TX through northern MS as favorable=20
thermal profiles linger for over 24 hours beginning Friday night.=20
WPC 72-hour probabilities for >0.5" of freezing rain are high >70%=20
across southern AR into parts of northwest MS. Here, ice accretion=20
could be crippling and exceed 0.75-1.00", (WPC probabilities above
50% for 1" if ice) which would almost certainly lead to widespread
long-lasting damage to infrastructure, including power outages and
tree damage. Major sleet accumulations are also likely just north=20
of the freezing rain area stretching from southern OK/north TX=20
through central AR and into the Mid- South, with more than a few=20
inches of sleet possible. The consistency of the guidance in both=20
placement and amounts for this area are resulting in high=20
confidence in an extreme event, leading to long-lasting impacts=20
both to travel and infrastructure due to the bitterly cold airmass=20
expected to linger into next week over the region.

Heavy icing is also expected farther east into the southern=20
Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. The setup across the=20
southern Mid- Atlantic down as far south as northern GA and areas=20
just inland from the coasts of the Carolinas is an extreme case of=20
CAD with a 1040mb high situated over the Interior Northeast on=20
Saturday night. While regional soundings indicate there may be
considerable sleet in this area as well, especially across southern
VA into northern NC, these CADs are notorious for their effective dry/isallobaric flow, enhanced by precipitation, leading to dry
wet-bulb advection offsetting the latent heat of freezing during
freezing rain. With such an impressive high in place at
precipitation onset, this will likely result in considerable
accumulations of sleet and freezing rain here, too, with WPC
probabilities indicating a moderate risk (50-70%) of at least 0.5",
highest across the Piedmont. The guidance has trended just a bit
colder this afternoon, but significant icing is also possible as
far north as Richmond, VA and towards the Chesapeake Bay.


Heavy Snow:
North of the mixed precipitation area and closely tied to both a
favorable LFQ of a zonally oriented 180kt upper jet and strong
700mb fgen, snow is the primary precipitation type stretching from
the southern High Plains of east-central NM and the southern
Rockies through the Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and reaching the Northeast by Sunday evening (with
additional expansion beyond this forecast period).=20

Favorable upslope flow as the strong arctic high pressure noses=20
southward along the High Plains behind a strong cold front starts=20
on Friday across the southern Rockies, with light snow and even a=20
chance for freezing drizzle at onset across the central Plains=20
until the column fully saturates. Heavy snow is then forecast to=20
begin breaking out Friday night from the central/southern Plains=20
through the mid-Mississippi Valley and spanning much of the Ohio=20
Valley and parts of the Midwest on Saturday. Snowfall rates could=20
near 1"/hr as strong lift through WAA/fgen intersects with a=20
region where the DGZ is forecast to be extremely deep (SREF
probabilities above 70% for >100mb of depth). This would allow for
efficient formation of dendrites where ample lift can fully=20
moisture the column. While this depth is impressive, regional
forecast soundings indicate that the best ascent may lie below this
DGZ in many areas, and there is only modest indication of any
isothermal layer beneath the DGZ to maintain aggregates. Despite
this, efficient and fluffy SLRs are likely in this area, and with a
long duration event expected, WPC probabilities are moderate
(30-50% )for at least 12 inches from eastern KS and OK into=20
southern MO, with widespread 4+ inches extending all the way back
into the TX Panhandle and lower MS VLY.

Farther east, some heavier snowfall is becoming more likely for
parts of the Ohio Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic, and especially
Northeast. Here, pronounced WAA and accompanying 850-700mb fgen
will drive pronounced ascent into a rapidly moistening column
thanks to IVT above the 90th climatological percentile. As the
upper trough (interaction of the southern and northern streams)
deepens over the Plains, downstream ascent will maximize and a
period of impressive WAA snow with snowfall rates >1"/hr are
likely. As secondary low pressure develops offshore (in a Miller B
type evolution), banded structures within the WAA are likely to
translate northward from the Mid-Atlantic into New England, and
then may pivot and drift eastward Sunday night into Monday. Where
this occurs, the heaviest total snowfall accumulations are
probable, reflected by WPC probabilities that are already above 50%
for 12+ inches, and this is even with more of the event beyond this
forecast period (into New England). While there is some uncertainty
into how much mixing will pivot northward, especially closer to the
coast from Richmond, VA through Long Island, the interior portions
(NW of I-95 and into southern New England which will remain cold as
the secondary low develops and tracks near the 40/70 Benchmark)
will remain all snow with above-climo SLRs leading to significant
snowfall accumulations. Many areas are expected to receive more
than 12 inches from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic and
into the Northeast before this system winds down on Monday /D4/.

Key Messages for this system are linked below (Key Message 2)


...Great Lakes...=20
Days 1-2...

Expansive mid-level low centered over the Hudson Bay will track
slowly southward this evening and then begin to shear open and
translate to the east as a secondary shortwave rotates through its
base and atop the Great Lakes Friday evening. Behind this impulse,
shortwave ridging will amplify across the area, bringing an end to
the persistent CAA and associated lake-induced ascent.

The subsequent W/NW flow and accompanying CAA will lead to
impressive lake effect snow (LES) in the favored W/NW snow belts
D1, with some pivoting to more N/NW D2 before waning. The heaviest
snowfall is likely east of Lake Ontario D1 where WPC
probabilities indicate a high risk (>70%) for at least 12 inches,=20
and 1-2 feet is possible across the Tug Hill Plateau. Elsewhere,=20
WPC probabilities suggest a moderate risk (50-70%) for at least 4=20
inches along the Chautauqua Ridge, western MI (east shore of Lake=20
Michigan) and across the northern U.P. During D2 the precipitation=20
intensity will weaken, but WPC probabilities suggest a moderate=20
risk (30-70%) for at least 2 inches in far NW IN and southeast of=20
Lake Ontario, before the shortwave ridging brings an end to this=20
round of LES.

Additionally, and this pivots into the Northeast as well, a second
round of snow squalls is possible on Friday along and behind an
arctic cold front traversing the region. For more details on the=20
snow squall threat in the Northeast through Friday, please refer to
our Key Messages (Key Messages 3) below.


Snell/Weiss





...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!-ZbcCxUHFaZzUCjVjcXjC8-1-t_ZYP0Ds_0gTb0a3UKg7= LWejAi__n66qDCj_90esw97-mNA9zZNPcoKLnZx6xUubt8$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!-ZbcCxUHFaZzUCjVjcXjC8-1-t_ZYP0Ds_0gTb0a3UKg7= LWejAi__n66qDCj_90esw97-mNA9zZNPcoKLnZx7Mmwhog$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_3.png__;!!DZ3fjg!-ZbcCxUHFaZzUCjVjcXjC8-1-t_ZYP0Ds_0gTb0a3UKg7= LWejAi__n66qDCj_90esw97-mNA9zZNPcoKLnZx13dN6Ms$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 230858
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026


...Major winter storm to bring the potential for crippling icing,=20 significant sleet, and heavy snow from the Southern Plains through=20
the Southeast and up the Atlantic Coast into New England...

Forecast remains largely on track with only minor changes compared
to the previous cycle, with typical uncertainties surrounding the=20
depth and northern push of the mid-level warm nose. While this=20
uncertainty is rather minor from a synoptic scale, local forecasts=20
can still be drastically impacted by this feature. The event will=20
begin this morning across the Southern Plains and expand towards
the MS VLY tonight. The driver of this winter storm is an=20
impressive overlap of intensifying synoptic ascent with increasing=20 subtropical moisture.

The synoptic pattern becomes favorable today in response to the=20
evolution of multiple shortwaves rotating through an amplifying=20
trough across the eastern CONUS. A closed 500mb low off the Baja=20
Peninsula will begin to open and shear to the east, at the same=20
time dual shortwaves dig out of Saskatchewan/Alberta and into the=20
Northern Plains. As the northern shortwaves dive south and the Baja
low ejects east, the interaction of these features will lead to=20
increasing mid-level divergence overlapping pronounced height falls
to produce rich deep layer lift. The northern shortwave has=20
trended a tad slower with overnight guidance and allows for more
ridging out ahead of this system, helping shift the mid-level warm
nose farther north. Regardless, the impressive ascent will be on=20
top of an arctic cold front that will be sagging southward into the
Southern Plains and eventually work its way southeast to the Gulf=20
and Atlantic coasts by Saturday. This overlapping ascent will=20
materialize atop a moistening column as subtropical moisture=20
downstream of the Baja low streams northeast reflected by IVT that=20
reaches above the 97th percentile according to NAEFS, in a broad=20
swath from Texas to the Carolinas, with above the record (CFSR at=20
00Z) climatology by Sunday evening in the east.

This increasing moisture will result in a large swath of
precipitation expanding from the Southern Plains today, to the=20
MS VLY and TN VLY Saturday, into the Carolinas and Mid- Atlantic=20
by Sunday, and finally reaching the Northeast Sunday night. This is
a very large and impactful system across a huge portion of this=20
country. While impacts will be considerable in many areas (aided by
extreme cold), the icing (and sleet) and snow will be most=20
impressive across two distinct areas.

Freezing Rain and Sleet:
Arguably the most lasting impact associated with this winter storm
could be from heavy accumulating freezing rain and sleet stretching
from the Southern Plains, Mid- South, Tennessee Valley, and=20
southern Mid-Atlantic. This is due to very cold low-level arctic=20
air being reinforced by the strong high over the north-central U.S.
(and enhanced by pronounced mid-level confluence over the Great=20
Lakes and New England) and a warm nose aloft (at around 750mb per=20
cross section model soundings) melting snow as it falls through the
column before refreezing just before or at the surface,and in some
places this re-freezing layer is above the 90th percentile in=20
terms of depth, suggesting some locations will experience=20
exceptional sleet accumulations.=20

The greatest freezing rain amounts and impacts are currently=20
forecast across northeast TX through northern MS as favorable=20
thermal profiles linger for over 24 hours beginning Friday night.=20
WPC 72-hour probabilities for >0.5" of freezing rain are high >70%=20
across southern AR/northern LA into parts of northern MS. Here,=20
ice accretion could be crippling and exceed 0.75-1.00", (WPC=20
probabilities 40-50% for 1" of ice) which would almost certainly=20
lead to widespread long-lasting damage to infrastructure, including
power outages and tree damage. Major sleet accumulations are also=20
likely just north of the freezing rain area stretching from=20
southern OK/north TX through central AR and into the Mid- South,=20
with more than a few inches of sleet possible. The consistency of=20
the guidance in both placement and amounts for this area are=20
resulting in high confidence in an extreme event, leading to long-=20
lasting impacts both to travel and infrastructure due to the=20
bitterly cold airmass expected to linger into next week over the=20
region.

Heavy icing is also expected farther east into the southern=20
Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. The setup across the=20
southern Mid- Atlantic down as far south as northern GA and areas=20
just inland from the coasts of the Carolinas is an extreme case of=20
CAD with a 1040mb high situated over the Interior Northeast on=20
Saturday night. While regional soundings indicate there may be
considerable sleet in this area as well, especially across southern
VA into northern NC, these CADs are notorious for their effective dry/isallobaric flow, enhanced by precipitation, leading to dry
wet-bulb advection offsetting the latent heat of freezing during
freezing rain. With such an impressive high in place at
precipitation onset, this will likely result in considerable
accumulations of sleet and freezing rain here, too, with WPC
probabilities indicating a moderate-to-high risk (60-80%) of at=20
least 0.5", highest across the Piedmont and northern GA. The=20
guidance has trended just a bit colder this afternoon, but=20
significant icing is also possible as far north as Richmond, VA and
towards southern MD.

Heavy Snow:
North of the mixed precipitation area and closely tied to both a
favorable LFQ of a zonally oriented 180kt upper jet and strong
700mb fgen, snow is the primary precipitation type stretching from
the southern High Plains of east-central NM and the southern
Rockies through the Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and reaching the Northeast by Sunday evening (with
additional expansion beyond this forecast period).=20

Favorable upslope flow as the strong arctic high pressure noses=20
southward along the High Plains behind a strong cold front starts=20
on Friday across the southern Rockies, with light snow and even a=20
chance for freezing drizzle at onset across the central Plains=20
until the column fully saturates. Heavy snow is then forecast to=20
begin breaking out Friday night from the central/southern Plains=20
through the mid-Mississippi Valley and spanning much of the Ohio=20
Valley and parts of the Midwest on Saturday. Snowfall rates could=20
near 1"/hr as strong lift through WAA/fgen intersects with a=20
region where the DGZ is forecast to be extremely deep (SREF
probabilities above 70% for >100mb of depth). This would allow for
efficient formation of dendrites where ample lift can fully=20
moisture the column. While this depth is impressive, regional
forecast soundings indicate that the best ascent may lie below this
DGZ in many areas, and there is only modest indication of any
isothermal layer beneath the DGZ to maintain aggregates. Despite
this, efficient and fluffy SLRs are likely in this area, and with a
long duration event expected, WPC probabilities are moderate
(40-60% )for at least 12 inches from southeastern KS and
northeastern OK into southern MO, with widespread 4+ inches=20
extending all the way back into the TX Panhandle and lower MS VLY.
Trends have been more favorable for snow vs lately on D1 across
eastern OK and central AR as guidance depicts stronger mid-level
fgen and dynamic cooling aloft to keep the entire column below 0C.
00z HREF also depicts the potential for 1"/hr snowfall rates in
this region. Will monitor this for potential adjustments=20
downstream.

Farther east, some heavier snowfall is becoming more likely for
parts of the Ohio Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic, and especially
Northeast. Here, pronounced WAA and accompanying 850-700mb fgen
will drive pronounced ascent into a rapidly moistening column
thanks to IVT above the 90th climatological percentile. As the
upper trough (interaction of the southern and northern streams)
deepens over the Plains, downstream ascent will maximize and a
period of impressive WAA snow with snowfall rates >1"/hr are
likely. As secondary low pressure develops offshore (in a Miller B
type evolution), banded structures within the WAA are likely to
translate northward from the Mid-Atlantic into New England, and
then may pivot and drift eastward Sunday night into Monday. Where
this occurs, the heaviest total snowfall accumulations are
probable, reflected by WPC probabilities that are already above 60%
for 12+ inches. While there is some uncertainty into how much=20
mixing will pivot northward, especially from Washington D.C.=20
through Long Island, the interior portions (NW of I-95 and into=20
southern New England which will remain cold as the secondary low=20
develops and tracks near the 40/70 Benchmark) will remain mostly=20
snow with above- climo SLRs leading to significant snowfall=20
accumulations. One other uncertainty that has creeped into the
forecast is a pesky dry slot moving into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast Sunday night. This could dry out the mid-level and
drastically cut both precipitation and SLRs. In fact, freezing
drizzle could develop early Monday morning from northern Va to
northern NJ in this scenario before stronger westerly flow picks=20
up on Monday. Many areas are expected to receive more than 12=20
inches from the Ohio Valley through the Mid- Atlantic and into the=20
Northeast before this system winds down in New England on Monday=20
/D4/.

Key Messages for this system are linked below (Key Message 2)


...Great Lakes...=20
Day 1...

Expansive mid-level low centered over the Hudson Bay will begin to
shear open and translate to the east today as a secondary=20
shortwave rotates through its base and atop the Great Lakes this
evening. Behind this impulse, shortwave ridging will amplify=20
across the area, bringing an end to the persistent CAA and=20
associated lake- induced ascent on D1.

The subsequent W/NW flow and accompanying CAA will lead to
impressive lake effect snow (LES) in the favored W/NW snow belts
D1, with some pivoting to more N/NW by early Saturday. The=20
heaviest snowfall is likely east of Lake Ontario D1 where WPC=20
probabilities indicate a moderate risk (50-70%) for at least 8
additional inches in the Tug Hill Plateau. Elsewhere, WPC=20
probabilities suggest a moderate risk (50-70%) for at least 6=20
additional inches across the northeastern U.P.

Additionally, as an arctic cold front pivots into the Northeast,=20
snow squalls along and behind this front are possible. For more=20
details on the snow squall threat in the Northeast through Friday,=20
please refer to our Key Messages (Key Messages 3) below.


Snell/Weiss






...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!6i-JszDvIoz4IkeeFVBNKHjZJfHF0Ybqz-c67ZQcVC-f7= lPz-fsyMDtCovzI6Va6oo9mesLuh66CAbzexuk2Xq7kUJc$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!6i-JszDvIoz4IkeeFVBNKHjZJfHF0Ybqz-c67ZQcVC-f7= lPz-fsyMDtCovzI6Va6oo9mesLuh66CAbzexuk2eCfbSq8$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_3.png__;!!DZ3fjg!6i-JszDvIoz4IkeeFVBNKHjZJfHF0Ybqz-c67ZQcVC-f7= lPz-fsyMDtCovzI6Va6oo9mesLuh66CAbzexuk2Uae-1TY$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS11 KWBC 232057
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 00Z Tue Jan 27 2026


...Major winter storm to bring the potential for crippling icing,=20 significant sleet, and heavy snow from the Southern Plains through=20
the Southeast and up the Atlantic Coast into New England...

Meteorological Overview...

A massive winter storm, set to produce a swath of heavy snow and=20
dangerous ice accumulations, has begun today as tropical East=20
Pacific moisture streams out ahead of the 500mb closed low near the
Baja Peninsula. This moisture plume is clashing with the coldest=20
air-mass of the season, entrenching itself over the Nation's=20
Heartland. The moisture transport is exceptional with an
integrated vapor transport (IVT) above the 97.5 climatological=20
percentile per ECMWF SATs. The rich moisture from the south will=20
accompany strong 850-700mb WAA that results in classic over-runing=20
along a developing area of 850-700mb FGEN atop the Southern Plains.
Meanwhile, the upper trough in the Southwest and an emerging=20
upper- level shortwave trough over the Dakotas will strengthen a=20
250mb jet streak over the east-central U.S., placing its thermally-
direct right-entrance region over the Southern Plains. This=20
synoptic- scale setup helps to enhance the mesoscale below,=20
fostering heavy bands of snow and even elevated instability above=20
the low-level sub-freezing layer over north TX on east into the=20
Mid-South tonight and into Saturday.

By Saturday, as the upper low near Baja approaches Texas, its=20
associated jet streak over Mexico will co-locate its divergent=20
left-exit region over the Mid-South and maximize upper-level ascent
over the region. The IVT in advance of the upper trough over=20
Mexico is both expansive and strong with >90th climatological=20
percentile IVT values originating south of Mexico and extending all
the way to the Southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon. The=20
remarkable extent of the IVT and the slow progression of the Mexico
trough is why parts of the South and Mid-Atlantic are likely to=20
see snow, sleet, and freezing rain for over 24 hours and in some=20
cases approaching 48 hours. As arctic high pressure slides east, a=20
cold-air damming (CAD) signature will become well pronounced along=20
and east of the Appalachians as anomalous Pacific and Gulf moisture
arrives, leading to precipitation falling into the frigid air-mass
and supporting heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain totals from=20
the southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic.=20

Saturday night and into Sunday is where most changes in the
forecast have unfolded of late. It remains unclear just how strong
the emerging area of low pressure near the Gulf Coast will be and=20
how far north it gets. It is noteworthy that guidance is in good=20
agreement on 700mb Q-vector convergence over northern AL and the=20
southern Appalachians, but the GFS is a little farther south in=20
positioning while the ECMWF is a littler farther north and=20
stronger, resulting in the northern shifts over the last couple=20
days. What they do both agree on is by Sunday, a very pronounced=20
area of strong 700mb Q-vector convergence will unfold along the=20
Mid-Atlantic coast, prompting the development of a coastal low=20
along a strengthening coastal front. With the benefit of the 250mb
jet streak's divergent right-entrance region aloft and the=20
strengthening IVT (ECMWF SATs show >99.5 climatological percentile=20
values over the Southeast Sunday morning), an expansive=20
precipitation shield will span across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic,=20
and Northeast with excessive amounts of wintry precipitation=20
falling. While there remains some question on precipitation type,=20
the ECMWF EFI shows the QPF is >0.8 from the Southern Plains and=20
Mid-South to the Northeast, implying an unusually high amount of=20
QPF for this time of year will be at this winter storm's disposal=20
as it falls into a bitterly cold Arctic air-mass.=20

Heavy Snow/Sleet...

The latest forecast calls an astonishingly long swath (over 2,000=20
mile long in length) of >6" of snowfall that starts in the Sangre=20
De Cristo and Sacramento mountains of New Mexico all the way to=20
Downeast Maine. It is worth noting that the snowfall probabilities=20
being referenced will have snow and sleet. Focusing on the Plains=20
first, WPC probabilities sport high chances (>70%) for snowfall >8"
over central OK, southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR.=20
There is another impressive swath of high chance probabilities=20

70%) for >8" of snow from southern IN and north-central KY to=20

eastern Maine. The Central Appalachians, interior Northeast, and=20
southern New England are likely to see the most snowfall with high=20
chances (>70%) for over a foot of snow in these areas. In fact, WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for totals=20
over 18" in the Catskills, Berkshires, and eastern MA. Farther=20
south, the inclusion of sleet from NY and Long Island southward=20
along the I-95 corridor will likely cut into snowfall totals.=20 Climatologically speaking, areas west of I-95 where topography=20
increases are most likely to see more snow than sleet. This is=20
evident in the >8" for snow and sleet probabilities where they are=20
high (>70% chances) from northwest VA and north-central MD along=20
Parrs Ridge to the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but below 50% over=20
southern NJ, the MD eastern shore, and south of Fredericksburg, VA.
Still, the WSO shows >50% chances for a warning-level snowfall as=20
far south as central VA on east through the northern DelMarVa and=20
into southern NJ due to the strong 850-700mb FGEN Saturday night=20
and Sunday morning that fosters snowfall rates that could ranges
between 1-2"/hr. So while snowfall/sleet totals are not quite as=20
high as their neighbors to the north, the combination of snow,=20
sleet, and inclusion of some freezing rain still support=20
significant travel disruptions in these southern areas as well.=20

The WSSI shows widespread Major Impacts (considerable disruptions
to daily life: dangerous to impossible driving conditions,=20
widespread closures, and disruptions to infrastructure) from the TX
Panhandle on east to the Ozarks, through the OH Valley, and all the
way to New England. Every major market along the I-95 metropolitan
corridor (Washington D.C. to Boston and even as far north as
Portland, ME) are expecting major impacts due to snow. The=20
D.C/Baltimore area on north to Philly and NYC are likely to see=20
some inclusion of sleet, but it will still result in significant=20
impacts when accounting for heavy snowfall that is expected to
exceed warning criteria (5-6"). A reminder that bitterly cold=20
temperatures will follow in wake of this storm Monday and into the=20
middle of the week throughout the eastern U.S.. The snow/sleet=20
impacts will linger well into next week with rounds of re-freezing=20
that keeps surfaces icy and dangerous to both drive and walk on for
the foreseeable future. Those in the path of this storm should=20
make final preparations and put plans in place for significant=20
travel disruptions this weekend and into at least early next week.


Freezing Rain:

The most lasting and dangerous impact will come as a result of=20
significant to locally catastrophic ice accumulations due to=20
prolonged periods of freezing rain. Just like the swath of >6" of=20
snowfall, the areal coverage of high chances (>50%) in WPC's ice=20 probabilities exceeding one-quarter inch of ice accumulation is=20
both impressive and alarming. From east-central TX to southern AR,=20
northern LA, northern MS, the TN Valley, northern GA, the southern=20 Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic, these regions are all=20
likely to experience anywhere from one-quarter to one-half inch of=20
ice. Widespread power outages and tree damage is likely in these=20
areas, especially from the Lower MS Valley, southern Appalachians,=20
and central NC where there are also high chances (>70%) for ice=20 accumulations over one-half inch. It is parts of northern AL,=20
northern MS, south-central TN, far northern GA, the southern=20
Appalachians, and the NC Piedmont that are of greatest concern.=20
WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (20-40%) for ice=20 accumulations over 1 inch. These areas are likely to endure a=20
crippling ice storm that will take days, if not weeks, of clean up=20
in addition to extended power outages. Residents in these areas=20
should take final preparations now. Once the freezing rain starts,=20
dangerous travel will be common not only during the event, but in=20
the days in wake of the storm due to prolonged sub-freezing=20
temperatures that cause persistent re-freezing on all untreated=20
surfaces. The Key Messages for the Extreme Cold are linked below
(Key Message 1).

Farther east, freezing rain will reach southern VA, the DelMarVa
Peninsula, and as far north as southern NJ. The southern VA
Piedmont, including the Richmond metro area, have moderate chances
(40-60%) for over one-half inch of ice. The WSSI depicts Major=20
Impacts from Richmond on south along I-95 into NC, while Moderate=20
Impacts (hazardous travel conditions) are anticipated as far north=20
as the northern DelMarVa Peninsula and into the Lower Delaware=20
Valley. While most areas farther north towards the Lower Delaware=20
Valley and southern NJ should largely remain sleet, it may=20
transition to freezing rain for a brief time by Sunday evening. WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for over one-=20
tench of an inch of ice accumulations Sunday evening.


Key Messages for this system are linked below (Key Message 2)


Mullinax



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8GUWGIKvjpbH7j06LCzf76dgj7wKmpMcynczXffJXXaY-= mNp6L2dr8o-PiAMPcRJ2YyFHPbCmPdKNKW5sTA1hXXuSxM$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8GUWGIKvjpbH7j06LCzf76dgj7wKmpMcynczXffJXXaY-= mNp6L2dr8o-PiAMPcRJ2YyFHPbCmPdKNKW5sTA1nTFVkNQ$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_3.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8GUWGIKvjpbH7j06LCzf76dgj7wKmpMcynczXffJXXaY-= mNp6L2dr8o-PiAMPcRJ2YyFHPbCmPdKNKW5sTA1sbzsBKw$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
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FOUS11 KWBC 232103
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 00Z Tue Jan 27 2026


...Major winter storm to bring the potential for crippling icing,=20 significant sleet, and heavy snow from the Southern Plains through=20
the Southeast and up the Atlantic Coast into New England...

Meteorological Overview...

A massive winter storm, set to produce a swath of heavy snow and=20
dangerous ice accumulations, has begun today as tropical East=20
Pacific moisture streams out ahead of the 500mb closed low near the
Baja Peninsula. This moisture plume is clashing with the coldest=20
air-mass of the season, entrenching itself over the Nation's=20
Heartland. The moisture transport is exceptional with an
integrated vapor transport (IVT) above the 97.5 climatological=20
percentile per ECMWF SATs. The rich moisture from the south will=20
accompany strong 850-700mb WAA that results in classic over-runing=20
along a developing area of 850-700mb FGEN atop the Southern Plains.
Meanwhile, the upper trough in the Southwest and an emerging=20
upper- level shortwave trough over the Dakotas will strengthen a=20
250mb jet streak over the east-central U.S., placing its thermally-
direct right-entrance region over the Southern Plains. This=20
synoptic- scale setup helps to enhance the mesoscale below,=20
fostering heavy bands of snow and even elevated instability above=20
the low-level sub-freezing layer over north TX on east into the=20
Mid-South tonight and into Saturday.

By Saturday, as the upper low near Baja approaches Texas, its=20
associated jet streak over Mexico will co-locate its divergent=20
left-exit region over the Mid-South and maximize upper-level ascent
over the region. The IVT in advance of the upper trough over=20
Mexico is both expansive and strong with >90th climatological=20
percentile IVT values originating south of Mexico and extending all
the way to the Southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon. The=20
remarkable extent of the IVT and the slow progression of the Mexico
trough is why parts of the South and Mid-Atlantic are likely to=20
see snow, sleet, and freezing rain for over 24 hours and in some=20
cases approaching 48 hours. As arctic high pressure slides east, a=20
cold-air damming (CAD) signature will become well pronounced along=20
and east of the Appalachians as anomalous Pacific and Gulf moisture
arrives, leading to precipitation falling into the frigid air-mass
and supporting heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain totals from=20
the southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic.=20

Saturday night and into Sunday is where most changes in the
forecast have unfolded of late. It remains unclear just how strong
the emerging area of low pressure near the Gulf Coast will be and=20
how far north it gets. It is noteworthy that guidance is in good=20
agreement on 700mb Q-vector convergence over northern AL and the=20
southern Appalachians, but the GFS is a little farther south in=20
positioning while the ECMWF is a littler farther north and=20
stronger, resulting in the northern shifts over the last couple=20
days. What they do both agree on is by Sunday, a very pronounced=20
area of strong 700mb Q-vector convergence will unfold along the=20
Mid-Atlantic coast, prompting the development of a coastal low=20
along a strengthening coastal front. With the benefit of the 250mb
jet streak's divergent right-entrance region aloft and the=20
strengthening IVT (ECMWF SATs show >99.5 climatological percentile=20
values over the Southeast Sunday morning), an expansive=20
precipitation shield will span across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic,=20
and Northeast with excessive amounts of wintry precipitation=20
falling. While there remains some question on precipitation type,=20
the ECMWF EFI shows the QPF is >0.8 from the Southern Plains and=20
Mid-South to the Northeast, implying an unusually high amount of=20
QPF for this time of year will be at this winter storm's disposal=20
as it falls into a bitterly cold Arctic air-mass.=20

Heavy Snow/Sleet...

The latest forecast calls an astonishingly long swath (over 2,000=20
mile long in length) of >6" of snowfall that starts in the Sangre=20
De Cristo and Sacramento mountains of New Mexico all the way to=20
Downeast Maine. It is worth noting that the snowfall probabilities=20
being referenced will have snow and sleet. Focusing on the Plains=20
first, WPC probabilities sport high chances (>70%) for snowfall >8"
over central OK, southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR.=20
There is another impressive swath of high chance probabilities=20

70%) for >8" of snow from southern IN and north-central KY to=20

eastern Maine. The Central Appalachians, interior Northeast, and=20
southern New England are likely to see the most snowfall with high=20
chances (>70%) for over a foot of snow in these areas. In fact, WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for totals=20
over 18" in the Catskills, Berkshires, and eastern MA. Farther=20
south, the inclusion of sleet from NY and Long Island southward=20
along the I-95 corridor will likely cut into snowfall totals.=20 Climatologically speaking, areas west of I-95 where topography=20
increases are most likely to see more snow than sleet. This is=20
evident in the >8" for snow and sleet probabilities where they are=20
high (>70% chances) from northwest VA and north-central MD along=20
Parrs Ridge to the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but below 50% over=20
southern NJ, the MD eastern shore, and south of Fredericksburg, VA.
Still, the WSO shows >50% chances for a warning-level snowfall as=20
far south as central VA on east through the northern DelMarVa and=20
into southern NJ due to the strong 850-700mb FGEN Saturday night=20
and Sunday morning that fosters snowfall rates that could ranges
between 1-2"/hr. So while snowfall/sleet totals are not quite as=20
high as their neighbors to the north, the combination of snow,=20
sleet, and inclusion of some freezing rain still support=20
significant travel disruptions in these southern areas as well.=20

The WSSI shows widespread Major Impacts (considerable disruptions
to daily life: dangerous to impossible driving conditions,=20
widespread closures, and disruptions to infrastructure) from the TX
Panhandle on east to the Ozarks, through the OH Valley, and all the
way to New England. Every major market along the I-95 metropolitan
corridor (Washington D.C. to Boston and even as far north as
Portland, ME) are expecting major impacts due to snow. The=20
D.C/Baltimore area on north to Philly and NYC are likely to see=20
some inclusion of sleet, but it will still result in significant=20
impacts when accounting for heavy snowfall that is expected to
exceed warning criteria (5-6"). A reminder that bitterly cold=20
temperatures will follow in wake of this storm Monday and into the=20
middle of the week throughout the eastern U.S.. The snow/sleet=20
impacts will linger well into next week with rounds of re-freezing=20
that keeps surfaces icy and dangerous to both drive and walk on for
the foreseeable future. Those in the path of this storm should=20
make final preparations and put plans in place for significant=20
travel disruptions this weekend and into at least early next week.


Freezing Rain...

The most lasting and dangerous impact will come as a result of=20
significant to locally catastrophic ice accumulations due to=20
prolonged periods of freezing rain. Just like the swath of >6" of=20
snowfall, the areal coverage of high chances (>50%) in WPC's ice=20 probabilities exceeding one-quarter inch of ice accumulation is=20
both impressive and alarming. From east-central TX to southern AR,=20
northern LA, northern MS, the TN Valley, northern GA, the southern=20 Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic, these regions are all=20
likely to experience anywhere from one-quarter to one-half inch of=20
ice. Widespread power outages and tree damage is likely in these=20
areas, especially from the Lower MS Valley, southern Appalachians,=20
and central NC where there are also high chances (>70%) for ice=20 accumulations over one-half inch.=20

It is parts of northern AL, northern MS, south-central TN, far=20
northern GA, the southern Appalachians, and the NC Piedmont that=20
are of greatest concern. WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate=20
chances (20-40%) for ice accumulations over 1 inch. These areas are
likely to endure a crippling ice storm that will take days, if not
weeks, of clean up in addition to extended power outages. This is=20 demonstrated in a rare Extreme Impact on the WSSI in parts of
northern MS, far southern TN, and the Southern Appalachians. The
WSSI Extreme criteria references the potential for "extensive and=20
widespread closures, extremely dangerous travel, and life-saving=20
actions may be needed." Residents in these all referenced regions=20
above should take final preparations now. Once the freezing rain=20
starts, dangerous travel will be common not only during the event,=20
but in the days in wake of the storm due to prolonged sub-freezing=20 temperatures that cause persistent re-freezing on all untreated=20
surfaces. The Key Messages for the Extreme Cold are linked below=20
(Key Message 1).

Farther east, freezing rain will reach southern VA, the DelMarVa
Peninsula, and as far north as southern NJ. The southern VA
Piedmont, including the Richmond metro area, have moderate chances
(40-60%) for over one-half inch of ice. The WSSI depicts Major=20
Impacts from Richmond on south along I-95 into NC, while Moderate=20
Impacts (hazardous travel conditions) are anticipated as far north=20
as the northern DelMarVa Peninsula and into the Lower Delaware=20
Valley. While most areas farther north towards the Lower Delaware=20
Valley and southern NJ should largely remain sleet, it may=20
transition to freezing rain for a brief time by Sunday evening. WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for over one-=20
tench of an inch of ice accumulations Sunday evening.


Key Messages for this system are linked below (Key Message 2)


Mullinax




...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8yFFARuqbgrlMXfpwPGS4uJRxeJOXQOZNw6H1nZpRTRha= rrS6kEy-awMjMQhdY74aJIFWgelYkKRsYNo7so9y2A1flY$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8yFFARuqbgrlMXfpwPGS4uJRxeJOXQOZNw6H1nZpRTRha= rrS6kEy-awMjMQhdY74aJIFWgelYkKRsYNo7so9tj5CnIA$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_3.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8yFFARuqbgrlMXfpwPGS4uJRxeJOXQOZNw6H1nZpRTRha= rrS6kEy-awMjMQhdY74aJIFWgelYkKRsYNo7so9VdC50ig$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS11 KWBC 240838
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 24 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026


...Ongoing major winter storm to bring the potential for crippling
icing, significant sleet, and heavy snow from the Southern
Rockies/Plains through the Southeast and up the Atlantic Coast=20
into New England...

Meteorological Overview...

Forecast remains on track as a massive winter storm, set to=20
produce a swath of heavy snow and dangerous ice accumulations, has=20
begun across the southern Rockies and Plains as tropical East=20
Pacific moisture streams out ahead of the 500mb closed low near the
Baja Peninsula. This moisture plume is clashing with the coldest=20
air- mass of the season, entrenching itself over the Nation's=20
Heartland. The moisture transport is exceptional with an integrated
vapor transport (IVT) above the 97.5 climatological percentile per
ECMWF SATs. The rich moisture from the south will accompany strong
850-700mb WAA that results in classic over-runing along an area of
850-700mb FGEN stretching from atop the Southern Plains to the TN=20
VLY and southern Mid-Atlantic by tonight. Meanwhile, the upper=20
trough in the Southwest and an emerging upper- level shortwave=20
trough over the Dakotas will strengthen a zonally oriented 250mb=20
jet streak over the east- central U.S., placing its thermally-=20
direct right- entrance region over the Southern Plains and Mid-=20
South. This synoptic- scale setup helps to enhance the mesoscale=20
below, fostering heavy bands of snow and even elevated instability=20
above the low-level sub- freezing layer over north TX on east into=20
the Mid-South today.

As the upper low near Baja approaches Texas by tonight, its=20
associated jet streak over Mexico will co-locate its divergent=20
left-exit region over the southern Plains and Mid-South, maximizing=20
upper- level ascent over the region. The IVT in advance of the=20
upper trough over Mexico is both expansive and strong with >90th=20 climatological percentile IVT values originating south of Mexico=20
and extending all the way to the Southern Appalachians by Saturday=20 afternoon. The remarkable extent of the IVT and the slow=20
progression of the Mexico trough is why parts of the South and Mid-
Atlantic are likely to see snow, sleet, and freezing rain for over
24 hours and in some cases approaching 48 hours. As arctic high=20
pressure slides east, a substantial cold- air damming (CAD)=20
signature will become well pronounced along and east of the=20
Appalachians as anomalous Pacific and Gulf moisture arrives,=20
leading to precipitation falling into the frigid air-mass and=20
supporting heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain totals from the=20
southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic.=20

Saturday night (tonight) into Sunday is when this event truly=20
starts to peak in expansiveness and magnitude with wintry=20
precipitation continuously spanning from New Mexico to the=20
Northeast. Given the event is now well within the short range and=20
the synoptic pattern is locked into place, uncertainty now mostly=20
lies within the thermodynamics and both the depth as well as=20
latitudinal reach of the mid-level warm nose. Depending on which=20
CAM or global guidance you look at, this warm nose still has about=20
100 miles of uncertainty. This uncertainty is most notable where=20
WAA is strongest, throughout the Mid-Atlantic and into the=20
Northeast Saturday night into Sunday. Here, the NAM3k and RRFS=20
remain the farthest north and GFS/FV3 farthest south. WPC=20
preference tonight was in the middle, somewhere between the CMC-=20
Regional and NAM3k with how far north mixing would reach. What all=20
models do both agree on is by Sunday, a very pronounced area of=20
strong 700mb Q-vector convergence will unfold along the Mid-=20
Atlantic coast, prompting the development of a coastal low along a=20 strengthening coastal front. With the benefit of the 250mb jet=20
streak's divergent right- entrance region aloft and the=20
strengthening IVT (ECMWF SATs show >99.5 climatological percentile=20
values over the Southeast Sunday morning), an expansive=20
precipitation shield will span across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic,=20
and Northeast with excessive amounts of wintry precipitation=20
falling. While there remains some question on precipitation type,=20
NBM probabilities for >1.0" of QPF for the this event are greater=20
than 70% from the Southern Plains to southern New England, implying
a high amount of QPF that will be at this winter storm's disposal.


Heavy Snow/Sleet...

The latest forecast calls an astonishingly long swath (over 2,000=20
mile long in length) of >6" of snowfall that starts in the Sangre=20
De Cristo and Sacramento mountains of New Mexico all the way to=20
Downeast Maine. It is worth noting that the snowfall probabilities=20
being referenced will have snow and sleet and not include snowfall
already fallen prior to 12Z Saturday (this morning). Focusing on=20
the Plains first, WPC probabilities sport medium chances (50-70%%)
for snowfall >8" over the TX Panhandle, central OK, southern MO,
and northern AR. There is another impressive swath of high chance=20 probabilities (>70%) for >8" of snow from southern IL/IN and=20
north- central KY to eastern Maine. The Central Appalachians,=20
interior Northeast, and southern New England are likely to see the=20
most snowfall with high chances (>70%) for over a foot of snow in=20
these areas. In fact, WPC probabilities show low- to-moderate=20
chances (30-50%) for totals over 18" in the Catskills, Berkshires,=20
and eastern MA to the southern coast of ME. Farther south, the=20
inclusion of sleet from the LI sound southward along the I-95=20
corridor will likely cut into snowfall totals. Climatologically=20
speaking, areas west of I-95 where topography increases are most=20
likely to see more snow than sleet. This is evident in the >8" for=20
snow and sleet probabilities where they are high (>70% chances)=20
from northwest VA and north- central MD along Parr's Ridge to the=20
Lower Susquehanna Valley, but below 50% over southern NJ, the MD=20
eastern shore, and south of Fredericksburg, VA. Still, the WSO=20
shows >50% chances for a warning-level snowfall as far south as=20
central VA on east through the northern DelMarVa and into southern=20
NJ due to the strong 850-700mb FGEN Saturday night and Sunday=20
morning that fosters snowfall rates that could ranges between=20
1-2"/hr just north of the warm nose and changeover to sleet. This=20
FGEN is so strong in several CAMs as it lifts northward into the=20
Northeast on Sunday, mostly in part to the extreme thermal=20
gradient in place, that a few instances of thundersnow shouldn't=20
be ruled out. Even for areas that don't remain 100 percent snow,=20
the combination of snow, sleet, and inclusion of some freezing rain
still support significant travel disruptions in these southern=20
areas as well.=20

The WSSI shows widespread Major Impacts (considerable disruptions
to daily life: dangerous to impossible driving conditions,=20
widespread closures, and disruptions to infrastructure) from the TX
Panhandle on east to the Ozarks, through the OH Valley, and all the
way to New England. Every major market along the I-95 metropolitan
corridor (Washington D.C. to Boston and even as far north as
Portland, ME) are expecting major impacts due to snow. The=20
D.C/Baltimore area on north to Philly and NYC are likely to see=20
some inclusion of sleet, but it will still result in significant=20
impacts when accounting for heavy snowfall that is expected to
exceed warning criteria (5-6"). Coastal New England, including the
Boston metro region could also see winds increase to near-blizzard
conditions as wind gusts increase to 30-40 mph due to the
strengthening surface low and continued high snowfall rates. A=20
reminder that bitterly cold temperatures will follow in wake of=20
this storm Monday and into the middle of the week throughout the=20
eastern U.S.. The snow/sleet impacts will linger well into next=20
week with rounds of re-freezing that keeps surfaces icy and=20
dangerous to both drive and walk on for the foreseeable future.=20
Those in the path of this storm should follow advice of local
officials.


Freezing Rain...

The most lasting and dangerous impact will come as a result of=20
significant to locally catastrophic ice accumulations due to=20
prolonged periods of freezing rain. Just like the swath of >6" of=20
snowfall, the areal coverage of high chances (>50%) in WPC's ice=20 probabilities exceeding one-quarter inch of ice accumulation is=20
both impressive and alarming. From east-central TX to southern AR,=20
northern LA, northern MS, the TN Valley, northern GA, the southern=20 Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic, these regions are all=20
likely to experience anywhere from one-quarter to one-half inch of=20
ice. Widespread power outages and tree damage is likely in these=20
areas, especially from the Lower MS Valley, southern Appalachians,
central NC, and south-central VA, where there are also medium=20
chances (>50%) for ice accumulations over one-half inch.=20

It is parts of northwest AL, northern MS, south-central TN,
southeast AR, northern LA, far northern GA, the southern=20
Appalachians, and the NC Piedmont that are of greatest concern. WPC probabilities show low- to- moderate chances (20-40%) for ice=20
accumulations over 1 inch and higher probabilities (30-60%) across
parts of northern/northwestern MS. These areas are likely to=20
endure a crippling ice storm that will take days, if not weeks, of=20
clean up in addition to extended power outages while bitterly cold
temperatures linger into next week. This is demonstrated in a rare
Extreme Impact on the WSSI in parts of northern MS, northeast LA, and
the Southern Appalachians. The WSSI Extreme criteria references=20
the potential for "extensive and widespread closures, extremely=20
dangerous travel, and life- saving actions may be needed." Once=20
the freezing rain starts, dangerous travel will be common not only=20
during the event, but in the days in wake of the storm due to=20
prolonged sub- freezing temperatures that cause persistent re-=20
freezing on all untreated surfaces. The Key Messages for the=20
Extreme Cold are linked below (Key Message 1).

Farther east, freezing rain will reach southern VA, the DelMarVa
Peninsula, and as far north as the I-95 corridor from Washington
D.C. to Philadelphia. The southern VA Piedmont, including the=20
Richmond metro area, have medium chances (40-60%) for over one-=20
half inch of ice. The WSSI depicts Major Impacts from Richmond on=20
south along I-95 into NC. While most areas farther north towards=20
the Lower Delaware Valley, Washington D.C. into southern NJ should
largely remain sleet, it may transition to freezing rain for a=20
brief time by Sunday evening. WPC probabilities show low-to-=20
medium chances (30-60%) for over one- tench of an inch of ice=20
accumulations Sunday evening.


Key Messages for this system are linked below (Key Message 2)


Snell/Mullinax



...Extreme Cold & Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please=20
see current Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!_vSUFosL_fNE974CSds0-9HtYtuDLS1ao9damo__bVfhY= Taja5j4kl65r1blGHh-4akoePTGVmNbnc9HyIXEP5PejZs$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!_vSUFosL_fNE974CSds0-9HtYtuDLS1ao9damo__bVfhY= Taja5j4kl65r1blGHh-4akoePTGVmNbnc9HyIXELnzOa_o$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
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FOUS11 KWBC 242008
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 00Z Wed Jan 28 2026


...Ongoing major winter storm to bring crippling icing,=20
significant sleet, and heavy snow from the Southern Rockies/Plains=20
through the Southeast and up the Atlantic Coast into New England...

Meteorological Overview...
Forecast remains on track as a massive winter storm, set to=20
produce a swath of heavy snow, significant sleet, and dangerous ice accumulations, continues across the Southern Plains and begins to=20
expand into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon. By=20
tonight, wintry precipitation is expected to lift into the Mid-=20
Atlantic, and reach New England on Sunday. By the time this event=20
winds down late Monday, it will leave a trail of more than 2000=20
miles of wintry precipitation, in a nearly continuous path, from=20
New Mexico to Maine.

The driver of this event will be the interaction of a northern
stream trough diving out of Canada with a southern stream impulse
ejecting from near Baja California. As these features move eastward
through the weekend and interact into a more amplified and larger
trough over the eastern CONUS, impressive subtropical moisture=20
will spread east/northeast both from the Pacific and the Gulf, with
IVT exceeding the 97th climatological percentile according to
NAEFS. The rich moisture from the south will accompany strong=20
850-700mb WAA that results in classic over-runing along an area of=20
850-700mb FGEN stretching from atop the Southern Plains to the TN=20
VLY and southern Mid-Atlantic by tonight, reaching New England
Sunday, and then finally exiting the Atlantic Coast on Monday. In
addition to the classic overrunning/WAA precipitation, the
placement of the upper jet as it strengthens and pivots poleward,
will support intense bands of snowfall (cross sections suggest a
high threat for CSI and even potential CI within the strongest WAA)
which will support snowfall rates of 1-2+"/hr at times where it is
all snow, and intense sleet/freezing rain rates in mixed zones.

Farther to the east, an intense CAD (Cold Air Damming) signature=20
will develop east of the Appalachians, with intense dewpoint
depressions of 20-30F during precipitation overrunning. While it
will take a while to saturate this to result in precipitation at
the surface, the intensity of this high with cold isallobaric
drainage aided both by mid-level confluence to the north and
precipitation falling into this wedge will enhance the CAD and
result in long duration mixed precipitation as the WAA pushes a
warm nose aloft (generally 800-700mb). This will support heavy
icing and sleet lifting northward into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday,
and potentially as far as the south coast of New England as well.

With intense IVT pushing PWs to above the 99th percentile, there
will be plentiful moisture to work with everywhere from Texas
through New England. This will support heavy precipitation
accumulations regardless of p-type, so substantial impacts are
expected for a large swath of the nation. The heaviest snow is
expected from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast (more outlined
below), but an impressive jet-forced band of snow is also likely
from the Texas Panhandle through the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Farther south, crippling icing is expected for parts of
AR/LA/MS/TN, as well as the Carolinas, with exceptional sleet
accumulations of several inches progged in between the snow and ice
from Arkansas through Kentucky, and then for portions of the Mid-
Atlantic as well.\


Heavy Snow/Sleet...
Snow will be winding down across the Southern Plains after 00Z=20
this evening (the start of the forecast period) but remain across=20
NM and of course farther east into AR/MO. This still supports an=20 astonishingly long swath of >6" of snowfall from NM to ME.=20

=46rom the Southern Plains through the Ohio Valley, 72-hr WPC
probabilities (so the entire forecast period although snowfall
should generally be a 24-hr period, a heavy band of snowfall on the
NW side of the low and within the strengthening jet streak will
support 1+"/hr snowfall as reflected by the WPC prototype snowband
tool. With this band likely translating along its long axis, heavy
snowfall will have a temporal extent sufficient for more than 8
inches (30-50% chance from the TX Panhandle through SW MO,
increasing to 90%+ in the Ohio Valley where more than 12 inches is
also likely (50-70% chance) before snow wanes from SW to NE on
Sunday. Locally 15+ inches is possible across southern OH.=20

The heaviest snow is likely from Pennsylvania through New England
where p-type changes are not likely. This is also where the longest
duration of heavy snowfall within both WAA banded structures and
then potentially a more pivoting/translating band will develop as
secondary low pressure skirts off the Mid-Atlantic coast and just
inside the Benchmark (40N/70W). This will support a longer
duration of 1-2+"/hr snowfall, and WPC 72-hr probabilities reach
above 70% for 12+ inches, and locally as much as 2 feet is possible
(especially in the Worcester Hills, Berkshires, and Catskills, as
well north of Boston along the coastal front) where WPC
probabilities for 24" are 10-30%. However, this will be a
widespread 12+" snowfall event for most of southern and central New
England as well as PA.

In addition, with the intense WAA, a warm nose aloft (generally
800-700mb) will gradually create a warm nose above 0C shifting
through the Mid-Atlantic, with additional warm nose/sleet impacts
expected from AR and into TN and KY. The cold depth below this warm
nose appears to be in many places above the 75th-90th percentile
for freezing rain, indicating primary sleet for these areas as
p-type transition occurs, with significant sleet accumulations of multiple-inches expected. This will result in tremendous impacts to
travel in these areas.

The WSSI shows widespread Major Impacts (considerable disruptions
to daily life: dangerous to impossible driving conditions,=20
widespread closures, and disruptions to infrastructure) from the TX
Panhandle on east to the Ozarks, through the OH Valley, and all the
way to New England. Every major market along the I-95 metropolitan
corridor (Washington D.C. to Boston and even as far north as
Portland, ME) are expecting major impacts due to snow. The=20
D.C/Baltimore area on north to Philly and NYC are likely to see=20
some inclusion of sleet, but it will still result in significant=20
impacts when accounting for heavy snowfall that is expected to
exceed warning criteria (5-6"). A reminder that bitterly cold=20
temperatures will follow in wake of this storm through the middle=20
of next week throughout the eastern U.S., so snow/sleet impacts=20
will linger for many days even after precipitation ends.


Freezing Rain...
The most lasting impact will come as a result of significant to=20
locally catastrophic ice accumulations due to prolonged periods of=20
freezing rain. Just like the swath of >6" of snowfall, the areal=20
coverage of high chances (>50%) in WPC's ice probabilities=20
exceeding one-quarter inch of ice accumulation is expansive from=20
eastern TX through southern KY, with a secondary area east of the=20
Cumberland Gap from northern GA through southeast VA and including=20
much of the Carolinas. In these regions, at least 0.25" of ice is=20
expected to be widespread, with a more narrow corridor embedded=20
within of at least 0.5" (50-90%), highest in northern MS and=20
western TN, but some higher potential also exists in GA/SC where=20
locally more than 1 inch (a catastrophic accumulation for damage=20
and prolonged impacts of a week or more) is possible (10-30%=20
chance).

For LA, MS, TN, this ice accumulation is "additional" beyond what
will occur before 00Z (6pm CST), so local amounts above 1" are
actually expected to be more widespread than the updated
probabilities suggest. This produces a 20-40% chance of Extreme
impacts (extensive and widespread disruptions to infrastructure)
and these impacts could linger for a week or more where icing is
most significant. With very cold weather in place, this will become
a life-threatening situation, with potentially impossible travel
due to downed trees and power lines.


Key Messages for this system are linked below (Key Message 2).
Key messages for the widespread extreme cold are linked below as
well (Key Message 1).


...Great Lakes...
Day 3...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the east, but an embedded
shortwave within this trough will dig out of Alberta Monday night
and then cross the Great Lakes from northwest to southeast during
Tuesday. This will enhance CAA, leading to another round of lake
effect snow (LES), although the duration and intensity of this
event should be modest overall, some moderate accumulations are
still expected beginning D3 /00Z Tuesday to 00Z Wednesday/ and
lingering beyond this forecast period. LES from Lake Erie should be
minimal as that lake is now ice covered according to GLERL, but
elsewhere, ***WPC probs...heaviest***


Snell/Weiss


...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5yyp-eYgnqjdhXbnMGZ5F6MbfMH3V2jDjKFhtuPp72HzG= v1utrZAGBCuWMZw740nbStEiOYlG4pGhUeyanMrSk83qWE$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5yyp-eYgnqjdhXbnMGZ5F6MbfMH3V2jDjKFhtuPp72HzG= v1utrZAGBCuWMZw740nbStEiOYlG4pGhUeyanMrxvhmuX8$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 242013
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 00Z Wed Jan 28 2026


...Ongoing major winter storm to bring crippling icing,=20
significant sleet, and heavy snow from the Southern Rockies/Plains=20
through the Southeast and up the Atlantic Coast into New England...

Meteorological Overview...
Forecast remains on track as a massive winter storm, set to=20
produce a swath of heavy snow, significant sleet, and dangerous ice accumulations, continues across the Southern Plains and begins to=20
expand into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon. By=20
tonight, wintry precipitation is expected to lift into the Mid-=20
Atlantic, and reach New England on Sunday. By the time this event=20
winds down late Monday, it will leave a trail of more than 2000=20
miles of wintry precipitation, in a nearly continuous path, from=20
New Mexico to Maine.

The driver of this event will be the interaction of a northern
stream trough diving out of Canada with a southern stream impulse
ejecting from near Baja California. As these features move eastward
through the weekend and interact into a more amplified and larger
trough over the eastern CONUS, impressive subtropical moisture=20
will spread east/northeast both from the Pacific and the Gulf, with
IVT exceeding the 97th climatological percentile according to
NAEFS. The rich moisture from the south will accompany strong=20
850-700mb WAA that results in classic over-runing along an area of=20
850-700mb FGEN stretching from atop the Southern Plains to the TN=20
VLY and southern Mid-Atlantic by tonight, reaching New England
Sunday, and then finally exiting the Atlantic Coast on Monday. In
addition to the classic overrunning/WAA precipitation, the
placement of the upper jet as it strengthens and pivots poleward,
will support intense bands of snowfall (cross sections suggest a
high threat for CSI and even potential CI within the strongest WAA)
which will support snowfall rates of 1-2+"/hr at times where it is
all snow, and intense sleet/freezing rain rates in mixed zones.

Farther to the east, an intense CAD (Cold Air Damming) signature=20
will develop east of the Appalachians, with intense dewpoint
depressions of 20-30F during precipitation overrunning. While it
will take a while to saturate this to result in precipitation at
the surface, the intensity of this high with cold isallobaric
drainage aided both by mid-level confluence to the north and
precipitation falling into this wedge will enhance the CAD and
result in long duration mixed precipitation as the WAA pushes a
warm nose aloft (generally 800-700mb). This will support heavy
icing and sleet lifting northward into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday,
and potentially as far as the south coast of New England as well.

With intense IVT pushing PWs to above the 99th percentile, there
will be plentiful moisture to work with everywhere from Texas
through New England. This will support heavy precipitation
accumulations regardless of p-type, so substantial impacts are
expected for a large swath of the nation. The heaviest snow is
expected from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast (more outlined
below), but an impressive jet-forced band of snow is also likely
from the Texas Panhandle through the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Farther south, crippling icing is expected for parts of
AR/LA/MS/TN, as well as the Carolinas, with exceptional sleet
accumulations of several inches progged in between the snow and ice
from Arkansas through Kentucky, and then for portions of the Mid-
Atlantic as well.\


Heavy Snow/Sleet...
Snow will be winding down across the Southern Plains after 00Z=20
this evening (the start of the forecast period) but remain across=20
NM and of course farther east into AR/MO. This still supports an=20 astonishingly long swath of >6" of snowfall from NM to ME.=20

=46rom the Southern Plains through the Ohio Valley, 72-hr WPC
probabilities (so the entire forecast period although snowfall
should generally be a 24-hr period, a heavy band of snowfall on the
NW side of the low and within the strengthening jet streak will
support 1+"/hr snowfall as reflected by the WPC prototype snowband
tool. With this band likely translating along its long axis, heavy
snowfall will have a temporal extent sufficient for more than 8
inches (30-50% chance from the TX Panhandle through SW MO,
increasing to 90%+ in the Ohio Valley where more than 12 inches is
also likely (50-70% chance) before snow wanes from SW to NE on
Sunday. Locally 15+ inches is possible across southern OH.=20

The heaviest snow is likely from Pennsylvania through New England
where p-type changes are not likely. This is also where the longest
duration of heavy snowfall within both WAA banded structures and
then potentially a more pivoting/translating band will develop as
secondary low pressure skirts off the Mid-Atlantic coast and just
inside the Benchmark (40N/70W). This will support a longer
duration of 1-2+"/hr snowfall, and WPC 72-hr probabilities reach
above 70% for 12+ inches, and locally as much as 2 feet is possible
(especially in the Worcester Hills, Berkshires, and Catskills, as
well north of Boston along the coastal front) where WPC
probabilities for 24" are 10-30%. However, this will be a
widespread 12+" snowfall event for most of southern and central New
England as well as PA.

In addition, with the intense WAA, a warm nose aloft (generally
800-700mb) will gradually create a warm nose above 0C shifting
through the Mid-Atlantic, with additional warm nose/sleet impacts
expected from AR and into TN and KY. The cold depth below this warm
nose appears to be in many places above the 75th-90th percentile
for freezing rain, indicating primary sleet for these areas as
p-type transition occurs, with significant sleet accumulations of multiple-inches expected. This will result in tremendous impacts to
travel in these areas.

The WSSI shows widespread Major Impacts (considerable disruptions
to daily life: dangerous to impossible driving conditions,=20
widespread closures, and disruptions to infrastructure) from the TX
Panhandle on east to the Ozarks, through the OH Valley, and all the
way to New England. Every major market along the I-95 metropolitan
corridor (Washington D.C. to Boston and even as far north as
Portland, ME) are expecting major impacts due to snow. The=20
D.C/Baltimore area on north to Philly and NYC are likely to see=20
some inclusion of sleet, but it will still result in significant=20
impacts when accounting for heavy snowfall that is expected to
exceed warning criteria (5-6"). A reminder that bitterly cold=20
temperatures will follow in wake of this storm through the middle=20
of next week throughout the eastern U.S., so snow/sleet impacts=20
will linger for many days even after precipitation ends.


Freezing Rain...
The most lasting impact will come as a result of significant to=20
locally catastrophic ice accumulations due to prolonged periods of=20
freezing rain. Just like the swath of >6" of snowfall, the areal=20
coverage of high chances (>50%) in WPC's ice probabilities=20
exceeding one-quarter inch of ice accumulation is expansive from=20
eastern TX through southern KY, with a secondary area east of the=20
Cumberland Gap from northern GA through southeast VA and including=20
much of the Carolinas. In these regions, at least 0.25" of ice is=20
expected to be widespread, with a more narrow corridor embedded=20
within of at least 0.5" (50-90%), highest in northern MS and=20
western TN, but some higher potential also exists in GA/SC where=20
locally more than 1 inch (a catastrophic accumulation for damage=20
and prolonged impacts of a week or more) is possible (10-30%=20
chance).

For LA, MS, TN, this ice accumulation is "additional" beyond what
will occur before 00Z (6pm CST), so local amounts above 1" are
actually expected to be more widespread than the updated
probabilities suggest. This produces a 20-40% chance of Extreme
impacts (extensive and widespread disruptions to infrastructure)
and these impacts could linger for a week or more where icing is
most significant. With very cold weather in place, this will become
a life-threatening situation, with potentially impossible travel
due to downed trees and power lines.


Key Messages for this system are linked below (Key Message 2).
Key messages for the widespread extreme cold are linked below as
well (Key Message 1).


...Great Lakes...
Day 3...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the east, but an embedded
shortwave within this trough will dig out of Alberta Monday night
and then cross the Great Lakes from northwest to southeast during
Tuesday. This will enhance CAA, leading to another round of lake
effect snow (LES), although the duration and intensity of this
event should be modest overall, some moderate accumulations are
still expected beginning D3 /00Z Tuesday to 00Z Wednesday/ and
lingering beyond this forecast period. LES from Lake Erie should be
minimal as that lake is now ice covered according to GLERL, but
elsewhere, WPC probabilities are moderate for 4+ inches near the
Tug Hill Plateau, and moderate (10-50%)for 2+ inches along the=20
western shore of the L.P. of MI as well as parts of the U.P.


Snell/Weiss



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5W-O6S2TsavdXtQOUAK8oUfK4CWv9hDLB6maEn-RBEC8z= dxGx2_1hRti8HNuSE65ZONdrM6PSUgE9zjorHLbn-2g7N0$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5W-O6S2TsavdXtQOUAK8oUfK4CWv9hDLB6maEn-RBEC8z= dxGx2_1hRti8HNuSE65ZONdrM6PSUgE9zjorHLbAtBCRDQ$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 250741
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026


...Ongoing major winter storm to bring crippling icing,=20
significant sleet, and heavy snow from the Southern Rockies/Plains=20
through the Southeast and up the Atlantic Coast into New England...

Meteorological Overview...
Forecast remains on track as a massive winter storm is underway
across a significant portion of the country, currently extending=20
from the southern Rockies to the Mid-Atlantic early this morning.
By the start of the forecast period (12z Sun), widespread moderate
to heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected to span from=20
New Mexico to New York and continue to primarily impact regions=20
from the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and Mid-Atlantic to New England
through the overnight hours tonight. This event is forecast to=20
gradually wane across New England and the Interior Northeast on=20
Monday.

The driver of this winter storm is the interaction of a northern=20
stream trough diving out of the north-central U.S. this morning
along with a few southern stream impulses ejecting from the
southern Rockies and Plains. As these features accelerate eastward
today and interact into a more amplified and larger trough over=20
the central CONUS tonight, impressive subtropical moisture will
continue spreading east/northeast both from the Pacific and the=20
Gulf, with IVT exceeding the 97.5th climatological percentile=20
according to NAEFS. The rich moisture from the south will accompany
strong 850-700mb WAA that results in classic over- running along=20
an area of 850-700mb FGEN stretching from atop the Mid-MS and OH/TN
VLY to the Mid- Atlantic this morning, reaching New England this=20
evening and then finally exiting the Atlantic Coast on Monday. In=20
addition to the classic overrunning/WAA precipitation, the=20
placement of the upper jet as it strengthens and pivots poleward,=20
will support intense bands of snowfall (cross sections suggest a=20
high threat for CSI and even potential CI within the strongest WAA)
which will support snowfall rates of 1-2+"/hr at times where it is
all snow, and intense sleet/freezing rain rates in mixed zones.

Farther to the east, the intense CAD (Cold Air Damming) signature=20=20
east of the Appalachians will only slightly retreat through
tonight. With rapid warming aloft due to increasing southerly 850mb
winds over 50 kts and subfreezing temperatures remaining in the=20
low- levels, sleet is expected to be as far north as southern MD by
12z this morning and continuing marching northward through the day
as far as the southern New England coastline. This will cut down on
snowfall totals along I-95 from Washington D.C. to NYC, and will
also increase the potential for ptype to turn towards dangerous
freezing rain by late this afternoon.

With intense IVT pushing PWs to above the 99th percentile, there
will be plentiful moisture to work with everywhere from the OH VLY
through New England. This will support heavy precipitation=20
accumulations regardless of p-type, so substantial impacts are=20
expected for a large swath of the nation. The heaviest snow is=20
expected from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast (more outlined=20
below). Farther south, crippling icing is expected for parts of=20
AR/LA/MS/TN early today, as well as the Carolinas and Virginia
through tonight, with exceptional sleet accumulations of several=20
inches progged in between the snow and ice from Arkansas through=20
Kentucky, and then for portions of the Mid- Atlantic as well.


Heavy Snow/Sleet...
Snow will be winding down across the Southern Plains and Mid-MS VLY
by 12z this morning, but continues just east through the OH VLY. This
still supports an long swath of >6" of snowfall from IN to ME and
an increasing potential for >18" across the Interior Northeast and
New England.

48-hr WPC probabilities (most snow occurring within the first=20
24-hr period), are high (>70%) for an additional 8"+ from central=20
OH through central ME and most of New England. Probabilities for=20
18"+ have increased and are 50-80% across Upstate NY through much=20
of New England as far north as central VT/NH. A heavy band of=20
snowfall on the NW side of the low and within the strengthening jet
streak will support 1+"/hr snowfall across the Ohio Valley through
this afternoon as reflected by the WPC prototype snowband tool.=20
With this band likely translating along its long axis, heavy=20
snowfall will have a temporal extent sufficient for more than 8=20
inches. Locally 15+ inches is possible across southern OH.=20

The heaviest snow from this event is likely across New England and
the Interior Northeast where p-type changes are not likely. This=20
is also where the longest duration of heavy snowfall within both=20
WAA banded structures and then potentially a more=20
pivoting/laterally translating band will develop as secondary low=20
pressure skirts off the Mid- Atlantic coast and just inside the=20
Benchmark (40N/70W). This will support a longer duration of=20
2+"/hr snowfall, and WPC 48-hr probabilities reach above 90% for=20
12+ inches, and locally as much as 2 feet is possible (especially=20
in the Worcester Hills, Berkshires, and Catskills, as well north of
Boston along the coastal front) where WPC probabilities for 24"=20
are 20-40%. WPC's Snowband Probability Tracker (SPT) using the 00z
HREF is very impressive for 1-2"+/hr rates around 18Z near=20
northern NJ and eventually across New England beginning around 21Z
and lasting across eastern New England until 06Z tonight.=20
Regarding coverage of heavy snow, this will be a widespread 12"+=20
snowfall event for most of southern and central New England as well
as central/northern PA.

In addition, with the intense WAA, a warm nose aloft (generally
800-700mb) will gradually create a warm nose above 0C shifting
through the Mid-Atlantic. The cold depth below this warm nose=20
appears to be in many places above the 75th-90th percentile for=20
freezing rain, indicating primary sleet for these interior areas=20
as p-type transition occurs, with significant sleet accumulations=20
of multiple-inches expected. This will result in tremendous impacts
to travel in these areas.

The WSSI shows widespread Major Impacts (considerable disruptions
to daily life: dangerous to impossible driving conditions,=20
widespread closures, and disruptions to infrastructure) from the=20
OH VLY to New England. Every major market along the I-95=20
metropolitan corridor (Washington D.C. to Boston and even as far=20
north as Portland, ME) are expecting major impacts due to snow
amounts. The D.C/Baltimore area on north to Philly and NYC are=20
likely to see some inclusion of sleet and potentially some freezing
rain, but it will still result in significant impacts when=20
accounting for heavy snowfall that is expected to exceed warning=20
criteria (5-6"). Gusty winds increasing with the developing=20
surface low off the Mid-Alantic coast may also lead to a brief=20
period of near-blizzard conditions across eastern New England,=20
including Boston, late tonight. A reminder that bitterly cold=20
temperatures will follow in wake of this storm through the middle=20
of next week throughout the eastern U.S., so snow/sleet impacts=20
will linger for many days even after precipitation ends.

Freezing Rain...
The most lasting impact will come as a result of significant to=20
locally catastrophic ice accumulations due to prolonged periods of=20
freezing rain. Just like the swath of >6" of snowfall, the areal=20
coverage of impactful freezing rain remains expansive across the=20
Mid- South, where the event concludes by midday today and a=20
secondary area east of the Cumberland Gap from northern GA through=20
central VA and southern MD, including much of the Carolinas. In=20
these regions, at least 0.25" of total ice is expected to be=20
widespread, with a more narrow corridor embedded within of at least
an additional 0.5" (30-60%), highest today across the NC Piedmont
into south-central VA. This amount of freezing rain can create
widespread power outages and tree damage, as well as treacherous to
impossible travel at times.

For LA, MS, TN, ice accumulation is "additional" beyond what will=20
occur before 12Z (6am CST), so local amounts above 1" are actually
expected to be much more widespread than the very low=20
probabilities suggest for solely today's precipitation. The=20
greatest additional icing after 12Z today is located across the=20
Mid- Atlantic, where up to 0.5" is possible. With very cold weather
in place, this will become a life- threatening situation where=20
freezing rain amounts are highest (including the Lower MS VLY and=20
Mid-South) with potentially impossible travel due to downed trees=20
and power lines.


Key Messages for this system are linked below (Key Message 2).
Key messages for the widespread extreme cold are linked below as
well (Key Message 1).


...Great Lakes...
Days 2-3...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the east, but an embedded
shortwave within this trough will dig out of Alberta Monday night
and then cross the Great Lakes from northwest to southeast during
Tuesday. This will enhance CAA, leading to another round of lake
effect snow (LES), although the duration and intensity of this
event should be modest overall, some moderate accumulations are
still expected beginning D2-3 and lingering beyond this forecast=20
period. LES from Lake Erie should be minimal as that lake is now=20
ice covered according to GLERL and should continue to see ice
thicken with very cold temperatures in place, but elsewhere, WPC=20 probabilities are high for 4+ inches near the Tug Hill Plateau.


Snell/Weiss




...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!9sseXzdxj0AGHqtE9PxBDvpaCHTgyf0kBlV0VQClBi97u= cbSjEzZJILpGM3a97dsD08_MPYg2KvCXzcmJFn55hXmNHY$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!9sseXzdxj0AGHqtE9PxBDvpaCHTgyf0kBlV0VQClBi97u= cbSjEzZJILpGM3a97dsD08_MPYg2KvCXzcmJFn5V8ppWtM$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 251820
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 00Z Thu Jan 29 2026


...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
Days 1-2...

The expansive winter storm will wind down across the Central
Plains and Mid-South today, but significant impacts will persist
across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast tonight and
Monday.

This morning, the GOES-E water vapor imagery tells the take, with
an impressive plume of moisture stretching from Texas into southern
Canada, with a clear baroclinic leaf expanding over the TN/OH
Valleys. The upper low is spinning over TX and this will lift
northward into the Ohio Valley today, while secondary low pressure
development occurs off the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. This
secondary low pressure will become dominant and strengthen as it
tracks south of New England, with the most significant winter
weather and impacts shifting into New England tonight and Monday.
The trailing upper trough will move across the Great Lakes Monday,
helping to drive an inverted trough back across New England even as
the primary low departs, and light although the heaviest snow
should end Monday night, light snow may persist in this area into
Tuesday morning.=20

This evolution will result in impressive additional snow amounts
(after 00Z this evening) from the higher terrain of WV/PA northeast
through Upstate NY and all of New England. The heaviest snowfall is
expected across Upstate NY and New England where WPC probabilities
indicate a high risk (>90%) for at least 8 inches, with 12-18"
possible (30-50% chance) for the Greens, Whites, and coastal SW=20
Maine/far northern MA thanks to a coastal front evolution. Snowfall
rates will be extreme at times, potentially reaching 2-3"/hr as=20
progged by the WPC prototype snowband tool due to strong WAA=20
overlapping fgen which may result in CSI/CI (and possible=20
thundersnow). The intense WAA in the 850-700mb will drive a warm=20
nose above 0C as far north as coastal CT/RI/Cape Cod, so some=20
transition to sleet is likely, but otherwise a very cold airmass=20
will allow SLRs to be above climo (but dropping during the event)=20
which will help that efficient snow growth. The DGZ is quite=20
elevated, so the best ascent will not cross-hatch into the snow=20
growth region in most areas, but nevertheless, robust moisture on=20
IVT exceeding the 90th percentile will wring out to this heavy=20
snow, and it is possible some 48-hr total snowfall will reach more=20
than 2 feet in parts of New England, with widespread 6-12" covering
most of the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and rest of the Northeast=20
before this event winds down.

Although most of the accumulation will occur by 12Z Monday, the
aforementioned inverted trough linking back to the upper low may
allow for wrap-around snowfall to linger much of Monday and into
Monday night adding a few more inches of cold fluffy snow to the
area, especially New England and Upstate NY. WSSI-P indicates
continues high probabilities (>80%) for major impacts, and the I-95
corridor between NYC and Portland, ME will be treacherous through
Monday.

Farther south, freezing rain will continue for parts of the Mid-
Atlantic, especially northern NC, southeast VA, and potentially
along the I-95 corridor as far north as NYC. While additional
freezing rain amounts are expected to be modest as precip begins to
wind down (WPC probabilities suggest a 50-70% chance of at least
0.1" of ice), this will be on top of prior icing to enhance impacts
including treacherous travel and power outages. With extremely cold temperatures likely after this storm persisting for many days, any
power outages will become a life-threatening situation for parts of
the Mid-Atlantic states.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the east, and multiple
embedded shortwaves will ride through this trough out of Canada,
each one acting to reinforce cold advection (CAA) across the Great
Lakes to support rounds of lake effect snow (LES). While GLERL
indicates that water temperatures are cooling, Lake Erie is
entirely ice covered, and with the very cold temperatures this week
continuing, additional ice cover is expected. However, there
should still be sufficient instability and moisture to support LES
each day through the forecast period. LES is not expected to be
extremely intense, although will be efficient downstream of Lake
Ontario towards the Tug Hill Plateau at times, and it is this area
that is expected to receive the heaviest LES. WPC probabilities for
all 3 days indicate a high chance (>70%) for at least 8 inches east
of Lake Ontario, with lower probabilities for 8+ inches (10-30%
chance) southeast of Lake Michigan and across the eastern U.P. on
the south shore of Lake Superior.

Weiss



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5X0xN7MdHtpiv0Oq5XxTtzmHSf-mjyyl5Z8e4q_9Z6UZb= c44QpuSi4xTywscDvjJby3zed3keoBg7ZLpxNDxroebvd4$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5X0xN7MdHtpiv0Oq5XxTtzmHSf-mjyyl5Z8e4q_9Z6UZb= c44QpuSi4xTywscDvjJby3zed3keoBg7ZLpxNDxHkG_Cm8$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS11 KWBC 260707
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 29 2026


...New England...
Day 1...

The major winter storm that swept over the Nation the last few
days will continue to gradually exit the Northeast today, with
lingering additional snowfall across parts of New England. By the
start of the forecast period (12z Mon), the primary surface low
will be sliding east into the open Atlantic and only provide for
some favorable ocean-enhanced snow from the south coast of ME to
eastern MA. Otherwise, mostly light to moderate snow will be
associated with a weakening 850mb low tracking across northern New
England. Additional snowfall amounts through tonight are expected
to range from 3-5", with the highest probabilities (50-80%) for
greater than 4" extending from the northern coast of MA to eastern
ME. Storm total snowfall amounts from Sunday through the D1 period
are expected to exceed 20" across parts of New England.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the east, and multiple
embedded shortwaves will ride through this trough out of Canada,
each one acting to reinforce cold advection (CAA) across the Great
Lakes to support rounds of lake effect snow (LES). While GLERL
indicates that water temperatures are cooling, Lake Erie is
entirely ice covered, and with the very cold temperatures this week
continuing, additional ice cover is expected. However, there
should still be sufficient instability and moisture to support LES
each day through the forecast period. LES is not expected to be
extremely intense, although will be efficient downstream of Lake
Ontario towards the Tug Hill Plateau at times, and it is this area
that is expected to receive the heaviest LES. WPC probabilities for
all 3 days indicate a high chance (>80%) for at least 12 inches
east of Lake Ontario, with lower probabilities for 8+ inches
(30-60% chance) east of Lake Michigan and across the eastern U.P.
on the south shore of Lake Superior.


Snell



$$

= = =
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FOUS11 KWBC 262022
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 00Z Fri Jan 30 2026


...New England...
Day 1...

The final bands of the major winter storm shift east from New
England this evening. A couple additional inches are possible after
00Z over much of Maine down through the Mass coast.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Broad cyclonic flow and trough passages persist across the Great
Lakes as low pressure over Hudson Bay shifts south over Ontario
through Thursday. These will produce rounds of lake effect snow=20
(LES) particularly starting Tuesday behind a notable upper trough
passage. According to GLERL, Lake Erie is essentially ice=20
covered, so available moisture will be limited there while Lakes=20
Superior and Ontario remain largely. Westerly flow allows Day 2/3=20
PWPF for >6" are over 50% in the Tug Hill and just Day 2 for the
eastern U.P. of Michigan.


...Cascades...
Days 2/3...

The next trough axis shunts the powerful ridge east Tuesday night
with precip over the WA Cascades then through Thursday. Snow levels
rise from 4000 to 5000ft over the WA Cascades Wednesday through
Thursday. PWPF for >6" is 40-70% above the snow level (above pass
level) by Thursday.


The probability for significant icing is less than 10 percent.



Jackson




...Extreme Cold Key Messages are linked below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!-0TZxpay_jM8Z4Q34rmMmud52o6t8jkHOE9b3VqfOemR-= ZzRDBrxLmQXLRJn74txeFUITeYsrY6M3nwWigr62iJQsj4$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 270733
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 30 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Broad cyclonic flow and trough passages persist across the Great
Lakes as low pressure over Hudson Bay shifts south over Ontario
through Thursday. These will produce rounds of lake effect snow=20
(LES) beginning today behind a notable upper trough passage. 850mb
temperatures will remain quite cold during this period, with
temperatures around -18 to -24C, and below the 10th climatological
percentile. According to GLERL, Lake Erie is essentially ice=20
covered, so available moisture will be limited there while Lakes=20
Superior and Ontario remain largely open. Westerly flow will
continue across the Lower Great Lakes through Thursday night, with
northerly flow more likely on Day 3 across the Upper Great Lakes,
This allows Days 1-3 PWPF for >8" over 50% in the Tug Hill and for
the eastern U.P. of Michigan. The heaviest snowfall is no doubt
most likely downwind of Lake Ontario and the Tug Hill, where 50-60% probabilities for >18" reach the shoreline of Oswego county.


...Cascades...
Days 2/3...

The next trough axis to near the Pacific Northwest shunts the=20
powerful western ridge eastward Tuesday night, with precip over=20
the WA Cascades then through Thursday. Snow levels rise from 4000=20
to 5000ft over the WA Cascades Wednesday through Thursday. PWPF for

6" is 40-70% above the snow level (above pass level) by Thursday.

The probability for significant icing is less than 10 percent.



Snell





...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key
Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8NunqgJMY9ONsq94cDZxgfNTy_qFZpb-PYrxM2rTB5EIS= h2M4WxUege40SO-B-z28uH25Ynjwag2vrjv-7YR7oHbKF4$=20



$$

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FOUS11 KWBC 271931
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 28 2026 - 00Z Sat Jan 31 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

The seemingly endless cyclonic flow that has kept the LES machine=20
cranking over snow belts of the Great Lakes looks to continue
through the remainder of the work-week. Frigid 850mb temperatures=20
will persist with temperatures around -18 to -24C, which are below
the 10th climatological percentile. According to GLERL, Lake Erie=20
is essentially ice covered, so available moisture will be limited=20
there while Lakes Superior and Ontario remain largely open. W-NWrly
low-level winds will continue through Wednesday before the approach
of a sharp 500mb shortwave pivots through and shifts winds more out
of the N-NNW by Thursday. Northerly flow continues Friday as high
pressure builds in over the Northern Plains. 72-hour WPC
probabilities depict high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >4"
over the northern tier of the Michigan U.P. and down wind of Lake=20
Ontario to the south of an over the Tug Hill. The area with the=20
best odds of seeing over a foot of snow over the next few days are=20
near the Oswego, NY area where WPC probabilities for over a foot of
snow are in the moderate range of probabilities (40-60%).=20


...Cascades & Olympics...
Days 1-3...

A series of storm systems tracking into the Gulf of Alaska will
direct rounds of moisture and WAA at western WA through the
remainder of the week. Strong upslope flow should support locally
heavy snowfall totals as low as 4,000ft, but most heavy snow will=20
reside in the more remote areas above 5,000ft. Snow levels rise=20
from 4000 to 5000ft over the WA Cascades Wednesday through=20
Thursday. By Friday, snow levels approach 6,000ft by Friday in
western WA. WPC probabilities for >4" is high (>70%) around Stevens
Pass, but lighter accumulations around Snoqualmie are anticipated
at this moment given the higher snow levels.

...Northern & Central Plains...
Days 2-3...

A weak Pacific shortwave trough tracking NW-SE will ride along a
nearby 850mb front to support periods of snow from the northern
High Plains on south in the the central High Plains. Snow is not
expected to be overly heavy, although the Black Hills through
orographic lifting may be able to see snowfall amounts surpass 6".
This is supported in WPC probabilities which show moderate-to-high
chances (50-70%) for >4" of snow in the Black Hills, and low
chances (10-30%) in their peaks for >8". Elsewhere, from eastern MT
on south and east through the Missouri River Valley, most snowfall accumulations are likely to range between 1-3". Some hazardous
travel is possible, especially where roads temperatures are at or
below freezing in wake of the recent extreme cold.


...Southern Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic...
Days 3-3.5...

...Confidence In Impactful Snowfall Increasing For the Southern=20
Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic...

To say there remains a large amount of model spread in the
potential winter storm beyond Day 3 would be an understatement. In
the past 24 hours, ensemble guidance have flipped camps to where
the GEFS are the snowier members, CMCE are more in the middle, and
the EC-EPS are trending less snowy. It is worth noting that AI=20
ensemble membership are not as snowy as the GEFS, but show a little
more snow than the EC-EPS, making this an interesting test in how=20
the AI ensemble membership performs.=20

Regarding the setup-- WPC Cluster Analysis shows this potential=20
winter storm comes down to several factors: 1) strength of the=20
emerging Great Lakes shortwave trough. 2) speed of the shortwave=20
trough. 3) tilt/amplitude of the shortwave trough as it tracks=20
east. 4) Confluence strength near Nova Scotia. They all work=20
together in an intricate dance that makes for difficulties in=20
modeling. A stronger/slower shortwave can buy time for confluence=20
over New England and Nova Scotia to weaken, giving the shortwave=20
more time to amplify, and allow for closer storm tracks to the=20
coast that bring heavy snow as far west as the I-95 corridor (some=20
GEFS members and some CMCE members). Where the shortwave is=20
stronger but progressive, heavier snowfall occurs but largely=20
closer to the coast and as far west as the NC Piedmont (CMCE=20
members, UK ensembles, split EC/GEFS members). If the shortwave=20
trough is more progressive and cannot separate itself from the=20
larger TPV to the east there is less amplification, it results in=20
a flatter and more positively/tilted shortwave trough, and thus the=20
storm remains largely out at sea (EPS, EC-AIFS ensembles, some=20
GEFS/CMCE members). It is worth noting that, while the EC-AIFS has=20
largely performed well inside of 5 days much of the winter season,=20
the EC-AIFS and ECMWF did suppress the track of the most recent=20
winter storm too much ~4-5 days out before correcting northward=20
inside of 72 hours out.

This setup is highly timing dependent; from the primary shortwave
trough currently east of Hudson Bay, to the interaction/spacing of
the 500mb cyclonic gyres in southeast Canada and south of Iceland
that promote the confluence ahead of the potential storm, to the=20
incoming Pacific shortwaves that track into western Canada and
adjust the strength/position of the western North America ridge.=20
There remain a host of embedded shortwaves that will work together=20
to create a complex storm evolution off the East Coast. Whatever=20
the current model solutions show beyond 72 hours out is unlikely to
be the final product. Expect additional model changes in the=20
coming days. If there is one thing that has increased in confidence
in the past 24 hours, it is the opportunity for coastal flooding=20
and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Please refer to our
"What We know, What We Don't Know" social media post for=20
additional information.

The one thing they do agree on is this upper trough tracks through
the OH Valley Friday afternoon with sufficient PVA and 850-500mb=20
mean layer moisture to support snow from central KY to the southern Appalachians through Friday evening. WPC probabilities do
show increasing chances for at least minor accumulations >2" over
KY and northeast TN, while there are low-chances (10-30%) for
snowfall totals >4" through early Saturday morning in the TN/NC Smokeys
and Blue Ridge of NC. Residents and those traveling to the=20
Carolinas on north up the East Coast will want to continue=20
following the forecasts from WPC and your local NWS WFO for the=20
latest regarding this potential winter storm.=20


The probability for significant icing is less than 10 percent.


Mullinax




...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key
Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!6VI14otitwAAstNrC60qAGwJSrOE6Zf0oLu0MtZRucHys= 6sfDSsnz6A0nRg5hdjsoJ-6sT4HYazaHiiRfGLVWtSFuMg$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS11 KWBC 272009
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 28 2026 - 00Z Sat Jan 31 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

The seemingly endless cyclonic flow that has kept the LES machine=20
cranking over snow belts of the Great Lakes looks to continue
through the remainder of the work-week. Frigid 850mb temperatures=20
will persist with temperatures around -18 to -24C, which are below
the 10th climatological percentile. According to GLERL, Lake Erie=20
is essentially ice covered, so available moisture will be limited=20
there while Lakes Superior and Ontario remain largely open. W-NWrly
low-level winds will continue through Wednesday before the approach
of a sharp 500mb shortwave pivots through and shifts winds more out
of the N-NNW by Thursday. Northerly flow continues Friday as high
pressure builds in over the Northern Plains. 72-hour WPC
probabilities depict high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >4"
over the northern tier of the Michigan U.P. and down wind of Lake=20
Ontario to the south of an over the Tug Hill. The area with the=20
best odds of seeing over a foot of snow over the next few days are=20
near the Oswego, NY area where WPC probabilities for over a foot of
snow are in the moderate range of probabilities (40-60%).=20


...Cascades & Olympics...
Days 1-3...

A series of storm systems tracking into the Gulf of Alaska will
direct rounds of moisture and WAA at western WA through the
remainder of the week. Strong upslope flow should support locally
heavy snowfall totals as low as 4,000ft, but most heavy snow will=20
reside in the more remote areas above 5,000ft. Snow levels rise=20
from 4000 to 5000ft over the WA Cascades Wednesday through=20
Thursday. By Friday, snow levels approach 6,000ft by Friday in
western WA. WPC probabilities for >4" is high (>70%) around Stevens
Pass, but lighter accumulations around Snoqualmie are anticipated
at this moment given the higher snow levels.

...Northern & Central Plains...
Days 2-3...

A weak Pacific shortwave trough tracking NW-SE will ride along a
nearby 850mb front to support periods of snow from the northern
High Plains on south in the the central High Plains. Snow is not
expected to be overly heavy, although the Black Hills through
orographic lifting may be able to see snowfall amounts surpass 6".
This is supported in WPC probabilities which show moderate-to-high
chances (50-70%) for >4" of snow in the Black Hills, and low
chances (10-30%) in their peaks for >8". Elsewhere, from eastern MT
on south and east through the Missouri River Valley, most snowfall accumulations are likely to range between 1-3". Some hazardous
travel is possible, especially where roads temperatures are at or
below freezing in wake of the recent extreme cold.


...Southern Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic...
Days 3-3.5...

...Confidence In Impactful Snowfall Increasing For the Southern=20
Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic...

To say there remains a large amount of model spread in the
potential winter storm beyond Day 3 would be an understatement. In
the past 24 hours, ensemble guidance have flipped camps to where
the GEFS are the snowier members, CMCE are more in the middle, and
the EC-EPS are trending less snowy. It is worth noting that AI=20
ensemble membership are not as snowy as the GEFS, but show a little
more snow than the EC-EPS, making this an interesting test in how=20
the AI ensemble membership performs.=20

Regarding the setup-- WPC Cluster Analysis shows this potential=20
winter storm comes down to several factors: 1) strength of the=20
emerging Great Lakes shortwave trough. 2) speed of the shortwave=20
trough. 3) tilt/amplitude of the shortwave trough as it tracks=20
east. 4) Confluence strength near Nova Scotia. They all work=20
together in an intricate dance that makes for difficulties in=20
modeling. A stronger/slower shortwave can buy time for confluence=20
over New England and Nova Scotia to weaken, giving the shortwave=20
more time to amplify, and allow for closer storm tracks to the=20
coast that bring heavy snow as far west as the I-95 corridor (some=20
GEFS members and some CMCE members). Where the shortwave is=20
stronger but progressive, heavier snowfall occurs but largely=20
closer to the coast and as far west as the NC Piedmont (CMCE=20
members, UK ensembles, split EC/GEFS members). If the shortwave=20
trough is more progressive and cannot separate itself from the=20
larger TPV to the east there is less amplification, it results in=20
a flatter and more positively/tilted shortwave trough, and thus the storm remains largely out at sea (EPS, EC-AIFS ensembles, some GEFS/CMCE
members). It is worth noting that, while the EC-AIFS has largely=20
performed well inside of 5 days much of the winter season, the EC-=20
AIFS and ECMWF did suppress the track of the most recent winter=20
storm too much ~4-5 days out before correcting northward inside of=20
72 hours out.

This setup is highly timing dependent; from the primary shortwave
trough currently east of Hudson Bay, to the interaction/spacing of
the 500mb cyclonic gyres in southeast Canada and south of Iceland
that promote the confluence ahead of the potential storm, to the=20
incoming Pacific shortwaves that track into western Canada and
adjust the strength/position of the western North America ridge.=20
There remain a host of embedded shortwaves that will work together=20
to create a complex storm evolution off the East Coast. Whatever=20
the current model solutions show beyond 72 hours out is unlikely to
be the final product. Expect additional model changes in the=20
coming days. If there is one thing that has increased in confidence
in the past 24 hours, it is the opportunity for coastal flooding=20
and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Please refer to our
"What We know, What We Don't Know" social media post for=20
additional information.

The one thing they do agree on is this upper trough tracks through
the OH Valley Friday afternoon with sufficient PVA and 850-500mb=20
mean layer moisture to support snow from central KY to the southern Appalachians through Friday evening. WPC probabilities do
show increasing chances for at least minor accumulations >2" over
KY and northeast TN, while there are low-chances (10-30%) for
snowfall totals >4" through early Saturday morning in the TN/NC
Smokeys and Blue Ridge of NC. Residents and those traveling to the
Carolinas on north up the East Coast will want to continue=20
following the forecasts from WPC and your local NWS WFO for the=20
latest regarding this potential winter storm.=20


The probability for significant icing is less than 10 percent.


Mullinax





...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!54SB-pOI55Au96P5L94fHwqMmZ5LkWpzYAasipw8QCoDB= HpKat7rnUR9CGCuvaNDYBiVEtFlpNZAFxNTxzAKGVc0XKY$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS11 KWBC 272012
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 28 2026 - 00Z Sat Jan 31 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

The seemingly endless cyclonic flow that has kept the LES machine=20
cranking over snow belts of the Great Lakes looks to continue
through the remainder of the work-week. Frigid 850mb temperatures=20
will persist with temperatures around -18 to -24C, which are below
the 10th climatological percentile. According to GLERL, Lake Erie=20
is essentially ice covered, so available moisture will be limited=20
there while Lakes Superior and Ontario remain largely open. W-NWrly
low-level winds will continue through Wednesday before the approach
of a sharp 500mb shortwave pivots through and shifts winds more out
of the N-NNW by Thursday. Northerly flow continues Friday as high
pressure builds in over the Northern Plains. 72-hour WPC
probabilities depict high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >4"
over the northern tier of the Michigan U.P. and down wind of Lake=20
Ontario to the south of an over the Tug Hill. The area with the=20
best odds of seeing over a foot of snow over the next few days are=20
near the Oswego, NY area where WPC probabilities for over a foot of
snow are in the moderate range of probabilities (40-60%).=20


...Cascades & Olympics...
Days 1-3...

A series of storm systems tracking into the Gulf of Alaska will
direct rounds of moisture and WAA at western WA through the
remainder of the week. Strong upslope flow should support locally
heavy snowfall totals as low as 4,000ft, but most heavy snow will=20
reside in the more remote areas above 5,000ft. Snow levels rise=20
from 4000 to 5000ft over the WA Cascades Wednesday through=20
Thursday. By Friday, snow levels approach 6,000ft by Friday in
western WA. WPC probabilities for >4" is high (>70%) around Stevens
Pass, but lighter accumulations around Snoqualmie are anticipated
at this moment given the higher snow levels.

...Northern & Central Plains...
Days 2-3...

A weak Pacific shortwave trough tracking NW-SE will ride along a
nearby 850mb front to support periods of snow from the northern
High Plains on south in the the central High Plains. Snow is not
expected to be overly heavy, although the Black Hills through
orographic lifting may be able to see snowfall amounts surpass 6".
This is supported in WPC probabilities which show moderate-to-high
chances (50-70%) for >4" of snow in the Black Hills, and low
chances (10-30%) in their peaks for >8". Elsewhere, from eastern MT
on south and east through the Missouri River Valley, most snowfall accumulations are likely to range between 1-3". Some hazardous
travel is possible, especially where roads temperatures are at or
below freezing in wake of the recent extreme cold.


...Southern Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic...
Days 3-3.5...

...Confidence In Impactful Snowfall Increasing For the Southern=20
Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic...

To say there remains a large amount of model spread in the
potential winter storm beyond Day 3 would be an understatement. In
the past 24 hours, ensemble guidance have flipped camps to where
the GEFS are the snowier members, CMCE are more in the middle, and
the EC-EPS are trending less snowy. It is worth noting that AI=20
ensemble membership are not as snowy as the GEFS, but show a little
more snow than the EC-EPS, making this an interesting test in how=20
the AI ensemble membership performs.=20

Regarding the setup-- WPC Cluster Analysis shows this potential=20
winter storm comes down to several factors: 1) strength of the=20
emerging Great Lakes shortwave trough. 2) speed of the shortwave=20
trough. 3) tilt/amplitude of the shortwave trough as it tracks=20
east. 4) Confluence strength near Nova Scotia. They all work=20
together in an intricate dance that makes for difficulties in=20
modeling. A stronger/slower shortwave can buy time for confluence=20
over New England and Nova Scotia to weaken, giving the shortwave=20
more time to amplify, and allow for closer storm tracks to the=20
coast that bring heavy snow as far west as the I-95 corridor (some=20
GEFS members and some CMCE members). Where the shortwave is=20
stronger but progressive, heavier snowfall occurs but largely=20
closer to the coast and as far west as the NC Piedmont (CMCE=20
members, UK ensembles, split EC/GEFS members). If the shortwave=20
trough is more progressive and cannot separate itself from the=20
larger TPV to the east there is less amplification, it results in=20
a flatter and more positively/tilted shortwave trough, and thus the
storm remains largely out at sea (EPS, EC-AIFS ensembles, some=20
GEFS/CMCE members). It is worth noting that, while the EC-AIFS has=20
largely performed well inside of 5 days much of the winter season,=20
the EC- AIFS and ECMWF did suppress the track of the most recent=20
winter storm too much ~4-5 days out before correcting northward=20
inside of 72 hours out.

This setup is highly timing dependent; from the primary shortwave
trough currently east of Hudson Bay, to the interaction/spacing of
the 500mb cyclonic gyres in southeast Canada and south of Iceland
that promote the confluence ahead of the potential storm, to the=20
incoming Pacific shortwaves that track into western Canada and
adjust the strength/position of the western North America ridge.=20
There remain a host of embedded shortwaves that will work together=20
to create a complex storm evolution off the East Coast. Whatever=20
the current model solutions show beyond 72 hours out is unlikely to
be the final product. Expect additional model changes in the=20
coming days. If there is one thing that has increased in confidence
in the past 24 hours, it is the opportunity for coastal flooding=20
and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Please refer to our
"What We know, What We Don't Know" social media post for=20
additional information.

The one thing they do agree on is this upper trough tracks through
the OH Valley Friday afternoon with sufficient PVA and 850-500mb=20
mean layer moisture to support snow from central KY to the southern Appalachians through Friday evening. WPC probabilities do
show increasing chances for at least minor accumulations >2" over
KY and northeast TN, while there are low-chances (10-30%) for
snowfall totals >4" through early Saturday morning in the TN/NC
Smokeys and Blue Ridge of NC. Residents and those traveling to the
Carolinas on north up the East Coast will want to continue=20
following the forecasts from WPC and your local NWS WFO for the=20
latest regarding this potential winter storm.=20


The probability for significant icing is less than 10 percent.


Mullinax






...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!6n-iHJKs776ZdQQmter1T3bY9tYWwGaL_csVXzv1NZMbv= Z1KeGyQSUWbB1TKYcgb1-m6K7MWiSPxJKNPHtV9eyKYDFI$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS11 KWBC 280759
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 31 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

The seemingly endless cyclonic flow that has kept the LES machine=20
cranking over snow belts of the Great Lakes looks to continue
through the remainder of the work-week. Frigid 850mb temperatures=20
will persist with temperatures around -18 to -24C, which are below
the 10th climatological percentile. According to GLERL, Lake Erie=20
is essentially ice covered, so available moisture will be limited=20
there while Lakes Superior and Ontario remain largely open. W-NWrly
low-level winds will continue today before the approach of a sharp
500mb shortwave pivots through and shifts winds more out of the=20
N-NNW by Thursday. Northerly flow continues Friday as high pressure
builds in over the Northern Plains. This northerly flow supports
the most likely area of heavy snow on Day 3 to be down wind of Lake
Michigan, potentially into the Chicago metro. 72-hour WPC=20
probabilities depict high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >8"=20
over the eastern shores of Lake Superior in the Michigan U.P. and=20
down wind of Lake Ontario to the south of an over the Tug Hill. The
area with the best odds of seeing over a foot of additional snow=20
(most on Day 1) over the next few days are near the Oswego, NY area
where WPC probabilities for over a foot of snow are 10-20%. Day 3
probabilities down wind of Lake Michigan current depict moderate
probabilities 40-50% for at least 4" across the southwest shores of
Lake Michigan.


...Cascades & Olympics...
Days 1-3...

A series of storm systems tracking into the Gulf of Alaska will
direct rounds of moisture and WAA at western WA through the
remainder of the week. Strong upslope flow should support locally
heavy snowfall totals as low as 4,000ft, but most heavy snow will=20
reside in the more remote areas above 5,000ft. Snow levels rise=20
from 4000 to 5000ft over the WA Cascades Wednesday through=20
Thursday. By Friday, snow levels approach 6,000ft by Friday in
western WA. WPC probabilities for >4" is moderate (40-70%) around=20
Stevens Pass, but lighter accumulations around Snoqualmie are=20
anticipated at this moment given the higher snow levels.

...Northern & Central Plains...
Days 2-3...

A weak Pacific shortwave trough tracking NW-SE will ride along a
nearby 850mb front to support periods of snow from the northern
High Plains on south in the the central High Plains. Snow is not
expected to be overly heavy, although the Black Hills through
orographic lifting may be able to see snowfall amounts surpass 6".
This is supported in WPC probabilities which show moderate-to-high
chances (50-70%) for >4" of snow in the Black Hills, and low
chances (10-30%) in their peaks for >8". Elsewhere, from eastern MT
on south and east through the Missouri River Valley, most snowfall accumulations are likely to range between 1-3". Some hazardous
travel is possible, especially where roads temperatures are at or
below freezing in wake of the recent extreme cold.


...Southern Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic...
Days 3...

...Confidence In Impactful Snowfall Increasing For the Southern=20
Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic; Key Messages are linked at
the bottom of the discussion...

To say there remains a large amount of model spread in the
potential winter storm beyond Day 3 would be an understatement. In
the past 36-24 hours, ensemble guidance have flipped camps to=20
where the GEFS are the snowier members, CMCE are more in the=20
middle, and the EC-EPS are less snowy. It is worth noting that AI=20
ensemble membership are not as snowy as the GEFS, but show a little
more snow than the EC-EPS, making this an interesting test in how=20
the AI ensemble membership performs. However, within this overall
"cloud" of uncertainty, guidance is beginning to hone in on higher
chances for impactful snowfall across the Carolinas and southern
Virginia by the end of the Day 3 timeframe.

Regarding the setup-- WPC Cluster Analysis shows this potential=20
winter storm comes down to several factors: 1) strength of the=20
emerging Great Lakes shortwave trough. 2) speed of the shortwave=20
trough. 3) tilt/amplitude of the shortwave trough as it tracks=20
east. 4) Confluence strength near Nova Scotia. They all work=20
together in an intricate dance that makes for difficulties in=20
modeling. A stronger/slower shortwave can buy time for confluence=20
over New England and Nova Scotia to weaken, giving the shortwave=20
more time to amplify, and allow for closer storm tracks to the=20
coast that bring heavy snow as far west as the I-95 corridor (some=20
GEFS members and some CMCE members). Where the shortwave is=20
stronger but progressive, heavier snowfall occurs but largely=20
closer to the coast and as far west as the NC Piedmont (CMCE=20
members, UK ensembles, split EC/GEFS members). If the shortwave=20
trough is more progressive and cannot separate itself from the=20
larger TPV to the east there is less amplification, it results in=20
a flatter and more positively/tilted shortwave trough, and thus the
storm remains largely out at sea (EPS, EC-AIFS ensembles, some=20
GEFS/CMCE members). It is worth noting that, while the EC-AIFS has=20
largely performed well inside of 5 days much of the winter season,=20
the EC- AIFS and ECMWF did suppress the track of the most recent=20
winter storm too much ~4-5 days out before correcting northward=20
inside of 72 hours out.

In terms of storm analogs, this upper level setup and TPV=20
interaction does not appear like a common scenario to get a deep=20
upper low rapidly deepening near the Southeast/Mid- Atlantic. Most=20
analog matches seem to get towards the closed upper low in=20
different ways or suppress the system altogether leaving little in=20
terms of precipitation. However, the 12z Tuesday CIPS Analogs
(GFS-based) highlighted the significant winter storm of March 1980
as an interesting top match. This storm produced very heavy=20
snowfall across VA and eastern NC and can simply show the ceiling=20
this type of setup can have. Like what was previously mentioned,=20
other limited analogs are suppressed and show the very low floor=20
that is still possible. All ensemble systems GEFS/CMCE/EPS/EC-
AIFS/AIGEFS show this large spread as well.

Back to the current forecast. This setup is highly timing=20
dependent; from the primary shortwave trough currently east of=20
Hudson Bay, to the interaction/spacing of the 500mb cyclonic gyres=20
in southeast Canada and south of Iceland that promote the=20
confluence ahead of the potential storm, to the incoming Pacific=20
shortwaves that track into western Canada and adjust the=20
strength/position of the western North America ridge. There remain=20
a host of embedded shortwaves that will work together to create a=20
complex storm evolution off the East Coast. Whatever the current=20
model solutions show beyond 72 hours out is unlikely to be the=20
final product. Expect additional model changes in the coming days.=20
If there is an additional aspect to this storm that has increased=20
in confidence in the past 24 hours, it is the opportunity for=20
coastal flooding and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic coast.

The one thing they do agree on is this upper trough tracks through
the OH Valley Friday afternoon with sufficient PVA and 850-500mb=20
mean layer moisture to support snow from central KY to the southern Appalachians through Friday night. Then, the closing off of a 850mb
low seems plausible across the southern Appalachians Saturday=20
morning, which should help increase lift into the Carolina=20
Piedmont. WPC probabilities do show increasing chances for at least
minor accumulations >4" over eastern KY and northeast TN, while=20
there are low- chances (10-30%) for snowfall totals >4" through=20
early Saturday morning in the TN/NC Smokeys and Blue Ridge of NC.=20 Probabilities then begin to increase to 30-50% across central NC by
12z Saturday. Most snowfall associated with this system is=20
expected to occur after 12z Saturday, so be sure to check back for=20
the latest forecast as it enters the short range over the next few=20
days. Residents and those traveling to the Carolinas on north up=20
the East Coast will want to continue following the forecasts from=20
WPC and your local NWS WFO for the latest regarding this potential=20
winter storm.



The probability for significant icing is less than 10 percent.


Snell/Mullinax





...Extreme Cold (1) & Winter Storm (2) Key Messages are in effect.
Please see current Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!77Xu4C4_ejyNPuXJ8gEnnObVKlTXBwG2suWpfLuKOVzPG= BINbP5K5P9TIQ5cCqP2wLS3M1N8_NCpSzZOgD1PInZ4pUQ$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!77Xu4C4_ejyNPuXJ8gEnnObVKlTXBwG2suWpfLuKOVzPG= BINbP5K5P9TIQ5cCqP2wLS3M1N8_NCpSzZOgD1PtfsLqMU$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS11 KWBC 280807
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 31 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

The seemingly endless cyclonic flow that has kept the LES machine=20
cranking over snow belts of the Great Lakes looks to continue
through the remainder of the work-week. Frigid 850mb temperatures=20
will persist with temperatures around -18 to -24C, which are below
the 10th climatological percentile. According to GLERL, Lake Erie=20
is essentially ice covered, so available moisture will be limited=20
there while Lakes Superior and Ontario remain largely open. W-NWrly
low-level winds will continue today before the approach of a sharp
500mb shortwave pivots through and shifts winds more out of the=20
N-NNW by Thursday. Northerly flow continues Friday as high pressure
builds in over the Northern Plains. This northerly flow supports
the most likely area of heavy snow on Day 3 to be down wind of Lake
Michigan, potentially into the Chicago metro. 72-hour WPC=20
probabilities depict high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >8"=20
over the eastern shores of Lake Superior in the Michigan U.P. and=20
down wind of Lake Ontario to the south of an over the Tug Hill. The
area with the best odds of seeing over a foot of additional snow=20
(most on Day 1) over the next few days are near the Oswego, NY area
where WPC probabilities for over a foot of snow are 10-20%. Day 3
probabilities down wind of Lake Michigan current depict moderate
probabilities 40-50% for at least 4" across the southwest shores of
Lake Michigan.


...Cascades & Olympics...
Days 1-3...

A series of storm systems tracking into the Gulf of Alaska will
direct rounds of moisture and WAA at western WA through the
remainder of the week. Strong upslope flow should support locally
heavy snowfall totals as low as 4,000ft, but most heavy snow will=20
reside in the more remote areas above 5,000ft. Snow levels rise=20
from 4000 to 5000ft over the WA Cascades Wednesday through=20
Thursday. By Friday, snow levels approach 6,000ft by Friday in
western WA. WPC probabilities for >4" is moderate (40-70%) around=20
Stevens Pass, but lighter accumulations around Snoqualmie are=20
anticipated at this moment given the higher snow levels.

...Northern & Central Plains...
Days 2-3...

A weak Pacific shortwave trough tracking NW-SE will ride along a
nearby 850mb front to support periods of snow from the northern
High Plains on south in the the central High Plains. Snow is not
expected to be overly heavy, although the Black Hills through
orographic lifting may be able to see snowfall amounts surpass 6".
This is supported in WPC probabilities which show moderate-to-high
chances (50-70%) for >4" of snow in the Black Hills, and low
chances (10-30%) in their peaks for >8". Elsewhere, from eastern MT
on south and east through the Missouri River Valley, most snowfall accumulations are likely to range between 1-3". Some hazardous
travel is possible, especially where roads temperatures are at or
below freezing in wake of the recent extreme cold.


...Southern Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic...
Days 3...

...Confidence In Impactful Snowfall Increasing For the Southern=20
Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic; Key Messages are linked at
the bottom of the discussion...

To say there remains a large amount of model spread in the
potential winter storm beyond Day 3 would be an understatement. In
the past 36-24 hours, ensemble guidance have flipped camps to=20
where the GEFS are the snowier members, CMCE are more in the=20
middle, and the EC-EPS are less snowy. It is worth noting that AI=20
ensemble membership are not as snowy as the GEFS, but show a little
more snow than the EC-EPS, making this an interesting test in how=20
the AI ensemble membership performs. However, within this overall
"cloud" of uncertainty, guidance is beginning to hone in on higher
chances for impactful snowfall across the Carolinas and southern
Virginia by the end of the Day 3 timeframe.

Regarding the setup-- WPC Cluster Analysis shows this potential=20
winter storm comes down to several factors: 1) strength of the=20
emerging Great Lakes shortwave trough. 2) speed of the shortwave=20
trough. 3) tilt/amplitude of the shortwave trough as it tracks=20
east. 4) Confluence strength near Nova Scotia. They all work=20
together in an intricate dance that makes for difficulties in=20
modeling. A stronger/slower shortwave can buy time for confluence=20
over New England and Nova Scotia to weaken, giving the shortwave=20
more time to amplify, and allow for closer storm tracks to the=20
coast that bring heavy snow as far west as the I-95 corridor (some=20
GEFS members and some CMCE members). Where the shortwave is=20
stronger but progressive, heavier snowfall occurs but largely=20
closer to the coast and as far west as the NC Piedmont (CMCE=20
members, UK ensembles, split EC/GEFS members). If the shortwave=20
trough is more progressive and cannot separate itself from the=20
larger TPV to the east there is less amplification, it results in=20
a flatter and more positively/tilted shortwave trough, and thus the
storm remains largely out at sea (EPS, EC-AIFS ensembles, some=20
GEFS/CMCE members). It is worth noting that, while the EC-AIFS has=20
largely performed well inside of 5 days much of the winter season,=20
the EC- AIFS and ECMWF did suppress the track of the most recent=20
winter storm too much ~4-5 days out before correcting northward=20
inside of 72 hours out.

In terms of storm analogs, this upper level setup and TPV=20
interaction does not appear like a common scenario to get a deep=20
upper low rapidly strengthening near the Southeast/Mid- Atlantic.=20
Most analog matches seem to get towards the closed upper low in=20
different ways or suppress the system altogether leaving little in=20
terms of precipitation. However, the 12z Tuesday CIPS Analogs (GFS-
based) highlighted the significant winter storm of March 1980 as=20
an interesting top match. This storm produced very heavy snowfall=20
across VA and eastern NC and can simply show the ceiling this type=20
of setup can have. Like what was previously mentioned, other=20
limited analogs are suppressed and show the very low floor that is=20
still possible. All ensemble systems GEFS/CMCE/EPS/EC- AIFS/AIGEFS=20
show this large spread as well.

Back to the current forecast. This setup is highly timing=20
dependent; from the primary shortwave trough currently east of=20
Hudson Bay, to the interaction/spacing of the 500mb cyclonic gyres=20
in southeast Canada and south of Iceland that promote the=20
confluence ahead of the potential storm, to the incoming Pacific=20
shortwaves that track into western Canada and adjust the=20
strength/position of the western North America ridge. There remain=20
a host of embedded shortwaves that will work together to create a=20
complex storm evolution off the East Coast. Whatever the current=20
model solutions show beyond 72 hours out is unlikely to be the=20
final product. Expect additional model changes in the coming days.=20
If there is an additional aspect to this storm that has increased=20
in confidence in the past 24 hours, it is the opportunity for=20
coastal flooding and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic coast.

The one thing they do agree on is this upper trough tracks through
the OH Valley Friday afternoon with sufficient PVA and 850-500mb=20
mean layer moisture to support snow from central KY to the southern Appalachians through Friday night. Then, the closing off of a 850mb
low seems plausible across the southern Appalachians Saturday=20
morning, which should help increase lift into the Carolina=20
Piedmont. WPC probabilities do show increasing chances for at least
minor accumulations >4" over eastern KY and northeast TN, while=20
there are low- chances (10-30%) for snowfall totals >4" through=20
early Saturday morning in the TN/NC Smokeys and Blue Ridge of NC.=20 Probabilities then begin to increase to 30-50% across central NC by
12z Saturday. Most snowfall associated with this system is=20
expected to occur after 12z Saturday, so be sure to check back for=20
the latest forecast as it enters the short range over the next few=20
days. Residents and those traveling to the Carolinas on north up=20
the East Coast will want to continue following the forecasts from=20
WPC and your local NWS WFO for the latest regarding this potential=20
winter storm.



The probability for significant icing is less than 10 percent.


Snell/Mullinax





...Extreme Cold (1) & Winter Storm (2) Key Messages are in effect.
Please see current Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8TANDUoTZL_uMahppCEn7lOgTUVSMGtUDbz_RXsEfHhME= ATsMx_veotJcy8MV2KCSOFvGpr4l7xjG6CeUg9vKvyvDL8$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8TANDUoTZL_uMahppCEn7lOgTUVSMGtUDbz_RXsEfHhME= ATsMx_veotJcy8MV2KCSOFvGpr4l7xjG6CeUg9vTm6w4sc$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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FOUS11 KWBC 281947
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 29 2026 - 00Z Sun Feb 01 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

The seemingly endless cyclonic flow that has kept the LES machine=20
cranking over snow belts of the Great Lakes looks to continue
through the remainder of the work-week. Frigid 850mb temperatures=20
will persist with temperatures around -18 to -24C, which are below
the 10th climatological percentile. According to GLERL, Lake Erie=20
is effectively ice covered, so available moisture will be limited=20
there while Lakes Superior and Ontario remain largely open. W-NWrly
low-level winds will continue today before the approach of a sharp
500mb shortwave passes through and shifts winds more out of the=20
north by late Thursday. Northerly flow continues Friday with=20
shifting NNE flow possible into Saturday, which could place the=20
Chicagoland area under the presence of a Lake Michigan single-=20
banded LES streamer late Friday into Saturday. 72-hour WPC=20
probabilities depict high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >8"=20
over the eastern shores of Lake Superior in the Michigan U.P. and=20
down wind of Lake Ontario to the south of an over the Tug Hill. The
area with the best odds of seeing over a foot of additional snow=20
(most on Day 1) over the next few days are near the Oswego, NY area
where WPC probabilities for over a foot of snow are 10-20%. Day 3=20 probabilities down wind of Lake Michigan current depict moderate-=20
to-high chances (40-70%) for at least 4" along the southern shores
of Lake Michigan.


...Cascades & Olympics...
Days 1-3...

A series of storm systems tracking into the Gulf of Alaska will
direct rounds of moisture and WAA at western WA through the
remainder of the week. Strong upslope flow should support locally
heavy snowfall totals as low as 4,000ft, but most heavy snow will=20
reside in the more remote areas above 5,000ft. Snow levels rise=20
from 4000 to 5000ft over the WA Cascades Wednesday through=20
Thursday. By Friday, snow levels approach 6,000ft by Friday in
western WA. WPC probabilities for >4" is moderate (40-60%) around=20
Stevens Pass, but lighter accumulations around Snoqualmie are=20
anticipated at this moment given the higher snow levels.

...Northern & Central Plains...
Days 1-3...

A weak Pacific shortwave trough tracking NW-SE will ride along a
nearby 850mb front to support periods of snow from the northern
High Plains on south in the the central High Plains. Guidance is
even keying in on an area of 700mb FGEN over the Black Hills on
south into the Nebraska Sand Hills that could support moderate snow
bands Friday morning. Snow is not expected to be overly heavy,=20
although the Black Hills through orographic lifting and some=20
localized banding may be able to see snowfall amounts surpass 6".=20
This is supported in WPC probabilities which show moderate-to-high=20
chances (50-70%) for >4" of snow in the Black Hills, and low-to-=20
moderate chances (20-50%) in their peaks for >8". Elsewhere, from=20
eastern MT on south and east through the Missouri River Valley,=20
most snowfall accumulations are likely to range between 1-3". Even=20
some localized instances of freezing rain in the northern High=20
Plains on late Friday into Saturday given the favorable overrunning
from WAA at low-mid levels and sub-freezing surface temps. Some=20
hazardous travel is possible, especially where roads temperatures=20
are at or below freezing in wake of the recent extreme cold.


...Southern Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic...
Days 2.5-3.5...

...Confidence growing for a major winter storm & heavy snowfall=20
across the southern Mid-Atlantic...

WPC cluster analysis continues to show the primary driving factors
in the development of this impending winter storm are the
strength/speed/tilt of the approaching shortwave trough in the
Great Lakes and the spacing between the trough and the TPV over
southeast Canada. The meteorology is supportive of a significant
winter storm from the southern Appalachians and Carolinas on north
and east through the VA Tidewater. Just about all ensemble=20
guidance now show the shortwave trough over the OH Valley Friday=20
evening deepening into a powerful and highly anomalous closed low=20
that tracks into the southern Appalachians Saturday evening. By the
end of this forecast period (00Z Sun) the ECMWF 500mb heights are=20 approaching record low levels over the FL Panhandle for late Jan-=20
early Feb. As the 500mb low approaches, exceptional PVA and WAA=20
over the Mid-Atlantic coast will spawn low pressure along the=20
strengthening coastal front. This aligns well across the 12Z GFS=20
and 06Z ECMWF which show increasing 700mb Q-vector convergence near
the NC Outer Banks that fosters healthy mid-level ascent. This=20
aligns favorably beneath the diffluent left-exit region of a=20

100kt 500mb jet streak located a the base of the closed 500mb low.

As the 700mb low tracks towards the Cape Fear region Saturday=20
night, the axis of heaviest snowfall will reside on the 700mb low's
northern and western flank.

Where guidance still disagrees is the progression of the storm and
its proximity to the coast. The tilt of the 500mb trough and closed
low plays a key role in this, as it maximizes vertical ascent and=20
draws moisture farther north if the system takes on a negative=20
tilt. The EC-AIFS ensemble mean has been gradually decreasing QPF=20
largely because the negative tilt takes longer to occur and there=20
is less time for the developing 850mb low to tap into moisture off
the Gulf Stream. Most guidance holds off on a negative until=20
Sunday, which is why there is a "gap" in the snowfall from northern
VA on up I-95 to the NYC metro area, but heavy snow becomes=20
possible over southeast New England by Sunday thanks to the region=20
sticking out eastward into the Atlantic. Note the 12Z GEFS, 06Z=20
EPS, and 12Z EC-AIFS ensembles are still showing changes in its=20
mean inside of 72 hours, so exact amounts and the expanse of the=20
snow shield are still likely to change. In addition, unlike the=20
last winter storm, wind will have a more profound impact up and=20
down the Eastern Seaboard. The 00Z ECMWF EFI shows wind speeds that
are topping 0.8 from the MA Capes on south along the NC Coast.=20
These anomalous winds also align with climatologically significant=20
snowfall potential along the coasts, indicating the concern for=20
blizzard conditions in affected coastal areas.=20

CIPS Analogs (GFS-based) continue to suggest this storm's=20
potential ceiling could be exceptional, particularly in the=20
Carolinas. CIPS is keying in on several past major winter storms=20
that featured similar 300mb & 500mb evolutions to what the GFS is=20
showing, just 100-200 miles farther south and east from where those
events unfolded. While the CIPS analogs are analyzing the GFS, the
differences in the GFS versus the ECMWF are not all that different
when it comes to the meteorology involved: powerful closed upper=20
low, healthy upper-level divergence over a strengthening coastal=20
front, and tapping into Atlantic moisture revolving around the=20
closed 700mb low. In summary-- ensembles are beginning to identify
the floor of this winter storm (disruptive winter storm in the=20
southern Mid-Atlantic) but based on some of the analogs, there is a
potentially more significant-ceiling that could be achieved in the
Carolinas should guidance consolidate on a slower and more intense
winter storm. Given it is 72 hours out, there remains some caution
when it comes to expected snowfall totals.

WPC probabilities through Saturday night currently show moderate-
to-high chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >4" from the NC=20
Piedmont on east to eastern NC and southeast VA. It is worth noting
some higher end solutions are present with low-to-moderate chances
(30-50%) for snowfall totals >8" over central NC through 06Z Sunday.
The Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) is=20
depicting >50% chances for Moderate Impacts from the SC/GA border=20
on north and east to lower DelMarVa Peninsula. The Major Impacts=20
are >50% in the eastern Charlotte metro, the NC Piedmont right=20
along NC's I-95 corridor, and into southeast VA. These elevated
WSSI-P Major probabilities highlight the concern for a highly=20
impactful winter storm late Saturday and into Sunday for the=20
southern Mid-Atlantic with more disruptions to travel and=20
infrastructure anticipated. Residents and those traveling to the=20
Carolinas on north up the East Coast will want to continue=20
following the forecasts from WPC and your local NWS WFO for the=20
latest regarding this potential winter storm.


The probability for significant icing is less than 10 percent.


Mullinax




...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5Cj4msK-dv0Kb7_AGDSgu7ZDdEOXNYFYPw2QvpYtmFd6N= CNtmp24XMTtrscfs6fvs4sGCn1UXXix-0GDZBAeT4q-EBM$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5Cj4msK-dv0Kb7_AGDSgu7ZDdEOXNYFYPw2QvpYtmFd6N= CNtmp24XMTtrscfs6fvs4sGCn1UXXix-0GDZBAeMWJe7mA$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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