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From the outset I had doubts that this Government would complete its
term. Now though I am optimistic it will make it to the 2026
election.
The reasons for this are that:
- Winston and NZ First have moderated their behaviour, partly because
they are 1 of 3 partners whereas in the past they have been 1 of 2, or
not in a coalition. Winston has learnt from his mistakes that lead to
the 2 terms where NZF was not in Parliament.
- ACT have tested the limits with their Treaty Principles Bill. This
was always going to test the Government not because of its merits or >otherwise but because it provided an over-riding focus to
Labour/Greens/Maori Party to irrational opposition. This Bill was
never going to be passed but opposition to it galvanised a
determination by the current Government to withstand the reaction.
- National have an inexperienced but moderate political leader.
However he is very experienced in leadership in the business world
where an ability to create business success from a management team
that has disparate views of success has been evident. Luxon has
always voluntarily moved on from business leadership roles including
his exit into politics.
All the opposition parties cannot match the calibre of MPs that
National and ACT have - being dominated by those who chose to become
an MP after careers in private employment. While both parties have
career MPs, they are few in number.
So the current Government is most likely to continue in office to the
next election. Given that the alternative is a
Labour/Watermelons/Maori Party Government it is my fervent hope that
National and ACT will form the next government with
confidence-and-supply from NZ First.
On Tue, 22 Jul 2025 20:38:14 +1200, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid>Believing in polls is a pointless exercise. They are rarely correct in the middle of a term and often wrong at all stages.
wrote:
From the outset I had doubts that this Government would complete its
term. Now though I am optimistic it will make it to the 2026
election.
The reasons for this are that:
- Winston and NZ First have moderated their behaviour, partly because
they are 1 of 3 partners whereas in the past they have been 1 of 2, or
not in a coalition. Winston has learnt from his mistakes that lead to
the 2 terms where NZF was not in Parliament.
- ACT have tested the limits with their Treaty Principles Bill. This
was always going to test the Government not because of its merits or >>otherwise but because it provided an over-riding focus to >>Labour/Greens/Maori Party to irrational opposition. This Bill was
never going to be passed but opposition to it galvanised a
determination by the current Government to withstand the reaction.
- National have an inexperienced but moderate political leader.
However he is very experienced in leadership in the business world
where an ability to create business success from a management team
that has disparate views of success has been evident. Luxon has
always voluntarily moved on from business leadership roles including
his exit into politics.
All the opposition parties cannot match the calibre of MPs that
National and ACT have - being dominated by those who chose to become
an MP after careers in private employment. While both parties have
career MPs, they are few in number.
So the current Government is most likely to continue in office to the
next election. Given that the alternative is a
Labour/Watermelons/Maori Party Government it is my fervent hope that >>National and ACT will form the next government with
confidence-and-supply from NZ First.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360765524/poll-suggests-national-headed-one-term-government
On Tue, 22 Jul 2025 20:38:14 +1200, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid>
wrote:
From the outset I had doubts that this Government would complete its
term. Now though I am optimistic it will make it to the 2026
election.
The reasons for this are that:
- Winston and NZ First have moderated their behaviour, partly because
they are 1 of 3 partners whereas in the past they have been 1 of 2, or
not in a coalition. Winston has learnt from his mistakes that lead to
the 2 terms where NZF was not in Parliament.
- ACT have tested the limits with their Treaty Principles Bill. This
was always going to test the Government not because of its merits or >>otherwise but because it provided an over-riding focus to >>Labour/Greens/Maori Party to irrational opposition. This Bill was
never going to be passed but opposition to it galvanised a
determination by the current Government to withstand the reaction.
- National have an inexperienced but moderate political leader.
However he is very experienced in leadership in the business world
where an ability to create business success from a management team
that has disparate views of success has been evident. Luxon has
always voluntarily moved on from business leadership roles including
his exit into politics.
All the opposition parties cannot match the calibre of MPs that
National and ACT have - being dominated by those who chose to become
an MP after careers in private employment. While both parties have
career MPs, they are few in number.
So the current Government is most likely to continue in office to the
next election. Given that the alternative is a
Labour/Watermelons/Maori Party Government it is my fervent hope that >>National and ACT will form the next government with
confidence-and-supply from NZ First.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360765524/poll-suggests-national-headed-one-term-government
... it is my fervent hope that
National and ACT will form the next government with
confidence-and-supply from NZ First.
On Tue, 22 Jul 2025, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:I hear you Willy but I don't think Luxon is silly enough to entertain
... it is my fervent hope that
National and ACT will form the next government with
confidence-and-supply from NZ First.
The key word being "fervent" -- a roundabout acknowledgement that NZF
is riding high in the polls and that current polls show *no chance*
that Nats & ACT can field the votes to form a government without NZF.
Why is NZF riding high? Because Luxon is such an enormous wimp.
The danger is that Luxon will prefer a coalition with Labour to
another one with ACT & NZF. That would tear the Nats in half. Don't
put it past him, that's how wet Luxon is.
On Wed, 23 Jul 2025 05:26:54 GMT, wn@nosuch.com (Willy Nilly) wrote:
On Tue, 22 Jul 2025, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> wrote:I hear you Willy but I don't think Luxon is silly enough to entertain
... it is my fervent hope that
National and ACT will form the next government with
confidence-and-supply from NZ First.
The key word being "fervent" -- a roundabout acknowledgement that NZF
is riding high in the polls and that current polls show *no chance*
that Nats & ACT can field the votes to form a government without NZF.
Why is NZF riding high? Because Luxon is such an enormous wimp.
The danger is that Luxon will prefer a coalition with Labour to
another one with ACT & NZF. That would tear the Nats in half. Don't
put it past him, that's how wet Luxon is.
the notion of a coalition with Labour. NZF have been dumped from
Parliament before and not because of a dominant National leader.
Equally Labour would only consider this if they are the dominant
player considering an alternative to coalition with the Maori Party
and possibly the Watermelons.
I think we can agree that National need to do more to ditch the
'Labour-lite' moniker.
Luxon is not the leader to do that - he
probably does not even recognise National have this issue.
On Tue, 22 Jul 2025 21:22:36 +1200, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com>
wrote:
On Tue, 22 Jul 2025 20:38:14 +1200, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid> >>wrote:
From the outset I had doubts that this Government would complete its >>>term. Now though I am optimistic it will make it to the 2026
election.
The reasons for this are that:
- Winston and NZ First have moderated their behaviour, partly because >>>they are 1 of 3 partners whereas in the past they have been 1 of 2, or >>>not in a coalition. Winston has learnt from his mistakes that lead to >>>the 2 terms where NZF was not in Parliament.
- ACT have tested the limits with their Treaty Principles Bill. This
was always going to test the Government not because of its merits or >>>otherwise but because it provided an over-riding focus to >>>Labour/Greens/Maori Party to irrational opposition. This Bill was
never going to be passed but opposition to it galvanised a
determination by the current Government to withstand the reaction.
- National have an inexperienced but moderate political leader.
However he is very experienced in leadership in the business world
where an ability to create business success from a management team
that has disparate views of success has been evident. Luxon has
always voluntarily moved on from business leadership roles including
his exit into politics.
All the opposition parties cannot match the calibre of MPs that
National and ACT have - being dominated by those who chose to become
an MP after careers in private employment. While both parties have >>>career MPs, they are few in number.
So the current Government is most likely to continue in office to the >>>next election. Given that the alternative is a
Labour/Watermelons/Maori Party Government it is my fervent hope that >>>National and ACT will form the next government with
confidence-and-supply from NZ First.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360765524/poll-suggests-national-headed-one-term-government
Rich you seem to have issues with comprehension. I was not commenting
in any way what the result of the next election might be. Read my
post again and try to understand the point I am making.
ACT are testing limits much more with the regulatory standards bill - >disliked by a large number of National supporters,
and detested by the legal profession and the public service;
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 16:20:31 +1200, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com>
wrote:
It is going the other way - a very Trumpian attempt to put all theACT are testing limits much more with the regulatory standards bill - >>disliked by a large number of National supporters,
Pushing back against the excesses of government. What's not to like?
and detested by the legal profession and the public service;
Good to see they are pissing off the right people.
Bill.
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 17:17:43 +1200, BR <blah@blah.blah> wrote:That is the worst and most transparent lie you have said in months.
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 16:20:31 +1200, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> >>wrote:It is going the other way - a very Trumpian attempt to put all the
ACT are testing limits much more with the regulatory standards bill - >>>disliked by a large number of National supporters,
Pushing back against the excesses of government. What's not to like?
power in one Minister, but also to dictate major policy changes
without having to go through Parliament. Very far-right atlas
policies.
Another laughable lie.and detested by the legal profession and the public service;
Good to see they are pissing off the right people.
Bill.
They are making an attempt to reduce participation in voting, too, but
I suspect that one will not go through - they are starting to have to
think about something that ma make ordinary people vote for them . . .
Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 17:17:43 +1200, BR <blah@blah.blah> wrote:That is the worst and most transparent lie you have said in months.
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 16:20:31 +1200, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> >>>wrote:It is going the other way - a very Trumpian attempt to put all the
ACT are testing limits much more with the regulatory standards bill - >>>>disliked by a large number of National supporters,
Pushing back against the excesses of government. What's not to like?
power in one Minister, but also to dictate major policy changes
without having to go through Parliament. Very far-right atlas
policies.
You must really haet this country very much.
and detested by the legal profession and the public service;
Good to see they are pissing off the right people.
Bill.
They are making an attempt to reduce participation in voting, too, but
I suspect that one will not go through - they are starting to have to
think about something that ma make ordinary people vote for them . . . >Another laughable lie.
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 08:22:46 -0000 (UTC), Tony
<lizandtony@orcon.net.nz> wrote:
Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 17:17:43 +1200, BR <blah@blah.blah> wrote:That is the worst and most transparent lie you have said in months.
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 16:20:31 +1200, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> >>>>wrote:It is going the other way - a very Trumpian attempt to put all the
ACT are testing limits much more with the regulatory standards bill - >>>>>disliked by a large number of National supporters,
Pushing back against the excesses of government. What's not to like?
power in one Minister, but also to dictate major policy changes
without having to go through Parliament. Very far-right atlas
policies.
You must really haet this country very much.
I would not go that far Tony but Rich is becoming far more fanatical
in his posts, to the point where engagement in debate is futile.
and detested by the legal profession and the public service;
Good to see they are pissing off the right people.
Bill.
They are making an attempt to reduce participation in voting, too, but
I suspect that one will not go through - they are starting to have to >>>think about something that ma make ordinary people vote for them . . . >>Another laughable lie.
Correct. Closing the electoral rolls prior to a general election
makes sense and requires only that those who need to enroll or change >electorates simply do so before the rolls close.
Clearly when enrolling for the first time there is a significant >administrative effort to ensure the validity of the enrollment. If
changing electorates the administrative effort is less but it is still
there. Both can be done anytime and outside the election cycles for
central and local government. The only people disadvantaged by these
changes are those that do not get organised as they should.
On Tue, 29 Jul 2025 09:17:40 +1200, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid>
wrote:
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 08:22:46 -0000 (UTC), Tony
<lizandtony@orcon.net.nz> wrote:
Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 17:17:43 +1200, BR <blah@blah.blah> wrote:That is the worst and most transparent lie you have said in months.
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 16:20:31 +1200, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> >>>>>wrote:without having to go through Parliament. Very far-right atlas
ACT are testing limits much more with the regulatory standards bill - >>>>>>disliked by a large number of National supporters,
Pushing back against the excesses of government. What's not to like? >>>>It is going the other way - a very Trumpian attempt to put all the >>>>power in one Minister, but also to dictate major policy changes
policies.
You must really haet this country very much.
I would not go that far Tony but Rich is becoming far more fanatical
in his posts, to the point where engagement in debate is futile.
and detested by the legal profession and the public service;
Good to see they are pissing off the right people.
Bill.
They are making an attempt to reduce participation in voting, too, but >>>>I suspect that one will not go through - they are starting to have to >>>>think about something that ma make ordinary people vote for them . . . >>>Another laughable lie.
Correct. Closing the electoral rolls prior to a general election
makes sense and requires only that those who need to enroll or change >>electorates simply do so before the rolls close.
Clearly when enrolling for the first time there is a significant >>administrative effort to ensure the validity of the enrollment. If >>changing electorates the administrative effort is less but it is still >>there. Both can be done anytime and outside the election cycles for >>central and local government. The only people disadvantaged by these >>changes are those that do not get organised as they should.
To get back to the Subject of the thread, it is sad that the
government appears to believe that they need to exclude around 100,000
from voting due to not being sufficiently 'organised', to make the
survival of the coalition government "likely". Not all of those votes
would have been for the current opposition parties - it does indicate
that they - or at least Seymour and Peters are running a bit more
scared than they used to be. There is very little administrative
effort in ensuring validity of enrolments, but with the timing of
elections there are often families and students that are in the
process of moving before Christmas.
On Tue, 29 Jul 2025 09:17:40 +1200, Crash <nogood@dontbother.invalid>Off topic.
wrote:
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 08:22:46 -0000 (UTC), Tony
<lizandtony@orcon.net.nz> wrote:
Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 17:17:43 +1200, BR <blah@blah.blah> wrote:That is the worst and most transparent lie you have said in months.
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 16:20:31 +1200, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> >>>>>wrote:without having to go through Parliament. Very far-right atlas
ACT are testing limits much more with the regulatory standards bill - >>>>>>disliked by a large number of National supporters,
Pushing back against the excesses of government. What's not to like? >>>>It is going the other way - a very Trumpian attempt to put all the >>>>power in one Minister, but also to dictate major policy changes
policies.
You must really haet this country very much.
I would not go that far Tony but Rich is becoming far more fanatical
in his posts, to the point where engagement in debate is futile.
and detested by the legal profession and the public service;
Good to see they are pissing off the right people.
Bill.
They are making an attempt to reduce participation in voting, too, but >>>>I suspect that one will not go through - they are starting to have to >>>>think about something that ma make ordinary people vote for them . . . >>>Another laughable lie.
Correct. Closing the electoral rolls prior to a general election
makes sense and requires only that those who need to enroll or change >>electorates simply do so before the rolls close.
Clearly when enrolling for the first time there is a significant >>administrative effort to ensure the validity of the enrollment. If >>changing electorates the administrative effort is less but it is still >>there. Both can be done anytime and outside the election cycles for >>central and local government. The only people disadvantaged by these >>changes are those that do not get organised as they should.
To get back to the Subject of the thread, it is sad that the
government appears to believe that they need to exclude around 100,000
from voting due to not being sufficiently 'organised', to make the
survival of the coalition government "likely". Not all of those votes
would have been for the current opposition parties - it does indicate
that they - or at least Seymour and Peters are running a bit more
scared than they used to be. There is very little administrative
effort in ensuring validity of enrolments, but with the timing of
elections there are often families and students that are in the
process of moving before Christmas.
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 08:22:46 -0000 (UTC), TonyI was being kind Crash!!!
<lizandtony@orcon.net.nz> wrote:
Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> wrote:
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 17:17:43 +1200, BR <blah@blah.blah> wrote:That is the worst and most transparent lie you have said in months.
On Mon, 28 Jul 2025 16:20:31 +1200, Rich80105 <Rich80105@hotmail.com> >>>>wrote:It is going the other way - a very Trumpian attempt to put all the
ACT are testing limits much more with the regulatory standards bill - >>>>>disliked by a large number of National supporters,
Pushing back against the excesses of government. What's not to like?
power in one Minister, but also to dictate major policy changes
without having to go through Parliament. Very far-right atlas
policies.
You must really haet this country very much.
I would not go that far Tony
but Rich is becoming far more fanaticalI suspect the combination of old age, poor intellect, low morality and years of
in his posts, to the point where engagement in debate is futile.
and detested by the legal profession and the public service;
Good to see they are pissing off the right people.
Bill.
They are making an attempt to reduce participation in voting, too, but
I suspect that one will not go through - they are starting to have to >>>think about something that ma make ordinary people vote for them . . . >>Another laughable lie.
Correct. Closing the electoral rolls prior to a general election
makes sense and requires only that those who need to enroll or change >electorates simply do so before the rolls close.
Clearly when enrolling for the first time there is a significant >administrative effort to ensure the validity of the enrollment. If
changing electorates the administrative effort is less but it is still
there. Both can be done anytime and outside the election cycles for
central and local government. The only people disadvantaged by these
changes are those that do not get organised as they should.
--
Crash McBash
To get back to the Subject of the thread, it is sad that the
government appears to believe that they need to exclude around 100,000
from voting due to not being sufficiently 'organised', to make the
survival of the coalition government "likely".