• Re: UCL 24

    From Binder Dundat@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Wed Nov 6 08:08:05 2024
    On 2024-11-05 8:49 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    On 2024-11-05 5:38 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    On 2024-11-05 5:04 p.m., Binder Dundat wrote:
    On 2024-11-05 3:08 p.m., Blueshirt wrote:
    Blueshirt wrote:

    Binder Dundat wrote:

    Also if you are watching this game you can see they
    should no longer allow Englishmen to ref football matches.

    José Mourinho called, he said have you seen the standard of
    refereeing in Turkey? He said a lot more but I wouldn't dream
    of upsetting any Turks by repeating his comments...


    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-a
    t-var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking
    -t irade/a466067120.html

    Now... he wants to come back to the Premier League.

    If he bides his time I'm sure a vacancy at the London Dodgers
    will come along soon...

    [Corrected link]

    https://m.independent.ie/sport/soccer/watch-jose-mourinho-rants-at-
    var-and-smelly-turkish-league-that-nobody-watches-in-shocking-
    tirade/ a466067120.html


    Florian Wirtz has to leave the Pretenders right away.

    he does

    But wait Man City lost to the guy who is the greatest amanger in the
    history og football. That no one has ever heard of

    Elsewhere, That new Porto coach who coaches Sporting Lisobon beat
    that bald guy coach who coaches Man City.

    Oh and Jon David scored again to nake him the greatest Striker in
    American history



    If you did not think that WWEpl and club football is totally pre
    scripted, the Man City vs Sporting result should prove to you that it
    is.  SO now the new guy is this Portugoose guy no one has ever heard
    of.. All hail our new leder...whatever your name is


    In other pre scripted results, we are Projecting Donald J to win the USA election. What is the deal in the USA? Can women still not vote there?

    Meanwhile all Bundesliga clubs are proving to be Pretenders and we are projecting all of them to be eliminated in this round

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  • From Blueshirt@21:1/5 to Binder Dundat on Wed Nov 6 13:16:46 2024
    Binder Dundat wrote:


    In other pre scripted results, we are Projecting Donald J to
    win the USA election.

    There's an election going on over there? It seems like it was a
    cakewalk that was taking place.

    What is the deal in the USA? Can women still
    not vote there?

    They did vote... they voted for Donald Trump!

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  • From MH@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Tue Dec 10 13:14:18 2024
    On 2024-09-22 17:50, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wed, 18 Sep 2024 7:22:47 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

    MH <MHnospam@ucalgary.ca> wrote:
    On 2024-09-17 15:04, Werner Pichler wrote:
    On 17.09.2024 22:04, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tue, 17 Sep 2024 18:37:32 +0000, Binder Dundat wrote:

    Early results suggest we will see a Juve vs Aston Villa final, but >>>>>> there
    still are about 800 games to go.

    New UCL format is great!

    4.67 goals per match so far.

    Might we see more big teams going pedal to the metal for 90
    minutes because of the new system?

    COuld be, but I am having trouble wrapping my mind around what kind of
    points totals will be needed to qualify for each echelon.
    Would 5 wins be enough to in the top 8 (and three losses)?
    Presumably winning all your home games would get you at least in the top >>> 24, if not in the top 16 ?


    https://x.com/fmeetsdata/status/1835064336508698685

    I'm getting the following:

    <=6 points: qualification probability  0%
    7 points:  0.3%
    8 points:  8.9%
    9 points: 51.1%
    10 points: 92.6%
    11 points: 99.9%
    12+ points: 100%

    Are those values still holding up after 5 (in some cases six already)
    rounds ?


    Top 8 probabilities:
    <= 12 points:  0%
    13 points: 0.4%
    14 points: 11.7%
    15 points: 50.4%
    16 points: 88.8%
    17 points: 99.3%
    18 points: 99.9%

    liverpool are there already.

    19 points: 100%

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Tue Dec 10 20:50:32 2024
    On Tue, 10 Dec 2024 20:14:18 +0000, MH wrote:


    I'm getting the following:

    <=6 points: qualification probability  0%
    7 points:  0.3%
    8 points:  8.9%
    9 points: 51.1%
    10 points: 92.6%
    11 points: 99.9%
    12+ points: 100%

    Are those values still holding up after 5 (in some cases six already)
    rounds ?

    I'll look into this.

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to Werner Pichler on Wed Dec 11 22:40:53 2024
    On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 8:29:26 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

    I'm getting the following:

    <=6 points: qualification probability  0%
    7 points:  0.3%
    8 points:  8.9%
    9 points: 51.1%
    10 points: 92.6%
    11 points: 99.9%
    12+ points: 100%

    Are those values still holding up after 5 (in some cases six already)
    rounds ?

    I believe the unexpectedly low number of draws has shifted the
    qualification threshold to 10 points.


    Yes, after the end of MD6, I'm getting the following numbers:

    <=7 points: qualification probability  0%
    8 points:  2.1%
    9 points: 24.3%
    10 points: 78.2%
    11 points: 98.9%
    12 points: 99.9%
    13+: 100%

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 12 00:07:43 2024
    On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 23:59:55 +0000, MH wrote:

    On 2024-12-11 15:40, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    <=7 points: qualification probability  0%
    8 points:  2.1%
    9 points: 24.3%
    10 points: 78.2%
    11 points: 98.9%
    12 points: 99.9%
    13+: 100%

    Out of curiosity, how do you calculate this ? Just normal odds of wins
    and draws at home and away, simulated many times, or is the strength of
    the teams also factored in.

    The same way I generate the SophCon predictions for the bots. The
    probabilities above are based on ClubElo ratings at the beginning of the campaign. With those in hand, you can simulate the outcomes of every
    match (not just W-D-L, but actual scores), do that 10,000 times, and
    then look at the number of times that a team that finishes on N points
    finishes in the top 24 or not.

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  • From MH@21:1/5 to Futbolmetrix on Wed Dec 11 16:59:55 2024
    On 2024-12-11 15:40, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 8:29:26 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

    I'm getting the following:

    <=6 points: qualification probability  0%
    7 points:  0.3%
    8 points:  8.9%
    9 points: 51.1%
    10 points: 92.6%
    11 points: 99.9%
    12+ points: 100%

    Are those values still holding up after 5 (in some cases six already)
    rounds ?

    I believe the unexpectedly low number of draws has shifted the
    qualification threshold to 10 points.


    Yes, after the end of MD6, I'm getting the following numbers:

    <=7 points: qualification probability  0%
    8 points:  2.1%
    9 points: 24.3%
    10 points: 78.2%
    11 points: 98.9%
    12 points: 99.9%
    13+: 100%

    Out of curiosity, how do you calculate this ? Just normal odds of wins
    and draws at home and away, simulated many times, or is the strength of
    the teams also factored in.

    Anyway, with the above, Bologna (alas) are out, as are the teams on zero
    (none of them particularly expected to do well except RBL), and Girona,
    Graz, Salzburg and REd Star are looking at very long odds. 8 teams on
    13 or more can breathe relatively easily.

    The contrasting fortunes of Aston Villa and Brest, on the one hand, and Stuttgart, Bologna, and Girona on the other (all teams I don't think
    many expected to qualify for the CL in 2023-2024) are interesting. How
    much of this was the draw, do you think? With the old format all would
    have been in the bottom pot, i suspect, with not too much chance of
    finishing higher than 3rd.

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  • From Futbolmetrix@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 12 02:37:08 2024
    On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 23:59:55 +0000, MH wrote:


    Anyway, with the above, Bologna (alas) are out, as are the teams on zero (none of them particularly expected to do well except RBL), and Girona,
    Graz, Salzburg and REd Star are looking at very long odds. 8 teams on
    13 or more can breathe relatively easily.

    My sims say that Bologna still has a 0.0004 chance of making it to the
    next round, the team with the lowest probability of those still with a theoretical chance.


    The contrasting fortunes of Aston Villa and Brest, on the one hand, and Stuttgart, Bologna, and Girona on the other (all teams I don't think
    many expected to qualify for the CL in 2023-2024) are interesting. How
    much of this was the draw, do you think? With the old format all would
    have been in the bottom pot, i suspect, with not too much chance of
    finishing higher than 3rd.

    Hard to say. Some teams had a tough draw and have in fact underperformed
    (PSG, Real Madrid), but others (Liverpool, for example) have done well
    despite the thought draw.

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