XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Jan 20 0136 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 - 19 January 2025

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate). High levels were observed on 17 Jan
following an M7.4 (R2) flare at 17/1335 UTC from Region 3964 (N06,
L=247, class/area=Dki/475 on 17 Jan). The region also produced ten
R1 (Minor) events over 17-19 Jan. Region 3961 (S09, L=181,
class/area=Eki/600) also produced an M1.1 (R1) flare at 17/0320 UTC.
All other active regions were either quiet to contributed only
C-class events. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Active
conditions were reached on 13 Jan, 15 Jan, 17 Jan, and 19 Jan.
Unsettled to quiet conditions were observed for the remainder of the
summary period. All elevations in geomagnetic activity were
attributed to influence from multiple, negative polarity CH HSSs.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 January - 15 February 2025

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for high levels of activity
(up to R3-Strong), throughout the outlook period. This potential is
driven primarily by Regions 3964 (N06, L=249, class/area=Dki/475 on
17 Jan) and 3961 (S09, L=181, class/area=Eki/600 on 17 Jan) on the
Earth-facing side of the Sun as well as multiple regions on the
Sun's farside that are due to rotated back onto the visible disk
later during the outlook period.

There is a slight chance for proton events of S1 or greater at
geosynchronous orbit due primarily to the flare potential from
Regions 3964 and 3961 over 20-28 Jan.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
likely to be at high levels on 02-05 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS
activity. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 31 Jan - 02
Feb, 11 Feb, and 13 Feb. Active conditions are likely on 20 Jan,
03-05 Feb, 10 Feb, 12 Feb, and 14-15 Feb. Unsettle levels are likely
over 21 Jan, 06 Feb, and 09 Feb. All elevations in geomagnetic
activity are anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The
remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet
levels.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)