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Second-to-last round for this very much non-rocking Conmebol
qualifying cycle, and one without any surprises really. Colombia,
Uruguay and Paraguay clinch the last three automatic spots, as they
were very likely to, and only the playoff spot is still up for grabs,
which will fall in either Venezuela's or Bolivia's hands - and both
play at home in the last round.
Uruguay 3-0 Peru
Easy enough win for Uruguay at Estadio Centen|irio, in Montevideo.
Goals by Rodrigo Aguirre (13'), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (57') and
Federico Vi|#as (79') clinched a WC spot which was basically in La
Celeste's hands already. Peru needed a miracle to even try to reach
the playoff spot, well, that is over now and they are officially out
of contention.
Colombia 3-0 Bolivia
Colombia does its homework without much of a scare at Estadio
Metropolitano de Barranquilla. James Rodr|!guez (30'), Jhon C||rdoba
(73') and Juan Quintero (82') earned the hosts their first win after
six games and booked their places on North America'2026. Bolivia,
with one win and eight losses out of nine away games (still a better performance than Venezuela, Peru and Chile on that particular table),
still has the playoff spot within reach.
Paraguay 0-0 Ecuador
Honours split even at Estadio Defensores del Chaco, in Asunci||n, as
Paraguay and Ecuador play a not very rocking 0-0 draw that was enough
to bring the hosts back to the World Cup after 15 years. Ecuador was
already over the line.
Argentina 3-0 Venezuela
This game might have been the last official game of Lionel Messi for
the national team in Argentinian territory, and he duly decided to
deliver a performance up to the occasion. He scored twice (38' and
79'), and another goal by Lautaro Mart|!nez (75') finished off the
hopeless Vinotinto at a packed Estadio Monumental de Nu|#ez, in Buenos
Aires. Argentina has long qualified and ensured its spot at the top
of the table, while Venezuela still hangs on to the playoff spot.
Brasil 3-0 Chile
The only truly meaningless game of the round, since Brasil had
already clinched a spot and Chile is already out of contention, only
playing to avoid last place. Brasil largely dominated affairs at
Maracan|u, in Rio de Janeiro, and Estev|uo scored his first ever goal
for Brasil in the 37th minute. Paquet|i, now free from his
betting-related problems with the English FA, returned to the team as
well and, 40 seconds after being subbed in, finished a very nice move
by Luiz Henrique for the 2-0, in the 71th minute. Luiz Henrique also
made the play of the third goal, in the 75th minute, but the ball hit
the bar and Bruno Guimar|ues pushed it over the line.
Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd, (mi = media inglese)]
1 Argentina 38 17 12 2 3 31-9 22+ (mi = +3)
2 Brasil 28 17 8 4 5 24-16 8+ (mi = -7)
3 Uruguay 27 17 7 6 4 22-12 10+ (mi = -8)
4 Ecuador 26 17 7 8 2 13-5 8+ (mi = -4) (-3 points
penalty) 5 Colombia 25 17 6 7 4 22-15 7+ (mi =-10)
6 Paraguay 25 17 6 7 4 13-10 3+ (mi =-10) ----------------------------- --------------------
7 Venezuela 18 17 4 6 7 15-22 7- (mi =-15) ----------------------------- --------------------
8 Bolivia 17 17 5 2 10 16-35 19- (mi =-16)
9 Peru 12 17 2 6 9 6-20 14- (mi =-21)
10 Chile 10 17 2 4 11 9-27 18- (mi =-23)
Looking at the above table, how much more rocking things would have
been in the old 32-team World Cup, with 4.5 spots for Conmebol? Maybe
not that much, seeing as four of the five games of Round 18 would
involve already eliminated teams, with Ecuador having drawn the short
stick and having to face Argentina (although at home...). But still,
things would have been wide open, with only one of the automatic
spots already clinched and the ghost of 6th place haunting the five contestants over every game of the round. I know I sound like a
broken record by now, but let's again thank FIFA for making the
qualifying round a pointless exercise, and Conmebol for having picked
a format with 90 games to weed out only three teams.
(though, to be fair with Conmebol, I don't think it's possible to
design a challenging and competitive qualifying round given the circumstances.)
Next round to be played on September 9th. In brackets below, the
results of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin ones so far):
Ecuador - Argentina (1-1, 1-3, 1-1, 2-0, 2-0, 0-2, 2-0). Matchday 1:
ARG 1-0 ECU
Mostly a friendly, given that the two sides are already through.
Ecuador won't even bother to try to use the altitude against
Argentina, holding this game at Estadio Monumental de Guayaquil
instead. I figure they may want to finish on a high note, but then,
so does Argentina? Up for grabs, I'd say, I'll call an 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Ecuador 0.35, draw 0.35, Argentina 0.30).
Peru - Paraguay (2-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 4-1, 2-0, 1-0). Matchday 1: PAR
0-0 PER
Peru basically plays here to leave the last position in the hands of
their beloved southern rivals, while Paraguay is already over the
line. Not sure what to call here either: on one hand, even when
Paraguay were on their golden generation, they always struggled in
Lima. If I went a further four years back in the above score list,
there appears a certain 2-2 which kept Paraguay from qualifying to
the interconfederational playoffs instead of Argentina, who on the
same day suffered that famous 0-5 walloping in the hands of Colombia.
On the other hand, this Peruvian team is really that bad. I'll make
it an uninteresting 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Peru 0.35, draw 0.35,
Paraguay 0.30).
Venezuela - Colombia (0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 2-2, 0-2). Matchday 1:
COL 1-0 VEN
I don't think Venezuela has ever been that close to... well, not
qualifying to the Cup itself, but at least making the
interconfederational playoffs! This is THE big game for them, and of
course it had to be a derby. Colombia has nothing to play for, and
I'm not sure how deep their rivalry goes, so I don't know if it'll be
a factor. But the Vinotinto needs a win to be certain to make the
playoffs. I hope they get it, so I'll call a close and tense 1-0 win
for them at Estadio Monumental de Matur|!n (in soph-terms: Venezuela
0.40, draw 0.35, Colombia 0.25).
Bolivia - Brasil (0-4, 0-0, n/a, 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, n/a). Matchday 1: BRA
5-1 BOL
Going a further four years back we find a 2-0 win that was Brasil's
first ever WCQ loss. Though Brasil tends to struggle in the altitude
and has nothing to play for, in the last two cycles, not even the
altitude of La Paz was enough for Bolivia to put up a game (the 0-0
draw in 2017 was due to Carlos Lampe putting out a world class
performance to stop Brasil). The hosts, though, have a lot to play
for this time, as they need a win to make it to the
interconfederational playoffs: a draw would only be enough if
Venezuela loses by 12 goals to Colombia, which I'd call a low
probability event. On this cycle Bolivia still haven't lost at
Estadio Municipal de El Alto (4 km above sea level), but the gulf
between the two sides is immense... Well, up for grabs I guess, and
Carlo Ancelotti's welcome to the South American altitude too, I'll
call it a 1-1 draw, with all the edge to the hosts though (in
soph-terms: Bolivia 0.50, draw 0.30, Brasil 0.20).
Chile - Uruguay (0-2, 3-1, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0). Matchday 1: URU
3-1 CHI
Another game where the only thing at stake is Chile trying to save
some face in front of their fans and avoiding the last position.
Uruguay is the much better side, but have nothing to play for. Again
I have no idea what to predict, and again I'll go with an 1-1 draw
(in soph-terms: Chile 0.30, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.35).
Best regards,
Ll|-o
Second-to-last round for this very much non-rocking Conmebol qualifying cycle, and one without any surprises really. Colombia, Uruguay and
Paraguay clinch the last three automatic spots, as they were very likely
to, and only the playoff spot is still up for grabs, which will fall in either Venezuela's or Bolivia's hands - and both play at home in the
last round.
Looking at the above table, how much more rocking things would have been
in the old 32-team World Cup, with 4.5 spots for Conmebol? Maybe not
that much, seeing as four of the five games of Round 18 would involve already eliminated teams, with Ecuador having drawn the short stick and having to face Argentina (although at home...). But still, things would
have been wide open, with only one of the automatic spots already
clinched and the ghost of 6th place haunting the five contestants over
every game of the round. I know I sound like a broken record by now, but let's again thank FIFA for making the qualifying round a pointless
exercise, and Conmebol for having picked a format with 90 games to weed
out only three teams.
(though, to be fair with Conmebol, I don't think it's possible to design
a challenging and competitive qualifying round given the circumstances.)
Next round to be played on September 9th. In brackets below, the results
of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998
(all the round robin ones so far):
On 2025-09-04 21:01, Ll|-o wrote:
Looking at the above table, how much more rocking things would have
been in the old 32-team World Cup, with 4.5 spots for Conmebol? Maybe
not that much, seeing as four of the five games of Round 18 would
involve already eliminated teams, with Ecuador having drawn the short
stick and having to face Argentina (although at home...). But still,
things would have been wide open, with only one of the automatic spots
already clinched and the ghost of 6th place haunting the five
contestants over every game of the round. I know I sound like a broken
record by now, but let's again thank FIFA for making the qualifying
round a pointless exercise, and Conmebol for having picked a format
with 90 games to weed out only three teams.
(though, to be fair with Conmebol, I don't think it's possible to
design a challenging and competitive qualifying round given the
circumstances.)
Has any thought ever been given to including Suriname and Guyana in
CONMEBOL and thus increasing the pool to 12 teams?-a Two groups of six
would make sense in that context.
Suriname have been improving, but I don't think they would challenge for even a playoff spot yet.-a Guyana would struggle, but at least they would get more games against strong opposition.
Ll|-o wrote:
Next round to be played on September 9th. In brackets below, the
results of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin ones so
far):
Ecuador - Argentina (1-1, 1-3, 1-1, 2-0, 2-0, 0-2, 2-0). Matchday 1:
ARG 1-0 ECU
Mostly a friendly, given that the two sides are already through.
Ecuador won't even bother to try to use the altitude against
Argentina, holding this game at Estadio Monumental de Guayaquil
instead. I figure they may want to finish on a high note, but then,
so does Argentina? Up for grabs, I'd say, I'll call an 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Ecuador 0.35, draw 0.35, Argentina 0.30).
I'll go for a 1-1 draw; no I won't, I say 1-2.
Peru - Paraguay (2-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 4-1, 2-0, 1-0). Matchday 1: PAR
0-0 PER
Peru basically plays here to leave the last position in the hands of
their beloved southern rivals, while Paraguay is already over the
line. Not sure what to call here either: on one hand, even when
Paraguay were on their golden generation, they always struggled in
Lima. If I went a further four years back in the above score list,
there appears a certain 2-2 which kept Paraguay from qualifying to
the interconfederational playoffs instead of Argentina, who on the
same day suffered that famous 0-5 walloping in the hands of
Colombia. On the other hand, this Peruvian team is really that
bad. I'll make it an uninteresting 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Peru
0.35, draw 0.35, Paraguay 0.30).
1-1
Venezuela - Colombia (0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 2-2, 0-2). Matchday
1: COL 1-0 VEN
I don't think Venezuela has ever been that close to... well, not
qualifying to the Cup itself, but at least making the
interconfederational playoffs! This is THE big game for them, and of
course it had to be a derby. Colombia has nothing to play for, and
I'm not sure how deep their rivalry goes, so I don't know if it'll
be a factor. But the Vinotinto needs a win to be certain to make the playoffs. I hope they get it, so I'll call a close and tense 1-0 win
for them at Estadio Monumental de Matur|!n (in soph-terms: Venezuela
0.40, draw 0.35, Colombia 0.25).
1-0
Bolivia - Brasil (0-4, 0-0, n/a, 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, n/a). Matchday 1:
BRA 5-1 BOL
Going a further four years back we find a 2-0 win that was Brasil's
first ever WCQ loss. Though Brasil tends to struggle in the altitude
and has nothing to play for, in the last two cycles, not even the
altitude of La Paz was enough for Bolivia to put up a game (the 0-0
draw in 2017 was due to Carlos Lampe putting out a world class
performance to stop Brasil). The hosts, though, have a lot to play
for this time, as they need a win to make it to the
interconfederational playoffs: a draw would only be enough if
Venezuela loses by 12 goals to Colombia, which I'd call a low
probability event. On this cycle Bolivia still haven't lost at
Estadio Municipal de El Alto (4 km above sea level), but the gulf
between the two sides is immense... Well, up for grabs I guess, and
Carlo Ancelotti's welcome to the South American altitude too, I'll
call it a 1-1 draw, with all the edge to the hosts though (in
soph-terms: Bolivia 0.50, draw 0.30, Brasil 0.20).
1-2 (I can't make all my predictions the same as Lleo's can I?)
Chile - Uruguay (0-2, 3-1, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0). Matchday 1: URU
3-1 CHI
Another game where the only thing at stake is Chile trying to save
some face in front of their fans and avoiding the last position.
Uruguay is the much better side, but have nothing to play for. Again
I have no idea what to predict, and again I'll go with an 1-1 draw
(in soph-terms: Chile 0.30, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.35).
0-3 (If Uruguay can beat Argentina 2-0 away, they can beat Chile 3-0.
And yes Uruguay have nothing to play for this time but nor do Chile.)