The Tariff Climbdown: Six Takeaways From Economists and Analysts
From
ltlee1@ltlee1@hotmail.com (ltlee1) to
soc.culture.china,alt.politics.usa, on Mon May 12 17:33:08 2025
From Newsgroup: soc.culture.china
"1. This is a bigger-than-expected U-turn.
Many market watchers were surprised by how much the U.S. and China
agreed to cut tariffs.
2. But the trade war is far from over.
The truce lasts 90 days. However, it could take longer to reach a full
trade agreement, Macquarie said, based on precedents in the first Trump administration.
..
3. The U.S. hasn't won concessions from Beijing yet. ...
4. The U.S. will still buy less Chinese stuff.
With an effective tariff rate of 40%, Chinese exports to the U.S. are
likely to fall by up to one-third, estimates Williams at Capital
Economics. While exports would have fallen far more with tariffs above
100%, this will still mark a dramatic decline in trade between the two
largest economies.
5. Fentanyl tariffs are now in focus.
Economists at Citi say tariffs tied to the U.S. overdose crisis are rCLlow-hanging fruitrCYrCoand Beijing has already signaled it is willing to allay TrumprCOs concerns.
However, since the U.S. has now slashed rCLreciprocalrCY tariffs, scrapping fentanyl tariffs would mean China would be treated much like any other
trading partner.
6. And the 'sell-America' trade is in question.
European stocks have outshone U.S. markets this year, partly because of
concern about the trade war's impact on U.S. companies. ..."
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