On Fri, 6 Dec 2024 21:53:27 +0000, Lléo wrote:

14 Atlético Mineiro 44 (10 wins, GD -8) -----------------------------------------
15 Fluminense 43 (11 wins, GD -7)
16 Ath. Paranaense 42 (11 wins, GD -5) -----------------------------------------
17 RB Bragantino 41 ( 9 wins, GD -8)

Betty Boop's SophCon predictions for relegation

Athletico PR 0.39
Bragantino 0.30
Fluminense 0.25
Atletico Mineiro 0.06

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On Fri, 6 Dec 2024 21:53:27 +0000, Lléo wrote:

Botafogo - São Paulo

Botafogo only needs a home draw to win the championship, which was last theirs in 1995, against a São Paulo side that has nothing to play for.
And even a loss may be enough, if Palmeiras doesn't win their game. It's
on their hands to celebrate this long awaited title in front of their
fans, at Estadio Nilton Santos, and exorcise once and for all any
remaining ghosts of 2023.

There's also the fact that Sao Paulo winning could mean their local
rivals are Champions.

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On Sun, 8 Dec 2024 18:34:59 +0000, Lléo wrote:

Betty Boop's SophCon predictions for relegation

Athletico PR  0.39
Bragantino   0.30
Fluminense   0.25
Atletico Mineiro 0.06

There are three games that influence this outcome. I ran the numbers
based on the odds of three betting sites to estimate the probabilities
of relegation of each club (checked today about one hour ago).
Interestingly, the numbers I found are pretty close to Betty Boop's.
Here's my entry, then:

Athletico-PR 0.379
Bragantino 0.323
Fluminense 0.244
Atlético-MG 0.054

What is Betty's algorithm, btw? I seem to remember it involves betting
odds (which would explain why our numbers are so close), but I don't
remember which one(s) she uses.

Yes, Betty (when she played in UPT) just chose the team with the better
bookie odds (I don't remember which site milivella used).

I calculated Betty's odds in the case above using the "team to be
relegated" odds which I found on a couple of websites, and then applied
a very quick and dirty transformation to remove the vig and make the probabilities add up to 1.

Not surprising that the odds based on my method and those based on the individual matches are so close, it's almost as if professionals in an
industry that tries to make money make sure that they don't get ripped
off by smart investors...

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On Sun, 8 Dec 2024 22:04:58 +0000, Werner Pichler wrote:

Betty Boop's SophCon predictions for relegation

Athletico PR  0.39
Bragantino   0.30
Fluminense   0.25
Atletico Mineiro 0.06

So Betty was once again correct.

Well, yes and no. A human SophCon player that had gone Athletico PR 0.9
would have destroyed Betty.

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