From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

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I have updated the ranking with the 2024-25 data: http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm

Many interesting stats there. Just an appetizer:
- Best Andrea V. cycle: 7th: 49 points
- Best Daniele cycle: 7th: 37 points

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Cheers
milivella
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

I've also updated the graphs depicting the evolution of the ranking: http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/rankingsevolution.htm

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Cheers
milivella
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

The 2024-25 season - Cycle 3

The first 2 cycles have been settled some time ago, so let's start the
review of the 2024-25 season with cycle 3.

...Well, the first 2 cycles have been settled some time ago, *with one exception*. This season, an automatic review of the data found 2
previously uncounted caps of Michael H.'s cycle 1 players: 1 for Ozil,
and 1 for Javi Martinez. This was enough for Michael to leapfrog Daniele (actually, even just 1 cap would have been enough---Daniele and Michael
were *very* close in the ranking). Given that M&D's players have got no
cap this season, chances are this overtaking is definitive.

Daniele used to joke about Inter learning they had won the 2006 Italian
league via fax; I wonder what was it like for him to learn this way that
he had lost the cycle 1 podium...

Anyway, as I was saying, let's start the seasonal review with cycle 3.

...But if I didn't mention that Andrea V. lost 12% chances of cycle 2
podium to Tom, I would tell the universe that I think that, Andrea V.'s chances still being 85%, the outcome of this race is still clear. And,
for some reason, I don't want to give that message to the cosmos. So let
me note that, if Depay scores 70 more points (or Isco's renaissance is a thing, or...), Tom can kick Andrea V. out of the podium.

OK, cycle 3. What matters here, since at least last year, is the race
for the podium between Binder and Nigel.

A bit of history: Nigel outscored Binder for six consecutive reasons
from 2017-18 to 2022-23, with the result that Binder's 87-point lead
over Nigel vanished. At the end of 2022-23, Nigel actually had 1 point
more than Binder! It was easy to predict that, given B&N's pace, N would
have been far ahead of B by now. Indeed the automatic prediction had
Nigel at 80% chances to finish on the podium vs. Binder's 1%.

And yet... Binder is now 9 points ahead of Nigel (and the automatic
prediction can't tell which of the two has better chances).

What happened? The main fact is arguably that Nigel's Ake, Coman and
Stones lost their frequent-player status.
Points per NT match in the last 3 season:
* Ake: 1.18 to 0.81 to 0.31
* Coman: 0.69 to 0.62 to 0.20
* Stones: 0.82 to 0.71 to 0.50 (2024-25 season plagued by injuries)

The only important change in the performance of Binder's players in this timeframe was Tah becoming a starter for Germany in 2023-24.

So we have the 3rd and 4th scout in the ranking very close to each
other, with not-so-different scoring rates (points per international
round this season: Binder 1.70 vs. Nigel 1.30) and currently-scoring
players of similar ages (Binder: Tah 29, Can 31, Morata [1] 32; Nigel:
Coman 29, Ake 30, Stones 31). The race is on, and performances at the
World Cup could be crucial.

[1] Morata has talked about quitting the national team, but I don't
think anything is set in stone for the time being.

Tag: fs-commenting-the-season

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Cheers
milivella
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

When an Eggestein transfer prompts a reddit-thread on the subject of
failed talents: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bundesliga/comments/1m79ki6/warum_schaffen_es_viel_versprechende_talente/

(the other Eggestein, though)
--- Synchronet 3.21a-Linux NewsLink 1.2

From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

The 2024-25 season - Cycle 4

Daniele is still the best: as in every season since 2016-17 (with the
only exception of 2022-23), the leader and sure winner of the cycle is
also the best seasonal performer.

Following Daniele in the seasonal ranking are the 2nd to 4th player in
the global ranking---i.e., Andrea V., Abubakr and Alberto... but in
reverse order!

Andrea V., who was the 2nd best performer last year, is 4th this year.
He scored 0.60 fewer points per round than last season, with Alberto
mirroring him with an improvement of 0.65 points per round.

Who are the players who determined these results and are presumably
crucial for the final outcome?
* Andrea V.:
* van Dijk (34 year old): great player, but unlikely to keep
playing for Netherlands after the World Cup.
* Non-starters like Dybala (31), who got some caps again, and
Gabriel Jesus (28) and Wendell (32), who scored less than in the
previous season---the former because of an injury (if not also for other causes).
* Abubakr:
* Mbappe (26): on the fast track to become the highest-scoring FS
player ever.
* Gerson (28): based on his great form for Flamengo, he became a
starter under Dorival Junionr. But now he moved to Zenit St. Petersburg
and Ancelotti replaced Dorival, so there is a big question mark over
Gerson's career in the NT (Ancelotti did not called him up for the
September round).
* Alberto:
* Kimmich (30): the dream of every scout. Becomes a starter for his
NT young (21), never skips a match.
* Ousmane Dembele (28): likely the next Ballon d'Or. He had an
on-again, off-again relationship with the NT (and with being disciplined/successful in general) for some time, but it looks like now
he is here to stay.

Summing up: Andrea V. has one aging player, Abubakr has one superstar in
his prime, Alberto has the most solid FS player ever and one of the most in-form player in the world in his prime. On the basis of this, I would
expect Alberto to perform better to Abubakr, who in turn will likely
score way more points than Andrea V. Again, this is exactly the opposite
order to the current ranking, but with the three of them being all
within 43 points of each other, I think that the runners-up will easily
pass Andrea V.

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Cheers
milivella
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

Jesper Lauridsen:

When an Eggestein transfer prompts a reddit-thread on the subject of
failed talents: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bundesliga/comments/1m79ki6/ warum_schaffen_es_viel_versprechende_talente/

(the other Eggestein, though)

Also picked in Fantasy Scout, though. As was Moukoko, on whome once
rested my hope to eternal glory. ;_;

Anyway. Of course the reason why Futbolmetrix's Eggestein is not
mentioned in that Reddit thread is that he was never a talent to begin with.

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Cheers
milivella
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

milivella:

The 2024-25 season - Cycle 3

I forgot these:

**Seasonal scores:**

17 Binder

17 Michael H.

13 Nigel

12 Daniele

... [2 scouts here]

6 Andrea V. and 2 more scouts


**Current ranking:**

+402 Andrea V.

+305 Daniele

+236 Binder

+225 Nigel

+195 Michael H.

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Cheers
milivella
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

The 2024-25 season - Cycle 4

I forgot these:

**Seasonal scores:**

29 Daniele

23 Alberto

18 Abubakr

15 Andrea V.

**Current ranking:**

+415 Daniele

+147 Andrea V.

+133 Abubakr

+104 Alberto

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Cheers
milivella
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From Newsgroup: rec.sport.soccer

The 2024-25 season - Cycle 5

**Seasonal scores:**

41 Jackson

33 Michael H.

22 Andrea V.

19 Nigel

18 Alberto

17 Binder

**Current ranking:**

+319 Jackson

+276 Michael H.

+233 Alberto

+170 Binder

... [2 scouts here]

+067 Nigel

... [1 scout here]

+051 Andrea V.

Jackson confirms his lead with the best seasonal performance.

Behind him, there was a three-way race for the podium between Michael
H., Alberto and Binder.

Michael H. confirms his second place with the second-best seasonal performance.

What about Alberto and Binder? They both did poorly: Alberto had already slowed down, now Binder has too. They are 5th and 6th in the seasonal
ranking. So Michael no longer seems to have to fear the two behind him.

But those who did better than Alberto and Binder did only *slightly*
better, and are too far behind A&B. So The race for 3rd place is between Alberto and Binder (note that the latter is also in the cycle's 3 race
for the podium, and the former in cycle 4's).

What factor favors whom?

* Starting position: Alberto (+63 points in the standings).
* Age: Binder (Rodrygo 24, Havertz 26, Foden 25 vs. Davinson Sanchez 29,
De Ligt 25, Ederson 31, etc. for Alberto)
* Number of scoring players: Alberto (in addition to those already
mentioned, also Zapata and Wilmar Barrios; also, Joe Gomez, Borja and
Bergwijn scored points in 2023-24).
* Career certainty: none (I can see almost all the mentioned players
losing their place in the NT)

If I had to bet on one of them, I would say Binder, but it will be a
very close race.

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Cheers
milivella
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