• (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2026, Round 17

    From =?UTF-8?B?TGzDqW8=?=@llb.moura@gmail.com to rec.sport.soccer on Fri Sep 5 01:01:33 2025
    From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

    Second-to-last round for this very much non-rocking Conmebol qualifying
    cycle, and one without any surprises really. Colombia, Uruguay and
    Paraguay clinch the last three automatic spots, as they were very likely
    to, and only the playoff spot is still up for grabs, which will fall in
    either Venezuela's or Bolivia's hands - and both play at home in the
    last round.

    Uruguay 3-0 Peru

    Easy enough win for Uruguay at Estadio Centen|irio, in Montevideo. Goals
    by Rodrigo Aguirre (13'), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (57') and Federico
    Vi|#as (79') clinched a WC spot which was basically in La Celeste's hands already. Peru needed a miracle to even try to reach the playoff spot,
    well, that is over now and they are officially out of contention.

    Colombia 3-0 Bolivia

    Colombia does its homework without much of a scare at Estadio
    Metropolitano de Barranquilla. James Rodr|!guez (30'), Jhon C||rdoba (73')
    and Juan Quintero (82') earned the hosts their first win after six games
    and booked their places on North America'2026. Bolivia, with one win and
    eight losses out of nine away games (still a better performance than Venezuela, Peru and Chile on that particular table), still has the
    playoff spot within reach.

    Paraguay 0-0 Ecuador

    Honours split even at Estadio Defensores del Chaco, in Asunci||n, as
    Paraguay and Ecuador play a not very rocking 0-0 draw that was enough to
    bring the hosts back to the World Cup after 15 years. Ecuador was
    already over the line.

    Argentina 3-0 Venezuela

    This game might have been the last official game of Lionel Messi for the national team in Argentinian territory, and he duly decided to deliver a performance up to the occasion. He scored twice (38' and 79'), and
    another goal by Lautaro Mart|!nez (75') finished off the hopeless
    Vinotinto at a packed Estadio Monumental de Nu|#ez, in Buenos Aires.
    Argentina has long qualified and ensured its spot at the top of the
    table, while Venezuela still hangs on to the playoff spot.

    Brasil 3-0 Chile

    The only truly meaningless game of the round, since Brasil had already clinched a spot and Chile is already out of contention, only playing to
    avoid last place. Brasil largely dominated affairs at Maracan|u, in Rio
    de Janeiro, and Estev|uo scored his first ever goal for Brasil in the
    37th minute. Paquet|i, now free from his betting-related problems with
    the English FA, returned to the team as well and, 40 seconds after being subbed in, finished a very nice move by Luiz Henrique for the 2-0, in
    the 71th minute. Luiz Henrique also made the play of the third goal, in
    the 75th minute, but the ball hit the bar and Bruno Guimar|ues pushed it
    over the line.


    Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd, (mi = media inglese)]

    1 Argentina 38 17 12 2 3 31-9 22+ (mi = +3)
    2 Brasil 28 17 8 4 5 24-16 8+ (mi = -7)
    3 Uruguay 27 17 7 6 4 22-12 10+ (mi = -8)
    4 Ecuador 26 17 7 8 2 13-5 8+ (mi = -4) (-3 points penalty)
    5 Colombia 25 17 6 7 4 22-15 7+ (mi =-10)
    6 Paraguay 25 17 6 7 4 13-10 3+ (mi =-10) ----------------------------- --------------------
    7 Venezuela 18 17 4 6 7 15-22 7- (mi =-15) ----------------------------- --------------------
    8 Bolivia 17 17 5 2 10 16-35 19- (mi =-16)
    9 Peru 12 17 2 6 9 6-20 14- (mi =-21)
    10 Chile 10 17 2 4 11 9-27 18- (mi =-23)


    Looking at the above table, how much more rocking things would have been
    in the old 32-team World Cup, with 4.5 spots for Conmebol? Maybe not
    that much, seeing as four of the five games of Round 18 would involve
    already eliminated teams, with Ecuador having drawn the short stick and
    having to face Argentina (although at home...). But still, things would
    have been wide open, with only one of the automatic spots already
    clinched and the ghost of 6th place haunting the five contestants over
    every game of the round. I know I sound like a broken record by now, but
    let's again thank FIFA for making the qualifying round a pointless
    exercise, and Conmebol for having picked a format with 90 games to weed
    out only three teams.

    (though, to be fair with Conmebol, I don't think it's possible to design
    a challenging and competitive qualifying round given the circumstances.)

    Next round to be played on September 9th. In brackets below, the results
    of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998
    (all the round robin ones so far):

    Ecuador - Argentina (1-1, 1-3, 1-1, 2-0, 2-0, 0-2, 2-0). Matchday 1: ARG
    1-0 ECU

    Mostly a friendly, given that the two sides are already through. Ecuador
    won't even bother to try to use the altitude against Argentina, holding
    this game at Estadio Monumental de Guayaquil instead. I figure they may
    want to finish on a high note, but then, so does Argentina? Up for
    grabs, I'd say, I'll call an 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Ecuador 0.35, draw
    0.35, Argentina 0.30).

    Peru - Paraguay (2-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 4-1, 2-0, 1-0). Matchday 1: PAR 0-0 PER

    Peru basically plays here to leave the last position in the hands of
    their beloved southern rivals, while Paraguay is already over the line.
    Not sure what to call here either: on one hand, even when Paraguay were
    on their golden generation, they always struggled in Lima. If I went a
    further four years back in the above score list, there appears a certain
    2-2 which kept Paraguay from qualifying to the interconfederational
    playoffs instead of Argentina, who on the same day suffered that famous
    0-5 walloping in the hands of Colombia. On the other hand, this Peruvian
    team is really that bad. I'll make it an uninteresting 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Peru 0.35, draw 0.35, Paraguay 0.30).

    Venezuela - Colombia (0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 2-2, 0-2). Matchday 1:
    COL 1-0 VEN

    I don't think Venezuela has ever been that close to... well, not
    qualifying to the Cup itself, but at least making the
    interconfederational playoffs! This is THE big game for them, and of
    course it had to be a derby. Colombia has nothing to play for, and I'm
    not sure how deep their rivalry goes, so I don't know if it'll be a
    factor. But the Vinotinto needs a win to be certain to make the
    playoffs. I hope they get it, so I'll call a close and tense 1-0 win for
    them at Estadio Monumental de Matur|!n (in soph-terms: Venezuela 0.40,
    draw 0.35, Colombia 0.25).

    Bolivia - Brasil (0-4, 0-0, n/a, 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, n/a). Matchday 1: BRA
    5-1 BOL

    Going a further four years back we find a 2-0 win that was Brasil's
    first ever WCQ loss. Though Brasil tends to struggle in the altitude and
    has nothing to play for, in the last two cycles, not even the altitude
    of La Paz was enough for Bolivia to put up a game (the 0-0 draw in 2017
    was due to Carlos Lampe putting out a world class performance to stop
    Brasil). The hosts, though, have a lot to play for this time, as they
    need a win to make it to the interconfederational playoffs: a draw would
    only be enough if Venezuela loses by 12 goals to Colombia, which I'd
    call a low probability event. On this cycle Bolivia still haven't lost
    at Estadio Municipal de El Alto (4 km above sea level), but the gulf
    between the two sides is immense... Well, up for grabs I guess, and
    Carlo Ancelotti's welcome to the South American altitude too, I'll call
    it a 1-1 draw, with all the edge to the hosts though (in soph-terms:
    Bolivia 0.50, draw 0.30, Brasil 0.20).

    Chile - Uruguay (0-2, 3-1, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0). Matchday 1: URU 3-1 CHI

    Another game where the only thing at stake is Chile trying to save some
    face in front of their fans and avoiding the last position. Uruguay is
    the much better side, but have nothing to play for. Again I have no idea
    what to predict, and again I'll go with an 1-1 draw (in soph-terms:
    Chile 0.30, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.35).


    Best regards,

    Ll|-o
    --- Synchronet 3.21a-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Mark@Pammiesheart@yahoo.co.uk to rec.sport.soccer on Sun Sep 7 17:52:15 2025
    From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

    Ll|-o wrote:

    Second-to-last round for this very much non-rocking Conmebol
    qualifying cycle, and one without any surprises really. Colombia,
    Uruguay and Paraguay clinch the last three automatic spots, as they
    were very likely to, and only the playoff spot is still up for grabs,
    which will fall in either Venezuela's or Bolivia's hands - and both
    play at home in the last round.

    Uruguay 3-0 Peru

    Easy enough win for Uruguay at Estadio Centen|irio, in Montevideo.
    Goals by Rodrigo Aguirre (13'), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (57') and
    Federico Vi|#as (79') clinched a WC spot which was basically in La
    Celeste's hands already. Peru needed a miracle to even try to reach
    the playoff spot, well, that is over now and they are officially out
    of contention.

    Colombia 3-0 Bolivia

    Colombia does its homework without much of a scare at Estadio
    Metropolitano de Barranquilla. James Rodr|!guez (30'), Jhon C||rdoba
    (73') and Juan Quintero (82') earned the hosts their first win after
    six games and booked their places on North America'2026. Bolivia,
    with one win and eight losses out of nine away games (still a better performance than Venezuela, Peru and Chile on that particular table),
    still has the playoff spot within reach.

    Paraguay 0-0 Ecuador

    Honours split even at Estadio Defensores del Chaco, in Asunci||n, as
    Paraguay and Ecuador play a not very rocking 0-0 draw that was enough
    to bring the hosts back to the World Cup after 15 years. Ecuador was
    already over the line.

    Argentina 3-0 Venezuela

    This game might have been the last official game of Lionel Messi for
    the national team in Argentinian territory, and he duly decided to
    deliver a performance up to the occasion. He scored twice (38' and
    79'), and another goal by Lautaro Mart|!nez (75') finished off the
    hopeless Vinotinto at a packed Estadio Monumental de Nu|#ez, in Buenos
    Aires. Argentina has long qualified and ensured its spot at the top
    of the table, while Venezuela still hangs on to the playoff spot.

    I read that the Argentinian FA were cashing in on the fact that it was
    likely to be Lionel Messi's last ever home match in the World Cup
    qualifiers and the cheapest tickets for this match were $100.

    Brasil 3-0 Chile

    The only truly meaningless game of the round, since Brasil had
    already clinched a spot and Chile is already out of contention, only
    playing to avoid last place. Brasil largely dominated affairs at
    Maracan|u, in Rio de Janeiro, and Estev|uo scored his first ever goal
    for Brasil in the 37th minute. Paquet|i, now free from his
    betting-related problems with the English FA, returned to the team as
    well and, 40 seconds after being subbed in, finished a very nice move
    by Luiz Henrique for the 2-0, in the 71th minute. Luiz Henrique also
    made the play of the third goal, in the 75th minute, but the ball hit
    the bar and Bruno Guimar|ues pushed it over the line.


    Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd, (mi = media inglese)]

    1 Argentina 38 17 12 2 3 31-9 22+ (mi = +3)
    2 Brasil 28 17 8 4 5 24-16 8+ (mi = -7)
    3 Uruguay 27 17 7 6 4 22-12 10+ (mi = -8)
    4 Ecuador 26 17 7 8 2 13-5 8+ (mi = -4) (-3 points
    penalty) 5 Colombia 25 17 6 7 4 22-15 7+ (mi =-10)
    6 Paraguay 25 17 6 7 4 13-10 3+ (mi =-10) ----------------------------- --------------------
    7 Venezuela 18 17 4 6 7 15-22 7- (mi =-15) ----------------------------- --------------------
    8 Bolivia 17 17 5 2 10 16-35 19- (mi =-16)
    9 Peru 12 17 2 6 9 6-20 14- (mi =-21)
    10 Chile 10 17 2 4 11 9-27 18- (mi =-23)


    Looking at the above table, how much more rocking things would have
    been in the old 32-team World Cup, with 4.5 spots for Conmebol? Maybe
    not that much, seeing as four of the five games of Round 18 would
    involve already eliminated teams, with Ecuador having drawn the short
    stick and having to face Argentina (although at home...). But still,
    things would have been wide open, with only one of the automatic
    spots already clinched and the ghost of 6th place haunting the five contestants over every game of the round. I know I sound like a
    broken record by now, but let's again thank FIFA for making the
    qualifying round a pointless exercise, and Conmebol for having picked
    a format with 90 games to weed out only three teams.

    (though, to be fair with Conmebol, I don't think it's possible to
    design a challenging and competitive qualifying round given the circumstances.)

    The best alternative would be 2 groups of 5 wouldn't it?, with the top
    3 qualifying and the 4th place teams playing each other for a place in
    the inter-confederation play-offs. I think all 10 teams playing each
    other is possibly slightly better though.

    Next round to be played on September 9th. In brackets below, the
    results of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin ones so far):

    Ecuador - Argentina (1-1, 1-3, 1-1, 2-0, 2-0, 0-2, 2-0). Matchday 1:
    ARG 1-0 ECU

    Mostly a friendly, given that the two sides are already through.
    Ecuador won't even bother to try to use the altitude against
    Argentina, holding this game at Estadio Monumental de Guayaquil
    instead. I figure they may want to finish on a high note, but then,
    so does Argentina? Up for grabs, I'd say, I'll call an 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Ecuador 0.35, draw 0.35, Argentina 0.30).

    I'll go for a 1-1 draw; no I won't, I say 1-2.

    Peru - Paraguay (2-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 4-1, 2-0, 1-0). Matchday 1: PAR
    0-0 PER

    Peru basically plays here to leave the last position in the hands of
    their beloved southern rivals, while Paraguay is already over the
    line. Not sure what to call here either: on one hand, even when
    Paraguay were on their golden generation, they always struggled in
    Lima. If I went a further four years back in the above score list,
    there appears a certain 2-2 which kept Paraguay from qualifying to
    the interconfederational playoffs instead of Argentina, who on the
    same day suffered that famous 0-5 walloping in the hands of Colombia.
    On the other hand, this Peruvian team is really that bad. I'll make
    it an uninteresting 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Peru 0.35, draw 0.35,
    Paraguay 0.30).

    1-1

    Venezuela - Colombia (0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 2-2, 0-2). Matchday 1:
    COL 1-0 VEN

    I don't think Venezuela has ever been that close to... well, not
    qualifying to the Cup itself, but at least making the
    interconfederational playoffs! This is THE big game for them, and of
    course it had to be a derby. Colombia has nothing to play for, and
    I'm not sure how deep their rivalry goes, so I don't know if it'll be
    a factor. But the Vinotinto needs a win to be certain to make the
    playoffs. I hope they get it, so I'll call a close and tense 1-0 win
    for them at Estadio Monumental de Matur|!n (in soph-terms: Venezuela
    0.40, draw 0.35, Colombia 0.25).

    1-0

    Bolivia - Brasil (0-4, 0-0, n/a, 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, n/a). Matchday 1: BRA
    5-1 BOL

    Going a further four years back we find a 2-0 win that was Brasil's
    first ever WCQ loss. Though Brasil tends to struggle in the altitude
    and has nothing to play for, in the last two cycles, not even the
    altitude of La Paz was enough for Bolivia to put up a game (the 0-0
    draw in 2017 was due to Carlos Lampe putting out a world class
    performance to stop Brasil). The hosts, though, have a lot to play
    for this time, as they need a win to make it to the
    interconfederational playoffs: a draw would only be enough if
    Venezuela loses by 12 goals to Colombia, which I'd call a low
    probability event. On this cycle Bolivia still haven't lost at
    Estadio Municipal de El Alto (4 km above sea level), but the gulf
    between the two sides is immense... Well, up for grabs I guess, and
    Carlo Ancelotti's welcome to the South American altitude too, I'll
    call it a 1-1 draw, with all the edge to the hosts though (in
    soph-terms: Bolivia 0.50, draw 0.30, Brasil 0.20).

    1-2 (I can't make all my predictions the same as Lleo's can I?)

    Chile - Uruguay (0-2, 3-1, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0). Matchday 1: URU
    3-1 CHI

    Another game where the only thing at stake is Chile trying to save
    some face in front of their fans and avoiding the last position.
    Uruguay is the much better side, but have nothing to play for. Again
    I have no idea what to predict, and again I'll go with an 1-1 draw
    (in soph-terms: Chile 0.30, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.35).

    0-3 (If Uruguay can beat Argentina 2-0 away, they can beat Chile 3-0.
    And yes Uruguay have nothing to play for this time but nor do Chile.)


    Best regards,

    Ll|-o

    --- Synchronet 3.21a-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From MH@MHnospam@ucalgary.ca to rec.sport.soccer on Sun Sep 7 14:19:32 2025
    From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

    On 2025-09-04 21:01, Ll|-o wrote:
    Second-to-last round for this very much non-rocking Conmebol qualifying cycle, and one without any surprises really. Colombia, Uruguay and
    Paraguay clinch the last three automatic spots, as they were very likely
    to, and only the playoff spot is still up for grabs, which will fall in either Venezuela's or Bolivia's hands - and both play at home in the
    last round.


    SNIP>

    Looking at the above table, how much more rocking things would have been
    in the old 32-team World Cup, with 4.5 spots for Conmebol? Maybe not
    that much, seeing as four of the five games of Round 18 would involve already eliminated teams, with Ecuador having drawn the short stick and having to face Argentina (although at home...). But still, things would
    have been wide open, with only one of the automatic spots already
    clinched and the ghost of 6th place haunting the five contestants over
    every game of the round. I know I sound like a broken record by now, but let's again thank FIFA for making the qualifying round a pointless
    exercise, and Conmebol for having picked a format with 90 games to weed
    out only three teams.

    (though, to be fair with Conmebol, I don't think it's possible to design
    a challenging and competitive qualifying round given the circumstances.)

    Has any thought ever been given to including Suriname and Guyana in
    CONMEBOL and thus increasing the pool to 12 teams? Two groups of six
    would make sense in that context.
    Suriname have been improving, but I don't think they would challenge for
    even a playoff spot yet. Guyana would struggle, but at least they would
    get more games against strong opposition. >
    Next round to be played on September 9th. In brackets below, the results
    of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998
    (all the round robin ones so far):


    --- Synchronet 3.21a-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From =?UTF-8?B?TGzDqW8=?=@llb.moura@gmail.com to rec.sport.soccer on Tue Sep 9 20:41:55 2025
    From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

    On 07/09/2025 18:19, MH wrote:
    On 2025-09-04 21:01, Ll|-o wrote:
    Looking at the above table, how much more rocking things would have
    been in the old 32-team World Cup, with 4.5 spots for Conmebol? Maybe
    not that much, seeing as four of the five games of Round 18 would
    involve already eliminated teams, with Ecuador having drawn the short
    stick and having to face Argentina (although at home...). But still,
    things would have been wide open, with only one of the automatic spots
    already clinched and the ghost of 6th place haunting the five
    contestants over every game of the round. I know I sound like a broken
    record by now, but let's again thank FIFA for making the qualifying
    round a pointless exercise, and Conmebol for having picked a format
    with 90 games to weed out only three teams.

    (though, to be fair with Conmebol, I don't think it's possible to
    design a challenging and competitive qualifying round given the
    circumstances.)

    Has any thought ever been given to including Suriname and Guyana in
    CONMEBOL and thus increasing the pool to 12 teams?-a Two groups of six
    would make sense in that context.
    Suriname have been improving, but I don't think they would challenge for even a playoff spot yet.-a Guyana would struggle, but at least they would get more games against strong opposition.

    I'm not aware of this ever been given serious consideration, and I'm not
    even sure Suriname or Guyana would go for it. Suriname is a founder
    member of Concacaf and, beyond that, both see themselves as mostly
    Caribbean countries, which makes every sense.

    The system you propose would wrap things up in 10 rounds (plus a playoff between the 4th placed sides, I guess, for a place in the
    intercontinental playoffs). Conmebol probably wouldn't go for it,
    because they'd lose the Brasil vs Argentina fixture, unless they cooked
    a way to put them on the same group (they've done that before, though in
    Copa America). But I agree that it would make sense.

    I've been thinking whether it's viable to bring together Concacaf and
    Conmebol spots and come up with some pan-American final round with all
    of them up for grabs (12 currently, including the three hosts). Let's
    aim at three groups of 6, top 4 qualifying. 18 teams total. Bring in the
    top four sides of each confederation, by FIFA ranking (or other metric). Currently, these would be Argentina, Brasil, Colombia and Uruguay for
    Conmebol and Mexico, United States, Canada and Panama for Concacaf.

    So, we'd have 10 spots available in the final round. For the preliminary round, let's divide the rest of the teams in three groups, one from
    South America (6 teams), another from Central America (6 teams) and
    another from the Caribbean (25 I think?). Give three spots in the final
    round for each and let them fight out for the last one in a repechage.

    Say that the survivors of this pre-qualifying round are Paraguay, Chile, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, Jamaica, Haiti and T&T.
    Venezuela beats Suriname and Guatemala for the last spot. We may get
    groups like these (sorted by FIFA ranking)

    A - Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Chile, El Salvador
    B - Brasil, United States, Canada, Paraguay, Honduras, Haiti
    C - Mexico, Uruguay, Panama, Venezuela, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago

    With the top four going to the World Cup it still looks very easy for
    the top sides, but I guess that can't really be helped? There's more
    travel involved, but less games too. Well, it's an attempt.


    Best regards,

    Ll|-o
    --- Synchronet 3.21a-Linux NewsLink 1.2
  • From Mark@Pammiesheart@yahoo.co.uk to rec.sport.soccer on Thu Sep 11 15:01:47 2025
    From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

    Mark wrote:

    Ll|-o wrote:

    Next round to be played on September 9th. In brackets below, the
    results of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin ones so
    far):

    Ecuador - Argentina (1-1, 1-3, 1-1, 2-0, 2-0, 0-2, 2-0). Matchday 1:
    ARG 1-0 ECU

    Mostly a friendly, given that the two sides are already through.
    Ecuador won't even bother to try to use the altitude against
    Argentina, holding this game at Estadio Monumental de Guayaquil
    instead. I figure they may want to finish on a high note, but then,
    so does Argentina? Up for grabs, I'd say, I'll call an 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Ecuador 0.35, draw 0.35, Argentina 0.30).

    I'll go for a 1-1 draw; no I won't, I say 1-2.

    Lleo 30 points
    Mark 0

    Peru - Paraguay (2-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 4-1, 2-0, 1-0). Matchday 1: PAR
    0-0 PER

    Peru basically plays here to leave the last position in the hands of
    their beloved southern rivals, while Paraguay is already over the
    line. Not sure what to call here either: on one hand, even when
    Paraguay were on their golden generation, they always struggled in
    Lima. If I went a further four years back in the above score list,
    there appears a certain 2-2 which kept Paraguay from qualifying to
    the interconfederational playoffs instead of Argentina, who on the
    same day suffered that famous 0-5 walloping in the hands of
    Colombia. On the other hand, this Peruvian team is really that
    bad. I'll make it an uninteresting 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Peru
    0.35, draw 0.35, Paraguay 0.30).

    1-1

    Lleo 30
    Mark 30

    Venezuela - Colombia (0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 2-2, 0-2). Matchday
    1: COL 1-0 VEN

    I don't think Venezuela has ever been that close to... well, not
    qualifying to the Cup itself, but at least making the
    interconfederational playoffs! This is THE big game for them, and of
    course it had to be a derby. Colombia has nothing to play for, and
    I'm not sure how deep their rivalry goes, so I don't know if it'll
    be a factor. But the Vinotinto needs a win to be certain to make the playoffs. I hope they get it, so I'll call a close and tense 1-0 win
    for them at Estadio Monumental de Matur|!n (in soph-terms: Venezuela
    0.40, draw 0.35, Colombia 0.25).

    1-0

    Lleo 0
    Mark 0

    Bolivia - Brasil (0-4, 0-0, n/a, 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, n/a). Matchday 1:
    BRA 5-1 BOL

    Going a further four years back we find a 2-0 win that was Brasil's
    first ever WCQ loss. Though Brasil tends to struggle in the altitude
    and has nothing to play for, in the last two cycles, not even the
    altitude of La Paz was enough for Bolivia to put up a game (the 0-0
    draw in 2017 was due to Carlos Lampe putting out a world class
    performance to stop Brasil). The hosts, though, have a lot to play
    for this time, as they need a win to make it to the
    interconfederational playoffs: a draw would only be enough if
    Venezuela loses by 12 goals to Colombia, which I'd call a low
    probability event. On this cycle Bolivia still haven't lost at
    Estadio Municipal de El Alto (4 km above sea level), but the gulf
    between the two sides is immense... Well, up for grabs I guess, and
    Carlo Ancelotti's welcome to the South American altitude too, I'll
    call it a 1-1 draw, with all the edge to the hosts though (in
    soph-terms: Bolivia 0.50, draw 0.30, Brasil 0.20).

    1-2 (I can't make all my predictions the same as Lleo's can I?)

    Lleo 30
    Mark 0

    Perhaps I should make all my predictions the same as Lleo's after all.

    Chile - Uruguay (0-2, 3-1, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0). Matchday 1: URU
    3-1 CHI

    Another game where the only thing at stake is Chile trying to save
    some face in front of their fans and avoiding the last position.
    Uruguay is the much better side, but have nothing to play for. Again
    I have no idea what to predict, and again I'll go with an 1-1 draw
    (in soph-terms: Chile 0.30, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.35).

    0-3 (If Uruguay can beat Argentina 2-0 away, they can beat Chile 3-0.
    And yes Uruguay have nothing to play for this time but nor do Chile.)

    Lleo 90
    Mark 0

    Totals:

    Lleo 180
    Mark 30

    Did the fact that so many teams had nothing to play for make this round
    more unpredictable?
    --- Synchronet 3.21a-Linux NewsLink 1.2